Register a SA Forums Account here!
JOINING THE SA FORUMS WILL REMOVE THIS BIG AD, THE ANNOYING UNDERLINED ADS, AND STUPID INTERSTITIAL ADS!!!

You can: log in, read the tech support FAQ, or request your lost password. This dumb message (and those ads) will appear on every screen until you register! Get rid of this crap by registering your own SA Forums Account and joining roughly 150,000 Goons, for the one-time price of $9.95! We charge money because it costs us money per month for bills, and since we don't believe in showing ads to our users, we try to make the money back through forum registrations.
 
  • Post
  • Reply
Owling Howl
Jul 17, 2019

Beelzebufo posted:

Works for Israel :imunfunny:

Worked in Crimea.

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

Owling Howl
Jul 17, 2019
It seems being a billionaire in China is fickle business.

Forbes posted:

China Daily reported Friday that unnatural deaths have taken the lives of 72 mainland billionaires over the past eight years. (Do the math.)

Which means that if you're one of China's 115 current billionaires, as listed on the 2011 Forbes Billionaires List, you should be more than a little nervous.

Mortality rate notwithstanding, what's more disturbing is how these mega wealthy souls met their demise. According to China Daily, 15 were murdered, 17 committed suicide, seven died from accidents and 19 died from illness. Oh, yes, and 14 were executed. (Welcome to China.)

Owling Howl
Jul 17, 2019
The outcome of a US-China conflict over Taiwan seems like it would hinge on the stance taken by Japan and South Korea. If they stay strictly neutral and refuse to commit their own forces or allow the US use of any of their land bases, it's going to be real hard and risky to break local Chinese air superiority with just carriers and Taiwanese airfields.

Owling Howl
Jul 17, 2019

386-SX 25Mhz VGA posted:

I knew very little about China when I entered this thread and now I know even less :(

What is it about China that completely breaks Western brains, I don't see this kind of thing happening with like India

It's a challenge to the established order so the enemy of my enemy...

Owling Howl
Jul 17, 2019

Orange Devil posted:

Cus like, from my perspective the US government is an utter disaster for the entire planet and while there is absolutely no guarantee that them being replaced by a different hegemon will lead to improvement, I'm willing to give it a shot. Seems like a potential high upside and low risk (given that current trajectory is already catastrophe) gamble to be frank.

Well he's not saying it's worse or that you should care. He may or may not believe so but he didn't make those claims in those posts. He's claiming the Chinese government aims to replace the US and the US aims to prevent that.

Owling Howl
Jul 17, 2019

Raenir Salazar posted:

War sucks; pretending one country or another is uniquely responsible for the actions it takes to win is foolish.

Targetting civilian population centers would certainly be considered a war crime by modern standards so I really don't see why we should give the allies or the US/UN a pass on it.

I also don't think its an interesting critique of the US today given that the doctrine has been long abandoned and discredited.

Owling Howl
Jul 17, 2019

Raenir Salazar posted:

A full task force potentially has a lot of interceptors though.

I wonder how cheaply you could mass produce plastic drones with the ability to fly to a given coordinate to present a radar signature and just loiter there until it runs out of fuel. Seems like it would be fairly cheap if you make it disposable and strip out sensors and weapons. I guess missiles would be more expensive but still only a fraction of the cost of a real anti-ship missile.

If nothing else you could probably produce them faster than your enemy can produce interceptors.

Owling Howl
Jul 17, 2019

Rent-A-Cop posted:

How would this be helpful exactly?

I would suppose people would not be ok with a few thousand drones hanging out in the airspace above their navy assets so they would shoot at them which would deplete their stores of interceptors and munitions which is useful if you want to bomb them.

Edit: huh the US navy already made LOCUST. 15K for a disposable drone seems steep though.

Owling Howl fucked around with this message at 19:14 on Dec 31, 2021

Owling Howl
Jul 17, 2019

Clarste posted:

Well, the most important part is that this happened 70 years ago and most people who knew the country when it was united are dead.

Also it has never once been united under the current mainland government. Because, uh, they failed to win Taiwan.

Batista got the boot 60 years ago and the US is still being weird about it even though it's really none of their business. Now imagine if it had been an actual US state that was only independent because of Soviet or Chinese support.

Yeah things do not just stop mattering because time goes by. Humans don't work like that and nation states with security interests do not work like that.

Owling Howl
Jul 17, 2019

Yeowch!!! My Balls!!! posted:

the average person giving the remotest poo poo about who rules them is a pretty recent development in world history, you'll be surprised to hear.

not particularly relevant to this story, but interesting.

Well that's a relief. I thought Western colonial empires did great damage to their colonial subjects and indigenous peoples including cultural genocide but I guess it was no biggie.

Owling Howl
Jul 17, 2019

MarcusSA posted:

Honestly what happens if they don’t pay?

No one will lend you more money which is a problem of you rely on deficit spending. You could single out specific creditors, ie China, but other lenders will not consider that a particularly reassuring precedent so they would apply a premium in interest on future loans. China would probably treat it as a hostile action and use international institutions and law to get repayment and possibly apply economic and trade sanctions.

Owling Howl
Jul 17, 2019

SlothfulCobra posted:

With a small country, defaulting on debt might not be the worst thing, it's a bit complicated. I'd expect that usually most of the time people would be willing to restructure debt if things are bad, but if worst comes to worst and the country just decides it can't afford to keep paying, then if it's already pretty poor, starting over from square one on having to earn lenders' trust back isn't really being set that far back.

I guess worst case scenario, repayment of debts becomes casus beli for declaring war and actual imperialism to subjugate and extract value the of the loans, but that's...pretty rare, probably unlikely. With China's economy already stalling out a bit, and Xi having other clear ambitions, expensive military adventures to extract value from broke countries seems like a bad idea.

Debt doesn't go away if the creditor doesn't agree to it. You can't unilaterally decide to start over from square one. If you declare you can't pay but China doesn't care then all you've accomplished is make future debt more expensive without reducing your debt burden.

China is obviously not going to invade but it is a large economy and that gives leverage. If China slapped export tariffs on goods to certain countries that could easily plunge them into recession and spur social instability. For instance, China exports more to Kenya than the 2nd and 3rd export partners combined.

Owling Howl
Jul 17, 2019

ronya posted:

China got rich through exploiting... the West?

China's relationship with 3rd world nations appear to be identical to the western approach - buy raw materials while ignoring labor conditions and human rights and then sell back manufactured goods.

Owling Howl
Jul 17, 2019

golden bubble posted:

We have to remember that even though China has 400 million people in bright, advanced cities, that still leaves a billion people out in the provinces. The gap between the developed parts of China and the undeveloped ones are massive. In the US, the most wealthy states only have 2x median income of the worst (Mississippi) states. But there are a lot of rural Chinese provinces that have 1/4th the median income of Shanghai or Tianjin.

That also leaves a lot of room for growth.


Industry and services generate a lot more GDP than agriculture so China still has large labor potential in a more productive agricultural sector. In terms of GDP growth I think China is in a place where it's more about quality than quantity though. Growth will depend on how well their tertiary sector performs and how well they can transition from low-tech to high-tech manufacturing not how many workers they can put on the assembly lines.

Owling Howl
Jul 17, 2019
If the US launches attacks from an aircraft carrier against Chinese ships or bases then that carrier is a legitimate target and any whining about attacks on it being an escalation is absurd. You don't get to unilaterally declare your airbase off-limits just because it's very valuable to you.

Owling Howl
Jul 17, 2019
Well US ships loitering in the area will impact China's risk assesment. Nothing really stops China from boarding and seizing Philippine supply ships or imposing a blockade on the area - on a purely technical and economic level they have that capability.

If the Phillipines stood entirely alone they would likely back down quickly or be beaten down in short order If push comes to shove. Either way the issue ends up in a UN committee to be forgotten while China retains effective control of the area.

But what would the US do? Probably neither China or the Phillipines know for sure but that uncertainty might embolden the Phillipine government to gamble while China might be more restrained since they almost certainly do not want a wider or protracted conflict. They want the Phillipines to leave the area - not start a war.

Owling Howl
Jul 17, 2019

Dopilsya posted:

As far as "US did a coup" this is nonsense not backed by the evidence at all. Frankly, I think your claim hinges on the idea that a critical mass of people in the "global south" (another monolithizing term I dislike) are infantile sheeple and when the OAS (who is really Soros, or the CIA, or whatever) issue a report alleging irregularities they jump immediately to carry out the wishes of their masters.

Pretty cool you can coup governments by issuing reports though. The OAS really has enormous power - probably even more than the Vatican or the Bilderberg group.

Owling Howl
Jul 17, 2019

V. Illych L. posted:

if the charitable interpretation is that the post is meant to counter a claim which other than the one explicitly made (in this case it's unclear what the precise claim being rebutted would be - everyone who lived to see the soviet union liked it? some people liked the soviet union? people in the satellites didn't like the soviet union? the latter is plausible, but not supported at all by the provided evidence), i think charity is doing us something of a disservice. it's also notably asymmetrical; it requires the claim being rebutted to be a much broader one than is apparently put forward, so we'd be assuming a suspicious reading of neuroliminal's post to provide a charitable reading of i fly airplanes' post

The claim seems to be "People liked the USSR" implying "People liked communism" but capitalist propaganda turned younger generations against it. I think it's a somewhat useless observation. The USSR had incredible amounts of resources at its disposal - chiefly oil, gas and coal - so it would be a matter of staggering incompetence if they had somehow managed to build a society that benefitted no one.

It's like saying people enjoy living in Norway so therefore capitalism is good or people enjoy living in Saudi Arabia so therefore monarchism is good.

China is not gifted with infinite piles of money so it would have been a more instructive and representative sample of a centrally planned economy had they still been doing that.

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

Owling Howl
Jul 17, 2019

V. Illych L. posted:

in a way it's more surprising that we haven't seen a push towards such intervention from e.g. germany

It might be convenient for the government but I think the upper class very much prefers to have as accurate information as possible to make their investment decisions and they do not particularly care if it makes the current stable of politicians look bad. In any case lying about it while the underlyjng numbers steadily deteroriate is just pissing yourself to stay warm in a snowstorm.

  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
  • Post
  • Reply