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golden bubble posted:So basically the same story as in And the US population has an 80/20 urban/rural split vs the Chinese 28/72. I'm nowhere close to a Chinese expert, and being military/federal government makes a lot of input I get obviously skewed. But just looking at numbers and reports, I don't see China being able to maintain the level of growth that is making people freak out so much, even when controlling for general global trends. They seem to be making all the same mistakes any up and coming superpower makes economically and culturally with the added baggage that comes with centralized, authoritarian rule. They have a giant military but no real combat experience. They have all the economic power and can't seem to leverage it without pissing everyone off. I may be completely off base, but it seems like they want to act like the U.S. did back in the late 19th century or Germany before World War 1 without realizing that the world just doesn't work on that axis anymore. They've gained all the power but haven't learned any of the subtlety on how to use it. Feel free to smack me down if you disagree. AlternateNu fucked around with this message at 22:29 on Aug 11, 2023 |
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Aug 11, 2023 22:18
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| # ¿ May 6, 2024 12:00 |
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khwarezm posted:Did you read my post? I'm saying its stupid to assume that China won't change and continue to be harshly immigrant just because its China. Countries change, especially when economic reality sets in, most of Europe prior to World War 2 was relentlessly hostile to allowing in immigrants, Australia had its 'white Australian' policy until the 1970s. Yeah. But that kind of speculation is kind of meaningless without something to back it up. "Europe did it" is only a useful analogy if you can show how China is similar to those European countries at the time of their change of policy.
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Aug 11, 2023 23:30
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Let's just say the chances China shifts their immigration policy that far is approximately equal to the chance Russia just gives up and pulls out of Ukraine. It's possible! But not terribly likely and would require a massive short term shift in leadership and a lot of awkward post hoc justification.
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Aug 12, 2023 01:18
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fart simpson posted:justification of what? why are you saying this? this is just “nuh uh!” with more words Because there has been almost zero historical trends for modern China to embrace higher levels of non-educated immigrants. That was practically a plank of Mao’s reforms after the revolution. And while some changes have been made over the last 15 years or so, immigration policy discussion in the PRC invariably revolves around strict controls, and permanent residency for only those of economic worth. Hell, wasn’t it up until 2014 or so that a lot of immigration regulation was just enforced at the local level allowing a lot of selective crackdowns when the locals got riled up? https://www.migrationpolicy.org/article/china-development-transformed-migration Remember, this whole argument was a question on the chances China would embrace a more relaxed immigration policy due the economic effects of their aging population. I can’t prove a negative. The onus is on you guys to show they’ve seriously considered the proposal. And the only responses you’ve given are “the West used to be racist too” and “what makes you think they aren’t flexible!?”
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Aug 12, 2023 14:41
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SlothfulCobra posted:Politically, I think it's not likely China will invade Taiwan any time soon, and I'd mostly leave it at that, and only reconsider the possibility if there's any major unrest in Taiwan or if there's any major saber-rattling from the PRC. Xi has repeatedly listed 2025 as the point he wants China to be "ready" for forced reunification if necessary. That said, the country's recent spat of issues has likely delayed that timeline at least somewhat. Also, along the same lines with India, it would be hilarious if China tried to carve off that little chunk of Russian land they're now claiming. https://apnews.com/article/china-map-territorial-dispute-south-sea-702c45165d7f9cade796700fffa5691e Any sort of military move on any of the newly claimed land on their official map will basically cause all of their neighbors to start build ups on their borders. I don't quite understand the reasoning behind this move, though. Even if it is there as red meat to the nationalist hardliners, they're just weakening their position on the national stage even more.
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Sep 3, 2023 13:30
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It isn't Clancychat to discuss China's ability to project within the second island chain which is what 99% of China vs. U.S./the West/the world are really discussing since that is stated to be their biggest near-term goal. They don't "intend" to be a current U.S. level superpower until the late 2030s/early 2040s.
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Sep 5, 2023 03:07
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Mustang posted:What is known about the PLA's training and readiness? All the fanciest equipment in the world is useless if the organization and people operating them aren't up to the task. The framing I'm getting from the folks I know on the front lines is that even as recent as 5 or 10 years ago, Chinese training exercises and developmental work-ups were pretty lackadaisical affairs, more concerned with the PR and politics involved than actual readiness. But that has done a massive 180 in the last few years. They've seemed to realize their biggest liability is their lack of actual combat experience and operational hours on their new platforms. And it is something they're now pounding into their operators' heads that they're automatically going to be working with a disadvantage against any near-peer. The best teacher is always going to be actual combat and strategic planning for major operations: Something they've yet to really experience. Of course, that's all second-hand. No one is going to know, particularly the PLA, until the bullets start flying.
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Sep 5, 2023 23:08
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Raenir Salazar posted:The United States is big you realize? Are they all stationed out of California/Hawaii or are some by New Jersey and need to go through the Canal or around the other way? The Pacific ocean is also pretty big. Also not all of those bases are likewise anywhere near China, but in Western Europe, in South America, in the continental US, the Middle East, the Indian Ocean (also big and not near China). Essentially anything docked in the continental US, especially in Norfolk is effectively not going to be in the fight. While I agree with the majority of your points, that last bit is highly dependent on how you define "in the fight." A CVN deployed out of Norfolk can reach the SCS in just over two weeks. They wouldn't have their screen with them but could easily link up with CRUDES out of Pearl or San Diego.
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Sep 5, 2023 23:15
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Dante80 posted:Ah yes we must close the...checks notes..."shipbuilding capacity gap" ?!? I thought this was pretty well known. Chinese shipyards have been cranking out ships like crazy. It's been one of the major lynchpins of Xi's military build-up. The exact numbers are kind of muddled because of how much the state controls their commercial shipbuilding infrastructure, but China definitely has a higher building capacity than the U.S.
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Sep 23, 2023 13:58
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The AP is confirming the cabinet “shift”. https://apnews.com/article/china-defense-minister-us-taiwan-8bbb77e5e37e5427cb8cc79b6e8d2b22
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Oct 24, 2023 19:04
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Dante80 posted:If I would wager a guess, I think that Manila feels emboldened enough to do this now as a way of keeping the pressure on the US, given Ukraine and Palestine taking the spotlight away from SCS. Marcos very quickly made a deal with the U.S. to rebuild a U.S. naval and air presence on island. So, I have no doubt a lot of this is calculated to irk the Chinese with the understanding our increased presence there in the near future will be enough to deter China from doing anything too drastic.
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Nov 12, 2023 21:43
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i fly airplanes posted:https://www.politico.eu/article/chinas-paranoid-purge-xi-jinping-li-keqiang-qin-gang-li-shangfu/  I knew about the ministers' disappearances over the last year, but I wasn't aware of alot of the dots connecting them to the bog-standard authoritarian culling of threats to the head honcho.
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Dec 7, 2023 20:21
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Terper posted:Hi friend, I recommend this youtube channel lol. This is a joke right?
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Jan 20, 2024 19:22
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| # ¿ May 6, 2024 12:00 |
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So, every year, USINDOPACOM hosts a science & technology conference in Honolulu which typically brings in about 1700 attendees and presenters from across the US's allied spectrum and the MIC. It happened about a month ago. On day 2 in the main ballroom, there was a panel on Joint Intermediate Force Capabilities with a panel made up primarily of folks from the JIFCO. The guest panelist was MGEN Arvin Lagamon who is the Deputy Chief of Staff for Civil-Military Operations for the Philippines. For obvious reasons, panels and panelists are generally refrained from calling out China in specific terms during these open sessions. But I guess something changed because the JIFCO panel was basically 20 minutes of JIFC stuff and then 40 minutes of Lagamon calling out China including refutations of the Nine-Dash Line and claims over Taiwan. He had slides and all. It was kind of funny.
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Apr 14, 2024 19:49
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