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GhostofJohnMuir
Aug 14, 2014

anime is not good
Is this going to be a legit homegrown stealth fighter or F-2 'homegrown'? It's a little hard to tell from the article.

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GhostofJohnMuir
Aug 14, 2014

anime is not good
What's the point of writing a biography if you don't touch on the central and defining moments and issues of a persons life? Like white wash it or justify it in an active way at least, how can you write 12,000 pages of simply avoiding the issue?

GhostofJohnMuir
Aug 14, 2014

anime is not good
Did the current princess get super forced into marriage? I've heard some really terrible things about the situation surrounding the courtship from some people, but I don't know enough about the general situation to know if my source is just biased.

GhostofJohnMuir
Aug 14, 2014

anime is not good

ErIog posted:

So umm, what the hell's going on with Kenji Goto? They're saying now that they're gonna murder him if the Japanese government can't force the government of Jordan to agree to a 2 for 1 prisoner swap before sundown today (about 3 hours from now).

Jordan seems like they're going for the swap, but they're really only focused on their pilot, I'm a little afraid Goto might fall through the cracks if the Jordanians are handling the details of the exchange.

GhostofJohnMuir
Aug 14, 2014

anime is not good

Grouchio posted:

Supply-side inflation? Something else?

the bank of japan is pointedly avoiding raising interest rates, which is out of step with most other central banks around the world. they're continuing their years long desperate quest to force an increase in consumption in the face of stagnant population growth

other currencies are now more attractive as short-term investments due to better interest rates, so people sell yen to buy dollars and euros. this weakens the yen, which makes imports into japan more expensive and exports less expensive

this is just what i've picked up as an american who occasionally reads bad articles in the economist. there's probably a bunch of things going on that i have no idea about

GhostofJohnMuir
Aug 14, 2014

anime is not good

Xelkelvos posted:

It was stated early on he had gone into cardiac arrest.

Edit: idk if it's standard procedure there to not have the rotors already going when loading someone up for medivac as that seems like fairly significant indication of how in a hurry they might be to get him to a hospital

i don't know about emergency medevacs, but i do know that helicopters in general are so dangerous to approach that the wildland fire incident response pocket guide's front cover is a diagram of the "safe approach" zone of a helicopter. enough guys got taken out by rotors that they felt you should have that reminder whenever you even glance at the guide

it wouldn't surprise me if not having the rotors going is the rule in any situation

GhostofJohnMuir
Aug 14, 2014

anime is not good

stephenthinkpad posted:

I was listening to a Chinese podcast, their comments on the Abe fraction getting kicked was that actually the Abe faction was the one who wanted more independent monetary policy. And at this time the US is at the critical point of transitional from hiking interest rate to lower rate and start QE again, they wanted Japan to increase their rate to encourage capital flight and burst the market bubble, which will help suck the capital back to US, just when the Febs is lowering the rate.

Supposedly the Abe faction didn't want to do it and they got kicked. I am not a finance guy so I don't know whether this rumor is true. But we will know in a few months.

Couple of thoughts from the financial side.

First the fed is looking to lower rates, but calling it quantitative easing feels inaccurate. Qe usually refers to bond purchases by a central bank as a last resort to spur growth when rates are already set at zero. It's essentially jamming the accelerator as hard as you can. What the fed has suggested its planning on next year is much closer to easing off the brake slightly. Even if the feds cut to the lowest internal estimate, it will be around 4 percent at the end of 2024, way way above the average for the last two decades. In fact the fed is currently selling bonds it accumulated during qe, which is quantitative tightening, and I've seen nothing to indicate that will change in the next six months to a year.

Secondly, monetary policy is incredibly imprecise and unpredictable. It's nearly impossible to guess when and how effects will show up beyond very vague estimates, and even those are often wrong. The economic establishment was sure that the feds policies would lead to some kind of recession in America this year. Terms like 100% certainty were being thrown out by most bank's analysts. Instead the country saw sustained growth that defied a global trend. Trying to plan around the effects of two interlocking rates is a very dubious endeavor, there is a likelihood that events in each country won't manifest in the same year let alone the same quarter.

Thirdly, both the fed and boj are nominally independent from the government. Now of course there is always some level of influence from elected officials that can have some effect on policy, and im not familiar enough with the bojs leadership to make any definitive statements on their true level of independence. Maybe the ldp does have that level of influence, I leave that as an open question to the thread. However on the US side, I am confident that the fed can and will stick their finger in the eye of a presidential administration if they feel the situation warrants. So the Biden administration can read the signs and guess about fed policy is likely to be next year, but if the state department is throwing it's weight around to get to control of Japan's rates, they're doing it with no solid guarantee that is rates will move as anticipated.

Fourthly, it's not really clear what the incentive is supposed to be. Raising rates while other countries slash tends to attract foreign deposits(if one country has an overnight rate of 5% and the other is at -0.1 all else being equal you park your money with the currency that offers the higher rate), which is why the boj has had to make currency interventions to prop up the yen twice in the last few years. So the proposed action would actually encourage capital flows to Japan in terms of cash and bonds. Now rising rates tend to be bad for domestic companies as a very broad rule of thumb, so I'm guessing what they meant was that the hope is Japanese companies poorly while American companies do well, which may cause more people to sell Japanese stocks and buy American. This would be a bit convoluted due to my second point on timing, and due to the lack of guarantee that America would be the topic equity pick for investors. To top it off, us markets have had a similar gangbuster year to Japanese stocks and are near all time highs, which hasn't helped out Biden much at the polls. Why would the white house be so gungho to goose stocks that they'd topple their number 1 geopolitical ally in to chaos?

On that note, the ldp and the white house haven't seen eye to eye on other issues, so why use their leverage over the party now specifically? Is domestic short term economic issues really going to trump the close alignment on re-militarization?

It strikes me as highly conspiratorial thinking with a misunderstanding of how decentralized rate decisions are in the US, but id be interested in seeing their sources.

GhostofJohnMuir
Aug 14, 2014

anime is not good

A big flaming stink posted:

Uh are you unfamiliar with the event known as the lost decade?

the ldp famously held power for a generation, right up until the effects of the lost decade started to sink in, so not entirely sure how the usa toppling a government is relevant

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GhostofJohnMuir
Aug 14, 2014

anime is not good
if big flaming stink is referencing the plaza accords, it would have been under reagan. american complaints about asian exporters allegedly devaluing their currency continued right up until the trump administration (and maybe biden too, but if they've made public statements asking china to let their currency fully float instead of pegging, i haven't seen it), but my sense is the focus of those complaints solidly shifted from japan to china around the mid-00's

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