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You know, there may be an upside to all this that we haven't considered. In the early Jurassic period, the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere was around 1800 ppm, about four and a half times higher than it is today. If we can push it up that high again, the dinosaurs might come back.
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# ¿ Dec 8, 2011 06:32 |
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# ¿ May 17, 2024 01:27 |
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VideoTapir posted:I'm sure it'll be a hell of a party in 5 or 10 million years when life has evolved to cope. Anyway, I'm kinda surprised stratospheric sulphates haven't gotten mentioned yet. Naïvely, I see it as a pretty attractive prospect for a civilization pathologically averse to meaningful cuts in carbon emissions. Strudel Man fucked around with this message at 10:02 on Dec 8, 2011 |
# ¿ Dec 8, 2011 09:41 |
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Deleuzionist posted:This must be very comforting to the yet-to-be methane breathing post-humans. Release of methane stored in the Arctic permafrost is dangerous because methane is a much stronger greenhouse gas than CO2, not because we're going to suddenly have a methane-dominant atmosphere. It isn't even a toxic gas, if that's what you're thinking. Biologically speaking, we could tolerate huge amounts of it just fine, as long as there was still sufficient oxygen in the air. Morose Man posted:First I'd like to address terminology. This phenomenon was called global warming until spin doctor Frank Luntz persuaded George W Bush that "climate change" sounded less threatening, less apocalyptic. The Americans made it a condition of their signing any treaty on global warming that the term climate change be used instead. I really do feel that we should reclaim the language. There is overwhelming scientific evidence (and the wrath of a Something Awful moderator) supporting the view that the planet is getting warmer, let's stop hiding the truth. Strudel Man fucked around with this message at 20:44 on Dec 8, 2011 |
# ¿ Dec 8, 2011 20:27 |
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Exactly. The IPCC sure as hell isn't called that because of Frank Luntz.
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# ¿ Dec 8, 2011 20:46 |
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err posted:Are there any theorized deadlines that we could see that would make us say, "we done hosed up"?
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# ¿ Dec 9, 2011 02:34 |
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Ghost of Babyhead posted:I'm pretty sure we'll be able to rationalise away any number of catastrophes. Even by the time coastal populations have turned into refugees, the refrain will be "woops, mistakes were made, look forward not back".
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# ¿ Dec 9, 2011 02:54 |
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Death Himself posted:We're already ignoring that. I guess because it's not happening in the US yet.
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# ¿ Dec 9, 2011 08:12 |
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Death Himself posted:Bangladesh is being overtaken by the ocean thanks to rising sea levels caused by climate change.
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# ¿ Dec 9, 2011 08:45 |
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Death Himself posted:They already lost some fishing communities on islands off the coast and on the coast itself. The higher water level during their normal flood season has caused salt water to reach places it never used to before, turning what were already thin areas of arable land even smaller or entirely useless. Basically, do you have a link that I could potentially pass along to someone else? Evidence of loss of once-habitable land would be a useful thing to have.
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# ¿ Dec 9, 2011 09:00 |
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Death Himself posted:This is a decent article I was able to find quick:
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# ¿ Dec 9, 2011 09:44 |
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WAFFLEHOUND posted:This is just retarded. I can't both know what I'm talking about and not agree with your worldview without being a shill for big oil? I'm a loving igneous petrologist, not an oil guy. I'm just familiar with this area of geology. I've been backing out of this because it's clear people don't want to do anything more than yell at me about how wrong I am, since people were just fine making appeals to authority wrt geologists until they realized I am one and now I'm a shill.
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# ¿ Dec 13, 2011 04:52 |
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Mr Chips posted:Logistical issues aside, trees in drought/heat stress can become net carbon emitters - this has already been observed in forested areas of mountain ranges on the eastern seaboard of Australia.
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# ¿ Dec 16, 2011 08:45 |
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Ad Astra posted:If this doesn't suffice they can make you another map for 2070 with even more red in it. These are the same people who can't reliably predict the weather for the next few days. Nevertheless, I'm rather skeptical myself of a map seemingly so specific, given the broad spread that exists even just in global average temperature predictions. quote:For the six SRES marker scenarios, IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (2007:7-8) gave a "best estimate" of global mean temperature increase (2090-2099 relative to the period 1980-1999) that ranged from 1.8 °C to 4.0 °C. Over the same time period, the IPCC gave a "likely" range (greater than 66% probability, based on expert judgement) for these scenarios was for a global mean temperature increase of between 1.1 and 6.4 °C Strudel Man fucked around with this message at 09:37 on Dec 21, 2011 |
# ¿ Dec 21, 2011 07:16 |
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Orbital Sapling posted:I don't understand this. You clearly have no idea what you are talking about, have zero expertise in the field and (probably) no real experience in science and yet you still spout bullshit like this as if you have something of merit to contribute.
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# ¿ Dec 21, 2011 21:52 |
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Killin_Like_Bronson posted:Is the problem that we cannot tell precisely the future or that the science does not extend it's claims further than it can to remain honest? Even on the low end of severity and high probability data that we have gathered in the last few decades (measurement of methane release/dying phytoplankton/ocean levels rising), we should be doing things right now to fix them. I applaud the reserved predictions and honest probabilities. The margin of error also leaves room for things to be WORSE. Salt Fish posted:"Sir, as your doctor I must warn you; unless you undergo treatment we can predict with 66% certainty that you'll have 1-6 years left to live." Strudel Man fucked around with this message at 02:49 on Dec 22, 2011 |
# ¿ Dec 22, 2011 02:46 |
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Incidentally, if that 66% certainty range represents a normal bell-curve, it suggests a prediction of 3.75 degrees of warming with a standard deviation of 2.73 degrees; the usual 95% confidence interval is then -1.6 C to 9.1 C. I suppose at least part of the trouble is that such a range is hard to plan for. 9.1 represents a degree of warming so great that all our efforts at amelioration would be like unto the struggling of a butterfly before the ether, while -1.6 represents...well, far more likely a lack of substantive heating than any actual cooling, obviously. And in the middle of that range, you have a problem that would require increasingly greater resources to combat. But when our most reliable predictions are just that it will be somewhere between "nothing" and "unbridled catastrophe," it's hard to get a good grip on how much sacrifice will be needed.
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# ¿ Dec 22, 2011 03:08 |
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Ignatius M. Meen posted:Shouldn't the take-home message be that we need to actually do something now to treat the problem? To continue the medical analogy, it's like a patient who doesn't want to get the recommended treatments because their doctor can't give them a precise estimate on how many they'll have to have/how long they'll have to be treated for. And while it's easy to say that we need to do "something," the trouble is that given the wide spread of possible severities we face, any specific "something" is always going to be simultaneously too much and not enough. Translating 'do something' into action requires a fairly strong sense of how bad the problem is and how much what we're doing is going to help...which, unfortunately, we rather lack at the moment.
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# ¿ Dec 22, 2011 03:28 |
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Squalid posted:We already have something very similar to your "nuclear tree". It is purely solar powered, requires little to no maintenance and production is a cinch. You can call it the 'solar bio tree,' or more commonly, a 'tree'. Strudel Man fucked around with this message at 20:19 on Jan 2, 2012 |
# ¿ Jan 2, 2012 20:17 |
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Claverjoe posted:So we make charcoal out of the tree and use it as fertilizer for more trees. MeLKoR posted:On the other hand trees are an extremely low tech, low starting cost, low maintenance , can produce stuff we want besides wood and is an highly distributed way of capturing vast amounts of carbon. I don't know, I suppose we could try to have a 'wooden revolution,' store carbon by intensive growth of trees to make into everything that can be possibly made out of wood. More wood in houses, et cetera. Flammability could then be a potential problem, of course. Strudel Man fucked around with this message at 21:29 on Jan 2, 2012 |
# ¿ Jan 2, 2012 21:21 |
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Haraksha posted:I just assumed that an artificial tree would capture massive quantities of CO2.
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# ¿ Jan 3, 2012 05:16 |
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Uranium Phoenix posted:But yeah, carbon sequestration is not a solution by itself, it's merely another step we can take to un-gently caress ourselves. Society absolutely needs to switch to zero-carbon energy for any good progress to be made. Now, whether "sufficiently developed" is actually in the cards, that's another question, and one I can't really answer.
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# ¿ Jan 3, 2012 10:39 |
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deptstoremook posted:Your example about TV and movies is a great subconscious example of how deeply we have been socialized to associate quality of life with magnitude of consumption. ...remind me, when was that again?
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# ¿ Jan 7, 2012 07:29 |
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deptstoremook posted:I too have trouble imagining a world where anyone can be happy without a constant glut/rut of goods manufactured by slaves. quote:Also, nice job on advocating for "population control" in the third world:
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# ¿ Jan 7, 2012 09:26 |
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Ratios and Tendency posted:This is the 'multi-billion dollar marketing and advertising industries have no effect' fallacy. My position here, the one I have staked out, is that the desire to acquire more material goods is a fairly fundamental human behavioral characteristic, and that while it may be somewhat culturally malleable in the extent to which it drives us, it is not something that can extinguished or strongly suppressed. Do you, in fact, disagree with this position? And if you do, how would your characterize your understanding of consumption?
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# ¿ Jan 7, 2012 09:53 |
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Claverjoe posted:I'm pretty sure the bolded part is a big fat no. It was a tubular sock of a CIGS solar cell, which from a pure effectiveness standpoint isn't really worth that much. CIGS are relatively agnostic to orientation anyway (well, compared to indirect band gap silicon solar cells), and the tubular design was a guaranteed under utilization of the whole cell at any given time.
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# ¿ Jan 18, 2012 21:05 |
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Amarkov posted:Why would anyone do this? It would be an incredible coincidence if all the technologies best suited to fight global warming were also ideal over the short term on which capitalist organizations make decisions. Why would people in a libertarian society voluntarily make economically unfavorable decisions?
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# ¿ Feb 3, 2012 23:33 |
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messagemode1 posted:But it also looks like there's no real long term "gain" from making a shift to non-exploitative means. It's like a choice between getting $5 now and losing $50 later, and losing $5 now and still losing $35 later anyway, since the forecast is that collectively everyone will be big losers.
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# ¿ Feb 4, 2012 09:40 |
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Squalid posted:I have news for you buddy, somebody already convinced a heckuva lot of people not to procreate
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# ¿ Feb 9, 2012 09:55 |
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Squalid posted:I'm well aware of the relationship between wealth and birth rates, strudel man. I'm merely demonstrating that in many countries a majority are already forgoing large families. As obvious as that sounds there is literally someone arguing that it is impossible a few posts up Strudel Man fucked around with this message at 00:12 on Feb 10, 2012 |
# ¿ Feb 10, 2012 00:04 |
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Dreylad posted:Although the major polluters are the democracies, in the case of total CO2 emissions. China might be really turning up their emissions but they're not really relevant to current C02 emissions so far. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions
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# ¿ Feb 18, 2012 20:36 |
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pwnyXpress posted:He probably meant per capita, not total emissions.
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# ¿ Feb 18, 2012 21:11 |
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Dreylad posted:I mean for the last 200 years. China hasn't caught up, and wont for awhile. Because while I suppose I could maybe see an argument from equitability in that, we probably can't afford to let every country get its fair share of cumulative emissions.
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# ¿ Feb 19, 2012 09:09 |
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sitchensis posted:And then when I point to public transportation as a solution they tell me about this one time their friend smelled a fart on a bus and all public transportation is HORRIBLE ICKY AND STUPID.
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# ¿ Mar 6, 2012 22:13 |
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karthun posted:When people talk about "the science being settled" they talk about measurements like these.
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# ¿ Mar 13, 2012 02:14 |
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karthun posted:First off its not my map, its the USDA's. Secondly what is your conclusion for the USDA using 30 years of data to make these maps?
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# ¿ Mar 13, 2012 02:45 |
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a lovely poster posted:I think his point is that making poo poo up entirely would be a much more effective strategy if actual change was the goal. I don't necessarily agree with that nor do I like the implications of such an idea.
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# ¿ Mar 14, 2012 07:49 |
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totalnewbie posted:and just ended it. Starts at minimizing the effects of CO2 (okay, fine, present your proof) but ends at the fall of the Berlin Wall. I love it.
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# ¿ Mar 28, 2012 02:38 |
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TACD posted:Here's one article I found with a quick Google, there are many many more making the same points out there. http://www.energybulletin.net/stories/2011-03-22/won%92t-innovation-substitution-and-efficiency-keep-us-growing quote:With an overall societal EROEI of 3:1, for example, roughly a third of all of that society’s effort would have to be devoted just to obtaining the energy with which to accomplish all the other things that a society must do (such as manufacture products, carry on trade, transport people and goods, provide education, engage in scientific research, and maintain basic infrastructure). quote:As we saw in Chapter 3, in our discussion of the global supply of minerals, when the quality of an ore drops the amount of energy required to extract the resource rises. All over the world mining companies are reporting declining ore quality. So in many if not most cases it is no longer possible to substitute a rare, depleting resource with a more abundant, cheaper resource; instead, the available substitutes are themselves already rare and depleting. quote:We will be doing a lot of substituting as the resources we currently rely on deplete. In fact, materials substitution is becoming a primary focus of research and development in many industries. But in the most important cases (including oil), the substitutes will probably be inferior in terms of economic performance, and therefore will not support economic growth.
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# ¿ Apr 4, 2012 19:16 |
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gently caress You And Diebold posted:Nice, 'graph'. I especially like the units given, really helps your point! Corrupt Politician posted:I've heard the 2 degrees figure before, but is there any real basis for it, or is it just a guess? I thought we really didn't understand the possible feedback loops well enough to know where the threshold is. Strudel Man fucked around with this message at 09:23 on Apr 15, 2012 |
# ¿ Apr 15, 2012 09:18 |
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# ¿ May 17, 2024 01:27 |
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gently caress You And Diebold posted:It was more the top 60% I was worried about .
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# ¿ Apr 15, 2012 19:25 |