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skysedge
May 26, 2006

Riptor posted:

But from the ROC's side all I really get is

-They feel that they are the legitimate government and were historically so.

But no one in Taiwan actually thinks they'll someday reclaim the whole of the PRC, will they? Why wouldn't it be better to just say "nope, we're totally just Taiwan now and you know what? We're fine with that"


Well, aside from a few diehards, most people in Taiwan have no illusions over controlling/wanting to control the mainland. Back in the early 90s then President Lee already stated that the ROC had no intention of contesting PRC rule anywhere except "the Free Area of the ROC".

Today even the mainstream KMT has more or less tacitly adopted the ROC=Taiwan position. A few days ago, when a controversial retired ROC general schmoozing in Xian made some statements about the PLA and ROC Armed Forces both being "China's Army", the condemnation was pretty much bipartisan in Taipei.

The main issue with formalizing this position is that by formally rescinding claims over mainland China as codified in the 1947 ROC Constitution, you more or less end up with One China One Taiwan (de jure independence for Taiwan), or Two Chinas. The PRC has vehemently opposed both positions (see the PRC's reaction to then President Lee's "Special State to State Relations" in 1999), but conventional wisdom says that Beijing would rather see the continuation of the (now extensively amended, except for national territory) 1947 Constitution, since it establishes some type of bond between Taiwan and mainland China (while also making Taipei's position look absurd).

So in practice, the modern day ROC conveniently ignores the mainland claims, and most Taiwanese (north or south), generally identify with Taiwan first and foremost with "reconquer the Mainland" being a relic of the past.

Edit: ROC Constitution was ratified in 1947, not 1949.

skysedge fucked around with this message at 18:31 on Feb 15, 2012

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skysedge
May 26, 2006

shots shots shots posted:

Hard green (Taiwanese) areas/people often speak Taiwanese instead of Mandarin and don't consider themselves Chinese at all, whereas the blue KMT areas/people identify strongly with Chinese culture and the idea of an ethnic Chinese state. Many of these people are descended from 外生人 (waishengren, people who fled the communists), but are not limited to those people. You'll often hear really racist stuff from KMT supporters, including statements like the recent "Chinese shouldn't interbreed with aboriginals and dilute pure Chinese blood" from a KMT politician.

Tl;dr, it's a cultural and economic gap between the rich north of Taiwan and the poor south that is also very tied up in ethnicity/language.

Well partially, albeit its more complicated then that. If you've watched KMT political campaigns since at least 2008 (if not earlier), you'll find that they go to extraordinary lengths trying to convince voters that they "love Taiwan" and pursue "Taiwan first"-policies. Public opinion increasingly reflects that more and more people self-identify as Taiwanese rather than Chinese. Running for office on a platform of Chinese unification in Taiwan is tantamount to electoral suicide. Rather, closer relations with the PRC as promoted by the current KMT administration are usually crouched in economic terms: "Since Beijing objects to de jure independence, stick to de facto independence so we can try to make money off them." The whole thing is usually summed up as "No unification, no independence, no war".

National Chengchi University polling data on Taiwanese self-identity from 1992 - 2011
Green = "Taiwanese only", blue = "Chinese only", pink = "Both", and black = "No response".

skysedge fucked around with this message at 17:36 on Feb 15, 2012

skysedge
May 26, 2006

eSports Chaebol posted:

It seems like the opposite position would be more feasible for a final settlement of the issue though: for Taiwan to accede to being part of the PRC's One China in name, but not in deed, like some kind of Super-SAR.

At the risk of derailing the thread, here's my NT$2 on the issue as a Taiwanese-American currently serving in the ROC military.

It seems almost natural these days for people looking at the China-Taiwan issue to focus almost entirely on the PRC position. And of course, it does seem natural to focus on the PRC's position on the issue, since essentially the initiative on the issue is mostly controlled by Beijing. But I find that this results to the position and opinions of people in Taiwan relegated to a brief footnote, if even that. International media coverage of Taiwan is sporadic, at best, usually consisting of a few reporters from Beijing or Hong Kong bureaus parachuted into Taipei around election time, spend a few days in the city, and assume that they've seen all of Taiwan, crouching everything in terms of the KMT-CCP Civil War even though only around 15% of the current population traces ancestry to the 1949 migration (a distinction that has become less and less important as the '49-ers die out).

The population of Taiwan is currently 23 million, slightly greater than Australia, about 3 times that of Hong Kong, and twice that of Portugal. So here you've got 23 million people accustomed to living in a de facto independent state with its own elected government accountable only to them, armed forces, a really nice public health care system, and all those other trappings that people in other countries take for granted. Not to mention a fair amount of pride in where they're from, and a continuing level of resentment at Beijing's attempts to push unification (not just limited to the pro-TI green camp). People here look at how One Country Two Systems is going in Hong Kong (universal suffrage for the HK Legislative Council delayed yet again, tensions between HK-ers and mainland migrants) and see little appeal in becoming just another SAR.

Now yes, if it comes down to raw power and population, the 23 million here are dwarfed by the 1.3 billion across the strait. But how seriously invested in the idea of a PRC controlled Taiwan is a farmer in Shanxi, compared to resistance to that idea by a farmer in Tainan?

Riding the train back home from base I often run into the many PRC tourists visiting Taiwan, and am constantly asked if I can loan them the newspaper I'm reading after I'm done, while they talk in amazed tones about what they've seen. With the level of cross straits exchange increasing, people from the PRC are increasingly exposed to the idea that most people in Taiwan are in favor of good relations, but not unification.

So in conclusion, I have no idea how things will pan out in the future. Maybe unification will happen on Beijing's terms as some in this thread think it will, or maybe the PRC will change. At the risk of sounding emotional, all I can say is that as far as I'm concerned, each day not spent under PRC rule is a victory for us.

skysedge
May 26, 2006

Riptor posted:

This just blew my mind. I had no idea citizens of the PRC could travel to Taiwan. I would think the PRC wouldn't want that, no?

What exactly is the PRC's policy on tourism and travel by citizens? Do people have any limited rights? Places they can't go a la US-Cuba? Is it just prohibitively expensive for most people?

PRC citizens have been able to visit Taiwan in large group tours for the last couple of years, and as independent travelers since last year. There are also a small number of PRC students studying at universities here, with talk of increasing the quota allowed. From what I understand, approval is required from PRC authorities, while on our side its more or less a standard tourist visa app (only not called a "visa").

The interest in these things from this side of the strait is mostly economic, while many of the PRC tourists come expecting to see ether a Cold War ROC theme park (much like western tourists find North Korea), or that surreal place where all those TV dramas are filmed. Many are surprised that modern day Taiwan is generally neither (but the night markets and scenery rock!).

skysedge fucked around with this message at 03:29 on Feb 16, 2012

skysedge
May 26, 2006

BrotherAdso posted:

First of all, thank you for bringing a well thought out and well written opinion from the ground level to the thread. This is really valuable input.

And thank you for letting me sound off on it.

BrotherAdso posted:

As far as the ROC viewpoint on the sovereignty issue -- do you feel like you are unusually politically involved and interested by virtue of being in the military or well educated? Because while you have a great deal of interest in independence and Taiwanese national pride, is your level of interest mirrored by the poor noodle-seller in the night market or the 7-11 clerks and managers or the native Taiwanese villagers? You do have to face the same question that the Chinese face with your hypothetical farmer in Shaanxi with the population of Taiwan, ultimately.

This is a fair question, and yes, I consider myself more politically engaged than most, although not on the level of being one of those people who shows up at campaign rallies or can't talk about anything but politics 24/7. As for being in the military, I am a draftee in my late 20s currently fulfilling my 1 year service obligation. For what its worth, I'm an enlisted airman stationed at an air defense missile battery on constant high alert. This is not considered to be a cushy position, and my fellow airmen have backgrounds ranging from grad school to high school dropout, so I'd like to think that I have regular exposure to a decently-sized cross section of young people here.

I'd say that there is an overwhelming consensous here that we'd prefer to remain separate from the PRC, although we all differ on whether such a thing is feasible in the long term, or how best to pursue ties with the PRC without giving them more leverage than they have. Few argue for outright independence now, and even fewer for unification. Again, right now the consensus seems to be to ride things out for as long as possible.

The overriding concern for many people here is the economy, which has been one of the main arguments for the increased level of PRC tourism, as well as the ECFA (Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement - sort of a preferential trade agreement) signed between Taipei and Beijing in 2010. The general opinion is that it has been good for corporations with large business operations in the PRC, and large tour / hotel operators. However, despite growth in GDP, the distribution has been non-uniform with income disparity growing in recent years. There is also a considerable amount of apprehension about the loss of jobs as the manufacturing industry outsources across the strait, as well as the loss of proprietary technology, and giving the PRC more leverage.

Additionally, part of the rationale from the Ma Administration in pushing ECFA was that it would lead to the signing of free trade agreements with other countries - a major concern since Taiwan is excluded from ASEAN+6. There has been little progress on that front so far (it is believed that Beijing opposes such moves, since they would decrease economic reliance on the PRC). Ma has recently stated his intent to pursue membership in the U.S.-led Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP), though again, there are challenges to that as well.

As I mentioned earlier, even the KMT's official position that they've been campaigning on is on safeguarding Taiwanese sovereignty (through that of the ROC), while delivering economic benefits through trade with the PRC. If safeguarding ROC/Taiwan sovereignty was not an issue that resonated with the majority of the electorate, I doubt they'd go out of their way to emphasize it as strongly as they do. That's the beauty of democracy.

BrotherAdso posted:

Second, I absolutely agree that the HK experience with "one country, two systems" has been a disheartening, disillusioning failure for the Hong Kong political class and middle class. Do you feel like most Taiwanese see the same thing happening there in the event of closer administrative, social, and economic ties with the mainland? Or do you and others see a way forward that avoids the kind of political strangling that has gone on in Taiwan?

Again, there is little doubt amongst most people here that One Country Two Systems is undesirable, as recent events in Hong Kong have shown. The question is how best to avoid it, and whether or not it is indeed avoidable in the long term? I've heard everything from "Finlandization", to an East Asian version of NATO.

Part of being a small country is that people here often feel that things are out of our control, as a passive chip in the superpower game. Most of the people I have talked to who support unification (or at least, seem fatalistically passive towards it) do so out of the opinion that there is no way to avoid it, rather than it actually being a desirable state of affairs. Even more people prefer simply to avoid thinking about it (leave it to future generations, they say).

For now, the overall opinion seems to be to ride things out for as long as possible, which might as well be defined as a form of Taiwan independence. The mainstream blue viewpoint is that Taiwan is part of the ROC, while the mainstream green view is that the ROC is part of Taiwan. Subtle differences, but not too difficult to reconcile for most people.

BrotherAdso posted:

Finally, how has cross straits exchange begun effecting Taiwanese? While Chinese folks may seem amazed at the things they see in more open media in Taiwan, are Taiwanese horrified/amazed when they travel to Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and other major commercial hubs?

My opinion on the slow course of changing ties between the two entities is a couple posts up, and I would really like your commentary on it, too.

The level of cross-straits interchange has been increasing continuously, although this has also been paralleled by a continuous increase in Taiwanese identity. Many people have visited the PRC, and/or have business ties in the PRC. This is anecdotal, but again, this seems to be driven more by economic interests (there are tons of reports on how "you too can get rich quick in China"). There is no flood of Taishang (Taiwanese businessmen) rushing to apply for PRC citizenship. The PRC is typically viewed as being a place of great power and growth potential, but also great income disparity, unstable and corrupt beneath the surface, with Byzantine political power struggles hidden behind closed doors.

PRC folk, especially tourists, are often stereotyped as being loud, with little respect for rules or tact (but loaded with cash). There is often genuine public outrage over real or perceived slights from PRC visitors, and stories of PRC tourists or students demanding that the ROC flag be removed wherever they go, or making loud proclamations along the lines of "looking forward to the unification of the motherland" . Its probably not fair to tar all PRC citizens with the same brush, but again, I suppose it is human nature to focus on the 1 person who is being unpleasant, rather then the 5 people who aren't.

Edit: To address your last point: Yes, the PRC has offered aid several times during natural disasters in the past. However there is enough distrust about Beijing's intentions that it is politically impossible for the government to accept all but a token amount. Having the PLA deliver the aid is straight off the table.

skysedge fucked around with this message at 05:38 on Feb 16, 2012

skysedge
May 26, 2006

shots shots shots posted:

Also, it's unusual for people with American citizenship (who primarily live in the states) to serve in the conscription. Many just use their American passports and get if they live there, get separate visas, never claiming an ID card. Also, with the phaseout of conscription, there's the option of waiting until conscription is over.

I'd bet there's a good reason for that poster to be serving.

A sense of civic duty, plus an intention to settle permanently in Taiwan where the rest of my family lives when I'm done. :) Its not common, but far from rare these days.

skysedge
May 26, 2006

shots shots shots posted:

The usual scheme is for your family to hold your ID card while you secure a separate ARC. Your family then uses your ID for various forms of tax evasion. Since Taiwan has no official relations, you can be two separate people. The US doesn't even tell Taiwan about all the Taiwanese politicians who hold dual citizenship.

Yes, another scheme is to simply apply for expatriate status, which means that you're not subject to conscription as long as you don't stay for longer than 6 months at a time (visa run ahoy!). I figured that I'd rather not leave the country twice a year for the rest of my life, just to avoid 1 year of service. Besides, I figured that if any country on Earth has justification for conscription, the ROC/Taiwan is it.

I could go on and on about all the bullshit I've seen in the military, but somehow, we manage to make do in the end. I don't regret deciding to serve, even if I do wish the environment could have been better.

skysedge
May 26, 2006

BrotherAdso posted:

Yes, but a substantial number of draftees:

1) Don't take their twelve months (recently reduced) too seriously -- at least, that's the impression I have ancedotally, and I have no data to back it up. Their continuing push to go volunteer seems to support my idea though.

The quality of ROC military units varies depending where you go. As a general rule, the units comprised almost entirely of volunteers tend to be very professional and squared away, while the conscript heavy units tend to be less so (National Guard levels of quality or below). As you mentioned, the trend is now to go to an all volunteer force by 2014, although males reaching draft age will still be subject to 4 months basic training.

There's a common saying amongst draftees here: "Nothing is real except your discharge papers". Most of us would rather be doing something else, but for better or worse, here we are. From my experience in what I'd subjectively term as a substandard backwater combat unit, many conscripts (and even some career troops, unfortunately) do nothing except the bare minimum, if even that. On the other hand, there are always troops who do their best to keep things running, in spite of the former group.

BrotherAdso posted:

2) Have other options, just like in Korea. I'll let him contribute, but he either chose or got military service instead of the many other alternate civil service routes. If he wants to explain his background, I'll be curious if he went in at 19 or got a deferment for education.

There is alternative service for those who qualify (physical disability, special talents, nepotism), but most draftees still end up in the military. Conscripts ending up in the military are usually considered unskilled labor, with more technical / demanding billets reserved for career troops.

Most draftees would prefer to end up as REMFs. I speak English and Mandarin with native levels of fluency, having grown up in both the US and Taiwan, and have an advanced degree in engineering. Everyone in basic was convinced I'd end up as an REMF. For some reason or another, I didn't, and ended up as a grunt. When I reported to my current unit, my CO (who had already seen my file) asked me straight out: "What on Earth are you doing here?".

After talking to some colleagues from basic who ended up as REMFs, and spend their days riding desks, I don't regret it.

Anyhow, I'm headed back on duty today. Thanks for this thread, I'll be following with interest the next time I'm out on leave (assuming it doesn't get deferred again!).

skysedge
May 26, 2006

french lies posted:

Seriously, don't continue this derail. Either take it to another thread or stop.

I've started listening to back episodes of Sinica, which I really recommend if you're into China news. In the one I'm listening to now, they went over the Taiwan elections, and the suzhi argument for why democracy won't work in China.

If you don't know what this is, it's a common belief among urban Chinese who essentially argue that rural Chinese would screw things up if elections ever were held. This is because the sum of their moral, spiritual and intellectual quality, otherwise known as suzhi, is too low to make informed decisions.

If you live in China, I'm sure you've heard some version of this argument before. And personally, I've remained skeptical that the success of Taiwan can scale to match the needs of the PRC. But hearing the example of Indonesia mentioned in the podcast, I'm starting to reassess my opinions.

Do you guys have any input on this? Do you think democracy is feasible in China, considering the scope and size of the country?

I really don't buy the suzhi argument. Consider the events that took place in Wukan last December. Rural peasants protesting against corrupt local officials revolted, expelling local CCP officials and police. The protestors elected representatives, and remained remarkably peaceful, despite one of them being abducted and tortured to death by police. The entire episode ended with a peaceful agreement to resolve the villagers grievances. The villagers don't seem too much like people of low "moral, spiritual, and intellectual quality" to me, unless you define such qualities to consist solely of access to Gucchi and Prada stores.

Although since it was mentioned, I am curious whether the majority of "angry youth" (fenching) hail from the urban middle class, or the rural lower classes.

Before democratization here in Taiwan, you heard the same arguments from the ruling KMT elite: that most people were too unsophisticated to handle democracy, that they needed a long period of tutalige (under the benevolent gaze of the KMT elites, of course) before full democracy could be instituted. Somehow, that day never seemed to come as long as said individuals were in charge - as late as the early 90s hardliners were still waving their hands arguing that full democracy would / was bringing chaos.

And yes, while the early years had chaos in abundance, people adapted, the country changed, and as democracy became entrenched, things stabilized. Less than two months ago we had a presidential election complete with televised debates, vigorous campaigning, and full suffrage. The world didn't end, the losers congratulated the winners, and the winners didn't have the losers arrested and shot.

What I'm trying to get at is, the best way to develop democracy is by its actual practice, not some form of paternal tutalege by elites who are usually more interested in preserving their monopoly on power.

skysedge
May 26, 2006

PrezCamachoo posted:

What does Taiwan typically do about mainland Chinese fishing boats entering its territory?

We read them strongly worded statements over loudspeakers.

There are occasional boardings and cat and mouse chases. No one says much of anything about them.

Modus Operandi posted:

They are probably owned by joint Taiwanese-Chinese business ventures to begin with.

Many Taiwanese fishing boats hire Chinese deckhands. They're allowed to dock in Taiwanese ports with the boat during inclement weather, but not disembark. The rest of the time, Chinese deckhands for hire between jobs tend to spend their time on fishing boats anchored further out near the high seas locally dubbed "floating motels".

skysedge
May 26, 2006

Warcabbit posted:



When we were needed, we were there. It is true we served under the man that later became Mao's enemy, but when we were there, we fought for China and China's freedom, not that man.

Do they tell the story of the Flying Tigers in Chinese schools?

Can't speak for the other side of the strait, but we still have at least one statue of Clare Chennault on one of our air force bases, and have marching songs about the Flying Tigers. One of those vestigial things that still lingers in the ROCAF.

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skysedge
May 26, 2006

flatbus posted:

I have a dumb question here. What can you get away with firing at the other side before it's considered war? Water cannons are nonlethal, but with the right set of coincidences, maybe if you knock someone accidentally into a bulkhead and they suffer a head injury or something, or if they go overboard after being injured or something, I can imagine a lethal incident. I feel if anything fatal happens the other side will probably back down and dismiss it (after protests) like when DPRK shelled those islands. But the image at the top of this article on Japan firing on Taiwanese ships with water cannons caught eye.

I don't know much about ships, but aren't those two really close? As in, if someone makes a mistake they could potentially scrape each other. What would that cause?

<Taiwanese angst>
I just find it amusing that pretty much every foreign press article I've read on the whole water pistol fight basically files the whole issue of Taiwan's participation as a subset of the Japan-China dispute. And the expert being interviewed on Al Jazzera is from Hong Kong (who, BTW, basically subsumes Taiwan's postion into China's position). Sad... asking someone in Hong Kong what Taiwan's position is. Ah well... we're used to being ignored, even if we're the party with a capital closest to the islands.
</Taiwanese angst>

Anyhow, I made a post in the Taiwan thread about the whole political background on this in Taiwan. Despite the water cannon fight, there really isn't a general sense of outrage on the streets in Taiwan. Most people are like "What's the big deal with some rocks", or "Well, glad the Coast Guard is actually doing something for once, rather than getting abducted by Chinese fishermen." My personal reading of this (for what its worth), is President Ma attempting to look strong in protecting Taiwanese rights (something he's often been accused of failing to do when it comes to China), while posturing for talks on fishing rights.

Japan is not going to alienate Taiwan, seeing as we're generally on good terms, both officially and in terms of public opinion. For all the official bluster, Taiwan is not going to alienate Japan either. The fishermen are more interested in the right to fish in what they consider to be their traditional fishing grounds rather than anything regarding Chinese nationalism. And few here want to see a PRC outpost that close to mainland Taiwan.

Did make for some interesting pictures in the papers though:


Also, note the banner on the fishing boat: "Diaoyutai is part of Taiwan". This is not something that can be subsumed under the banner of Chinese nationalism.

skysedge fucked around with this message at 17:23 on Sep 26, 2012

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