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I like Schweitzer because yes, he's a progressive. But if you buy the appeal of politics as a spectator sport, he has a very different brand and character from Obama. Obama had 'cool' which rallied people to his cause, but didn't play well outside the cities. Schweitzer can throw out a 'good old boy' character (much like G.W. Bush had) and lure the southern states away from the republicans, and tempt them with the sweet temptation of progress. If he's a true progressive, the typical blue states will rally behind him anyway. There's the matter of if he can sell it, though. If he can, he has a strong narrative advantage, putting progressivism in an appealing package for the Carolinas and Arkansas or whatever. Hillary or Joe get first dibs, of course. Joe Biden reminds me of pro wrestler Diamond Dallas Page and the stories behind him. DDP is regarded as one of the nicest guys in the pro wrestling business(a business, much like politics, full of utter assholes), goes out of his way to help people, etc. But he's an utter egomaniac, putting himself over at every turn. Biden loves Biden, and although Biden is a nice guy with no filter(I actually love the assessment that Biden is basically Todd Akin or Richard Mourdock if they actually believed in poo poo that wasn't reprehensible), Biden is also an egomaniac. Biden thinks Biden is awesome, and if Biden thinks he can become president, he's running at 73. I just hope it's not Cuomo. He'll be like the Democrat Romney - we'll probably end up begrudgingly accepting him because it turns out O'Malley develops a med addiction, Deval Patrick thinks George Bush did 9/11, and Kristen Gillibrand has 'migraines' and runs off the Debate stage a lot. The GOP is too early to call. Is the response that Mitt Romney just wasn't conservative enough? Do they try to fan the flames of white dude anger even more? Do they try to court the hispanics to their cause? Do they have an epiphany and actually try to go the moderate route instead of simply obstructionist? If so, see: Appeal to Fascism More: Santorum 2016 Love Us, Hispanics: Marco Rubio 2016 Epiphany, stop being obstructionist: Chris Christie 2016 The also-rans of 2012 I think are unlikely. Bachmann can barely hold onto her congressional seat, Cain has found his calling is avant garde political comedy, Gingrich might run if it'll sell his next book, Perry will probably still have 'Oops' hanging over his head. Paul has said he's done, although he will be written in on ballots hundreds of years from now even as people forget who he is. Santorum needs the Tea Party to be strong, and if they go, he goes.
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Nov 8, 2012 00:03
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The Prisoner posted:
Not the best comparison, but this didn't stop Santorum. Given that, Feingold is definitely a long shot. While he can fire up the base, he's poisonous to the right for what it's worth, and losing in the Tea Party sweep does hurt him. It's possible he could recover on his road, if he say, runs against Walker in 2014, ousts him then(recovering his lose against Tea Party cred), but 2 years as governor isn't really the best way to break into a presidential race. Given that, I just want someone to come and smash Walker. 
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Nov 8, 2012 09:47
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Punch Drunk Drewsky posted:What's the story behind this? I was a lot more involved with Obama's reelection campaign than I ever thought I could be and next time am hoping to get in on the ground floor with the primaries. Deval Patrick was the only person who impressed me and after a rough spat of research looks like he's the kind of guy I can get behind. It's fiction, all of the things around that are situation where it's quite clear while that person is utterly unelectable, much like the 2012 Republican Primaries. As far as I know, O'Malley doesn't have drug issues and Gillibrand has of clean bill of health physically and mentally. Deval Patrick is not an insane conspiracy theorist. Maximo Roboto posted:Still gonna go on a long shot and say that Paul Ryan is due for some sort of John Edwards fall. The guy just looks too young and clean. I think Paul Ryan is done beyond his congressional seat. Even if he wanted to shift to the Senate, Wisconsin may rebuke him, and his earliest shot to do so is 2018 vs. Baldwin. No other VP pick in recent memory I think has shifted so far into the background - it may be the looming presence of Palin, and Biden being Biden, but i vaguely remember John Edwards and Dick Cheney being visible in 2004. The last thing we heard about Ryan before election day was him forcing himself on a homeless shelter to scrub their clean pots. He may try to run out of egoism, but he's going to go nowhere.
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Nov 9, 2012 02:55
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Baruch Obamawitz posted:What would be hilarious is if Christie feigns disgust as to how the Republican party treated him for working with the President on Sandy recovery and flips parties (obviously without changing any positions whatsoever), because Democrats are dumb enough to nominate him for president on some bipartisanship kick. I'm naive and do think if this did happen Christie would probably moderate his social issue positions - I doubt he personally cares about gay marriage or abortion either way to keep pushing it beyond FLIP FLOPPER calls, and if he went Democratic, he'd have some of that anyway. It won't really happen. I want to see a world where the GOP goes harder right, and Chris Christie is the nominee. My personal crazy political fan fiction: 2016 Republican Primary comes. Economy has improved, and it looking hopeful for Dems leaves other top-line candidates like Rubio sitting out, feeling their chances aren't good enough. The GOP's loss in 2012 pushes them to go even more conservative and crazy, the Tea Party voice winning out, the GOP brand is more tarnished. Christie says gently caress it, and runs anyway. It's 2012 all over again, possibly worse. Rick Santorum makes his second run. A ousted of congress in 2014 Michelle Bachmann runs again, saying God told her the people need her more than ever. A wild card crazy enters the scene, Todd Akin, believing he has a chance because he is an idiot. Rand Paul takes up his father's reigns, with none of the charm. Chris Christie is by far the most palatable, the media and 75% of the country accepts him as the inevitable... Except he's not. The toxicity of the GOP plummets turnout, but the crazies? The crazies always show up. Every primary counts, as Akin's last minute surge with Iowa and riding it out threatens Christie in the delegate count. It's almost a brokered convention, but Christie, somehow, someway, wins out. All the while, Christie is lambasted as a RINO. He's from Liberal New Jersey. He worked with Obama. We nominated a New England Moderate last time and lost. Everyone can easily see frustration building on Christie. He snaps at reporters, and FOX News goes full on attack on him every time. Clinton doesn't run on the Dem side, and Biden is easily accepted, with the Obama and Clinton machines behind him, everyone steps aside. Biden picks one of the Castro brothers as his VP. Christie doesn't have that luxury. Although the establishment knows he's poison, they know they have to fire up their dwindling base. GameChange'16 or whatever it shall be called reveals that although Christie fought it kicking and screaming, he had to choose Todd Akin as his Vice Presidential pick. Akin, now in the general, blunders like expected. He can't shut up about rape and other social conservative issues. Christie is asked about his running mate constantly, and keeps biting the heads off reporters. The first debate comes. Christie is visibly annoyed. The first question for him is about Akin. Christie has enough and slams Akin and goes on a massive rant against the insanity of his party. Biden is shocked at this, and kinda shrugs and agrees with Christie. The second and third debates boil down to Joe and Chris shooting the poo poo, talking about things of no consequence. The Media has no idea how to handle one side so obviously tossing in the towel. The vice presidential debate is Akin trying to 'salvage' the campaign, going on about real America, tradition, but tripping over himself...probably something about rape. Castro does no harm to the Biden ticket. Biden wins the election, Obama 2012 Map+ North Carolina/Indiana/Missouri. Christie becomes a voice shouting down the crazies in his party and bluntly telling them they're not winning a loving election until they stop with the crazy. This has about a 0.00001% chance of happening. I don't rule it outside the realm of possibility because Rick "Homosexuality is like Bestiality" Santorum was a very much serious candidate in 2012. But man...we can dream. 
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Nov 21, 2012 17:48
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mlmp08 posted:Yeah if he power games this it will just lead to jerks saying the money is sufficient and poor people are dumb. McDoubles are a clear health choice. Grains: Buns Meats: Beef Patties Dairy: Cheese Vegetables: Ketchup 
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Dec 5, 2012 21:12
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Lee Harvey Oswald posted:Hillary would win Arkansas and the election easily, regardless of who Republicans run. Gotta wonder how much she's putting that into consideration for another run. because if she ran in the primary, I'd put her chances at roughly 80% to win the whole thing. It seems as so, but it was also thought like that in 2008. It's probably playing to Hillary's attention yes, but she's probably leering at one of the Castro brothers to suddenly s how up and steal it from her again.
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Dec 12, 2012 20:56
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Biden's sort of a meme, I've taken. Lot of internet liberals embrace Biden and his folksy charm, but most of the low-info voters on either side of the aisle buy the gaffe machine narrative. It'll be interesting if Hillary doesn't run. Biden will probably pick up the approval rating if he avoids reaffirming the gaffe machine narrative too much(outside, say, calling Obamacare a Big loving Deal) and presents himself as the witty yet wise elder statesman he's been doing as VP. On Biden vs. Cheney: The left is also more splintered than the right. Even in 2004, the right was lockstep behind GWB and Cheney. Whereas there's plenty of leftists who view the Obama administration as 90s Republicans and basically voted for him over Romney because Romney is Romney, and that's terrifying. You end up not really approving of the guy you voted for. That said, Biden has a better shot of being President(elected, and not with his two clones on the under-ticket) than Cheney ever did. Cheney never wanted it, and even if he did, I'd find it real hard for him to even compete given he was mostly invisible through the GWB years and he's not charming at all. I'm personally curious if in the case of a Biden 2016 nomination if he sways any voters from the right on simply being a white male, or if being attached to Obama(regardless of the success of term #2) taints him in their distorted world view. How much is race a factor, in say, Missouri?
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Jan 20, 2013 16:01
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Cuomo is probably the left's Mitt Romney. IE, most primed to take it(if no Biden/Hillary), but everyone hates him. I don't think the Dem bench is that terrible, at least when compared to the 2012 Republican bench - there's no active trainwrecks or people worth loathing in some of the lower names tossed about. O'Malley has kinda petered out in discussion due to some fumbles at the DNC - but honestly, O'Malley would still be preferable to any Republican, and I think he'd be able to carry it as such if some crazy long shot he got the nomination. But really, the Dem 2016 Primary race is either going to be an inevitable(Hillary/Biden) or fairly boring.(What venom can Cuomo really throw at the Castro brothers or Patrick?) As daunting as Chris Christie or Rubio is, they still have the crazy republican party behind them which will drag them to hell despite all their moderate appearance. ReindeerF posted:Biden/Schweitzer '16: Drivin' it like we stole it! As awesome as this would be, I really can't see the Dems doing double white guys again for years, if ever. Hillary/Schweitzer maybe, if it's Biden, his VP would be a Castro brother or maybe Kristen Gillibrand. Axetrain posted:Progressives I think should be pulling for schweitzer, he is relativley unknown to the population at large but is popular with those who do know him, he's also very much in favor of single payer and has a sort of folksy cowboy charm that would probably be appealing to south western voters. I want to see a Schweitzer led ticket bad, though. Character I think, means more than any issue - let's have the left do the folksy cowboy charm, present some progressive issues as more than big government, but instead 'common sense'. It could do wonders to help the messaging by repackaging what the right has tried so hard to spin as 'liberal ivory tower elite garbage', dumping the idea of 'Real America' right on its head. A leftist Sarah Palin, except you know, not an idiot and a trainwreck(okay so not that much like Sarah Palin). I really wonder if Schweitzer got the Obama Machine behind him and if it were marketed right, if he could turn Texas into a possible battleground - I think he'd definitely bring Montana at the very least.
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Feb 10, 2013 18:18
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