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fat greasy puto
Dec 30, 2001

Anime Lover David Beckham
:allears: bunnyx

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The Big Taff Man
Nov 22, 2005


Official Manchester United Posting Partner 2015/16
Fan of Britches

beedeebee posted:

Huh, is that what laying bets is? I thought it was when you had a 3-4 team accumulator and you've won 3 games, and say Liverpool has to win their game for your accumulator to come in. You then place a bet for Liverpool to draw/lose so you win money no matter what. If Liverpool win => accumulator pays out, if they lose => your single bet pays out.

Thats kind of the same thing, just a bit more complicated or less complicated depending on how you look at it.

fat gay nonce
May 13, 2003
actual penis length: |-----------|



Winner, PWM POTM January

fat greasy puto posted:

bunnyx how do you feel about over2.5 goals in those two games you posted?

Az haven't scored less than 2 for 6 games, ADO have only had one game with less than 2 in the last six, both teams are still in with a shout for a european place so I'd expect an attacking game for them both.
Cambuur are last and apparently pretty baaaad, however they do seem to get consolation goals, Willem are chasing 15th trying to avoid the drop. It could honestly go either way, a 1-0 win or a 6-2 demolishing, however I'd expect goals to be scored so maybe over 2.5 is more realistic.

fat greasy puto
Dec 30, 2001

Anime Lover David Beckham
:allears:

fat gay nonce
May 13, 2003
actual penis length: |-----------|



Winner, PWM POTM January
2 days in a row, horay!

fat gay nonce
May 13, 2003
actual penis length: |-----------|



Winner, PWM POTM January
Come on 3 in a row:

St Polten v FC Liefering btts
Austria Klagenfurt v Sv Austria Salzburg btts

Austria first division pays 2 and a bit

jyrka
Jan 21, 2005


Potato Count: 2 small potatoes
If anyone wants, I have 2 hot tips on how to actually make money betting.

1. Know more about the league/sport/teams/match than the oddsmakers. Most lines are calculated by random office drones who don't know anything about the specifics of the match they're working on. There's too much sports(the same people generally work on all sports) in a day to really get into anything in depth. People just go through their list for the day. I bet whoever set the lines for those Austrian First Division matches couldn't name a single player on each of those teams. So if you know the players, managers and the strengths/weaknesses of the teams playing and can kind of understand how football works, you're way ahead. Yes, the formulas used by the oddsmakers are "cool and good" but the human adjustment part is weak. You would actually be shocked how basic the data used for setting the lines is.

Also, part of knowing more than the bookies is being able to react quickly and correctly to the news(injuries, lineups etc). Manual adjustments to the odds once they're out are rare. So if something that really changes things happens, you can benefit. Though, for example, one player's injury rarely has a big effect.

This applies mostly to non-elite football, which is to be fair a very small part of football. I'd consider anything outside BPL, Bundesliga and maybe Spain and Italy non-elite. Though I know people who set the Premier League lines but just aren't fans and therefore don't know the minutae. So if you're Belgian or Norwegian, leagues like that are perfectly winnable. In some ways betting is a test on how well you understand football or at least that specific league.

I personally would not make a bet unless I knew the likely line-ups, teams' general game plan and whatever else that can influence the match(pitch, weather, ref, fans). All of the internet-popular 9 match accys where you pick team names you recognise from different leagues are obviously losing bets. Of course betting to win is different from betting for fun. Ideally you want both though, right?

2. Equally important is the annoying admin part. Don't bet more than you can afford to lose, don't bet to win back a lost bet, line shop, read all the small print about payouts, find bonuses etc. I don't know, really. Don't get overly emotional or addicted. The whole industry lives on addicts and people trying to win their losses back. Endless bets on random poo poo because they're the only thing going or the last match of the day. So if you're psychologically normal and knowledgeable about what you're betting, it's not too hard to win.

Sorry for the meltdown etc.

fat gay nonce
May 13, 2003
actual penis length: |-----------|



Winner, PWM POTM January
Last night was poo poo so let's try again horay!

Liverpool and Newcastle btts
Fulham and Nottingham forest btts

Pays 2.6ish

Peterborough and Scunthorpe btts
Swindon and Chesterfield btts
Morecambe and Stevenage btts

Pays 4.6

fat gay nonce
May 13, 2003
actual penis length: |-----------|



Winner, PWM POTM January
First one in already, Swindon and Chesterfield really loving up the second

Wazzerphuk
Feb 9, 2001

Hating Chelsea before it was cool
Winner of the PWM POTM for September
Winner of the PWM POTM for January
Co-Winner of the PWM POTM for March
BTTS in Fulham matches is basically free money

Breath Ray
Nov 19, 2010
Who is giving away free bets for new accounts at the moment

fat gay nonce
May 13, 2003
actual penis length: |-----------|



Winner, PWM POTM January

Breath Ray posted:

Who is giving away free bets for new accounts at the moment

All of the major bookies will match any deposits you do, you should maximise those if you can. They will generally offer an enhanced odd bet for new customers which quite often is worth doing

Today paddy power have Leicester juventus and Villarreal enhanced to 20-1 for the treble

fat gay nonce fucked around with this message at 08:05 on Apr 24, 2016

fat gay nonce
May 13, 2003
actual penis length: |-----------|



Winner, PWM POTM January
Continuing btts since it's been very profitable so far:

Sunderland v Arsenal btts
Dundee Utd v Hamilton btts

Pays just under 3

Sandhausen v FSV Frankfurt btts
Borussia M’gladbach v Hoffenheim btts
Eintracht Frankfurt v Mainz 05 btts

Pays 4.7ish

Pissflaps
Oct 20, 2002

by VideoGames

fat greasy puto
Dec 30, 2001

Anime Lover David Beckham
like all these to at least push this afternoon/evening. first 2 are bolivia second 2 are paraguay


04/24/2016 @ 03:00 PM SOC [55259] TOTAL o3-103
(CLUB BAMIN REAL POTOSI vrs CA NACIONAL POTOSI)
04/24/2016 @ 03:00 PM SOC [55263] TOTAL o3-127
(CA CICLON vrs SAN JOSE ORURO)
04/24/2016 @ 05:00 PM SOC [40555] TOTAL o3+106
(OLIMPIA ASUNCION vrs CERRO PORTENO)
04/24/2016 @ 07:30 PM SOC [40567] TOTAL o3-108
(LIBERTAD ASUNCION vrs DEP CAPIATA)

fat gay nonce
May 13, 2003
actual penis length: |-----------|



Winner, PWM POTM January
poo poo day for me, ganbarre fat greasy puto

Total Meatlove
Jan 28, 2007

:japan:
Rangers died, shoujo Hitler cried ;_;
My over 2.5 treble for today and tomorrow is still strong, avoided the Arsenal game and had Palace/Watford and Leicester/Swansea, just need Tottenham tomorrow @ 7/1

What do people think about the man city/Real Madrid game midweek? I like sky bets overs, corners and booking points market for the CL games when Ramos and Pepe are involved, but not sure on City's defence.

fat gay nonce
May 13, 2003
actual penis length: |-----------|



Winner, PWM POTM January

Total Meatlove posted:

My over 2.5 treble for today and tomorrow is still strong, avoided the Arsenal game and had Palace/Watford and Leicester/Swansea, just need Tottenham tomorrow @ 7/1

What do people think about the man city/Real Madrid game midweek? I like sky bets overs, corners and booking points market for the CL games when Ramos and Pepe are involved, but not sure on City's defence.

Overs on goals and/or btts is probably worth putting something on after the teams are announced depending on who is playing CB for city and what attackers real end up playing.

If city are very strong city to win either half might be worth some money.

fat greasy puto
Dec 30, 2001

Anime Lover David Beckham

fat gay nonce posted:

poo poo day for me, ganbarre fat greasy puto

its been a rough weekend

Breath Ray
Nov 19, 2010
Names bonds, low yield government bonds

fat gay nonce
May 13, 2003
actual penis length: |-----------|



Winner, PWM POTM January
Bet365 have got a matched risk free in play bet offer for the city real game. I'm going with over .5 goals for the pre match then I'm tempted to go for de bruyne anytime for the risk free in play

fat gay nonce
May 13, 2003
actual penis length: |-----------|



Winner, PWM POTM January

fat gay nonce posted:

Bet365 have got a matched risk free in play bet offer for the city real game. I'm going with over .5 goals for the pre match then I'm tempted to go for de bruyne anytime for the risk free in play

Pretty epic bet itpo

Breath Ray
Nov 19, 2010
yeah there weren't over 0.5 goals in the real game let alone the warm up

Jose
Jul 24, 2007

Adrian Chiles is a broadcaster and writer
does anyone do rolling accumulators where you just bet the winnings on a likely win each day and cash out when you're doing well?

fat greasy puto
Dec 30, 2001

Anime Lover David Beckham

fat gay nonce posted:

Pretty epic bet itpo

that game was ridiculously bad

fat gay nonce
May 13, 2003
actual penis length: |-----------|



Winner, PWM POTM January

Jose posted:

does anyone do rolling accumulators where you just bet the winnings on a likely win each day and cash out when you're doing well?

Lots of the Twitter tippers do multi day rolling accas

duckmaster
Sep 13, 2004
Mr and Mrs Duck go and stay in a nice hotel.

One night they call room service for some condoms as things are heating up.

The guy arrives and says "do you want me to put it on your bill"

Mr Duck says "what kind of pervert do you think I am?!

QUACK QUACK
For the bet365 one bet the £50 on something with low odds (I went for Man City Bet No Draw) and lay it at as close odds as you can on betfair or smarkets or whatever. You'll lose about a fiver overall on that bet.

Then you can punt the other £50 on whatever you want. You've essentially got a £50 bet for £5.


edit: then again I put my £50 on +2.5 goals so maybe don't listen to me lol

Sad Panda
Sep 22, 2004

I'm a Sad Panda.

duckmaster posted:

For the bet365 one bet the £50 on something with low odds (I went for Man City Bet No Draw) and lay it at as close odds as you can on betfair or smarkets or whatever. You'll lose about a fiver overall on that bet.

Then you can punt the other £50 on whatever you want. You've essentially got a £50 bet for £5.


edit: then again I put my £50 on +2.5 goals so maybe don't listen to me lol

Real Madrid were 2.5/2.54 for a loss of 1.50. I then put the 50 on over 2.5 at half time which was at 7/8 for a 35 quid profit. Laying bets is the best

Breath Ray
Nov 19, 2010
Sorry if I'm being dense but neither of those things happened did they

Sad Panda
Sep 22, 2004

I'm a Sad Panda.

Breath Ray posted:

Sorry if I'm being dense but neither of those things happened did they

Which is the whole point of the lay and the joy of matched betting. Bet365 will have the same offer again for the other semi and I'll make another 35 quid. I did it consistently for 2 months last year and made about 6 grand. I've been travelling since the start of the year so just do bits here and there but it's enough to pay for my trip.

There's a website called Profit Accumulator which despite the dodgy as gently caress name works just wonderfully once you learn to ignore some parts of the forum.

http://www.profitaccumulator.co.uk/idevaffiliate/idevaffiliate.php?id=4315

Is my affiliate link there

But https://www.profitaccumulator.co.uk if you'd rather not.

They have a free account which explains how to do it with 2 bookies (Coral and 888 I think) but the theory is the same across them all. The main reason that I'm a member is that they post most of the offers that come up without me having to check for them and active forum threads of people suggesting good matches,that being how I found the match for over 2.5 goals from last night's match.

fat greasy puto
Dec 30, 2001

Anime Lover David Beckham
paraguay over tonight up to 3

fat greasy puto
Dec 30, 2001

Anime Lover David Beckham
atletico 2-0 is +600 and atletico 3-0 is +1800 right now for exact score. might be worth a punt but i wouldnt risk more than $5 on the first and $2 on the second

oliwan
Jul 20, 2005

by Nyc_Tattoo
Atletico Madrid @ 3.25 WIN Match Result
Atletico Madrid vs Bayern Munich
Total Stake: $50.00 Paid out: $162.50

:getin:

jyrka
Jan 21, 2005


Potato Count: 2 small potatoes

oliwan posted:

Atletico Madrid @ 3.25 WIN Match Result
Atletico Madrid vs Bayern Munich
Total Stake: $50.00 Paid out: $162.50

:getin:

Very nice. Why did you think they'd win?

Raffles
Dec 7, 2004

jyrka posted:

Very nice. Why did you think they'd win?

because pep has been gotten to

fat greasy puto
Dec 30, 2001

Anime Lover David Beckham
hope everyone bet paraguay because it covered in 40 minutes thanks

Raffles
Dec 7, 2004



high stakes this weekend lads

Sad Panda
Sep 22, 2004

I'm a Sad Panda.
10 odds in a row!

Chas McGill
Oct 29, 2010

loves Fat Philippe
I haven't been betting in ages, what's the best place to do it? I'm guessing they all have apps now?

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Jose
Jul 24, 2007

Adrian Chiles is a broadcaster and writer
depends on what you want to do but i've generally found betvictor give the best accumulator odds so long as you're not planning to use free bets

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