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Knightmare posted:That's the main concern, yes. I wasn't involved in p2p lending in 2008 but the recession tore through the main p2p site at the time (I forget the name, maybe it was Prosper?)
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Jul 12, 2016 06:08
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Yeah I put in an IRA contribution January of this year, but don't plan on putting in any more. Only buying 3 year notes, so hopefully won't be hit too hard in the next recession. Of course all my reinvested notes will be hit but at least my original investment should be mostly repaid
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Jul 15, 2016 06:54
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April posted:Same here. Last month set a record for my interest paid. would be interested in an update, particularly a long range historical that shows your performance since you began (2012?)
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Sep 9, 2016 07:21
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Ok - I started in November of 2011. Here are my notes to date: My Notes at-a-Glance 3621 Not Yet Issued 18 Issued & Current 2,092 In Grace Period 9 Fully Paid 1,231 Late 16 - 30 Days 8 Late 31 - 120 Days 35 Default 1 Charged Off 227 And here are my payments: Payments $60,852.22 Payments to Date $60,852.22 Principal $50,140.41 Interest $10,709.70 Late Fees $2.10 I have not added any funds in the last couple of months, but it's still growing nicely. For example, in August, I deposited $0, but my total open notes went up by 30. My total deposits, over the 5 years I've been in, were slightly under 30k, and my current account value is around $36,600. A 20% gain over 5 years doesn't look like much, but keep in mind, I put in a few hundred here and there for 5 years, so some of those deposits are much newer. My net annualized return is around 7.94%. Also, most of my charge-offs are older, from when I was not as choosy on picking notes, and going on emotion rather than numbers. Not sure if all this is what you guys were asking, so let me know if there's anything else you'd like to know.
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Sep 10, 2016 12:06
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April posted:Also, most of my charge-offs are older, from when I was not as choosy on picking notes, and going on emotion rather than numbers. You might want to calculate the value of that time as a cost, since it scales linearly in a way that a mutual fund doesn't -- if you wanted to double the amount you were investing in this, you'd need to do twice as much picky-choosey-work.
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Sep 11, 2016 04:59
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ShadowHawk posted:How much "work" do you put into it though? I now use bluevestment to automate my note-buying. I spent an hour or so setting up filters when I signed on with them, maybe a year ago, and now I spend about a half hour or so once a month updating my database.
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Sep 11, 2016 15:32
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April posted:I now use bluevestment to automate my note-buying. I spent an hour or so setting up filters when I signed on with them, maybe a year ago, and now I spend about a half hour or so once a month updating my database. Mind sharing your bluevestment filters?
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Sep 17, 2016 23:55
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Nifty posted:Mind sharing your bluevestment filters? Here's a screenshot: 
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Sep 18, 2016 01:38
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So prosper is getting rid of their secondary loan market:quote:A Message from Prosper and Folio Investing I have a decent amount of money in both prosper and lending club. I think this is going to prompt me to slowly cash out of Prosper. I haven't used the secondary market much, but I like that it exists, one of the big draws for p2p lending for me is that it is semi-liquid. You would think that the people at prosper would understand this is a major part of its value proposition? I wasn't really ever too spooked by the LC controversy earlier in the year but it did kind of get me to start worrying about Prosper. It's a private company and under much less scrutiny. Is this a first sign of some internal troubles or am I just being paranoid? Anyone else planning to back away from Prosper because of this?
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Oct 12, 2016 04:57
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a cat posted:I have a decent amount of money in both prosper and lending club. I think this is going to prompt me to slowly cash out of Prosper. I haven't used the secondary market much, but I like that it exists, one of the big draws for p2p lending for me is that it is semi-liquid. You would think that the people at prosper would understand this is a major part of its value proposition?
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Oct 12, 2016 06:10
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a cat posted:Anyone else planning to back away from Prosper because of this? This is hosed for them, I'd have to think. I've recently been building up my Prosper balance but will now be looking for another LC alternative (I still use LC as a primary P2P site) to diversify and won't be adding more. I'll ride it out otherwise, but not sure about re-investing returns.
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Oct 12, 2016 13:10
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ShadowHawk posted:Are you gonna dump your loans or hold them to the end? I think I'll hold them and just cash out the proceeds instead of reinvesting from now on. Also, Lending Club too seems to have deemphasized note trading at least in their user interface, it's pretty hard to find. I found it, but it's clearly not considered a first class feature. I wonder if the note trading days numbered there too? a cat fucked around with this message at 17:03 on Oct 12, 2016 |
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Oct 12, 2016 17:00
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Seems like Prosper new issues are way easier to get E-HR grades all of a sudden.
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Oct 17, 2016 17:13
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I have a few hundred dollars 'extra' from my bonus this year and wanted to see if I can use that to get into P2P lending. It looks like Lending Club is the way to go. If I steal April's Bluevestments filter and throw $500~ (while taking other general advice, such as paying attention to what potential borrowers write, and how the write it, the purpose of the loan, etc.), will I at least avoid shooting myself in the foot long enough to learn the ropes to make this a potentially longer term investment?
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Dec 25, 2016 21:51
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Canine Blues Arooo posted:I have a few hundred dollars 'extra' from my bonus this year and wanted to see if I can use that to get into P2P lending. It looks like Lending Club is the way to go. If I steal April's Bluevestments filter and throw $500~ (while taking other general advice, such as paying attention to what potential borrowers write, and how the write it, the purpose of the loan, etc.), will I at least avoid shooting myself in the foot long enough to learn the ropes to make this a potentially longer term investment? Do you have six months living expenses in cash saved, and already contribute a "normal" amount to a traditional retirement account? What time frame are you planning have this money tied up for? $500 is 20 notes which still allows for a lot of variance, meaning you could easily do worse than break even. It's definitely not that uncommon for loans to default and just a few bad coin flips and you will lose money on your investment. Though you probably won't lose the bulk of the $500 at least. Ignoring the variance issue, the big question is "would I be better off putting this in a stock index fund and not touching it?" Personally, and these are just non scientific feelings, I feel the two are fairly compatible in terms of returns and risk IF (and this is a big IF) you took out of the equation the meta consideration that this is all uncharted territory, that no one knows how these notes perform in worse market environments, that it's not a guarantee Lending Club is still a company in ten years, future regulation, etc etc etc. That said, these opinions all err on the side of extreme safety, and are not necessarily things I followed to a T throughout my life or p2p investment career, and I have probably more in lending club than is strictly a good idea right now. If this is money you would otherwise spend on dumb poo poo or something, it's not the worst place you can put your money.
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Dec 26, 2016 02:20
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I've got money in the bank for about a half a year and contribute 10% to my 401k. I've no debt and so this money is very 'safe' money in that I'm ready to lose it all on an investment experience. I'd like to commit to 36 month notes until I gain more confidence in my understanding and the system as a whole. Are their bulk statistics about default rates, expected returns, etc that one can view by chance?
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Dec 26, 2016 02:30
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Canine Blues Arooo posted:I've got money in the bank for about a half a year and contribute 10% to my 401k. I've no debt and so this money is very 'safe' money in that I'm ready to lose it all on an investment experience. Oh, yeah, you're good. Sorry, wasn't sure where you were coming from, so I just defaulted to super safe mode. There's a bunch of stats/data here: https://www.lendingclub.com/info/statistics-performance.action check out all the links below the "Lending Club Statistics" header. I use https://www.nsrplatform.com Which I think you can get totally free for the amount you're planning on putting in. They let you do some pretty quick, intuitive analysis. It helps if you google stuff like "simple lending club strategies" and then plug them in there. I never tried any competing platforms, and I'm not sure I'm 100% sold on the pay version of NSR (which I use), but there's really no drawbacks or costs for an account your size. There are competing ones that I think people have mentioned here but I've never tried, but they are probably also free for your account size.
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Dec 26, 2016 02:42
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From what I recall reading, you want to be able to invest around $2500 to mitigate problems with defaults, otherwise you're at a much higher risk for bad coin flips as stated above.
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Dec 26, 2016 03:11
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Also the returns are like 6-10% so it's a nice diversification for almost zero effort, but it's not amazing or anything.
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Dec 26, 2016 04:18
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This is a very credible and thorough blog on lending factors: https://www.orchardplatform.com/blog/
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Dec 26, 2016 06:15
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My LC returns have taken a dive over the last few months and the next few months aren't looking good either. I'm thinking I'm going to turn off auto reinvestment and let the remaining notes slowly run their course over the next 3 years. They're a pain at tax time and I don't have the desire to closely monitor the platform anymore.
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Apr 7, 2017 20:50
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Saint Fu posted:My LC returns have taken a dive over the last few months and the next few months aren't looking good either. I'm thinking I'm going to turn off auto reinvestment and let the remaining notes slowly run their course over the next 3 years. They're a pain at tax time and I don't have the desire to closely monitor the platform anymore. Same. I stopped a number of months ago when the CEO was fired and then the CFO quit shortly after. My returns have been quite a bit lower than their blend estimate and charge offs have been high. Like you I don't have time to micromanage it and with the auto-investment system, my returns aren't all that great.
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Apr 7, 2017 21:38
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I feel the same. My adjusted NAR is 3.39%. Not exactly awe inspiring.
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Apr 7, 2017 22:28
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Hmm, isn't poor performance here kind of a bellwether for the wider economy as well?
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Apr 7, 2017 22:53
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ohgodwhat posted:Hmm, isn't poor performance here kind of a bellwether for the wider economy as well? Prosper isn't performing like poo poo. Lending Club clearly relaxed their lending standards to build more volume, or otherwise their risk model is turning out to be poo poo.
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Apr 8, 2017 00:47
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Did the same with mine last September. The returns were starting to suffer and my delinquent notes kept increasing. Oddly enough, I noticed a lot of my notes getting paid off within the first 6 months - great that I'm getting my principal back but the returns from those notes were meh.ohgodwhat posted:Hmm, isn't poor performance here kind of a bellwether for the wider economy as well? It's possible - but I'd also look at how LC is vetting the people they agree to give loans to. Something just feels off.
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Apr 8, 2017 00:48
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I just had a couple of newly issued and 1-payment-history loans sell at a 5% markup over the last week. I guess there's literally no reason for me not to put all my notes up for sale on the aftermarket at a 5% markup, is there? It's strange; I would have thought the blue sky exemption would have obviated the need for people to buy aftermarket notes in lieu of investing via an actual LC account, hence no more purchases of loans at markup, but I guess not!
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Apr 17, 2017 22:21
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ohgodwhat posted:Hmm, isn't poor performance here kind of a bellwether for the wider economy as well? Nope. Ya'll are just speculating at a very inefficient (tax, expenses) and random way. I explained before in this thread why p2p investing is bad for about 98% of us. But to answer your question, just look at the S&P 500 as a gauge for the economy. And if you want to increase your net wealth through investments tax efficient or not, invest in an index fund that mirrors it (VFINX for example).
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May 8, 2017 17:59
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My return after tax is a bit over 9%. That is a bit more consistent now that NZ's main P2P lender has been established for a few years now.
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May 11, 2017 23:42
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Devian666 posted:My return after tax is a bit over 9%. That is a bit more consistent now that NZ's main P2P lender has been established for a few years now. I had similar returns for many years, but the last two years It went from that, to 7.5%, to 4.7% returns, to like 0.5% returns this year (annualized). I consider it great that I haven't actually lost principle, but the returns are discouraging lately.
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May 12, 2017 01:46
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Is the drop in returns tied to an increased default rate? Or are there significant arrears that have been building up?
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May 12, 2017 02:09
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