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Daduzi posted:Isn't that exactly what Ronya just said? Oh, I read it as Taiwan and China. Still not a great comparison in any case.
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Jan 16, 2024 03:46
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The Poland analog is since the Yangtze river delta city cluster (the most prosperous of China's three major metropolitan clusters, which is used in China as a unit in its national development strategy since 2018) has a nominal GDP per capita quite similar to Poland's and has tracked it remarkably closely for the past decade (albeit it has ~240m people to Poland's ~37m). In 2021 Poland nominal GDP per capita per World Bank is 18k USD and the YRDER has 117k RMB ~ 18k USD. Of the other two clusters, you can think of the Guangdong cluster as having roughly similar growth, whereas the capital area "Jing-Jin-Ji" cluster is basically a creation of govt fiat and isn't really comparable. So: Polands. I can't claim originality for that observation but I can't remember where I've first seen it China has problems with domestic economic barriers (the flip side of having vigorous local experimentation: lots of accumulated local sovereignty) which also lends itself to an idiom of "bolting" one country onto another ronya fucked around with this message at 15:24 on Jan 16, 2024 |
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Jan 16, 2024 15:20
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ronya posted:The Poland analog is since the Yangtze river delta city cluster (the most prosperous of China's three major metropolitan clusters, which is used in China as a unit in its national development strategy since 2018) has a nominal GDP per capita quite similar to Poland's and has tracked it remarkably closely for the past decade (albeit it has ~240m people to Poland's ~37m). In 2021 Poland nominal GDP per capita per World Bank is 18k USD and the YRDER has 117k RMB ~ 18k USD. Which is an illustration of how meaningless economic indicators are, because even if the numbers line up, do you really think Poland's economy and China's really have all that much in common?
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Jan 16, 2024 15:55
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It's an analogy to convey the particularly unique socio economic challenges China is facing.
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Jan 16, 2024 16:21
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Raenir Salazar posted:It's an analogy to convey the particularly unique socio economic challenges China is facing. Cool, how are Poland's and China's economies analagous outside of that arbitrary measurement?
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Jan 16, 2024 16:35
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Stringent posted:Cool, how are Poland's and China's economies analagous outside of that arbitrary measurement? Its about perceptions to explain to a western audience who has probably never set foot in China but has an approximate idea of Poland.
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Jan 16, 2024 16:44
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Raenir Salazar posted:Its about perceptions to explain to a western audience who has probably never set foot in China but has an approximate idea of Poland. To paraphrase, a western audience who have never set foot in China or Poland, but have a preconceived notion of Poland? Is that what you're saying?
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Jan 16, 2024 16:48
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clear foul tasting liquor, love of dumplings, my god it does work
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Jan 16, 2024 16:48
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just put the grey poland color filter over some misty limestone hills or something. bam: poland china
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Jan 16, 2024 16:56
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Stringent posted:To paraphrase, a western audience who have never set foot in China or Poland, but have a preconceived notion of Poland? The point is that the most urbanized parts of China are essentially up to EU standards of wealth while the periphery remains comparatively under-resourced, it's not intended to be a claim about any other facet and expecting an analogy to instead be a literal description or a complete model is unreasonable If you were going to nitpick I feel like the better place to do so is by pointing out that Poland likely has its own urban/rural divide, though I have no clue how stark it is. In the United States, at least, the relative wealth of each state varies so widely that people accept that some should have a minimum wage of $7.25 while others have it set at more than double that, so it obviously isn't unique to China in any way
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Jan 16, 2024 16:57
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BougieBitch posted:The point is that the most urbanized parts of China are essentially up to EU standards of wealth while the periphery remains comparatively under-resourced, it's not intended to be a claim about any other facet and expecting an analogy to instead be a literal description or a complete model is unreasonable That's my point entirely. An analogy should have some unique point of comparison. Why compare China to Poland instead of the US or anywhere else? Why Poland?
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Jan 16, 2024 17:04
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Stringent posted:That's my point entirely. An analogy should have some unique point of comparison. Why compare China to Poland instead of the US or anywhere else? Why Poland? So you don't forget it.
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Jan 16, 2024 17:31
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China Megathread - less than a month to 油条 day China Megathread - time to Polish up your mandarin China Megathread - Turns out PiS is not stored in the ballots Discendo Vox fucked around with this message at 17:56 on Jan 16, 2024 |
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Jan 16, 2024 17:52
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Most people struggle with internal disparities in national aggregates. China has so many minor cities with populations the size of whole European countries that any possible lived experience can be quite limited in scope. China helpfully has a planning concept of an economic zone/cluster which is so large that it mitigates e.g., the possible effect of cherrypicking Pudong as mentally representative of the country as a whole. Instead, it does map well onto what one might think of as a national economy (even one embedded in a larger framework of relative labour and trade mobility): a unit where much economic activity is within the unit and where logistical or regulatory barriers might inhibit full cohesion with other units (e.g., as an example of such policy, urban hukou registrations within the cluster's cities are mutually recognized but not outside the cluster, so labour is more mobile within that unit than when interacting outside it). This also makes it useful to think in terms of divergent economic policy preferences between regions. Of course many countries have divergent provincial/state/regional disparities in economic outlook, but it's helpful to pinpoint comparison countries for a sense of what their priorities might be (on say a development vs pollution tradeoff, for e.g.)
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Jan 16, 2024 17:53
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Stringent posted:I don't have any figures to prove it, but I'd be willing to bet the average wealth and standard of living in Shanghai, Shenzhen, etc. meets or exceeds the standards in Taipai, and probably a lot of Western cities as well. That's the problem with comparing Taiwan and China, China's a little bigger than Taiwan. I don't know the hard economic stats, but I've visited all of those places. In terms of standards of living looked at through a Western lens, I bet most westerners would find Taipei to be more appealing than Shenzhen. It's way less polluted. It's got a vibrant cultural scene. Whether you can really enjoy Shanghai depends a lot on how rich you are. Anyway... Taiwan seems to score pretty high worldwide from a quality of life viewpoint. https://www.internations.org/expat-insider/2022/taiwan-40269#:~:text=Taiwan%20does%20best%20in%20the,10%20for%20many%20related%20factors.
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Jan 16, 2024 17:58
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Speaking for myself, the English-language press is worse than useless for understanding anything about China, and a partial analogy to Poland (or anywhere else in the West), if anywhere near accurate, is very helpful.
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Jan 16, 2024 18:42
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Another thing I've wondered about is that Taiwan has a pretty extensive social benefit and healthcare system and Taiwanese people are very much attached to their benefits. I don't know if the equivalent has been set up in the PRC. https://joinhorizons.com/countries/taiwan/hiring-employees/employee-benefits/ https://joinhorizons.com/countries/...l%20citizens%3B I'm sure someone here will chime in about a biased source, but it seems like the PRC might be leaning to a more austere approach, if anything. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/24/business/china-economy-safety-net.html If the PRC took over and started dismantling that system, there'd definitely be discontent.
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Jan 16, 2024 19:08
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Eric Cantonese posted:I'm sure someone here will chime in about a biased source, but it seems like the PRC might be leaning to a more austere approach, if anything. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/24/business/china-economy-safety-net.html That article definitely seems like a hit job scant on details. From the experience of my relatives in Shanghai, they seem pretty happy with their healthcare coverage and some of them vastly prefer the experience in China over the US in terms of appointment availability and general wait times (hey, our healthcare system sucked, who knew). Doesn't account for other areas of China of course.
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Jan 16, 2024 19:16
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I wouldn't say "having enough money" is the same as healthcare coverage
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Jan 16, 2024 20:21
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Stringent posted:That's my point entirely. An analogy should have some unique point of comparison. Why compare China to Poland instead of the US or anywhere else? Why Poland? Because China isn't comparable to the US even in the richest areas still, at least on the metric we are discussing? I'm going to use Wikipedia for this because I'm phone posting and they already have maps in the articles which makes life easier: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Chinese_administrative_divisions_by_GDP_per_capita https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_and_territories_by_GDP You can see that Mississippi, the lowest US state, had ~$47K GDP per capita while the highest number for a Chinese region was Hong Kong at ~$49k, with the remaining regions at least $15k lower. On top of that, Mississippi and Hong Kong are obviously COMPLETELY dissimilar, given how rural Mississippi is. A US observer might then say "ah, I see these levels of nominal economic output are outside of the ranges that I have any lived experience with, I wonder what I might use as a comparison instead?" At which point they pull up a table of countries by GDP per capita and check what countries might fit that range: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)_per_capita If you choose to exclude HK and Macau due to being special administrative regions, the coastal zones people have been talking about range from $28294 to $12786, so on the upper end you have Portugal ($28123) and at the lower end you have Mauritius ($12773) (China in aggregate is the next highest from Mauritius, somewhat ironically). Poland is somewhat on the high end for possible comparisons, at $23,434, but most of the ones that are closer would be weird comparisons (small island nations, Oman, Panama). Maybe Romania would be a better choice, at $20,214. So why are we talking about stapling a different county on? Because the range on the coastal regions is already wider than the range between Mississippi and New York (~$50k to ~$110k) and the inner portions of China haven't been accounted for at all yet For the regions not touching the coast, the range is $14343 at the high end with $6686 on the low end and the median around $10k. That's basically Kazakhstan (14396) or Malaysia (13913) on the high end and Ecuador (6630) or Fiji (6490) on the low end. For a median comparison, maybe you could say Dominica (10090) or Armenia (9 091) Why does this matter? Because we are talking about nominal productivity going up by a factor of 4 or more depending on which zone you look at, which is well outside the norm for any given country. It more resembles the difference in wealth between member state of the EU - which is relevant and important, because it gives us a sense of some problems that might be inherent to that level of regional inequality when all members have a single currency and must follow the same government lines
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Jan 16, 2024 20:26
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WarpedLichen posted:That article definitely seems like a hit job scant on details. From the experience of my relatives in Shanghai, they seem pretty happy with their healthcare coverage and some of them vastly prefer the experience in China over the US in terms of appointment availability and general wait times (hey, our healthcare system sucked, who knew). I’m not an expert, but China does not have universal healthcare or strong social support systems. You are very much hosed in Shanghai, for example, if you get really sick and don’t have money or a your own insurance plan. I have heard of subsidized insurance plans in the countryside (农医保) that make healthcare affordable there, but a quick Baidu search also turns up a video on the first page of about people who don’t want to sign up for it because of “shenanigans” (猫腻, a word I just learned). I wouldn’t trust a random video, but from what I’ve heard of countryside politics, I wouldn’t be shocked to learn corruption is rampant. In terms of the actual experience of healthcare, wait times are short, but to many people I know the system feels grinding and dehumanizing. There is no primary care — you diagnose yourself and register to see a doctor based on your perceived symptoms. Individual doctors can be good, but the hospital system itself is a byzantine and impersonal bureaucracy. There are also straight up fake clinics which charge ludicrous prices to see unlicensed doctors to people who don’t know better. And that’s not even mentioning TCM. I know someone who had a subcutaneous infection who got told she was bitten by a “poison mosquito” and needed herbal compresses as treatment, when she clearly needed antibiotics. She went to a standard hospital and didn’t specifically ask to see a TCM doctor. There is wide availability of quality medical care in Shanghai, but it is not an ideal system.
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Jan 17, 2024 03:54
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Heithinn Grasida posted:There is no primary care — you diagnose yourself and register to see a doctor based on your perceived symptoms. Individual doctors can be good, but the hospital system itself is a byzantine and impersonal bureaucracy. This caught me off guard once, and my wife. I knew I had to see a doctor, but she was confused because I didn't know which doctor to see. And I was like "how would I know? That's why I'm going to the doctor!" but then she kept thinking "yes but we need to know which doctor to see because how else can the doctor know what's wrong with you!" Anyway, ankylosing spondylitis, turned out to be that. 2000rmb a month shots if it gets bad, but thankfully so far it isn't. Even if it does that 2000rmb a month, for me, isn't too had at all, but I'm in the middle of Henan and know a lot of people who, for them, that would just be "yeah that's all my money that's just it" and I guess they would just have to live with it or something. Hopefully they would get that taken care of by the countryside subsidized insurance, but Chinese insurance also has the concept of "preexisting conditions" so you can still get screwed. Also every insurance plan I've looked at specifically mentions they wont cover HIV. Not that I suspect I'd ever get HIV, but, then, what happens if you're Chinese and you have HIV? Central rural China has that whole history with the disease so I imagine there are a handful of people who got real burned there. It has been very easy for me to see a doctor quickly (though there was only one hospital in the city that could really manage my condition, and it is incredibly stressful there), but it is not quick or easy to see the same doctor twice and get continuous care from one person who really understands what's going on with you. At least not here. I'm still trying to figure out how I'm going to navigate it all since this is just a part of my life now and it has been a major headache. The quality of care I have gotten from the different doctors has varied a lot.
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Jan 17, 2024 06:04
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BrainDance posted:This caught me off guard once, and my wife. I knew I had to see a doctor, but she was confused because I didn't know which doctor to see. And I was like "how would I know? That's why I'm going to the doctor!" but then she kept thinking "yes but we need to know which doctor to see because how else can the doctor know what's wrong with you!" they do actually have GPs, and you can see them if you really don't know what specialist to see. there arent as many of them as in an american hospital but what you're looking for is 全科医学科, i've gone to them before and they've figured out some basic stuff to test and what type of specialist i should be seeing to figure it out further. you can also call the hospital or go to the front desk at the entrance and tell them some symptoms and they can often recommend what specialist to see
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Jan 17, 2024 06:11
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Heithinn Grasida posted:I’m not an expert, but China does not have universal healthcare or strong social support systems. You are very much hosed in Shanghai, for example, if you get really sick and don’t have money or a your own insurance plan. I have heard of subsidized insurance plans in the countryside (农医保) that make healthcare affordable there, but a quick Baidu search also turns up a video on the first page of about people who don’t want to sign up for it because of “shenanigans” (猫腻, a word I just learned). I wouldn’t trust a random video, but from what I’ve heard of countryside politics, I wouldn’t be shocked to learn corruption is rampant. Yeah, that is definitely true. You do end up screwed if you get really sick and can't work. As I understand it though, most Chinese people are only on government insurance without any supplemental products. This article has a good explanation of things I think: https://www.theactuarymagazine.org/hdhl-medical-insurance-in-china-part-1/ As for TCM, that's a whole other can of worms. Most people will still swear by it, so yeah, not surprised there. WarpedLichen fucked around with this message at 07:20 on Jan 17, 2024 |
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Jan 17, 2024 07:17
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BrainDance posted:Chinese insurance also has the concept of "preexisting conditions" so you can still get screwed. There's probably some deep set scandals brewing about this very issue.
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Jan 17, 2024 19:08
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https://apnews.com/article/south-china-sea-agreement-philippines-068038b1ee4ab90bf19b47763835d379 https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202401/1305603.shtml China blinked? It doesn't seem like the Philippines made any concessions
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Jan 19, 2024 09:57
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386-SX 25Mhz VGA posted:Speaking for myself, the English-language press is worse than useless for understanding anything about China, and a partial analogy to Poland (or anywhere else in the West), if anywhere near accurate, is very helpful. Hi friend, I recommend this youtube channel  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IDv896fNRxU (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Jan 19, 2024 12:29
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Terper posted:Hi friend, I recommend this youtube channel lol. This is a joke right?
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Jan 20, 2024 19:22
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Definitely looks click-baity, I remember watching a video on the PLA that argued the many ways the PLA was "weaker" than the US military that I felt was very dubious and not well thought out; like how troop and equipment movement in the US is based off of maritime shipping and air travel while China is more rail based; but I think pretty obviously this is a apples to oranges situation where there's pros and cons; rail is cheap, easier to mask build up, and allows for the transportation and procurement of heavier equipment. China artillery systems largely out range US systems as a result; a clear advantage under local conditions. Not that the US doesn't use rail based transport, it does, often for its vehicles across the continental US, or on flatbed trucks, but its clear this is more of a result of the US oriented towards rapid deployment of trip wire forces to hot spots while China is more oriented towards building up the needed weight of forces to win a conflict under local high tech conditions.
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Jan 20, 2024 19:30
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Staluigi posted:just put the grey poland color filter over some misty limestone hills or something. bam: poland china 
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Jan 21, 2024 13:10
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ronya posted:https://apnews.com/article/south-china-sea-agreement-philippines-068038b1ee4ab90bf19b47763835d379 Seems they are going back to the pre 2014 airdrops for resupply? https://twitter.com/IndoPac_Info/status/1749046244725731532
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Jan 22, 2024 03:55
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Could be a show of good faith for the duration of maritime/marine-related talks, since prior notification of seaborne resupply missions is a Chinese negotiating demand - unless the PN calls off its civilian resupply missions permanently... Unrelated: Glenn Luk and Michael Pettis have been passive-aggressively subtweeting each other for a while now: https://twitter.com/GlennLuk/status/1748669158022418499 https://twitter.com/michaelxpettis/status/1749282185184415764 Quite funny to watch
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Jan 22, 2024 06:10
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BrainDance posted:Also every insurance plan I've looked at specifically mentions they wont cover HIV. Not that I suspect I'd ever get HIV, but, then, what happens if you're Chinese and you have HIV? Central rural China has that whole history with the disease so I imagine there are a handful of people who got real burned there. So China has its own gay dating app called Blued. Just like Grindr in the rest of the world, there are ads and even a section on the app for STD screenings and the purchase of safe sex products. You can get an online consultation with a doctor for the prescription of PRep/PEP for HIV prevention. I had an expat friend who, unfortunately, became HIV positive and had to leave the country. He didn't have insurance and he didn't want to take his chances seeking treatment in China. This was a bit before the pandemic. That being said, since the government is exponentially cracking down on LGBT folk, it might not be the best idea to seek treatment or medicines that might not be...harmonious with the values the powers that be holds dear. There are rumors that LGBT folk travel to the PULSE clinics in Bangkok and Hong Kong that specialize in LGBT medical issues.
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Jan 22, 2024 15:08
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ronya posted:relevant: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-08/chinese-city-official-spent-21-billion-on-vanity-projects English language coverage of coverage: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CHo2xLU9a20
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Jan 23, 2024 05:28
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There's a big raft of policy moves, not least of which reserve requirement cuts and foreign reserve mobilization (notice the implicit tension already present here: the former wants to depress the yuan, the latter to strengthen it) I'll link when I can find a nice list of it all... It does feel like policymakers are still hellbent keeping domestic investment in "high quality" sectors high despite warnings of domestic glut and icy developed world reception to exports
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Jan 25, 2024 03:19
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Three years of adjournments later, the ad hoc bondholder situation did not pan out. China Evergrande Group share trading is halted and the the order is in for them to be liquidized. The situation represents more than $300 billion in total liabilities. There's really not a lot to do but watch what something like this even looks like.
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Jan 29, 2024 05:12
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Kavros posted:Three years of adjournments later, the ad hoc bondholder situation did not pan out. China Evergrande Group share trading is halted and the the order is in for them to be liquidized. What's the precedential history of debt liquidation? $300 billion sounds like a lot but I don't have other private entities to compare them to (and ofc google is currently choked with the current news).
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Jan 29, 2024 06:17
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Precedential history is going to be a crude fit at best, as far as I can tell. Anything in the following paragraphs is a puffed up way of describing "who really knows, but probably something like china's go at a Lost Decade." 1. for starters, $300 billion purely in liabilities for a property development operation that goes officially defunct is a bit of a meteor crater. Evergrande was the world's most indebted property developer, and now it's completely poo poo the bed. So, definitively a property crisis. And because of property development's perilously 'encouraged' role in china's growth, you're now talking about a prosperity crisis. So the scale alone relative to china's markets makes it hard to determine what something like this looks like months or years down the road. You would have an easier time figuring outcomes for scenarios like "toyota goes defunct with its current liabilities." 2. china's government has been carrying along quite fast in the "if the only tool you have is a hammer" saga of markets in countries with strongly authoritarian rulership, the kind that habituates more and more forceful attempts at controlling market prices through behind-the-scenes decree, and snowballing efforts to prop up stocks or preserve face. In ways which delay crashes. By turning them into more serious crashes later. Will they start stronghanding some overt restrictions on stock sales? Will they informally halt shorting? Officially halt shorting? Will they order tremendous quantities of their own sovereign funds to buy in and prop up financials to stave off investor abandonment? There are so many different ways that china's government can prove ultimately incompetent to the task of not making this situation worse (based off recent history), and there's immense transparency issues in what efforts or decrees will even be pursued in the first place, so there's too much of a potential future variety in the ways this can even go. 3. this whole crisis is a can that got kicked down the road for a long while already, so uglier or more generational financial malaise may have already been hardened into unavoidability by now, and you have to wait and see if thorough and meaningful policy reversals are on the table. There's at least a few things which you can easily guess on, because by now they're the lowest hanging fruit on the guessing tree: first, there will be lots of rapidly cycled in new restrictions on acceptable online commentary about markets or the financial health of the country. Second, plenty of higher ups in evergrande finding themselves detained and paraded out to the news as egregious crime doing criminals who did criminal crime to the markets, and must be made an example of. Everything else boils down to the question of what china is willing or capable of doing to satisfy investors and keep faith in the validity of their markets, and what china is willing or capable of doing on top of that to limit how many of their own citizens are going to see their life savings effectively go up in smoke.
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Jan 29, 2024 08:01
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https://twitter.com/ChannelNewsAsia/status/1753358756606550068 https://twitter.com/sehof/status/1754070403893334137 The actual newsy bit: quote:Noting that Mr Chan had held grassroots positions, including as a patron of Kampong Chai Chee Citizens’ Consultative Committee, Prof Chong said that “there should be more discussion of the grassroots activities Chan engaged in and his links with ministers, especially any lobbying activity”. Essentially, dismissed from party-affiliated positions (Singapore retains a Leninist party structure and party-affiliated community orgs exercise significant power). The state press plays the Maria Hertogh card: https://twitter.com/niubi/status/1754188951290511754 (notice the use of "our" - Singapore inherited the colonial pukka-sahib mindset of floating aloof and detached above the governed; senior civil servants still habitually speak as if they govern a foreign people with foreign loyalties. The spectre of having to arbitrate violent conflicts between alien affiliations is venerated in its national narratives and is still invoked today, c.f. exhibit A; it's taken as given that those loyalties are 1) held by large numbers of "our" people. but 2) are nonetheless fundamentally illegitimate and deserving of pre-emption. This is despite Singapore's own population, over time, moving from <1% English-speaking to majority English-speaking; the diplomat here is really referring to a real but fading older generation. ) I wonder how much of this is a governing establishment response to the WaPo expose last year triggering a house-cleaning.
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https://twitter.com/Lingling_Wei/status/1754848737665401193 (Wei is coauthor of Superpower Showdown) Quite a lot of current policy response seems tuned more to "don't generate news that embarrasses me, personally" than a coherent monetary policy e.g. to have the PBOC seem to accumulate dollars slightly whilst the state banks and SOEs burn through theirs to stabilize the yuan. There might not be a deeper reason than "the latter are more opaque and less newsworthy" I said a while ago ITT that Beijing would have to act in a truly stupid manner to escalate a slow-burning growth crisis to a sharp-stop forex one, but now I'm really wondering; Setser describes a mechanism that implies racking up tons of dollar denominated liabilities for short term stabilization gains: (entering into swaps to obtain dollars now, then buying yuan with those dollars to counteract one's own domestic loosening measures; of course one still has to close the swap in the future, possibly at a much more adverse exchange rate!). Nothing I've seen suggests 1997-scale hidden dollar debts yet if course (as Setser says, said banks would have enough dollars to make payments regardless), but those would sneak up on you if this policy response is dragged out to the third plenum and beyond
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Feb 7, 2024 05:54
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