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Pipe Dreamer
Sep 2, 2011

by Y Kant Ozma Post

Dreylad posted:

Because for some reason in North America it's become a politicized left/right issue. That hasn't really happened anywhere else.

It is in Australia as well, where our centre-left government has just passed a tax on carbon/emissions trading scheme amidst one of the most raucous and bitter political debates in years.

It’s a left right issue because it present a way for the left to hold capitalism to account for the damage it does and because the right see action on climate change as being government interference against the free market and the right of individuals to enjoy cheap energy.

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Pipe Dreamer
Sep 2, 2011

by Y Kant Ozma Post
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/dec/07/public-support-climate-change-declines

quote:

here has been dramatic decline over the past decade in the public's support for tackling climate change in Britain. Backing for higher green taxes and charges has waned and scepticism about the seriousness of the threat to the environment has increased.

The British Social Attitudes survey shows that in 2000 43% of the population would pay "much higher prices" for "the sake of the environment". Last summer support fell to just 26%, with the poorest sections of society most reluctant to save the planet with their cash.

Over the same period the public has become much more sceptical about the science behind climate change. In 2010 37% said many claims about environmental threats were "exaggerated", up from 24% in 2000.

Alison Park, research director of the survey, said that the two factors that loomed large in the public's mind appeared to be the financial crisis which made people much less likely to be able to sacrifice cash or taxes. She also said that "climategate" claims about the veracity of scientific claims in 2009 had also damaged the case of proponents of global warming theories.

On some questions the public is much less bothered because it thinks the issue has been dealt with. Only 28% regard air pollution from cars as "very" or "extremely" dangerous to the environment, down from 54% in 2000.

No doubt some of this is due to the denialists campaign, but I also think some of the proponents of climate change share this responsibility. Every time there’s a heat-wave we seem to see a lot of people blame it on global warming, and here in Australia the head climate scientist, Dr Tim Flannery, warned of our cities running out of water right before we were deluged with some of the heaviest rains in decades.

I’m also not surprised that opposition to action is stronger amongst the working class, who already suffer from job security issues in heavily carbon-emitting industries and are probably correct that it would be them who suffer from a reduction in carbon emissions rather than the wealthy.

Pipe Dreamer fucked around with this message at 00:09 on Dec 8, 2011

Pipe Dreamer
Sep 2, 2011

by Y Kant Ozma Post

Chantilly Say posted:

turn the tropics to barely habitable deserts, empty oceans of fish, and reduce the Earth's capacity to support human life to about a half-billion or so.

This seems awfully speculative, what are you basing this on?

Pipe Dreamer
Sep 2, 2011

by Y Kant Ozma Post
http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/tar/wg2/index.php?idp=434

quote:

Acute water shortage conditions combined with thermal stress should adversely affect wheat and, more severely, rice productivity in India even under the positive effects of elevated CO2 in the future.

I don't know, they seem to be doing alright at the moment?

Rice

http://www.farmchemicalsinternational.com/news/marketupdates/?storyid=3421

quote:

India is reaching records this year in many key agriculture areas… India has become the world’s largest producer of rice as a result of record production and the lifting of a three-year ban non-basmati rice exports.

And wheat:

http://www.blackseagrain.net/photo/india.-wheat-exports-to-more-than-double-in-2012-13-on-record-harvest

quote:

Wheat exports from India, the world’s second-biggest producer, is expected to more than double to 1.5 million tonnes in the 2012-13 marketing year on account of back-to-back record harvest, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) said in a report.

Pipe Dreamer
Sep 2, 2011

by Y Kant Ozma Post
I have a real problem with people asserting that "the science is settled" when it obviously isn't. Here is an example by a profesor at a prestigious University.

Professor Neville Nicholls, cliamte researcher at Monash, 2008

http://www.climatechange.gov.au/~/media/publications/science/weather-extremes.pdf

quote:

General increases in rainfall intensity (McInnes et al., 2002; Whetton et al., 2002; Walsh et al., 2001; Abbs, 2004; Abbs et al., 2006) but with considerable spatial variation…

Up to 20% more droughts over most of Australia by 2030 (Mpelesoka et al., submitted). Projected changes in the Palmer Drought Severity Index for the SRES A2 scenario indicate an increase over much of eastern Australia between 2000 and 2046.

Today

http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/politics/la-nina-brought-flooding-but-climate-change-not-off-the-hook-20120312-1uwdd.html#ixzz1owRN3UYJ

quote:

THE past two years have been Australia’s wettest two-year period since at least 1900…

Climate scientists have reasons to suspect that warmer ocean temperatures can lead to increased rainfall, and the strong ocean warming we have seen around Australia has indeed been matched by a trend to more rainfall across the country. Annual rainfall, averaged across Australia, has gradually increased by about 25 per cent since the start of the 20th century ... So it looks like global warming may be leading to a wetting trend across Australia, perhaps enhancing the heavy rains typically associated with La Nina events.

So in a couple of years he has gone from prediction drought as a result of climate change to increased rain and floods, and he's not the only one either. How can people talk of the science being settled when eminent scientists are undertaking massive reversals of predictions without acknowledging their errors?

Pipe Dreamer
Sep 2, 2011

by Y Kant Ozma Post

Ervin K posted:

The science is settled on the fact hat climate change is indeed happening, obviously not on how exactly it's happening and what sort of changes the world will go through - nobody has ever claimed that.

The problem is that eminent scientists were telling us that “we would never have dam-filling rains again”, leading to the building of wasteful desalinization plants while we suffer through some of the wettest weather on record.

It's a "boy who cried wolf" type thing.

Pipe Dreamer
Sep 2, 2011

by Y Kant Ozma Post

MickeyFinn posted:

Climate and weather aren't the same thing.

I know right! Which is why it was reckless of climate scientists to use our (temporary) drought to make dire predictions about our cities running out of water.

Pipe Dreamer
Sep 2, 2011

by Y Kant Ozma Post

a lovely poster posted:

Which predictions had Australia's major cities running out of water in 2012? Who is "climate scientists"?

Professor Tim Flannery is our government hired "Climate Commissioner" and Australian of the Year winner.

http://www.abc.net.au/landline/content/2006/s1844398.htm

quote:

We’re already seeing the initial impacts and they include a decline in the winter rainfall zone across southern Australia, which is clearly an impact of climate change, but also a decrease in run-off. Although we’re getting say a 20 per cent decrease in rainfall in some areas of Australia, that’s translating to a 60 per cent decrease in the run-off into the dams and rivers. That’s because the soil is warmer because of global warming and the plants are under more stress and therefore using more moisture. So even the rain that falls isn’t actually going to fill our dams and our river systems, and that’s a real worry for the people in the bush. If that trend continues then I think we’re going to have serious problems, particularly for irrigation.

http://www.earthfrenzyradio.net/2007/05/as-drought-worsens-australian-cattle.html

quote:

Brisbane and Adelaide – home to a combined total of three million people – could run out of water by year’s end;

and that the country was facing the most extreme and the most dangerous situation arising from climate change facing any country in the world right now.

Last summer Brisbane suffered a devastating flood, so completely wrong there.

http://www.science.org.au/nova/newscientist/105ns_001.htm

quote:

Over the past 50 years southern Australia has lost about 20 per cent of its rainfall, and one cause is almost certainly global warming. Similar losses have been experienced in eastern Australia, and although the science is less certain it is probable that global warming is behind these losses too. But by far the most dangerous trend is the decline in the flow of Australian rivers: it has fallen by around 70 per cent in recent decades, so dams no longer fill even when it does rain …

In Adelaide, Sydney and Brisbane, water supplies are so low they need desalinated water urgently, possibly in as little as 18 months.

Wrong, wrong, wrong, and scaremongering at it's worst. The Dams refilled and are now at record levels.

http://theextinctionprotocol.wordpress.com/2012/03/01/regions-of-australia-hit-with-record-rainfall/

quote:

Regions of Australia have been hit with the heaviest rainfall seen in 80 years. Sydney’s Warragamba Dam had reached 93 per cent capacity and was expected to spill for the first time in 14 years between 8pm and 10pm last night, flooding the Murrumbidgee, Hawkesbury and Nepean rivers. A deluge in Central Australia made a string of roads impassable, with the wet weather expected to continue until tomorrow. Some areas in Central Australia had had more than 100mm of rain in the past two days.

The point is that these predictions aroused a lot of unjustified fear in the community and resulted in wasteful, unnecessary spending on things like Desalinization plants. He is a big public figure in this country and his panicked predictions have discredited climate change advocacy for a lot of people.

These public figures should be more careful and circumspect in what they say rather than jumping to worse-case scenarios based on obviously flawed models and premises.

Pipe Dreamer fucked around with this message at 04:48 on Mar 13, 2012

Pipe Dreamer
Sep 2, 2011

by Y Kant Ozma Post
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304636404577291352882984274.html

quote:

What is happening to global temperatures in reality? The answer is: almost nothing for more than 10 years. Monthly values of the global temperature anomaly of the lower atmosphere, compiled at the University of Alabama from NASA satellite data, can be found at the website http://www.drroyspencer.com/latest-global-temperatures/. The latest (February 2012) monthly global temperature anomaly for the lower atmosphere was minus 0.12 degrees Celsius, slightly less than the average since the satellite record of temperatures began in 1979.

Is this true?

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Pipe Dreamer
Sep 2, 2011

by Y Kant Ozma Post
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/healthy-polar-bear-count-confounds-doomsayers/article2392523/

Good news!

quote:

The debate about climate change and its impact on polar bears has intensified with the release of a survey that shows the bear population in a key part of northern Canada is far larger than many scientists thought, and might be growing.

The number of bears along the western shore of Hudson Bay, believed to be among the most threatened bear subpopulations, stands at 1,013 and could be even higher, according to the results of an aerial survey released Wednesday by the Government of Nunavut. That’s 66 per cent higher than estimates by other researchers who forecasted the numbers would fall to as low as 610 because of warming temperatures that melt ice faster and ruin bears’ ability to hunt. The Hudson Bay region, which straddles Nunavut and Manitoba, is critical because it’s considered a bellwether for how polar bears are doing elsewhere in the Arctic.

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