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Willa Rogers
Mar 11, 2005

sullat posted:

Cabinet level appointees are exempt from the Hatch Act.

Which makes me wonder, does Sebelius have any ambitions? She left a good job as Governor to work for Obama after all.

Her demeanor makes her look like her biggest ambition is to make it to her bed for a nap. (Seriously, every time I've seen her speak reminds me of that old SCTV skit about Perry Como lying on the couch while singing.)

Dusseldorf posted:

I don't keep a tuned to the right wing talk but has Hillary been picking up the usually right wing Clinton flack the last four years? I feel like this stint as SOS has really pushed her to be the top elder statespeople in the Democratic party much more than she was in 2008. Presumably the right wing media knows she is going to be a frontrunner in 2016 and will begin pushing a narrative ASAP, but what exists now?

I've seen grudging admiration toward her from the right--up till Benghazi (and that won't shake out till the investigations and hearings are completed). But in 2008, the worst of the Hillary Hate came from Obama supporters, who regurgitated a lot of the right-wing crap toward Hillary from the 1990s. (I'm not saying that hate wouldn't have ended up coming from the right if she'd been the nominee; only pointing out how the Obama campaign cannily seized on what was the '90s GOP hatred to help destroy her.)

In any case, her pre-Benghazi approvals were at an all-time high, and I agree with others who say the nomination is hers if she wants it. (Even though I voted for her as a LOTE in 2008, I'd much rather see someone outside of the DLC circles run and win. But the party has shifted so far to the right since Dean ran in 2004 I can't see anyone remotely progressive having a chance at the nomination, especially since, as Joementum pointed out, it's party leaders like Reid handpicking candidates behind closed doors, as they did with Obama, then putting the party muscle behind them.)

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Willa Rogers
Mar 11, 2005

^^^ I'd bet anything that Rubio or Martinez or any other Latino is on the GOP ticket, prolly as veep, given current demographics of the country and given that 75 percent of yesterday's Latino vote went to Obama.

Ardennes posted:

Yeah, there is way too much money in politics at this point for someone that actually wants to change things to get real institutional support. At least, progressives and young liberals could back a candidate and force the centerist whomever they may be to pander to them and maybe get a VP they like.

Granted, I wonder what the big lure for progressives is going to be in 2016 since they used up taxes and gay marriage and no way are they going to push weed. I guess they could do climate change but that isn't really something you can run a campaign on (especially in Ohio/Pennslvania).


Dems will just continue to trot out their War on Women rhetoric, as they do every 4 years, and "progressives" will fall in line, as they do every 4 years. SCOTUS and repro rights has been a scare-meme since 1980 and will continue to be a scare-meme till Dem presidents have replaced all 5 conservatives on the Court.

quote:

There will probably be a compromise for amnesty by then so I guess it might be something health-care related or they could try for a triple by promising not to continue the Bush tax cuts.

The "Bush" tax cuts that are due to elapse at the end of this year? Nah, by then a Grand Bargain will have passed and lowered all the rates in exchange for pushing back Medicare eligibility to age 67.

I'd reckon the 2016 Dem fights will be all about continuing the subsidies to private insurers with taxpayers' money, given that PPACA caps individual costs while not constraining insurance costs.

vvv Because she had a lock on 2008 before Reid and Daschle convinced Obama to run.

Willa Rogers fucked around with this message at 01:19 on Nov 8, 2012

Willa Rogers
Mar 11, 2005

^^^ That meme got trotted out a lot this year regarding Romney's Mormonism, which didn't have any effect on evangelical voters from what I can tell.

Adar posted:

I would have (and came close to) betting a lot of money that this cycle's pick would be a minority. Instead, the choices wound up Christie and Ryan. Never underestimate the ability of the GOP to shoot themselves in the head on this point.

True--but given the country's demographics and trends their only option is to cede the presidency to Dems for the foreseeable future.

Besides, they do have popular pols like Rubio and Martinez.

Willa Rogers fucked around with this message at 05:52 on Nov 8, 2012

Willa Rogers
Mar 11, 2005

Adar posted:

Obama's best play by a mile is to do immigration reform early next Congress. It'll probably happen. How the GOP reacts to that determines whether there's any chance of a Hispanic nom or if picking a Hispanic veep would have any effect. It's certainly clear that the civil war will be in full bloom the minute that bill hits Congress.

The DREAM executive order is due to expire in 2014, I believe, which will conveniently coincide with the midterms.

Willa Rogers
Mar 11, 2005

Kamala Harris. She's pretty much an up-n-coming pol, one of the few younger and more interesting officeholders. Deborah Bowen, Califonia's SoS, is also good, and I'd love to see her run for the U.S. Senate once Boxer and Feinstein head to their crypts.

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