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Ola
Jul 19, 2004

IOwnCalculus posted:

On gas-only mode, it really isn't that great:

Same with all plugin hybrids it seems. Go all electric or go home I say. Or stay home. Whichever makes the sentence work.

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Ola
Jul 19, 2004

After Clarkson left, Top Gear editorial policy on EVs changed dramatically. http://www.topgear.com/uk/car-news/tesla-model-s-p85d-review-first-drive-2015-05-11

Ola
Jul 19, 2004

Michael Scott posted:

I just wish the Model 3 will be 20-25k instead of 30k. Those extra few thousands on either side will be either a great incentive or a big barrier to a lot of households.

It seems highly unlikely that Tesla will be able to beat the big manufacturers in terms of cost however, which makes me sad.

Well, who knows. The battery is a huge % of the total cost and Tesla is about to become the biggest manufacturer of EV batteries in the world. http://www.teslamotors.com/sites/default/files/blog_attachments/gigafactory.pdf

Ola
Jul 19, 2004

It's not too surprising that those earning low wages can't afford a brand new car, is it? Even in heavily subsidized Norway they are for people who earn good wages. A used diesel hatch + 5 years of fuel < a new EV. But they do seem to depreciate a bit fast, steady updates to the model range is going to make the older ones drop in value faster. Which will make them more accessible for more people.

Ola
Jul 19, 2004

Michael Scott posted:

And GM isn't? GM's market cap is $56 B. Even if it takes a loss for a few years on a model as long as it eventually turns into gains they can make it up no problem. I'm not seeing your point and I don't think Tesla can afford a loss any more than GM can, and Tesla is certainly testing that point these past couple quarters with its massive spending, coupled with a badly-timed gas price plunge.

If GM makes a successful EV, they will help Tesla. With overall EV use going up, public favor turns more positive, more infrastructure is built or adapted to it, more people take the EV plunge. This phenomenon exists in every business paradigm shift, at least in theory.

And at the moment, Tesla's market cap is 30.87 bn, Ford is 61. Pretty weird to think about a start-up being half the size of the old titans already.

Ola
Jul 19, 2004

Low debt is one of the reasons Tesla are still making losses and why those losses are tolerated, they are aggressively writing down capital expenditure like retooling and the Gigafactory.

Best regards

White Knight Capital Ltd

Ola
Jul 19, 2004

Ola posted:

Tesla's market cap is 30.87 bn

31.12 bn now. Has been ripping for days. Feels...exuberant, perhaps irrationally.

Ola
Jul 19, 2004

ilkhan posted:

We're on the cusp of EV being mainstream, but not quite there yet.


There are millions and millions of people who think the same as you, which is a great for the future of EVs. The more money is put into R&D of cars and infrastructure, the bigger the market gets. In the mean time, test drive whatever is on the market now so you can keep your finger on the pulse of the development, like eeenmachine says they all have that addictive zap off the line although noting touches the Tesla of course.

Ola
Jul 19, 2004

InitialDave posted:

I got my annual summary of electricity usage, and it seems that a year of having an EV has upped my kwh total over the previous year by a whole 3%...

Don't mean to pry, but would you mind quantifying that a bit more? How many miles and kWh pr year?



Chris Walken posted:


Fortunately for those of us with reasonably short commutes (mine's 26 miles/~1 hour roundtrip) there are more affordable options.

Is that 26 miles one way, 1 hour round trip? Or 13 miles one way, 1 hour round trip? It's not very hard to do the average speed math either way, if it was me I would be looking for my commut-O-matic right here: http://www.zeromotorcycles.com/

As for the incentives, I wonder if the used market might be a better bet by now. EVs seem to be depreciating a bit quickly, might be worth checking out the second hand market. Keeping the Merc and getting a year-old VW E-Up! might end up being a good equation.

Ola
Jul 19, 2004

Chris Walken posted:

It's 26 miles/~1 hour roundtrip. So 13 miles/~30 minutes each way. About half freeway, half streets but varies slightly depending on which route I take. I'm actually looking into a 24 month lease of an EV. Those are words I NEVER thought I'd say, but the Merc is starting to need a lot of expensive repairs and gets 20mpg in the city, and at the new job it bakes in the sun for 8 hours and is 1 million degrees when I get into it to drive home (it's black on black).

Ah, right, so the lease is sort of a given. I don't know about the incentives, but I can bring another tempting fact to the table regarding those hot temps. Many EVs (Tesla, Leaf, VW, perhaps more) have apps which lets you turn on A/C remotely.

Ola
Jul 19, 2004

I think a lot of people have the same experience given how much free charging is available. I expect that to change towards pay to charge in the future, but not this year or next. But about the consumption, 65 kWh is 3% of 2166 kWh. Is that the annual number you got? It seems low, perhaps the difference is in utilities. I live in a small loft apartment, I don't need to heat that much in winter and I don't use A/C in summer at all - however I do cook and heat water electric, perhaps you use gas. My annual consumption is 6000-something kWh.

Ola
Jul 19, 2004

Right, that does explain it. I haven't tallied up my power bills over the year but I do think we might be paying around the same, electricity in Norway is cheap compared to nearby countries. The difference is quickly made up in beer prices.

Ola
Jul 19, 2004

Mange Mite posted:

I'm saying I seriously doubt this will happen because the kinds of cost reductions Tesla has to achieve in order to hit that price point with that range is probably not going to happen. As in even their supporters admit that the numbers are "quite optimistic" though "not impossible"

Do you think that if the cost reduction fails to meet the expectation, the entire thing is off? Or if it's more expensive than predicted, slower sales can be expected? All of that is very interesting conjecture, the experience so far is that the price reduction is happening faster than previously predicted: http://www.carbonbrief.org/blog/2015/03/electric-vehicle-batteries-already-cheaper-than-2020-projections/


Mange Mite posted:

Tesla pretty commonly fails to deliver on a lot of what they promise when first announcing a product. See: Tesla Roadster delays and performance changes, Model X delays, Model S still not having automatic parking, supercruise, or many other promised features, etc.

Every big thing that has happened in the last hundred years happened slower than the crazy cheering optimists wanted it to. So with this. Yet, the things happened eventually.

If there's one thing I am critical about right now, it is not battery-electric. That poo poo is excellent, from politics to pipe. The thing that sucks is Tesla's obsession with automation and self-driving. I was doubtful before, reading Tesla-drivers' experiences now makes me hate it - the flaws might be tiny but they are symptomatic of a developer mindset that is so far removed from the real world, it should not be deployed in the real world.

Ola
Jul 19, 2004

Mange Mite posted:

It's right in that link you posted:

Selectively quoting critical bits will get you far, but the simple fact is that batteries now are cheaper than we thought they would be a few years ago. So it might be in the future as well.


Mange Mite posted:


It's "not impossible" but pretty questionable, and considering the level of hype there is and Tesla/Musk's general track record (and overall PR power), I'm highly skeptical. It's SOP with a lot of these companies - make silly predictions and if you fail, well, nobody remembers so long as the money keeps rolling in.

This is how every company behaves, even century-old ones.

Mange Mite posted:

Quite a few high-profile battery / EV startups have failed recently and every single time, it's because they ran out of cash before whatever as-yet-undiscovered thing they need to hit their projections appeared.

I wouldn't be surprised if some startups failed. But I can't think of any. Which ones are you referring to?

But AMEN on the touch-centric interface, in addition to the automation which I mentioned previously. It's cleverly executed stupidity. They also have a lot of quality control issues which isn't that surprising given that it's a new car company and they have to learn things the hard way. Building cars is hard. The really surprising thing is that Mercedes and BMW also have tons of QC problems in their luxury cars. New ideas, new design = new problems. That's why you get a warranty.

Ola
Jul 19, 2004

Crotch Fruit posted:

I think you mean the Tesla looks like a nice normal car, but the Prius and Insight look like space age toys because douche bag marketers obsessed with young people think they need to look like that.

Fixed.

As for Tesla competition, it looks like it's starting to come along.

quote:

Finally, new details are starting to emerge about BMW’s third installment in its i-Series range. The i5 will be the first sedan in the group of electrically assisted vehicles, and its sights are squarely set on the Tesla Model S.

.....
As for what will make the i5 distinct, BMW is promising excellent interior space. Thanks to the battery placement between the rear wheels, and the longer shape compared to the i3, the i5 will have the most room of the current i-Series models and will offer trunk space to rival other sedans on the market.
The juiciest bit of news is that the i5 will reportedly come in two versions: a plug-in hybrid like the i8, and a full electric version, like the entry-level i3. The electric-only model will pair a rear-mounted 225 horsepower electric motor with a front-mounted 135 HP motor good for a combined 360 horses. As for the hybrid, a more potent 275 HP rear-mounted electric motor will be paired with either a three or four-cylinder motor up front. Both versions will feature torque-vectoring all-wheel drive and a curb weight of under 3,450 pounds thanks to extensive use of carbon fiber.


http://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/bmw-i5-sedan-performance-specs-news-rumors/

Ola
Jul 19, 2004

I think there are many nice looking cars on the market today, hatchbacks and sedans. The ones I like seem to have one thing in common, the designers said "let's go with something simple and elegant, not the pretend spaceship poo poo the Don Draper wannabes rave about". I think the best looking electric car second to the Model S is the e-Golf. Looks slightly more futuristic than a regular Golf, but is just a wholesome, pleasing Golf.

Ola
Jul 19, 2004

MattD1zzl3 posted:

I hope some obscure company finds a way to engineer a pointless manual transmission EV (i am aware they basically do not need shifting transmissions). I love the idea of going fuel-free on my commute but i am not capable of dealing with an automatic-style transmission. I just can not.

When you say pointless manual transmission, do you mean a lever in the center console or an actual manual transmission which isn't really needed, so you can row through the gears? All current EVs I know of are direct drive (apart from one of the Brammo bikes) with a PRND selector. So the selector is automatic in style but the driving experience is like a manual in the sense that there is no slushy torque converter between the motor and the wheels but solid steel all the way. EVs tend to top out at lower speeds than ICE cars, more gears would help that but for the vast majority of uses, the only gear is also the right gear.



eGolf center console. I really like that in D you can select the desired regen braking by moving the stick sideways.

Ola
Jul 19, 2004

MattD1zzl3 posted:

Thats effectively an auto, I'd rather take the EV bus. To each their own but I dont know how you guys deal with it. But i'm also very passionate about EV's and transitioning away from fossil fuel is something i want to be a part of.

I just thought hoped that there would be enough of a market that they could make something with software. Just one obscure model, thats all i need.


I know :( I knew that before i posted. Thanks everyone for responding to an odd query.

I still don't understand this query. Is it the act of changing gears that you like, and you want to keep it in the car? Or is it something about the behavior of an automatic transmission that annoys you? EVs do not drive like gas-powered automatics at all. I too prefer manual to automatics, because automatics usually has some really annoying gear changing behavior. I vastly prefer manual to a slushy automatic and I vastly prefer EV direct drive to a gas powered manual.

Ola
Jul 19, 2004

MattD1zzl3 posted:

Yes. Both. I dont want to go overboard with my lovely opinions beyond "i like X" (3 posts might be enough) but putting it in D and pressing the "gas" will aways feel slushy if i'm not actively controlling the disconnection of the drive wheels during a stop and the slip during setting off.

Fair enough! Tesla offers no strings attached test drives, give it a go one day. I think you'll be surprised.
One thing that might annoy you is the creep function. Other EVs also have this. If you're standing still in drive with brake on, hill hold is active. Once you touch the accelerator, the car will creep forward until it comes to a full stop with brakes on again. I like it because you can be more precise inching forward by braking a creep then by pressing the gas gently. Don't like it? Switch it off in the config menu.

MattD1zzl3 posted:

It sounds like they knew EV motorcycle buyers would want to shift their own gears as well and made that work.

Maybe, but with that particular bike I think it was an engineering choice more of a customer demand. It's supposed to be a track capable bike and with a single speed it tops out in the straights too early.

ilkhan posted:

And most have a 1 speed transmission to add a reverse gear, not straight direct drive.

Nope, they spin the motor backwards. I think most can even regen backwards. They do have a box with some cogs and gear oil in it though and it can rightly be called a gearbox. It's just that the gears can't be shifted.

Ola
Jul 19, 2004

Subjunctive posted:



You'd still risk having someone break open your window because they don't know it's being cooled, I suppose.

This is a good point. I'd leave a sign saying "don't worry! A/C is running, dog is more comfortable than you outside!"

Ola
Jul 19, 2004

WARNING: DOG HATES HEAT, SO IT HAS AIR CON
IF YOU SMASH THE WINDOW AND LET HEAT IN
IT WILL TEAR YOUR SKIN OFF TO PATCH THE HOLE

Ola
Jul 19, 2004

ilkhan posted:

P90D is still only fast as gently caress up to about 100mph, beyond that (supercar level) ICE wins.

Because it doesn't have a gearbox. It beats most supercars up to 100 mph in one gear. If they added a gearbox to it, different story.

Ola
Jul 19, 2004

DoLittle posted:

Gearbox wouldn't help that much. A P85 has about 175 Nm @ 100 mph and 430 Nm @ 50 mph. If you would add a second gear that would double the overall gear ratio you would get 215 Nm @ 100 mph with some additional transmission loss and weight. An improvement, but nothing that would change the overall conclusion.

It will help any car, ICEs or electrics, the math is the same. The torque dips when it starts running out of revs so you change the drive ratio, lose torque but gain wheel speed. It will lose the top speed race to a car with higher hp/drag because physics.

Ola
Jul 19, 2004

Cakefool posted:

Anyone know anything about EV conversions? I realised my budget and desires match up with a converted ICE car better than what's out there right now (especially budget). Are lithium batteries getting more readily available and affordable?

They are hard to get in usable car size unless you get one out of a Leaf or something. I've seen people do Powerwall-like setups in mountain cabins with Leaf packs that have been removed from the car, so you can definitely get them. But buying a new car size battery pack from a big wholesale supplier like A123 is impossible (liability issues) or at best uselessly expensive (cheaper to buy a used EV and pull out the pack). There are probably tons of smaller companies selling small to medium packs though. Here is an Austrian company which sells lithium packs for boat conversions, http://www.aquawatt.at/ A 16 kWh pack, which is 2/3rds of a Leaf capacity, is over $16K...and I guess it doesn't include the controller and charger.

Old conversions were normally half a ton of lead acid batteries which gives you a 20 mile range. There is a fantastic thread in DIY about a tractor EV conversion, stuff like that is still doable at home and actually useful but converted cars aiming to do car jobs won't end up very well, certainly not on a tight budget. The battery pack and controller setup (unless you go for the 20 mile, half ton lead acid option) is complicated and expensive, you might not be able to charge at all the new charging points and you'll not get anywhere near the quality and usability of something coming off a factory line - certainly not on a budget smaller than a 2nd hand factory EV anyway.

If you want an EV for regular car duty and you don't like the look/price of the current ones, stick to cheap ICE for now and wait while building up a Tesla Model 3 piggy bank. But if you want it as a pure hobby project for fun and you don't mind it not being practical, there are loads of resources for that online. The various conversion communities might have faded a bit the past years, but you should be able to find plenty of info on how to convert a Triumph Spitfire, Dodge Ram, Volvo 240 etc etc. But it would probably be just as fun and a lot simpler/cheaper/cooler to do a quad bike or a boat or something else that doesn't have any off-the-rack alternative.

Ola
Jul 19, 2004

Cakefool posted:

Well I did the obvious thing and googled and looks like I could get a 60Ah 96v LiFePO pack for about £3000, which with a 15/30kw AC motor kit comes in at about £8k total. Doable and a fun project in the right car.

That's under 6 kWh, so 1/4 of a Leaf. Austin Healey electric hill climber would be very cool.


DoLittle posted:

But because of the particular shape of the Tesla torque curve the benefit is gears small compared to the benefit gears provide in typical ICE cars. The phenomenal low speed performance advantage Tesla enjoys will not be there at higher speeds - gears or no gears - because ICE cars are also able to utilize their optimal rev range. It becomes just a question of power-to-weight. Granted, something like Charger Hellcat is needed to match the power-to-weight ratio of a P90D, but you can buy two of the Hellcats for the price of a P90D.

The story would anyway be different with gears, if not completely reversed. The Tesla doesn't have a gearbox so 500 hp cars will catch up with it and will have a higher top speed. Still, I would never consider owning a Charger Hellcat or anything similar but would love a Tesla.

Ola
Jul 19, 2004

Cakefool posted:

So £12k for a pack the size of the leafs, better than £16k for 2/3rds. Still doable, though at the point of the being better off buying a used leaf.

It was 16k USD, 10k GBP - but probably without controller, charger and tons of other stuff you need. Looks like £8k gets you a nice Leaf on autotrader.co.uk. Also worth considering that a fun home project with a £10k budget might very well end up with a drivable car, but possibly not a car with any resale value.

Ola
Jul 19, 2004


Holy poo poo. Glad you and the kids are ok. I don't remember reading about this in the news, did it happen around Bergen?

Ola
Jul 19, 2004

I think the early Leafs (Leaves?) are a bit of a bad apple when it comes to battery longevity. I might be wrong about the details, but I think there is something about no active cooling or heating which causes the battery to lose capacity faster than later models and other brands. It will be interesting to see how this pans out in the long run, hopefully the batteries can be recycled well. As battery prices drop, a full replacement for a "vintage" Leaf will hurt less but it will still be a big chunk of $. But I guess it compares well to buying an early 80s car today and having a shop do the piston rings, cylinder honing and gearbox overhaul.

Ola
Jul 19, 2004

IOwnCalculus posted:

It would only be comparable if the 80s car needed all of that work to drive at all, and then the value of that car before the repair would reflect that.

Not only that, the bulk of the cost with the 80s car is labor, for the battery replacement most of the cost is parts - so you can save a lot of money DIYing the 80s car, but only save a tiny bit DIYing the battery change. In both cases the cost will be several times higher than the purchase price before the repair and probably noticeably higher than the market value after the repair - which is often the case with old cars. I wonder if there will be a market for 3rd party reconditioned batteries. Take in a worn out pack, spend some sum in consumables and labor, get a fresh pack back for less than a brand new one.

Ola
Jul 19, 2004

Part wishfully and part realistically, I'm guessing the Model 3 will have longer range and higher price by the time it's formally announced.

Ola
Jul 19, 2004

roomforthetuna posted:

The thing that keeps me from biting the bullet on an EV is the feeling that I'll need to replace the batteries in 5-10 years at a cost that's effectively $50-$100 per month over that timespan, eliminating the bulk of gas savings.

You won't have to. While it will degrade over time, it will last the lifetime of the car - 10-15 years. A Leaf has a 8 year / 100k mile warranty on the battery, Tesla has 8 years unlimited mileage. It compares well with a gas drivetrain which can also be pretty tired after 100,000 miles.

Ola
Jul 19, 2004

While many people on a car forum will be used to high mileage cars, the average is pretty low:

quote:

Consumer Reports says the average life expectancy of a new vehicle these days is around 8 years or 150,000 miles

http://www.nbcnews.com/id/12040753/ns/business-consumer_news/t/whats-life-expectancy-my-car/

I do agree that the battery might be most important factor in limiting the lifetime / economic repair of the car and that a replacement ($5500 according to google) is pretty pricey, but you don't have to replace it within 5-10 years. Reports say Leafs are at 75-80% cap at 100k miles, if you do very high mileage than you should probably factor in the replacement cost after 150-200k miles. Otherwise, no need to worry.

Ola
Jul 19, 2004

Whoa. Audi just unveiled their e-tron quattro concept. 3 motors, 430 hp, 95 kWh battery with 500+ km, 310+ mi nominal range.

http://www.slashgear.com/audis-496hp-e-tron-quattro-concept-previews-2018s-all-electric-suv-14404468/

Ola
Jul 19, 2004

Twerk from Home posted:

That's also a 9 year old article, right? My friend's 2006 2.7L Sebring had the engine seize at 110k miles, but that's because it's an enormous piece of poo poo and he never changed the oil, not because cars die at under 150k. Cars have gotten a LOT better since that article is written.

Oops hehe. I just googled and clicked the first thing. I think a car's life expectancy also depends on the economy. The more money people have, the sooner they scrap their cars.

Ola
Jul 19, 2004

Even as a huge Tesla fanboy, I bet those drat gullwing doors will have leaks or other issues.

Ola
Jul 19, 2004

There's been much anticipation for the Model X in Norway. One thing many want to use it for is exactly sport utility, carrying leisure poo poo around. Those drat gullwing falconwing doors seem to prevent a regular roof rack with a ski box or two kayaks, I am also skeptical to how the roof sensors and door action will behave when there's snow on top. Frankly, I can hardly see any drat point to those doors apart from the gimmick factor. It won't be easier in a tight parking spot for the driver - but perhaps it'll prevent the kids from slamming the doors into walls/cars, I'll give it that.

Other features seem gimmicky as well, but the panoramic front windshield is probably sweet to sit behind. Closest I've come was a rental Citröen C4 (that's the sort of playboy life I lead), apart from a long reach with the snow scrape I really enjoyed the open sensation.

Ola
Jul 19, 2004

spandexcajun posted:

I imagine they work better for things like bikes, definitely easier to install / remove then a roof rack.

Definitely easier for bikes. Carrying 4 pairs of 6 ft long skis + 4 pairs of poles, not so good. Two kayaks...definitely suboptimal. But anyway, with the air suspension set to high and the reported traction capabilities, the Model S is already a great skiers car and can do kayaks as well.

Ola
Jul 19, 2004

spandexcajun posted:



Definitely as good or better then a roof rack for skis / snowboards.

That's not four pairs of skis + poles. Only the snowboarder has all the equipment. And I didn't mean an open roof rack but:





A roof rack with a box attached. While a ski rack seems like a practical idea in a pristine photo studio, the real winter roads are like this:



The ski bindings (and rack mechanisms) will at best get caked up with frost and snow, most likely they will be caked in road grime, slush and salt as well.

Ola
Jul 19, 2004

It looks drat sexy, I can't argue with that.

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Ola
Jul 19, 2004

MrYenko posted:

Front doors are still conventional. Passengers can get in, but driver has to crawl over the center console.

SUVs ain't my thing, but the X is pretty awesome. I just don't get why they went to so much effort on the pax doors, if the driver still has regular doors.

As I said above, it would prevent the kids from slamming their door into the car parked beside while dad can open his regular door with obsessive caution. And it looks cool. Otherwise, I can only think of downsides.

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