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shrike82
Jun 11, 2005

A sexy submarine posted:

It's a little bit problematic to refer to the issue of American military bases as purely one of politicians being slavishly devoted to maintaining the security agreement with the U.S. There was a time, back in the 70s and 80s, where Okinawa's local economy was based around the existance of the military bases, through land lease fees as well as "expenditure from SOFA status persons" i.e. soldiers buying stuff. According to Okinawa's 1999 data (I don't have any more recent figures, sorry) the military bases account for 5% of Okinawa's total prefectural expenditure. Land prices have dropped off as of late, but not dramatically.

Ultimately the bases serve to reinforce the Okinawan economy and pump in billions of yen a year. Opponents of the bases, on the other hand, would suggest that the economic shortfall of closing the bases would be more than made up for by the tourism industry, but I'm not entirely convinced by this argument. Okinawa draws the vast majority of its tourism from the Japanese mainland, and international tourists make up a small percentage. Also, there are much cheaper options for tourists outside of Asia in terms of both flights and living expenses, on similar island resorts in the vicinity of Okinawa. In short, the demand for tourism seems to be rather inelastic and I don't think the bases' opponents' predictions for an economic upswing are entirely realistic.

Okinawa's economy seems to me to still be largely tied to the bases and although local politicians campaign for the removal of the bases, I think the politicans in Tokyo are unwilling to take a risky gamble with Okinawa's economy. Combined with geopolitical issues and fears about an aggressive China, which (thanks to the Senkaku incident) are no longer the exclusive preserve of the far-right, I think it's easy to understand why the Kan administration wanted to quietly drop the issue.

I have a hard time believing that the sheer bloodymindedness about the base situation in Okinawa is tied to revenues - especially when as you say, it's only about 5% of the prefecture's budget.

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shrike82
Jun 11, 2005

I'm in Japan on a business trip and I've only heard apathy. I don't think the Japanese I've spoken to are talking WW3 like some posters here.

If anything, seems like everyone's bashing Ishihara for not keeping his trap shut. But that could just me being in Tokyo speaking to businessmen.

shrike82
Jun 11, 2005

About the nuclear stuff, the government's capitulated and going 0 nuclear by 2030 which I don't see being feasible considering their power generation requirements...

shrike82
Jun 11, 2005

Actually, it's pretty clear that Abe won not so much because he had more pull but because the LDP Diet members detest Ishiba. The first round of the voting was open to rank-and-file of the party; Ishiba's support comes mainly from the base and the he won the round handily. The second round with Ishiba & Abe was only open to Diet members -> the LDP Diet members voted to make sure Ishiba was out.

shrike82
Jun 11, 2005

Konstantin posted:

How come Japan has high unemployment with so many aging workers? Are they just not retiring, or are companies not replacing them when they do retire, or is it some other factor?

Eh, Japan's unemployment rate is probably one of the lowest in the developed world. Under-employment is a totally different issue though.

shrike82
Jun 11, 2005

ReidRansom posted:

Can anyone tell me about Abe's inflation scheme? I'm a bit out of touch with what's going on. But whatever he's up to, it's tanking the yen, and I'm loving it. :10bux:

way later edit: I mean seriously. Over 88 yen/dollar for the first time in like 2 and a half years. I keep leveraging up to lock in my gains and it's just basically free money.

Part of Abe's election platform was a 2% inflation target. Considering that Japan has literally not had inflation rates anywhere close to that in decades, it's a pipe dream. What he has done is made a lot of noise about forcing the BoJ to accede to this with threats of pushing out the current governor and bringing in a more compliant one.

shrike82
Jun 11, 2005

Kenishi posted:

Theres no way Western businesses would look at Japan's redundancy and go, "I like the way they think. let's add 4 people to each position in the bottom 3 rungs of the organization. "But sir, we only need but maybe 1 extra person for maybe 4-5 positions..." "The Japanese do it so it must be good. 4 people in each of these 10 spots!"

I can honestly say that given the option between a US cut-to-the-bone business operation and a Japanese one with layers of redundancy, I'd pick the latter any day as a societal model.
Given the context of everything that's going on in the Western world right now, I find it hard to really criticize the Japanese model.

Also, about the 2% inflation target. That'd would do a lot of good to the structure of Japanese finances (both at the individual level as well as the institutional level) because it'd disincentivize Japanese from parking their financial assets in 0% return deposits or JGBs. If you look at the average Japanese family, they park the vast majority of their financial capital in fixed deposits. Forcing them to either consume or invest would pump-prime the market.

shrike82
Jun 11, 2005

It seems like a tendency for goons in Japan to pick up on the Japanese tendency to equivocate on the war but yeah, it's pretty lovely for Japan to try to paper over their "involvement" in stuff like the Nanking Massacre or the entire situation with comfort women.

shrike82
Jun 11, 2005

Not to mention we can expect to see support for Abe/LDP crumble once "Abenomics" fails.

shrike82
Jun 11, 2005

Speaking of Shin-Okubo, I was in Tokyo recently on a business trip and chatting to my Japanese colleagues about best/worst parts of town to live in.
They mentioned that Shin-Okubo was the worst place to live in, and it took me a while to realize that they were probably pointing indirectly at the large korean population there.

It's kind of amazing how Japanese can be incredibly racist but you don't realize it since it's never "in your face".

shrike82
Jun 11, 2005

Yup. It was ridiculous that I found it easier to smoke in bars and restaurants than the outdoors.

Not to mention the public smoking points in places like Shibuya are like gas chambers.

shrike82
Jun 11, 2005

I've noticed that staff at conbini and coin operated eateries are largely mainlanders these days.

shrike82
Jun 11, 2005

If you're a well(foreign)-educated Japanese, you'd probably want to work for a 外資系 anyway.
I can't think of a single reason why you'd want to work for a local company over a foreign one.

shrike82
Jun 11, 2005

Another way to get a glimpse into this aspect of Japan is asking a local about burakumin.

I was once astonished to hear an Oxford educated Japanese friend of mine tell me with a straight face that such and such a politician was a shitbird and that it wasn't surprising because he had burakumin blood or something along those lines.

shrike82
Jun 11, 2005

It's also interesting to see a gradual shift in the demographics of foreign expats.
At least anecdotally, I've seen an outflow of well-heeled expats from places like the US and UK, especially after the Tsunami, and an inflow of foreigners from places like Eastern Europe and Africa.

Of course, outnumbering all those, are the mainland Chinese.
Again, another litmus test of Japanese xenophobia, is asking a native about mainlanders.

shrike82
Jun 11, 2005

Eh, online shopping is definitely a thing in Japan these days.

shrike82
Jun 11, 2005

Yup, and citing Adelstein doesn't particularly inspire confidence either.

shrike82
Jun 11, 2005

caberham posted:

Yeah they still have those "old master" system and apprenticeship in Japan. It's weird :iiam: I was thinking along the lines of high end industrial equipment all coming from Japan. Like AIDA, Okamoto, Sodick, and making higher end glass and solid caps.

How is this different from the Mittelstand model in Germany? It's another good example of how people and media will reflexively slant something coming out from Japan as peculiar. This is a very good example because people have been lauding Germany's skilled apprenticeship system in SMEs as a moat to foreign competition but view the same model in Japan as archaic.

I've basically given up on most media and expat portrayals of Japan. It's so lazy.

shrike82
Jun 11, 2005

ookiimarukochan posted:

The reason that Japan was so late in automatic factories was just how damned cheap human labour was - the same is not true of Germany.

That's not really relevant to my point about apprenticeships in SMEs.

shrike82
Jun 11, 2005

I don't get it.
So Japan doesn't serve downloadable content (e.g., Steam) just like the States does... and what?

shrike82
Jun 11, 2005

To be fair, it's an expat thing everywhere in the world to bitch about locals and local customs.
Chat to a European living in the States and he'll likely have a laundry list of Americanisms to vent about. Japan's slightly more extreme in that a lot of foreigners there never pick up any real facility with the language.

For ugly expat syndrome, you can't beat China right now though.

shrike82
Jun 11, 2005

I was actually thinking more of expats going colonial and treating locals like dirt.
I went on a business trip to Shanghai last year and was brought out on a night out with some Japanese businessmen. Some of the stuff I saw was pretty disgusting.

shrike82
Jun 11, 2005

you always hear about the racism between the Chinese/Koreans/Japanese, what're the racists' views on other Asian countries such as Taiwan and SE Asia?

shrike82
Jun 11, 2005

that CNN feature on enjo kosai is something special

shrike82
Jun 11, 2005

Random q but is there any country founded by colonists which hasn't mistreated its indigenous population?

shrike82
Jun 11, 2005

Not sure why the American servicemen in Okinawa can't seem to stop raping locals

shrike82
Jun 11, 2005

Given the authority's reluctance in actually indicting military personnel, these statistics don't really mean much.

shrike82
Jun 11, 2005

lol

一般社員の7割「仕事以外で上司と付き合いたくない」
http://www.asahi.com/articles/ASJ3H52S9J3HUTFK00B.html

shrike82
Jun 11, 2005

Continuing the trend of US military sexually assaulting Japanese -

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2016/03/19/navy-arrest-groping-japan/82008926/

quote:

A U.S. Navy officer who was arrested Friday on charges of groping and punching a Japanese woman on a commercial air flight from the United States has been released to U.S. custody.

A spokesperson for U.S. Naval Forces-Japan said a Navy lieutenant assigned to Helicopter Maritime Strike Squadron Five One (HSM-51), based at the Atsugi Naval Air Facility, Japan, was handed over to U.S. authorities late Saturday under terms of the Status of Forces Agreement between the U.S. and Japanese governments.

According to Japanese press reports, the officer was arrested in an alleged assault on a 19-year-old female college student while on a flight from San Diego to Japan.

It was the second high-profile arrest of a U.S. serviceman for sexually related offenses in Japan in less than a week and could further complicate efforts to relocate a key U.S. airbase on the island of Okinawa.

shrike82
Jun 11, 2005

I'm reading the Japanese equivalent of 'Lying with Stats' which focuses on debunking home-grown stereotypes of Japanese twenty-somethings (e.g., proportion of 20-somethings virgins has risen dramatically, they drink less beer, they vote less). It's fascinating because a lot of this misinformation percolates out to Western media, and then the broader Western public.

Two examples -
1) 20-somethings are terrible because they never vote.
Fact: They vote less than their predecessors but the decrease is largely explained by a macro drop in political participation.

(The graph shows t-scores for Japanese voter participation by age from 1967 to 2014)

2) 20-somethings are more progressive (in Japanese political terms).
Fact: There's no discernible skew in political leaning across age groups

(Graph shows 2016 votes for the various Japanese political parties broken down by age; left-to-right: LDP, DPJ, Komeito, Communist Party, Japan Innovation Party, Others)

If you can read Japanese, I'd recommend the book だから数字にダマされる
http://www.ebookjapan.jp/ebj/385089/volume1/

shrike82
Jun 11, 2005

And speaking of Rakuten, I interviewed to join them post-MBA. Their management team is pretty focused on building an executive pool that's drawn from global talent. If anything, they tend to focus on HBS for their management program because Mikitani went there and he's a big fan.

That being said, the company is doing the same old song-and-dance of Asian companies attempting to build a global conglomerate by M&A rather than growing organically. They've pullbacked from this due to poor performance with their overseas acquired BUs.

shrike82
Jun 11, 2005

Fewer working age Japanese isn't a problem in of itself. It's the ratio of workers to retirees which is frightening.
I've done a fair bit of research work on the Japanese pension structure (top-down as well as looking at individual institutions such as the GPIF, mutual aid associations), they're hosed way more than the West which has its own set of retirement entitlement problems.

It's funny because you've had hedge funds bet against JGBs over the past two decades due to macro issues tied to this, and blown themselves up. But at the same time, you know something's got to give at some point when Japanese pension funds can't buy sufficient poo poo to keep yields so low.

shrike82
Jun 11, 2005

You have to wonder how much the government can "lead" the public in accepting foreign immigration even if they wanted to open up the spigot. I haven't looked at public opinion polls but given the endemic racism towards Chinese (who'd likely be the primary source of immigrants), I'm not sure if there's a solution that's palatable to the Japanese public.

shrike82
Jun 11, 2005

I think this is a good example of how far Japanese civil society has to progress in terms of child rearing

shrike82
Jun 11, 2005

Or people w/ NIMBY syndrome regarding the building of daycares due to the noise the kids make.
It's hard to blame the government when it's a wider societal issue

shrike82
Jun 11, 2005

Kenishi posted:

Again, the racism issue is something really only something present in the older generations, but those also end up being the generations that happen to vote the most, so.... I think the government could easily make a few changes that would make it easier for anyone to come into Japan without inciting too much backlash. They could do it under the guise of simplifying the immigration process and reducing the amount of "wasted time" on the part of immigration officers. They could basically do away with the work visa types. Right now when you apply for a work visa you also have to specify a type such as Engineer, Humanist, or Instructor. These types all have their own mini-requirements that have to be met in order to get a visa to work in an industry usually. Simply do away with them and make a single "Work Visa." Next, grant work visa's to any company/person that can show they are hiring and paying someone a livable wage. The "credentials" of the person receiving the visa shouldn't matter if the company is already willing to hire and pay them; there is no reason immigration should play the role as a secondary "interviewer" in this process. These simple changes would make it easier to get visa's for pretty much anyone and would simplify the application process enough that Visa lawyers should no longer be needed to apply for visas.

The greatest source of friction with respect to immigration will likely be low wage immigrant laborers (e.g., farmhands, conbini/coin operated eatery staff, retail, factory workers, nurses), both in terms of sheer numbers as well as the gap between cultural norms between the China, Philippines, and Japan (or ingrained racism related to the Asian races pecking order). I doubt enough educated professionals will want to move to Japan given the low pay and lovely working conditions to push the immigration needle.

shrike82
Jun 11, 2005

I agree with you in the abstract but practically speaking -
a) The recent populist backlash against immigration in the West underscores the problem of 'foreigners for cheap labor, Japanese get better paying jobs'.

b) My experience is largely with finance but I feel comfortable extending that to IT - there's limited capacity in those sectors in Japan for non-Japanese speakers. And I suspect the language barrier becomes more severe once you move out of those two sectors to other major industries. I would love to see Japan embrace English but it hasn't happened and I don't see any macro trend pointing to a cultural shift there. Rakuten is on the bleeding edge, entering its seventh year of 'Englishnization' and you still get the sense it's an executive decision by Mikitani and not something that has become engrained in the corporate culture.

c) Again, it could be due to our disparate personal experiences but I don't see the legal burden of getting a work visa being the main barrier for professionals. It's getting companies to the point where they're willing and actively recruiting for foreign professionals. Put another way, is there a problem we're seeing with companies trying to hire foreigners and not being able to get work permits? I would say no.

shrike82
Jun 11, 2005

I can't stop recommending the Lying with Stats book (http://www.ebookjapan.jp/ebj/385089/volume1/) -
Just read a section where the author talks about a Japanese study that seemed to find that older women that live on higher floors of apartments are more prone to miscarriages than those living on lower floors


(x-axis: floors, y-axis: % have experienced miscarriages)

There's a bunch of arguments he makes against it but mostly sample size; the 67% for 10+ floors came from 4 women out of 6 in the bucket.

shrike82
Jun 11, 2005

Polling by Japanese media tends to be pretty lovely. If you look at the polling setup this time round, they lead the question about the constitution with a bunch of questions equivalent to 'man, it's scary what NK is doing amirite?' so not surprised if that's skewed people's responses.

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shrike82
Jun 11, 2005

I don't know if it's another one of those fake news stats, but something like 40% of Japanese aged 18-34 are virgins.

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