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Fojar38 posted:And it will own to watch from across the pacific. You assume global financial markets are well insulated and properly assessing the risk, while Goldman Sachs is screaming BUY BUY NOW.
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Jul 12, 2015 01:00
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Some of us actually do hunker down and produce vital economic indicators that everyone else uses for their research.
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Sep 12, 2015 00:19
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It doesn't matter if a cat is black or white so long as it posts.
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Apr 4, 2017 18:27
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Cookie Cutter posted:New census data shows a steady growth of Uyghur population in Xinjiang over the last decade, for thread consideration: The important percentage they leave out is that the Han population is growing faster than the Uighur population, note how they say the Uighurs grew by 16% but don't do the same for the Han growth, and that growth is almost entirely driven by migration. By 2030, it's likely the Uighurs will be a minority in their own homeland. Morrow fucked around with this message at 17:12 on Jun 15, 2021 |
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Jun 15, 2021 17:08
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ThomasPaine posted:This is a very general comment not specifically even about China but the idea that any ethnicity (whatever you understand the word to mean, and if anything) has some piece of territory that is inherently their rightful 'homeland' is a really dumb idea that leads nowhere good Your contribution is appreciated. By 2030, Uighurs will no longer be the largest ethnic group in Xinjiang province, an integral and inseparable part of China.
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Jun 15, 2021 17:25
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It took a strong labor movement to bring about an eight hour workday; now, employers have had decades to work out how to get around those requirements so we're returning to the historical mean.
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Sep 1, 2021 16:29
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:I'm struggling to see the policy goal in the video game, streaming, cartoon, and cell phone app restrictions that have all been rapidly implemented under Xi. They're treating the symptoms of rampant capitalism without addressing the underlying issues of social alienation. It's the same story: they don't want the youth to spend all their time on phone games or expressing themselves personally, but they're terrible at building an environment that promotes the alternatives.
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Sep 27, 2021 17:17
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The flip side of course is this will create more demand for non-Chinese media within China. It's one thing to try to censor a book on political liberties, only nerds are going to be reading that, but once your youth start looking abroad for basic entertainment they'll soon discover other things.
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Oct 2, 2021 01:33
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Rabelais D posted:China isn't very good at this; why can't they make her upload "impromptu" videos on her social media, you know just talking about how actually everything is OK and western journalists are hyping it all up. Instead all these appearances and official interviews appear ridiculously over stage managed. The point isn't for you, or anyone with two brain cells, to believe. The point is for anyone with two brain cells to comply or face the consequences. It's meant to be performative penance for embarrassing China. And, if the embarrassment continues, there will be further punishments. If international tennis doesn't back down, then Peng Shuai will suffer more.
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Dec 21, 2021 20:52
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The dead students were massacred for refusing to apologize for embarrassing China.
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Dec 23, 2021 19:13
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I can absolutely see some level of misreporting, though not as a deliberate central policy but just individual provinces trying to look better. But, for the huge NPIs that China uses to crack down on Covid, you can't be denying all covid cases. It may be that a reported outbreak of 75 is maybe 100 or so in actuality, for example. But it's not Florida or Russia where excess deaths are skyrocketing as covid cases are obfuscated.
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Dec 25, 2021 20:22
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There's a lot of data that planned economies are great at breaking existing economic equilibrium and spurring big changes in development. The issue is that's exclusively been used by undeveloped economies to build up basic infrastructure, after which they stall out and usually only see further gains once they liberalize. China is going backwards, centralizing control of the economy, at a time when it's running into the edge of the middle income trap.
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Dec 29, 2021 18:55
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Three Body Problem is legitimately a good piece of science fiction and honestly the first innovative cultural work I've seen come out of 21st century China.
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Jan 2, 2022 01:54
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Someone may be pushing this Dali L. Yang guy, he showed up on my Twitter feed and I don't follow anything China related. That tweet thread was under some "Fitness" tag.
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Apr 9, 2022 01:21
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China isn't practicing zero covid to save lives, it's practicing zero covid because the early days of the pandemic were a crisis of legitimacy for the government that scared the hell out of it.
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Apr 15, 2022 16:05
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It also fundamentally reflects how these are absolutely huge countries that you can't really micromanage. If you want top down control, the implementation is going to look like that as it gets amplified by each rung on the ladder.
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Apr 21, 2022 04:56
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TheBuilder posted:I want to be friends with the lucky son of a bitch that owns the factory making all of these hundreds of millions of daily COVID tests. His friends are all major party officials, if you know what I mean.
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May 9, 2022 22:33
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The issue is covid lockdowns were sound policy in 2020 because it minimized death and illness when the tools to treat that were minimal. Economic disruption ensued anyway because unchecked covid forced many businesses to close even where lockdowns were lifted. The issue is that since, lockdowns have become a political decision that the government can't deviate from even as the underlying facts change. There's now good treatments and vaccines for covid and the efficacy of shutting down has been reduced from new more infectious variants.
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Sep 6, 2022 23:00
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It was meant to be seen by reporters.
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Oct 22, 2022 13:11
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It's a truly bizarre incident that I think everyone kind of wishes hadn't happened, going by the PRC firing its weather balloon chief and the US having kept hush about it in the past.
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Feb 6, 2023 04:42
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https://twitter.com/JChengWSJ/status/1691329120003842048 I'm phone posting otherwise I would not use Twitter or do some actual work here like compare China's youth employment rate to Europe or the US to see if it were bad. For me the interesting bit isn't that the indicator isn't looking great, but that the government is cutting back in providing data on it which is usually a very worrying sign.
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Aug 15, 2023 16:23
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ronya posted:PBOC cutting rates to fight deflation and then the state banks buying RMB to hold the RMB stable is a bit ??? Two entities working at cross purposes, both with monetary policy tools. Fundamentally the issue is really weak Chinese domestic demand which is a huge structural problem that's been papered over in the past with massive state spending, but that's reaching its limit as productive investment outlets are minimal and state debt is rising. Thats why real estate is suffering first, but other sectors have some impact (though deflation seems to really be concentrated in a few areas and the rest are fine). Exports also helped but China left its economic sweet spot in the 00s and has been putting off a badly needed restructuring. Eventually China needs to let the exchange rate adjust to a natural level but the issue is that it's two (really, three, but we will ignore rural areas) economies in a trench coat. One section of the economy wants a lower exchange rate to boost exports and manufacturing, another wants a higher exchange rate for imports and finance. Either the government rides out the current climate, which is very possible because they're pretty competent, or it has to make a decision that leads a lot of people very unhappy with them (but is good for long run growth).
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Aug 19, 2023 17:44
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Lingling Wei is a great China source both for the quality of her work, but also her sources (her grandfather was an OG Long Marcher). This is probably the best element from that article: https://twitter.com/modestproposal1/status/1693306965022171191 For those who can't see twitter, it's a background quote that Xi is unwilling to loosen direct control over the economy by boosting consumption. Which is basically what needs to happen eventually.
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Aug 20, 2023 23:07
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Ukraine definitely discourages conflict in the sense that it provides a reality check for any fantasies that Taiwan will roll over, quickly get annexed, and the west won't respond. But without being able to read Xi Jinping's mind no one can really say what the calculus us. It may be that it's an incentive to double and triple check preparations for the invasion, including making sure the Chinese economy can absorb shocks from western sanctions. The discouragement here definitely delays any attack if nothing else. Or it could tilt the risk-benefit analysis firmly into the negative territory by raising the potential costs so high that it's not worth it.
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Aug 31, 2023 14:52
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Dante80 posted:Yeah..I don't think that is the way China works. They are certainly playing the long game on this one. China is not some inscrutable political enigma. Xi has consolidated power around him in a way that no Chinese leader since Deng has, and he made that clear with the public humiliation of Jiang Zemin. This is a recipe for major problems as without checks and balances from other factions it's very easy to lose perspective and engage in grand personal projects. It's all dependent on Xi's personal thoughts and the problem is no one knows them.
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Aug 31, 2023 20:56
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Part of the issue is that none of the factions involved can really state what they want in clear terms: crudely speaking, the KMT wants to negotiate rejoining China with extensive privileges on par with Hong Kong (and their position has taken an obvious hit since Hong Kong was suppressed) while the DPP wants to be an independent country (but can't campaign on that without China throwing a tantrum). In the meantime both advocate for variations of the status quo that advance their preferred outcome. Right now, that consistently means deterring a Chinese invasion. KMT's position isn't contradictory when you consider they want closer relations with China, and eventual reunification, but with a lot of chips at the bargaining table so that they aren't just swallowed up. Having the US and Japan guarantee their special status, which the UK technically was supposed to do for HK, is part of that.
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Sep 18, 2023 15:47
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Well China is a big enough domestic market that they could pull off ISI to some degree, but it won't be the same pace of growth as before.
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Oct 30, 2023 17:15
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India vs China is an important story of different developmental models and I'd love recommendations on any literature on the subject.
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Nov 13, 2023 18:57
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Xi has consolidated power around him as much as one can consolidate power in a country of a billion people, often relying on extra judicial means and purging political opponents from public life (and possibly from literal life). It's pretty fair to say that he's a dictator. We can split hairs about how communism != dictatorship, by pointing to [example not found], but fundamentally Biden is correct. He's just impolitic.
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Nov 17, 2023 02:53
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Pettis's consistent theme is that China needs to generate domestic demand through consumption, not government activity. But this requires a big rebalance of the economy that will be very politically difficult, since right now wealth is funneled out of households and into businesses. He's not a finance guy, he's an international trade/macro guy. He's pretty critical of (economic) inequality for non-leftist reasons.
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Dec 25, 2023 18:31
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Charlz Guybon posted:That's a huge drop A lot of issues China is facing are very natural: overinvestment, declining birth rates, fun times with international lending. I'm curious how much they're being exacerbated by government policies: this is a WSJ article behind a paywall, but the sentiment inside China has very much shifted partly as a result of a more centralized government. The bit about the baby formula (above) really stood out to me since that's something on the surface unrelated to the authoritarian-lean. https://twitter.com/Lingling_Wei/status/1740225021627273639
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Jan 3, 2024 20:36
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As an isolated thing it's not bad, but it goes with a general trend of obfuscating economic data that has never really stopped and only ramped up. The issue isn't avoiding vibecessions, the issue is 1) not trusting official numbers or statements because you know the government is actively massaging things and 2) leaving individual actors unable to make rational decisions because economic data is either incorrect or they don't trust it when it is correct. The nasty shock is only put off for when it's no longer possible to hide the gap between capacity and output.
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Feb 12, 2024 19:26
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A good comparison here is maybe 538, where political operations began crafting polls specifically to be introduced into Nate Silver's models and make them look more favorable. This has the result of obviously making polling averages look better for them, but then everyone ends up working in a poor information environment and reality hasn't changed at all.
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Feb 13, 2024 03:52
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