|
Golbez posted:In Iowa, today was blessed. No more pollsters. No more canvassing. No more idiotic billboards. Peace and quiet, for the first time in 16 months.  My state has an arbitrarily outsized influence on the selection of the most powerful office in world history and is therefore catered too by the rich and powerful on a nigh constant basis
|
#
?
Nov 8, 2012 04:46
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 9, 2024 09:26 |
|
|
SHINEBLOCKA posted:Do ya'll really buy that Christie is "too fat?"
|
|
#
?
Nov 8, 2012 04:58
|
|
|
Huntsman never should have ran for president. I thought by taking the appointment in the first place he was acknowledging that any 2012 candidate would be swimming upstream, and then he had to blow it with his foolish run. In spite of how he looks on paper, it's hard to recall a worse candidacy. Literally his only constituency was the media. With Christie, I think the biggest obstacle standing in his way until recently was re-election next year. He probably would have won, because the NJ Democratic Party is really corrupt (basically, their biggest political bosses are in Christie's pocket and do whatever he says as long as plays ball with their pet projects.) The big urban machines sat on their hands in 2009 while Corzine was losing in a close race. In fact, they're already trying kneecap progressive NJ lefties who are trying to call bullshit on all of this and fight Christie. The storm has pretty much washed away any possibility of him losing though. Wouldn't shock me if he has near universal approval now. You already had hints that top challengers like Booker would probably lean against challenging him, and now they definitely won't. Oh, and white people seriously loving love Christie for his brashness in an unnatural way.
|
|
#
?
Nov 8, 2012 05:02
|
|
|
Willa Rogers posted:^^^ I'd bet anything that Rubio or Martinez or any other Latino is on the GOP ticket, prolly as veep, given current demographics of the country and given that 75 percent of yesterday's Latino vote went to Obama. I would have (and came close to) betting a lot of money that this cycle's pick would be a minority. Instead, the choices wound up Christie and Ryan. Never underestimate the ability of the GOP to shoot themselves in the head on this point.
|
|
#
?
Nov 8, 2012 05:41
|
|
|
Adar posted:I would have (and came close to) betting a lot of money that this cycle's pick would be a minority. Instead, the choices wound up Christie and Ryan. Never underestimate the ability of the GOP to shoot themselves in the head on this point. I have a feeling that Ted Cruz is actually the name to watch in this space and not Martinez or Rubio.
|
|
#
?
Nov 8, 2012 05:47
|
|
|
jeffersonlives posted:I have a feeling that Ted Cruz is actually the name to watch in this space and not Martinez or Rubio. He was born in Canada, so he can't be President or Vice-President.
|
|
#
?
Nov 8, 2012 05:48
|
|
|
Adar posted:I would have (and came close to) betting a lot of money that this cycle's pick would be a minority. Instead, the choices wound up Christie and Ryan. Never underestimate the ability of the GOP to shoot themselves in the head on this point. This, this, this times a thousand. The GOP knows better. If a Hispanic is chosen as a VP pick, Arzonia racist whites and co are going to stay home. They'd rather the democrats win, then the republicans moderate in the slightest. Hence what happened last night.
|
|
#
?
Nov 8, 2012 05:49
|
|
|
^^^ That meme got trotted out a lot this year regarding Romney's Mormonism, which didn't have any effect on evangelical voters from what I can tell.Adar posted:I would have (and came close to) betting a lot of money that this cycle's pick would be a minority. Instead, the choices wound up Christie and Ryan. Never underestimate the ability of the GOP to shoot themselves in the head on this point. True--but given the country's demographics and trends their only option is to cede the presidency to Dems for the foreseeable future. Besides, they do have popular pols like Rubio and Martinez. Willa Rogers fucked around with this message at 05:52 on Nov 8, 2012 |
|
#
?
Nov 8, 2012 05:50
|
|
|
raito posted:He was born in Canada Nobody seriously suggests that being born outside of the United States to United States citizen parents violates the Natural Born Citizen Clause. That would have disqualified, among others, former presidential candidate George Romney. Well, except for birthers, I guess, but I don't consider them serious.
|
|
#
?
Nov 8, 2012 05:51
|
|
|
jeffersonlives posted:Nobody seriously suggests that being born outside of the United States to United States citizen parents violates the Natural Born Citizen Clause. That would have disqualified, among others, former presidential candidate George Romney. Do you know if Ted Cruz's parents are American citizens for sure? I guess they were just working in Canada then
|
|
#
?
Nov 8, 2012 05:53
|
|
|
raito posted:Do you know if Ted Cruz's parents are American citizens for sure? I guess they were just working in Canada then His mother was born in Delaware, his father naturalized. Ted Cruz is a natural born citizen by any reasonable reading of the law.
|
|
#
?
Nov 8, 2012 05:55
|
|
|
As a proud Marylander, I would want O'Malley to run, although it wouldn't be too bad if he loses the general election to Michael Steele.
|
|
#
?
Nov 8, 2012 05:58
|
|
|
jeffersonlives posted:His mother was born in Delaware, his father naturalized. Ted Cruz is a natural born citizen by any reasonable reading of the law. Should probably run this by Donald Trump first.
|
|
#
?
Nov 8, 2012 06:13
|
|
|
Everybody who wants Andrew Cuomo to run: I implore you to reconsider who you want in a candidate. The only reason he's popular as New York governor is because he made sure that Albany isn't a joke for once. That sounds good on paper, but he did this by regularly throwing Senate Democrats and other progressive legislation (state campaign finance reform and raising the minimum wage, to name a couple) under the bus. Cuomo will have you wishing for the days of Obama, who at least pays lip service every so often to progressive causes. Let me elaborate a little more about Cuomo's attempt to leave the Senate Dems for dead. He has made it abundantly clear over the past few months that he wants a Democratic Assembly (led by corrupt shitheel Shelly Silver) and a Republican Senate (led by Long Island Republican Dean Skelos). To achieve the latter, he supported some Republicans who played ball with him in passing gay marriage- namely Stephen Saland of Poughkeepsie. At the same time, he refused to help out some Democratic challengers that would have gotten an electoral boost from an endorsement- most notably, Cecilia Tkaczyk, who ran in the so-called 63rd district that Senate Republicans carved out to give them the best chance of winning. Thankfully, it looks like both of Cuomo's decisions are probably going to blow up in his face. Even though both elections in question are too close to call, Saland is down by a couple thousand votes and Tkaczyk is up by less than 150 votes going into the paper ballot vote. If both elections go for the Democrats, then they will have a 33 to 30 majority in the State Senate. This being Albany, there is no guarantee that things will go as smoothly or as left-wing as some might want it to be. There are four Democrats that make up an independent caucus who will undoubtedly want some important leadership positions in exchange for loyalty, and the newly-elected Simcha Felder could very well join that caucus if he doesn't caucus with the Republicans. That being said, I'd rather have a Senate with Democrats potentially committed to passing good legislation than Republicans that are less likely to do that. If Cuomo wins the nomination, I am voting third party again in four years.
|
|
#
?
Nov 8, 2012 06:19
|
|
|
Willa Rogers posted:True--but given the country's demographics and trends their only option is to cede the presidency to Dems for the foreseeable future. Obama's best play by a mile is to do immigration reform early next Congress. It'll probably happen. How the GOP reacts to that determines whether there's any chance of a Hispanic nom or if picking a Hispanic veep would have any effect. It's certainly clear that the civil war will be in full bloom the minute that bill hits Congress. Apart from that, I wouldn't worry too much about Rubio. There's even some chance the reason he wasn't picked is that he didn't pass vetting. Even assuming the sane wing wins, everybody else gets three years to polish themselves, so like I said, way too early. e: I keep hearing that about Cuomo but I'm out of the loop; can you link me to an article or two?
|
|
#
?
Nov 8, 2012 06:28
|
|
|
Yeah, I have no idea why anyone would be that thrilled about Cuomo considering his records, give me Hillary over that anyday. It is obviously going to be a DLC Democrat, but at least with Hillary there is a chance some acceptable stuff might get done and her relationship with the center-left isn't as poisonous as Obama or Cuomo. Anyway, Cuomo is a big name in New York State but outside of it I don't think he has much pull, especially not on the West coast.
|
|
#
?
Nov 8, 2012 06:30
|
|
|
Y-Hat, while I generally agree with your general thrust that Cuomo is center-right on fiscal issues, I'm greatly amused that you've tried to throw New York Senate Dems and "progressive legislation" in the same sentence. As you well know, the chamber is effectively (and perhaps technically too) now going to be run by the Independent Democratic Conference (which will probably get conservative "Democrat" Simcha Felder added to it) which is substantially more conservative than the actual Republican caucus. I suspect the state was actually better off in terms of progressiveness having Skelos running the Senate.
|
|
#
?
Nov 8, 2012 06:32
|
|
|
jeffersonlives posted:Y-Hat, while I generally agree with your general thrust that Cuomo is center-right on fiscal issues, I'm greatly amused that you've tried to throw New York Senate Dems and "progressive legislation" in the same sentence. As you well know, the chamber is effectively (and perhaps technically too) now going to be run by the Independent Democratic Conference (which will probably get conservative "Democrat" Simcha Felder added to it) which is substantially more conservative than the actual Republican caucus. I suspect the state was actually better off in terms of progressiveness having Skelos running the Senate. facepalm.gif If that's what he meant, yeah bring back the good old days of Joe Bruno.
|
|
#
?
Nov 8, 2012 06:34
|
|
|
I don't think Hillary or Biden will run in 2016 simply because of their ages. Hillary will be 69 and Bidnen 73 they will not be running.
|
|
#
?
Nov 8, 2012 06:36
|
|
|
Adar posted:facepalm.gif In addition to the four person IDC that organized with the Republicans last session, you've got nominal "Democrats" like Felder (who ran way to the right of Republican incumbent David Storobin, including getting the Conservative line) and noted archconservative Ruben Diaz who implored people to vote Conservative Party instead of Democratic just a few weeks ago. Fusion voting always makes party label fluid. Cuomo now has a Senate "majority" that largely hates him and won't be able to agree on a lunch menu, let alone a legislative agenda. Suffice it to say I expect his star to fall in the next two years quite a bit and Gillibrand to overtake him as the non-Hillary NY candidate.
|
|
#
?
Nov 8, 2012 06:43
|
|
|
Clinton and Biden would both be easy targets in a primary for anyone slightly left of Barry Goldwater. While Warren isn't charismatic and is typically awkward, she has this intelligence that everyone around her seems to recognize. In a situation where we decide to do a witch hunt on Wall Street around that time, she would be the candidate. Strong domestic policy is a much faster way to attract people- this has been statistically substantiated.
|
|
#
?
Nov 8, 2012 06:44
|
|
|
Job Truniht posted:While Warren isn't charismatic and is typically awkward, she has this intelligence that everyone around her seems to recognize. That's exactly why the party elite would probably never nominate her for president. Warren could eke out a win against Brown's "PROFESSOR Warren" because she ran in Massachusetts. It'd be a death knell in most other states.
|
|
#
?
Nov 8, 2012 06:49
|
|
|
Adar posted:Obama's best play by a mile is to do immigration reform early next Congress. It'll probably happen. How the GOP reacts to that determines whether there's any chance of a Hispanic nom or if picking a Hispanic veep would have any effect. It's certainly clear that the civil war will be in full bloom the minute that bill hits Congress. The DREAM executive order is due to expire in 2014, I believe, which will conveniently coincide with the midterms.
|
|
#
?
Nov 8, 2012 07:04
|
|
|
Forget the wall of text that was here, I don't want to derail the conversation. The point I'm making is that Cuomo is a DINO through and through. At least Obama talked about the richest 2% of Americans paying more in taxes- Cuomo wouldn't even consider a millionaire's tax in the state. And as for the independent redistricting committee (which is supported by former NYC mayor Ed Koch, among others), he talked very little and unenthusiastically about it come redistricting time before letting it die for this session. He was definitely picking his battles in his first two years and knew his limitations, but I do not trust him to be a standard bearer for a party that should be doing more for the progressive base in the next presidency.
|
|
#
?
Nov 8, 2012 07:10
|
|
|
Assuming he doesn't gently caress up in the next four years, I think Rubio is a very strong contender. The demographic issue is staring Republicans in the face, and he's Latino while still being white enough to comfort the racists. Given the fact that the Republicans pretty much got slaughtered when it came to every minority group, I think if they're paying any attention, diversity or a reasonable appearance thereof is going to be a top concern.
|
|
#
?
Nov 8, 2012 07:13
|
|
|
Willa Rogers posted:The DREAM executive order is due to expire in 2014, I believe, which will conveniently coincide with the midterms. He shoulda done that in 2010... Someone mentioned Villaraigosa earlier. He seems like an alright mayor, I voted for him when I still lived in Los Angeles and I think it was the right choice. But his messy divorce is going to hold him back; presidential candidates need to be squeaky clean in that regard. He may advance to Governor or a cabinet position at some point, but I doubt he'll run for president.
|
|
#
?
Nov 8, 2012 07:22
|
|
|
I would save massive amounts of time off of work to actively campaign for Peter Barca, not knowing a drat thing about his politics. All I can say is that the guy has a passion for democracy that would give the GOP a heart attack. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XiYq5kdvJqs&t=297s Edit: And if the GOP runs Scott Walker, Barca *HAS* to be on the Dem ticket.
|
|
#
?
Nov 8, 2012 07:27
|
|
|
There's no chance of her running in 2016, but I've heard lots of good things about the California attorney general whose name has slipped my mind. Assuming she doesn't gently caress up, I'd be pretty enthusiastic about backing her at a much later time.
|
|
#
?
Nov 8, 2012 07:34
|
|
|
Kamala Harris. She's pretty much an up-n-coming pol, one of the few younger and more interesting officeholders. Deborah Bowen, Califonia's SoS, is also good, and I'd love to see her run for the U.S. Senate once Boxer and Feinstein head to their crypts.
|
|
#
?
Nov 8, 2012 08:04
|
|
|
sullat posted:He shoulda done that in 2010... Yeah, Villaraigosa cheated on his wife while she was undergoing treatment for cancer. He's not going anywhere. Assuming he becomes the next mayor, Eric Garcetti is the LA politician to keep an eye on, but 2016 is too soon for him.
|
|
#
?
Nov 8, 2012 08:41
|
|
|
PT6A posted:Assuming he doesn't gently caress up in the next four years, I think Rubio is a very strong contender. The demographic issue is staring Republicans in the face, and he's Latino while still being white enough to comfort the racists. Given the fact that the Republicans pretty much got slaughtered when it came to every minority group, I think if they're paying any attention, diversity or a reasonable appearance thereof is going to be a top concern.
|
|
#
?
Nov 8, 2012 08:47
|
|
|
Doubt Booker will run. I wouldn't be surprised to see him go for Governer while Christie shoots for President, then Booker will run the next available cycle. Booker is presidential material for sure though. That dude is crazy lovable and he's a superhero. Newark is a WAY better city since he took office. Also Joementum, his name is spelled Cory, not Corey 
anime was right fucked around with this message at 08:57 on Nov 8, 2012 |
|
#
?
Nov 8, 2012 08:54
|
|
|
When was the last time a mayor successfully ran for a nomination? I'm fairly sure Biden wants it in 2016 and he'll likely have a good chunk of the OFA operation behind him (not necessarily the grassroots, but the organizing/data side of things.) His age is a worry. Clinton... I don't know. I think she's done with politics. She was a fantastic SecState, basically everyone at State loved her. But her age will also be somewhat problematic, and I think she genuinely is tired of dealing with politics at this point. Maybe if Gillibrand were to VP, she might go back to the Senate, but I'm not sure I see her trying for president again.
|
|
#
?
Nov 8, 2012 09:02
|
|
|
I can't think of any politician who comes across as more of a triangulating creep than Andrew Cuomo, and I say that as someone who doesn't really want a firebreather either.
|
|
#
?
Nov 8, 2012 09:03
|
|
|
cheese posted:He seem to be bandied about because there really isn't anyone else who fits the 'young, charismatic and not a white guy' bill in the Republican party at this point. This is true to a much more staggering degree than you'd think at first glance. Here's the complete list of Republican senators and governors who aren't white dudes: Sen. Marco Rubio (FL) Sen. Kelly Ayotte (NH) Sen. Lisa Murkowski (AK)* Sen. Susan Collins (ME) Sen.-elect Ted Cruz (TX) Sen.-elect Deb Fischer (NE) Gov. Susana Martinez (NM) Gov. Nikki Haley (SC) Gov. Bobby Jindal (LA) Gov. Jan Brewer (AZ) Gov. Brian Sandoval (NV) Gov. Mary Fallin (NE) * Won her last reelection as an independent. Over half of those names look like non-starters as national candidates, so you're basically looking at picking your ticket from Rubio, Ayotte, Jindal, Sandoval, Cruz if he pans out, Martinez if her family situation changes, and perhaps Haley if she can ever get it together. That's just not a strong list of candidates, and unlike the Democrats who fortify a much longer list with people like Clinton and Sebelius in the Cabinet and up and comers like Booker and Joaquin Castro for the next generation, the only real Republican prospect outside the current senator/governor box is Condi. Quasimango posted:I can't think of any politician who comes across as more of a triangulating creep than Andrew Cuomo, and I say that as someone who doesn't really want a firebreather either. The contrast between Andrew Cuomo and Mario Cuomo in that regard is amazing. Mario was pretty drat liberal and came across as one of the most sincere politicians I've ever seen. It's a shame Mario turned into Hamlet on the Hudson and never ran, he'd have been a hell of a president. Here's Mario's keynote address in 1984, which was basically the Obama 2004 speech of it's generation: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kOdIqKsv624 oldfan fucked around with this message at 09:21 on Nov 8, 2012 |
|
#
?
Nov 8, 2012 09:12
|
|
|
Willa Rogers posted:^^^ That meme got trotted out a lot this year regarding Romney's Mormonism, which didn't have any effect on evangelical voters from what I can tell. That reminds me of a pretty interesting little stat from this election: A slim majority of Catholics supported Obama, while a significant majority of Protestants supported Romney. You can interpret this in a lot of different ways, but still it's a sign that the GOP's reliance on the religious blocs is not as sturdy as it may seem. quote:President Barack Obama won a slim majority of votes from self-identified Catholics, according to exit polls conduct by CNN. Kaal fucked around with this message at 09:40 on Nov 8, 2012 |
|
#
?
Nov 8, 2012 09:37
|
|
|
Quick note on the Warren business, as this is something I've both read in the press and heard from campaign volunteers who spent months with her: She knows where her bread is buttered and it took a lot of coercing to get the woman to run for the Senate in the first place. I can't imagine she has even the slightest desire to become the first woman President of the United States of America. As much as it would be a gorgeous progressive dream candidacy, she seems to be aware of her shortcomings as a candidate and is ecstatic to just be able to be the vanguard of progressivism in the Senate. Feingold is the guy to look to for a run from the left, but I think his status as a defeated Senator might make him a non-starter.
|
|
#
?
Nov 8, 2012 09:37
|
|
|
The Prisoner posted:
Not the best comparison, but this didn't stop Santorum. Given that, Feingold is definitely a long shot. While he can fire up the base, he's poisonous to the right for what it's worth, and losing in the Tea Party sweep does hurt him. It's possible he could recover on his road, if he say, runs against Walker in 2014, ousts him then(recovering his lose against Tea Party cred), but 2 years as governor isn't really the best way to break into a presidential race. Given that, I just want someone to come and smash Walker. 
|
|
#
?
Nov 8, 2012 09:47
|
|
|
cheese posted:Most of the people who seem to think Rubio would be a good national candidate don't seem to know all that much about him other than hes young, Republican and Latino. He has a lot more going against him than most people seem to think, starting with the fact that hes actually Cuban and there is zero evidence that of Mexican decent Hispanics will find him automatically appealing because of that. He seem to be bandied about because there really isn't anyone else who fits the 'young, charismatic and not a white guy' bill in the Republican party at this point.
|
|
#
?
Nov 8, 2012 09:56
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 9, 2024 09:26 |
|
|
The Prisoner posted:Quick note on the Warren business, as this is something I've both read in the press and heard from campaign volunteers who spent months with her: She knows where her bread is buttered and it took a lot of coercing to get the woman to run for the Senate in the first place. I can't imagine she has even the slightest desire to become the first woman President of the United States of America. Maybe that's how she feels now, but what about two years from now when the base of the party is trying to draft her? Even if she legitimately doesn't want to be president (and I have my doubts about that), for someone who cares deeply about certain issues, the pulpit is often too much to pass. There's an old political joke that a hundred people wake up in the morning and see a future president in the mirror, and they're all named "Senator." That's not precisely true, but it probably is for almost all of them under 70. french lies posted:He's a good public speaker and has an appealing earnestness about him. He's also able to frame party talking points in narratives that are convincing to a general audience. In that sense he reminds me of Obama even though their styles are very different. He's an extremely strong candidate, and with a better GOTV apparatus and a moderate platform he'll more or less dominate in 2016. I thought given how much Rubio underwhelmed at the Republican convention and faded from the spotlight in general that this stuff was going away at least for a little while, but I guess not. eta: Rubio's a good looking Hispanic guy who is a decent speaker and co-opted some of the tea party anger despite being a decidedly establishment politician by running against Charlie Crist's collaboration on the stimulus. The adjectives that get thrown on him past that are more wishcasting what could be than what actually is, which is silly because the first ten words of that sentence are enough to make him a serious national player given how few good looking Republicans who aren't white dudes there currently are in positions of power. oldfan fucked around with this message at 10:09 on Nov 8, 2012 |
|
#
?
Nov 8, 2012 09:57
|
|