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MightyBigMinus
Jan 26, 2020

this might not be the right place, but does anyone here work in commercial solar? if you were say a middle aged person with a bad back, and therefore not really capable of starting from the "bottom" (physical labor on roofs), how would you go about getting a foot in the door? I'm thinking anything along the lines of sales engineering, or installation project management.

For instance, I read this post and think "this thing is going to sell like hot-cakes":
https://runonsun.solar/~runons5/blogs/blog1.php/solworks/est/hands-on-ensemble-my-trip-to-enphase

How can I help accelerate that as a day job?

I'm of course completely unqualified, which is why i'm trying to figure out how and where to start. My operating assumption is that this industry is growing much faster than they can hire qualified people, so on-the-job training has to be "normal" to some degree, right?

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MightyBigMinus
Jan 26, 2020

hopefully they hit the wrong fault line, trigger "the big one", and knock off a fifth of US GDP for a decade

MightyBigMinus
Jan 26, 2020

does anyone have any insider opinions (or even just industry-familiarity) with NREL? are they really doing cool poo poo? or is it just some federal bureaucracy limping along post-perry/trump gutting? is the stuff they do moving the ball, or just meta-analysis of what industry (or china) is doing to move the ball?

MightyBigMinus
Jan 26, 2020

Trabisnikof posted:

They do lots of really good research and are the premiere (but still token) renewables lab in the national lab system, the rest of which are nuclear (weapons) except the other token fossil fuel lab.

They’ve faired better than other government agencies under Trump since they’re part of the national lab system.

What’s the context?

thanks. researching a job opp.

MightyBigMinus
Jan 26, 2020

there are several dedicated tesla/musk shitposting threads if you're bored:

c-spam: https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3862673
yospos: https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3862643

MightyBigMinus
Jan 26, 2020

the numbers on solar+storage are getting pretty amazing:
https://www.energy-storage.news/blogs/battery-storage-at-us20-mwh-breaking-down-low-cost-solar-plus-storage-ppas

$20/MWh *with storage*

for batteries that cost $310/kWh, which will likely halve over the decade

MightyBigMinus fucked around with this message at 17:50 on Mar 24, 2020

MightyBigMinus
Jan 26, 2020

without taking the time to dig up the graphs i'm gonna say the US shale market threw what, 6 - 8 Mbpd on the market over the course of the last decade? assuming 80% of that evaporates over the course of the next 2 years, that will more than offset any increase russia and ksa *could* do, let alone what they'll still be doing by then.

eat poo poo and die permian frackers, you're done

MightyBigMinus
Jan 26, 2020

welcome to the internet, everything is terrible and you should feel unhappy all the time

MightyBigMinus
Jan 26, 2020

it doesn't matter if in reality 50 - 90% of all flights are canceled and planes grounded, what matters is an anecdote in AN ARTICLE I READ because it perfectly fits my favorite narratives and its TECHNICALLY CORRECT*

* the best kind ofc

MightyBigMinus
Jan 26, 2020

oh look an entire 10 seconds spent googling



and thats from march

MightyBigMinus
Jan 26, 2020

Lou Takki posted:

Yeah they don't want me to go above 99% which isn't really a big deal I suppose.

Total cost is about$3.10 per watt after federal incentives, seems reasonable to me?

tesla's 3.78kW system is $7770 after the fed tax credit, or $2.06/W

MightyBigMinus
Jan 26, 2020

screenshot attached

Only registered members can see post attachments!

MightyBigMinus
Jan 26, 2020

Trabisnikof posted:

Can you buy panel installs from tesla? They used to only do leased panels.

no i photoshopped it

MightyBigMinus
Jan 26, 2020

sometimes when I get really high I imagine half the navy's budget and manpower re-directed into an offshore wind build-out

MightyBigMinus
Jan 26, 2020

I wish we had like a nuclear/grid version of the strategic petroleum reserve. Whats the sunk capital and opex cost there?

MightyBigMinus
Jan 26, 2020

hey remember NuScale, the poster-child for the "Small Modular Reactor" concept that was going to use assembly line manufacturing and low-enriched fuel to break through the cost and saftey barriers?

yea thats over now

https://losalamosreporter.com/2020/08/22/get-out-of-the-fluor-nuscale-small-modular-reactor-project/

quote:

The Fluor/Nuscale scheme to finance the development of this reactor by enlisting many small municipal utilities to subscribe to the power is only about 30% subscribed, and two municipalities recently dropped out while one new one opted in.

The schedule for the project has slid year for year in the last four years, and the project has a number of unresolved problems that promise to cause additional slips in the schedule.

In answer to a question I posed to Nuscale at the town hall we have learned that the plan to save costs by fabricating the modules at a remote factory and shipping them to the Idaho site has been abandoned. The artful response to my question said that Nuscale engaged with approximately 40 … pressure vessel fabricators worldwide and … determined that Nuscale will use existing factories … in lieu of building its own factory.

The major module subcomponents will be manufactured at multiple manufacturer locations and shipped to a single location for assembly prior to installing into the facility.” This signifies the failure of one of the major cost-saving features of the Nuscale project, which was to forestall this exact scenario.

In response to another question at the same forum we have confirmation that no prototype of the proposed first-of-a-kind reactor has been built and tested. The so-called 1/3 scale prototype was heated with electric rods. The design of the fundamental technology of a nuclear reactor, the nuclear fuel, is still in flux.

- Nuscale/Fluor have announced recently that they are increasing the enrichment of the fuel to obtain a 20% increase in power output.

- Nuscale/Fluor have also recently announced that they are exploring metal fuel technology from Lightbridge which could give another 20% increment in power output.

- NRC documents indicate that Nuscale/Fluor have adopted a new Zirconium alloy (trademarked M5) for the fuel rod cladding, which could have consequences for some of the critical heat flux and thermal -hydraulic characteristics of the fuel rod assemblies. The first time these and many other design innovations will be tested together will be in the first module at the 12 module reactor site in Idaho. That will be the prototype.

The sad fact is, this is an experiment, it is not a tried and true design that is ready for production. Los Alamos County is not a laboratory or a backer of innovative technologies. This experiment is nothing like the bundle of truly tried and true power projects that Los Alamos put together in the 80’s. Los Alamos is in need of a reliable non-carbon power source. This experiment will not deliver usable power for decades and Los Alamos should get out of it now.

MightyBigMinus
Jan 26, 2020

its not modular anymore now though, its just small

MightyBigMinus
Jan 26, 2020

MightyBigMinus
Jan 26, 2020

freezepops posted:

Baseload generation isn’t really a thing if you have a power grid with significant sources of non-dispatchable generation. Since you don’t have control of energy sources like PV, other than curtailment, the minimum power generation required to meet the lowest load point can be zero or even negative (depending on market structure and how renewable energy like wind and solar are incentivized). It also doesn’t take much renewable penetration for baseload requirements to be eliminated on a year long basis, even Texas with a renewable energy penetration of about 15-20% has had the grid operate with negative prices as non-dispatchable energy sources exceeded load.

Now, you still need dispatchable power generation to meet load, but baseload doesn’t factor into how you meet those power requirements. Instead, ramp rates and peak output are the primary factors in how useful the power generator is going to be.

this is the difference between someone who actually understands the topic at hand, and people who formed their opinion of renewables in 2010 and refuse to learn anything new since (genx'ers incrementally ossifying their brains as they become the new boomers)

MightyBigMinus
Jan 26, 2020

Gabriel S. posted:

I mean, it's not that they don't work but the places that it's easy to drill are long and gone. That's how fracking along with horizontal drilling brought back so much drilling to the US. Along with recovering previously retired wells.

That's my understanding from quite a bit of reading. If that's incorrect, I'm a little unclear what's wrong with this train of thought.

you are mistaking narratives for numbers. narratives are things to paint on top of understanding the numbers, but are almost always marginal changes in rates and derivatives. the bulk of underlying things doesn't follow the marginal narratives, it trudges on much the same. if all you ever learn is narratives you'll trip over your lack of context into thinking wildly oversimplified narratives are an accurate understanding of real world numbers.

MightyBigMinus
Jan 26, 2020

Gabriel S. posted:

Ballparking that chart... That comes out to 11.52 Gigawatts?

Thinking this though more much time does it take to build a wind farm, solar farm or Nuclear Power plant?

I'm trying some basic napkin math how on quickly we'd be able to replace Natural Gas to understand the difficulty.

the US installed 9GW of wind in 2019: https://www.windpowerengineering.com/2019-was-the-u-s-wind-industrys-third-strongest-installation-year/

MightyBigMinus fucked around with this message at 03:01 on Sep 2, 2020

MightyBigMinus
Jan 26, 2020

DrSunshine posted:

Perhaps some very educated person on energy infrastructure or engineering in this thread could tell me this, since I just recently became curious -- theoretically speaking, like, say we wanted a new nuclear power plant built as soon as possible, how fast could one safely be built? Like say for example, the USA were to go full command economy tomorrow, or like if Jeff Bezos commanded that a nuke plant be made somewhere. What I had read from this and that source was that the main reason why nuke plants take like 20 years to be built is because of all the extensive preparation and the fundraising.

the navy (really its contractors) have been able to build a ton of nuclear subs in about 7 years: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virginia-class_submarine#List_of_boats

on the other hand, every one of chinas projects in the last decade has stalled and not gone online yet: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_China#Reactor_technologies

the most ardent optimist libertarian would probably say 5 years. reality says "null/undefined".

MightyBigMinus
Jan 26, 2020

Gabriel S. posted:

Okay, what are these numbers?



it probably hit 70/30 before covid, now its swinging back the other way haaaaard.


also, while we're on the fracking topic again, whenever you see some stemlord bullshiting you about how fracking wells are no worse than normal wells remember that its the perfect kind of lie. "technically true" while supporting the false conclusion.

fracking wells have a decay curve measured in months, vs traditional wells decades. to get the same amount of natgas to market you have to frack exponentially more wells. so even if they were perfectly the same amount of risk as a conventional well, the overall practice of fracking is still absolute crackhead insanity (still not as bad as tar sands tho).

MightyBigMinus
Jan 26, 2020

sure if by "better" you mean "without these pesky labor unions complaining about injuries"

MightyBigMinus
Jan 26, 2020

clearly if i were the god emperor of america i would right click on the menu and just put 200!

nukebugs ideology always comes down to their mistaking reality for a game of civ

MightyBigMinus
Jan 26, 2020

CommieGIR posted:

Sorry that reality got on your way about PV and Wind, Germany.

what churlish and childish tripe. gently caress you chud we're doing this without you.

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MightyBigMinus
Jan 26, 2020

GABA ghoul posted:

Nah, that's wrong....

Nah, that's wrong...

Nah, that's wrong...

I swear, once a nerd makes up an their condescending dunning-kruger opinion about anything, it's stuck for life. Like a childhood trauma. Might as well try to move a mountain.
and yet i catch the probation for daring to confront the lying troll.

mods are like illiterate cops. they can't read/follow the thread, they don't pretend to understand whats going on, they just shoot based on tone.

MightyBigMinus fucked around with this message at 01:05 on Sep 5, 2020

MightyBigMinus
Jan 26, 2020

CommieGIR posted:

What the gently caress is with you people and ad homs?
its not an ad-hom its the core issue of this thread. if this thread were in any way anchored in reality, we would spend our time talking about real developments in energy generation, which have overwhelmingly been wind/solar/batteries for nearly a full decade now.

but we don't. we spend alllllll of our time having to sift through and occasionally correct and yell at the nukechuds with their endlessly smug and condescending bullshit built on their wholesale ignorant understanding of the basic reality we theoretically share.

*you* are the problem, people aren't "ad-hom"ing you in a debate, they're pointing out what a loving miserable contributor to the debate you as a person are. (to be fair its you as a type of person, the nuke contrarian, you're not unique or special in this regard)

this is the problem with the endless endless nuke debate. its not anchored in the reality of energy generation as evolving on earth. its entirely in service of your posting ego. the problem with nukechuds is the chuds not the nukes, so you can never solve it talking about nukes.

i'm sorry for anyone else wasting their time reading along, here are some charts so that it was worth your time.

first off, here we see emissions from the energy sector dropping quickly:



why's that? well here we see its because of a huge shift to renewables and drop in coal:



but whats that? some concern troll dragging you into their bullshit again over what renewables means? well here's the breakdown, spoiler alert its wind and solar:



wait whats that? all of that seems counter to everything you've read on facebook and in this thread?

yes, thats the problem.

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MightyBigMinus fucked around with this message at 01:32 on Sep 5, 2020

MightyBigMinus
Jan 26, 2020

and thus we come full circle

gently caress you chud, we're doing this without you

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MightyBigMinus
Jan 26, 2020

for all our sakes I just put him on ignore

Anyone following Stanford Energy's youtube channel's "digital grid summer series"? Its amazing how much work has already gone into this, some of the pilot projects are as early as '06.

https://www.youtube.com/user/PrecourtInstitute/videos

check out how massive the real marginal action is around the 6pm solar-fade/load-ramp demand peak:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ITgxaFEymEo&t=3230s

MightyBigMinus fucked around with this message at 02:44 on Sep 5, 2020

MightyBigMinus
Jan 26, 2020

Cingulate posted:

From how I’m reading this, wouldn’t germany be close to carbon neutral if, in addition to the growth in renewables and the savings, it had let the nukes running while shutting down more coal in turn?
did you not see the big giant charts on your screen?

the first one clearly answers your question about carbon neutrality. (the answer is no, of course not, no one is even close to that, regardless of nukes, not even france)

the second one shows the math to answer the second half of your question. Since "Energiewende" began (2013) nuclear production has been reduced about 20TWh/year while coal went down ~85 TWh/year.

Over that same time period wind and solar increased about 90TWh/year. Essentially wind and solar replaced coal 1:1 while nuclear just got retired slowly.

It is only a relentless prioritizing of being a technically correct contrarian concern troll that keeps people talking about nukes. In actual realty (see graphs) the german energy transition is going far far better than almost anywhere else in the world, and we should be praising them and emulating them not tut-tuting our amateur horseshit about nukes.

This is analogous to concern trolling about long waiting times or various other nitpicks of the canadian or british healthcare system when people are promoting medicare for all. You're not helping, you're not even really correct, you're just babbling contrarian nonsense in service of undermining consensus and progress in order to defend the status quo.

MightyBigMinus fucked around with this message at 14:44 on Sep 5, 2020

MightyBigMinus
Jan 26, 2020

I didn't have jack poo poo to do with selecting the timeframe of when Energiewende begain, that was entirely up to german voters.

But please keep lecturing from your place of ignorance. I especially like the trick you used where you insert a bunch of "if" qualifiers so you can post bullshit off the top of your head rather than google and read for 5 minutes.

MightyBigMinus
Jan 26, 2020

in a way his borderline illiteracy, inability to acknowledge let alone learn from being corrected, and reflexive escalation/goal-post-moving acts as a sort of "Cunningham's law" forcing function to bring real info into the thread. I had to paste a ton of charts and graphs, Phanatic had to quote a ton of real-facts to refute his bullshit, Kaal has to do all the math of proving him wrong over and over again. we've gone like a dozen pages now of mostly people correcting this chud, but if you dare call him that you'll catch a probo! 20 pages of trolling is a-ok, only name calling is bad.

btw, as further proof that nuke chuds only like to argue about nukes to be smug on the internet, there was a pretty big development/step-forward in the nuclear industry in the last few days, and it didn't even show up in here!

https://wognews.net/news/2020/9/the-new-chinas-nuclear-10-bln

$10B for 4 x 1150MW reactors

IMHO the development process of AP1000 -> CPR1000 -> ACPR1000 -> Hualong One is the real "standardization" of nuclear energy plants, its just that standards are messier and develop more ad-hoc than engineers ever think they will. Also its China doing it so our opinions matter even less than usual.

MightyBigMinus fucked around with this message at 14:45 on Sep 9, 2020

MightyBigMinus
Jan 26, 2020

The thing about li-ion storage numbers is those reports are all like trying to catch a falling knife. A 2 year old report that aggregates numbers across the 3 - 5 years worth of installs prior to it being published are going to be nearly 2 - 3x higher than fresh-new-deal numbers.

to wit, its getting to be very common for new solar plants to have 50 - 500MW of li-on storage baked into the quote from day one. this isn't an internet nerd debate over if li-ion will ever work for this, reality has already decided yes and already started building.

https://www.pv-magazine.com/2020/09/11/us-developer-secures-15-year-ppa-for-400-mw-of-pv-180-mw-540-mwh-of-storage/

quote:

US developer secures 15-year PPA for 400 MW of PV, 180 MW/540 MWh of storage

8minute Solar will build the Rexford 1 Solar & Storage Center in central California, with the Clean Power Alliance serving as offtaker.

SEPTEMBER 11, 2020 TIM SYLVIA

One of the largest solar+storage installations in the United States has come one step closer to actualization, with 8minute Solar Energy coming to terms with Clean Power Alliance on a 15-year power purchase agreement for the Rexford 1 Solar & Storage Center in Tulare County, California.

The project is a behemoth, clocking in at 400 MW of solar and 180 MW/540 MWh of energy storage. It would be noteworthy even if it were just a storage installation, as it is larger than any such project currently operating.

It will be built on private farmland in Tulare County, with construction expected to begin in early 2022. Along with 400 construction jobs, the project is expected to create 1,000 indirect jobs. Over the course of its life, it is expected to contribute more than $200 million to the local economy.

The Rexford 1 Solar & Storage Center is the second collaboration this summer between 8minute Solar Energy and California community choice aggregators. In June, 8minute Solar agreed to a PPA with Monterey Bay Community Power Authority and Silicon Valley Clean Energy (SVCE) for the 250 MW Aratina Solar Center, with 150 MWh of storage.

The Aratina Solar Center will be built in Kern County, California and is expected to come on-line before the end of 2023. The project is expected to create more than 300 construction jobs.

MightyBigMinus
Jan 26, 2020

Solvent posted:

I [...] have been reading this thread because this is a subject I wanted to understand better.

Solvent posted:

Am I just full of misinformation lol?
highly correlated

MightyBigMinus
Jan 26, 2020

CrypticTriptych posted:

Ten or even five years ago I was sure that a huge resurgence in nuclear was going to be necessary to get off fossil fuels in a reasonable time frame, and was very pro-atoms. Since wind, solar, and storage costs have dropped so fast, and show room for more improvement in the future, I think we're past the point where that makes sense anymore. I still think nuclear is amazing tech and has a place in decarbonizing the grid, but it's not going to be at the front of the pack for a long time, maybe ever. Ramping up the specialized skills and heavy industry required to construct and operate that many reactors would take years even as a moonshot project with lavish national funding, and that's clearly not in the cards.

If we'd started a heavy nuke buildout a decade ago I think it would've been a fine path to take and we'd almost certainly be better off than we are today, but we didn't.

this is why it so perfectly functions as a test of peoples character as much as it has to do with nukes. its an almost perfect proxy for "are you still capable of learning new things and changing your opinions" vs "my brain froze in place at 35. between now and death I'm going to slowly brain-petrify into a boomer by being more and more condescending while simultaneously getting more and more wrong".

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MightyBigMinus
Jan 26, 2020

thesis: value is imputed by the labor it takes to make a thing
antithesis: value is whatever anyones willing to pay for it

synthesis: value is the energy cost of acquisition & consumption

MightyBigMinus
Jan 26, 2020

~130 EJ a year from oil gas and coal in a 'net-zero' scenario huh? do they explain that? is it the typical "a magic BECCS will appear" ?

MightyBigMinus
Jan 26, 2020

quote:

In the IPCC net-zero scenarios, the negative emissions ‎produced using BECCS range from 5-10 Gt CO2.
so "yes"

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MightyBigMinus
Jan 26, 2020

Kaal posted:

Currently it takes about five years for a 2 GW fission plant to get built in China
hoooooorrrsssseeeee shiiiiiiiitttt

quote:

- but that pace will certainly quicken as they move into mass production.
compound horse poo poo

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