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Keisari
May 24, 2011

quote:

The first is that people are people, and it’s possible for a borrower to not pay off their loan.

I'm interested in what exactly happens if someone flat out refuses to pay their loan. Are you just poo poo out of luck or what? I mean do the same legal aspects apply to this as to regular bank loans?

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Keisari
May 24, 2011

I see, I see. I snooped a little bit around their site and this sure is atleast intriguing and the idea is interesting. They're essentially a broker for loans, and that's kinda cool.

A shame it's US only, I probably could've put in 25bux just out of morbid curiosity.

Keisari
May 24, 2011

Yeah I saw interest rates vary between 6-27%. While 27% is a lot, 6-7% doesn't sound too bad. Granted, I don't know anything about loans.

Keisari
May 24, 2011

It could be just me, but I think you are presuming dangerously much. Considering you have 5 fully paid loans, a lot could still go wrong if people can basically just walk away from the loans and LC makes only a token effort to get anything back. After all, they themselves haven't got that much money on the loans so they don't have much incentive to do so. I mean, from your 337 loans only 1.4% of your investment is fully recovered and cashed out. (If you only dish $25 on each.)

I guess time will tell. I'm certainly interested how this thing turns out.

Keisari
May 24, 2011

True, I didn't account for partly paid loans. You obviously would keep everything you've made so far from interest before your capital tanks, cutting your losses quite a bit. If you put the min. amount as you said on the loans you've made a little over 5% of your capital back at this point. (I think? I've never been a math pro.) Sure it itself doesn't really matter but I'm just gauging the risk factors, and it would seem that the people loaning (Lendees? Not a native speaker here.) don't get much poo poo for not paying back, and the LC doesn't lose much if they don't, so there's not going to be much action going on in case someone refuses to pay. On the other hand, looking back to the previous list, you only have 2 loans that are likely to default as of now, just like you said earlier. For the rest time will tell.

After those loans have gone through you've done enough of this stuff so you could basically create statistical data for yourself, you could list loans that have atleast broken even in profit versus the ones that have ended up making loss (Defaulted before you got to positive.) and then you could basically calculate a statistical chance of making money or losing it and how much, based on your current judgement. :v:

Keisari
May 24, 2011

April posted:

I haven't updated in a while, so here are my latest numbers for LC:


I'm not thrilled with the number of 31-120 days late notes, but I still think my overall proportions are good (less than 2% failure rate). I have tweaked my search settings for notes, so hopefully, I won't have too many more charge-offs.

On the plus side:


Still quite a few payments coming in. It seems like it's been taking even longer to get notes issued, however. The 36 pending notes are mostly from money I deposited in mid-December. I still plan to buy 10-12 notes every pay period for the rest of this year, so I will update periodically, if anyone is still interested. I admit, I've become a little obsessive about it.

I for one am still interested, even though I can never get on this myself. Just out of curiosity. I still haven't got a clear picture of how risky vs profitable this thing is and you posting your thing with numbers big enough could give a good picture in a while. (After your hundreds of in-progress bills get resolved one way or the other.)

How much did you lose on that charged off bill again? I mean he probably paid at least some of the money back and not immediately default.

Keisari
May 24, 2011

MC Fruit Stripe posted:

Yeah I'd love to know the answer to this because it sounds like dude made a payment of like, $16,000 and that's patently absurd.

Maybe he got an inheritance or something. v:shobon:v Although I guess those don't come at such short notice.

Keisari
May 24, 2011

This sounds dangerous. Drastically less borrowers than investors means there won't be any loans, which will increase demand through the roof, and probably mean that investors will (once again) just lower their standards, meaning that credit will be easy to get through this site and that will probably result in a lot of people getting burned when substandard loans are filled and later default.

Keisari fucked around with this message at 07:18 on Aug 24, 2013

Keisari
May 24, 2011

Well, if you guys can keep those 12-15% rates to be annual returns I can see you guys earning a very satisfactory return on your invested capital. I think those are really good returns considering you are loaning money and not owning equity in businesses.

Keisari
May 24, 2011

Man that is some amazing returns with very little apparent risk. I've said this before but must reiterate how jealous I'm about not having a comparable service here in Finland. :(

>12% returns are just amazing. Really good returns considering how low I expect the returns on the stock market to be with these valuations.

Keisari
May 24, 2011

I think 16% would be an absolutely ludicrous rate for any business loan. Prohibitively expensive. It's like founding a business on credit cards

Keisari
May 24, 2011

withoutclass posted:

It's opened up but the minimum is $2500

They want to make sure you can get appropriately diversified with that requirement I think.

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Keisari
May 24, 2011

Why not just continue to hand-pick the notes but put more per note? How much does diversifying into an extra note after 100 really reduce your risk? Would probably save you time on bookkeeping too! Now if we presume that p2p loan market isn't efficient, hand-picking reduces your default-rate-to-interest ratio and ergo you could probably earn more return on your capital.

On the other hand if you really hate hand-picking I guess then it makes sense to automate it. I just got into this thing and I love going through loan applications. Maybe I'm just a weirdo but it's a fun hobby. :v:

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