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Jalumibnkrayal
Apr 16, 2008

Ramrod XTreme

slap me silly posted:

The fact that you can be reinvesting that $3200/mo in something else. To get that 5%, you effectively averaged the 9.5% return of the lending investment with the 0% return from letting your $3200/mo sit and moulder.

Ahh. Thank you very much.

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Sparta
Aug 14, 2003

the other white meat

slap me silly posted:

The fact that you can be reinvesting that $3200/mo in something else. To get that 5%, you effectively averaged the 9.5% return of the lending investment with the 0% return from letting your $3200/mo sit and moulder.

Ahhhh -- I didn't realize they calculated prospective reinvestment in to the projections.

slap me silly
Nov 1, 2009
Grimey Drawer
Well, it's not that so much as that they estimate based on the time your money is actually in the instrument. If you make the mistake of assuming you don't need to reinvest to get the calculated return, that's on you.

Not meaning to sound all hoity toity because I went through exactly this same bit of head-scratching before I started buying notes a few years back...

slap me silly fucked around with this message at 03:46 on Dec 5, 2012

Fork of Unknown Origins
Oct 21, 2005
Gotta Herd On?
It's just compound interest basically, right? If a bank took the interest that you savings account generated and put it in a non-interest generating account and you never moved it to the savings account then you would have a lower rate of return. Due to how a savings account is structured they don't do that, but the math (assuming no delinquent notes) works out the same, right?

Adar
Jul 27, 2001
So what exactly has changed about LC/Prosper since '08-ish? Any good articles that sum up the industry now?

I have a five year old Prosper account I never funded; it looked promising pre-recession but my spider sense kept tingling and sure enough, everyone getting in during the early years got killed. How has LC learned from this?

spf3million
Sep 27, 2007

hit 'em with the rhythm

Fork of Unknown Origins posted:

It's just compound interest basically, right? If a bank took the interest that you savings account generated and put it in a non-interest generating account and you never moved it to the savings account then you would have a lower rate of return. Due to how a savings account is structured they don't do that, but the math (assuming no delinquent notes) works out the same, right?
I don't think it's exactly like this because the way the notes work out is that the first month contains the largest percentage of the interest. Basically they assign an interest rate, figure out how much total money that person is going to owe over the 3 or 5 years (however long the duration of the note is) and divide that total number by the number of months. This way you as the lender get back the same total amount every month (same monthly payment) but the percentage that is interest decreases every month while the percentage that is principal increases. Pretty sure this is how all common loans are done (mortgage, car, school, etc).

Fork of Unknown Origins
Oct 21, 2005
Gotta Herd On?
Right, but when you get those payments and then reinvest them that's where it becomes compound interest, in my head anyway. Am I approaching this wrong?

Alereon
Feb 6, 2004

Dehumanize yourself and face to Trumpshed
College Slice

Adar posted:

I have a five year old Prosper account I never funded; it looked promising pre-recession but my spider sense kept tingling and sure enough, everyone getting in during the early years got killed. How has LC learned from this?
The only real lesson I can think of is the same thing everyone should have known going in: you're betting on people's ability/willingness to pay back unsecured loans. This means, implicitly, that you're betting that the economic environment will make it possible/reasonable for them to pay off that loan. If people are losing their houses because they can't pay their mortgages, credit cards and P2P loans are out of luck. I just don't see how anyone who lived through this time in the US could have expected different performance. On the plus side, this was really a once-in-a-few-decades kind of recession.

Jalumibnkrayal
Apr 16, 2008

Ramrod XTreme
Picked up some notes @ 13.41% weighted average. I was probably too conservative, but we'll see. Did I read correctly on one of the data collection sites that one user has over a hundred million invested in notes? That's...something.

cheese eats mouse
Jul 6, 2007

A real Portlander now
Definitely going to not do too much heavy investing with this. I'll probably start with $250 into 3 year notes. I'm pretty conservative with my vetting as well. If they're revolving credit or debt to income ratio is too high I don't bite. Also, I use a rule that if I can't afford the monthly payment then they can't either.

I did see someone who worked at Wal-mart asking for a 30K loan. Yea right..

Spiro Agnew
Oct 4, 2008
I have been in prosper for a little over a year with $500 invested. So far no defaults or late payments on any notes, and a 12% return. My strategy is to avoid debt consolidation loans because those borrowers seem likely to figure out that bankruptcy is better than paying double digit interest for 3-5 years. I aim for high income people that are bad with money and want to finance impulse buys. There are lots of professionals who want to remodel their kitchens, I give them my money. I haven't found a tool that compares default rates by loan purpose.

My question is, has anyone tried doing this through a roth ira? The structure and time frame seem amenable to this. Prosper was pushing it last year around tax time, but that option seems to have disappeared.

April
Jul 3, 2006


quote:

I haven't found a tool that compares default rates by loan purpose.

I think interest radar does that somewhat - it looks at certain words in the description, and goes from there.


So far, still holding at 2 possible defaults, 284 notes issued and 58 in funding/review. Monthly payments totaling $212.21. I will be doing one more large-ish deposit on 12/14, then going back to just buying 10 notes per pay.

I obviously don't have a crystal ball, but I think if I stick to the minimum per note, and keep compounding as much as possible, I should be able to get a decent chunk over the next few years. I should add, my husband and I also put as much as possible into our Roth IRA's, and his 401k. What I put into LC is only about 15% of our long-term savings money.

Contra Duck
Nov 4, 2004

#1 DAD
From the OP:

April posted:

For this particular loan, I contributed $25.00, and my share of the monthly payment is $0.85. Over the life of the loan, I will earn $30.60, or slightly over 20%

So you go to the effort of vetting these things for the possibility of making $5.60 in 3 years time? This sounds somewhat silly :/

Uranium 235
Oct 12, 2004

cheese eats mouse posted:

Definitely going to not do too much heavy investing with this. I'll probably start with $250 into 3 year notes. I'm pretty conservative with my vetting as well. If they're revolving credit or debt to income ratio is too high I don't bite. Also, I use a rule that if I can't afford the monthly payment then they can't either.

I did see someone who worked at Wal-mart asking for a 30K loan. Yea right..
Just because they work for Wal-Mart doesn't mean they work in a retail store. I wouldn't bet on that unless they live in northwest Arkansas (Wal-Mart HQ), though.

ibntumart
Mar 18, 2007

Good, bad. I'm the one with the power of Shu, Heru, Amon, Zehuti, Aton, and Mehen.
College Slice

Contra Duck posted:

From the OP:


So you go to the effort of vetting these things for the possibility of making $5.60 in 3 years time? This sounds somewhat silly :/

You're completely missing the point. People who invest $25 in a loan don't stop at just one. They're putting money down on a number of loans and probably investing more every month (or at least periodically).

Fork of Unknown Origins
Oct 21, 2005
Gotta Herd On?
Yes, and the search tools make it pretty quick and easy to filter and search for the type loan you want to give.

spf3million
Sep 27, 2007

hit 'em with the rhythm

Contra Duck posted:

So you go to the effort of vetting these things for the possibility of making $5.60 in 3 years time? This sounds somewhat silly :/
Well if you wanted to plunk down a big chunk on a single note you're certainly able to do so.

My sole grade A note had a failed payment after 14 straight months of being on time. Just goes to show that the A/Bs aren't always as rock solid as they seem. (obviously tiny sample size just sayin).

cheese eats mouse
Jul 6, 2007

A real Portlander now

Uranium 235 posted:

Just because they work for Wal-Mart doesn't mean they work in a retail store. I wouldn't bet on that unless they live in northwest Arkansas (Wal-Mart HQ), though.

Don't remember if they did, but I just didn't want to chance it since retail is so volatile when it comes to working hours.

Alereon
Feb 6, 2004

Dehumanize yourself and face to Trumpshed
College Slice

Saint Fu posted:

My sole grade A note had a failed payment after 14 straight months of being on time. Just goes to show that the A/Bs aren't always as rock solid as they seem. (obviously tiny sample size just sayin).
Yeah that's why I don't invest in A-rated loans, the return is too low to justify the risk in my opinion. For similar reasons I don't invest in F or G-rated loans. The Lending Club loan details page has useful information I used to decide on this strategy. Here's the percentage of loans that are currently in a bad status (late/charge-off/default) by rating, along with the average interest rate and net annualized return (after defaults and such):
pre:
Bad rate | Avg %  | Net % (includes bad rate)
A: 1.21% |  7.47% |  5.71%
B: 2.05% | 11.68% |  8.90%
C: 3.27% | 14.44% | 10.23%
D: 4.24% | 17.07% | 11.78%
E: 5.23% | 19.07% | 13.03%
F: 6.44% | 21.10% | 13.53%
G: 9.83% | 21.76% | 12.21%
Based on those numbers you can see there is a relatively small increase in risk from going to A-rated to B-rated loans, but a much larger jump in returns. There's also disproportionately larger increases in risk going from E-rated to F-rated loans, and especially from F-rated to G-rated. It would obviously be a poor choice to invest in G-rated loans as the interest rates just don't justify the risk. The net annualized returns (which have the bad outcome rate "baked in") indicate that F-rated loans are about as good as E-rated loans, which would make them a great option if you think you can pick buyers that won't default (you probably can't), but given the smaller sample size and lack of compelling benefit I just don't feel it's worth the investment over E-rated loans.

Bonus Edit: Based on a quick glance, there are currently no loans at F or G-ratings that meet my search criteria to even look at, but if I found an F-rated loan I liked I might consider it.

Alereon fucked around with this message at 18:55 on Dec 9, 2012

FrozenVent
May 1, 2009

The Boeing 737-200QC is the undisputed workhorse of the skies.
Is there a similar service in Canada? It sounds like a fun thing to do with slush savings...

kansas
Dec 3, 2012
Am I missing something? This seems like a huge amount of work to do for such a small return... You could scale it up, but the risk is high so I'm not sure that would be a wise idea.

GAYS FOR DAYS
Dec 22, 2005

by exmarx
Why does LC have a $70,000 annual gross income requirement in states other than California and Kentucky? Is this something that they really even look into? This is something I'm interested in, but I wouldn't meet that requirement.

Alereon
Feb 6, 2004

Dehumanize yourself and face to Trumpshed
College Slice

kansas posted:

Am I missing something? This seems like a huge amount of work to do for such a small return... You could scale it up, but the risk is high so I'm not sure that would be a wise idea.
It's not really a lot of work at all, everything you could want to know is on one page and there are rather effective search filters. My workflow is to run my filter and open up the results in tabs, take a quick glance at each one and close any tabs that don't look good (job/credit doesn't look stable), then pick between the few remaining options that look good to me. I would say it averages about 2-3 minutes per $25 loan, and you don't have to do anything else for the 3-5 years the loan lasts.

Scaling up (in the form of investing in more $25 loans) is a good thing for your risk because it reduces the impact of a single loan defaulting and moves you closer to the net annualized return. Note that this does NOT reduce your risk from overall economic factors that make people less able to return loans in general.

Dead Pressed
Nov 11, 2009

monsieur fatso posted:

Why does LC have a $70,000 annual gross income requirement in states other than California and Kentucky? Is this something that they really even look into? This is something I'm interested in, but I wouldn't meet that requirement.
Can't answer that but it may be worth looking into prosper if that's a limiting constraint. I chose to after not meeting their net worth value.

SubjectVerbObject
Jul 27, 2009

kansas posted:

Am I missing something? This seems like a huge amount of work to do for such a small return... You could scale it up, but the risk is high so I'm not sure that would be a wise idea.

Correct me if I am wrong, but the days of getting ~5% returns without any work are pretty much over. For comparison,Bankrate is telling me that 3 year CD rates are about 1.3%.

Uranium 235
Oct 12, 2004

SubjectVerbObject posted:

Correct me if I am wrong, but the days of getting ~5% returns without any work are pretty much over. For comparison,Bankrate is telling me that 3 year CD rates are about 1.3%.
Well you can always just throw money in a stock market index fund. That takes almost no work. There's no way of knowing what return you'll get, but 5% isn't out of the question.

SubjectVerbObject
Jul 27, 2009

Uranium 235 posted:

Well you can always just throw money in a stock market index fund. That takes almost no work. There's no way of knowing what return you'll get, but 5% isn't out of the question.

Yeah, I probably should have added "and without decent risk". LC looks like it takes work, but by doing so you can get returns and minimize risk.

April
Jul 3, 2006


quote:

Am I missing something? This seems like a huge amount of work to do for such a small return... You could scale it up, but the risk is high so I'm not sure that would be a wise idea.

The return on individual notes isn't much, especially if you put the minimum on each note. What's exciting to me is the compounding that can happen. If you get enough notes to reinvest in new notes every so often, you keep spreading out the risk, and growing your returns, without putting in any more of your own money.

Astonishing Wang
Nov 3, 2004
I just took a debt consolidation loan through LendingClub. It's a very easy process and I'm happy to have one payment now instead of 3, and I saved ~6% on the interest rate. The loan is at 9% vs. the 15% I had with Chase. Payments come out of my bank account automatically, with a reminder e-mail 5 days in advance. The loan was funded within a week. It got to around 50% funded, with about 25 people putting some in, and then one guy took the whole rest of it. It's neat to have all of these individuals putting their 'faith' in me and helping me out.

Jalumibnkrayal
Apr 16, 2008

Ramrod XTreme

Astonishing Wang posted:

I just took a debt consolidation loan through LendingClub. It's a very easy process and I'm happy to have one payment now instead of 3, and I saved ~6% on the interest rate. The loan is at 9% vs. the 15% I had with Chase. Payments come out of my bank account automatically, with a reminder e-mail 5 days in advance. The loan was funded within a week. It got to around 50% funded, with about 25 people putting some in, and then one guy took the whole rest of it. It's neat to have all of these individuals putting their 'faith' in me and helping me out.

It's nice to read an account from the other side. I was incredibly skeptical about the 27% interest rates on some P2P loans, but then I learned that many credit cards will soon have a max interest rate of 29.99%. I guess it makes sense to consolidate at anything less than that.

Does anyone know if there's a way to monitor a specific loan's performance without investing in it? Or one from the past? I'm skeptical about some loans that reach 100% funding but I don't know how to see if my call was correct or not.

April
Jul 3, 2006


I don't think you can do that - once the loan is funded, you can only see it if it's actually in your portfolio.

You could look on the trading site, though, and see if someone is trying to offload it?

spf3million
Sep 27, 2007

hit 'em with the rhythm
Is LC down for anyone else?

April
Jul 3, 2006


quote:

Is LC down for anyone else?

It was down for me for a couple of hours earlier, seems to be back up & running now.

Dukket
Apr 28, 2007
So I says to her, I says “LADY, that ain't OIL, its DIRT!!”
I know its been said before, but my God it takes a long time to transfer money to Lending Club.

Content: I read today that they are expanding to Indiana.

Jalumibnkrayal
Apr 16, 2008

Ramrod XTreme
I seem to have interest trickling into my account? Every day it adds a few cents. It's enough that over a year it would be significant. I thought it might be an ongoing estimate of the payback rate of the notes over time, but it's much less than that.

April
Jul 3, 2006


Jalumibnkrayal posted:

I seem to have interest trickling into my account? Every day it adds a few cents. It's enough that over a year it would be significant. I thought it might be an ongoing estimate of the payback rate of the notes over time, but it's much less than that.

The accrued interest is added daily, then moved to "available cash" when a payment is made.

Sylink
Apr 17, 2004

How good is this for borrowers? I wouldn't mind refinancing a credit card debt because the current APR is awful.

MikeRabsitch
Aug 23, 2004

Show us what you got, what you got

Sylink posted:

How good is this for borrowers? I wouldn't mind refinancing a credit card debt because the current APR is awful.

AW just took out a loan a little over a week ago and sounds like it went smoothly:

Astonishing Wang posted:

I just took a debt consolidation loan through LendingClub. It's a very easy process and I'm happy to have one payment now instead of 3, and I saved ~6% on the interest rate. The loan is at 9% vs. the 15% I had with Chase. Payments come out of my bank account automatically, with a reminder e-mail 5 days in advance. The loan was funded within a week. It got to around 50% funded, with about 25 people putting some in, and then one guy took the whole rest of it. It's neat to have all of these individuals putting their 'faith' in me and helping me out.

April
Jul 3, 2006


I just had my first charge-off. The borrower had made several payments, so my loss was only about $20. I have a few others that are over 30 days late, but I'm thinking it's the season for bad financial choices, and I'm hoping they start getting back on track in January. Here's how my account looks right now:

quote:

My Notes at-a-Glance (433)
In Funding: 87
Issued & Current: 335
Fully Paid: 6
Late 16 - 30 Days: 1
Late 31 - 120 Days: 3
Default: 0
Charged Off: 1

If the 3 that are over 30 days late end up defaulting, that's still less than a 1% failure rate. I'm still getting regular payments, and so far it looks like this:

quote:

Payments to Date - $607.75
Principal - $398.89
Interest - $208.86
Late Fees - $0.00

So far, so good! Most of my notes are newer, though, so it'll be interesting to see how it plays out over the next year or so.

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Sylink
Apr 17, 2004

I applied for a loan but it wasn't that great of a rate nor was it enough to actually consolidate the debt and be worthwhile.

That was neat, though. For the record, I have good credit but I'm guessing the amount of debt is too high for them or something.

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