Canada Housing/Debt: Trust me, I'm a landlord.

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > Canada Housing/Debt: Trust me, I'm a landlord.

pancaek: Feb 6, 2004; sup fellaz

jet sanchEz posted:

Yeah, the Canadian banks stuck to the story that they were not bailed out but it came to light in 2012 that they had been bailed out, to the tune of $114 billion. I believe the rationale behind not making it publicly known was so as not to create a panic but, yeah, our banks hosed up just as bad as the American ones.

I think the banks are in trouble, yet. Moody's just downgraded six of them in late January, including TD and BMO: http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/story/2013/01/28/business-moodys-downgrades-banks.html

Vancouver RE is one of my favourite topics, mostly because I get to watch it from a spectator view instead of a participant. Moved out of YVR in 2010 and haven't looked back. That city is insane :]

# ? Feb 23, 2013 03:36

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# ? Apr 26, 2024 14:58

Baronjutter: Dec 31, 2007; "Tiny Trains"

Does anyone have an article about how our banks got bailed out?

# ? Feb 23, 2013 05:19

Twiin: Nov 11, 2003; King of Suck!

Baronjutter posted:

Does anyone have an article about how our banks got bailed out?

The banks didn't get bailed out. The CCPA who I love with my whole heart wrote a total bullshit hay-guys-the-banks-got-bailed-out report that is totally misleading.

# ? Feb 23, 2013 09:05

an actual cat irl: Aug 29, 2004

Speaking as someone who's moving immigrating to Vancouver from London (UK) this summer, this thread has provided interesting reading.

It was obvious that the current market was a bubble, but I didn't realise quite how bad it is. It probably doesn't help that living in London has pre-conditioned me to think that spending $500-600k on a two bedroom apartment is perfectly acceptable and normal.

We'll be renting for at least the worst year, so hopefully the market takes a nosedive during that time. We're ultimately hoping to buy a place in Kits, but expecting the prices to bottom out there is probably too good to be true.

# ? Feb 23, 2013 10:36

jet sanchEz: Oct 24, 2001; Lousy Manipulative Dog

Twiin posted:

The banks didn't get bailed out. The CCPA who I love with my whole heart wrote a total bullshit hay-guys-the-banks-got-bailed-out report that is totally misleading.

This is the article I frist read about it in, I don't see how it is misleading, taxpayers propped up the banks.

http://www2.macleans.ca/2012/05/24/the-real-canadian-bank-bailout/

# ? Feb 23, 2013 16:53

Twiin: Nov 11, 2003; King of Suck!

jet sanchEz posted:

This is the article I frist read about it in, I don't see how it is misleading, taxpayers propped up the banks.

http://www2.macleans.ca/2012/05/24/the-real-canadian-bank-bailout/

The mortgages CMHC bought from banks were 'zero-risk', and as such were actually backed by CMHC in the first place. CMHC was always on the hook for these mortgages, and our banks were never in danger of insolvency. They were in danger of running out of free cash, however. So CMHC bought these mortgages and the banks had free cash. If they hadn't bought these mortgages the banks would have been fine, but they would have cancelled your credit card and stopped giving out new mortgages for a year until they collected enough payments from customers that they had enough free cash to give out new mortgages and credit cards.

In the US, the govt bought worthless underwater assets because the banks were going to go under. Our banks were never going to go under. Our government never bought anything worthless. Our government never assumed any additional liability. CMHC was always liable for the securities CMHC bought. It wasn't a bailout by any definition. Government has always offered liquidity support to banks. And it wasn't kept a secret either.

# ? Feb 23, 2013 18:05

Mrs. Wynand: Nov 23, 2002; DLT 4EVA

moron posted:

Speaking as someone who's moving immigrating to Vancouver from London (UK) this summer, this thread has provided interesting reading.

It was obvious that the current market was a bubble, but I didn't realise quite how bad it is. It probably doesn't help that living in London has pre-conditioned me to think that spending $500-600k on a two bedroom apartment is perfectly acceptable and normal.

We'll be renting for at least the worst year, so hopefully the market takes a nosedive during that time. We're ultimately hoping to buy a place in Kits, but expecting the prices to bottom out there is probably too good to be true.

Kits probably has enough rich people to support some very high prices for quite some time, collapse or not.

# ? Feb 23, 2013 19:17

StabbinHobo: Oct 18, 2002; by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

Twiin posted:

Government has always offered liquidity support to banks.

that sounds erie

# ? Feb 23, 2013 20:03

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

moron posted:

Speaking as someone who's moving immigrating to Vancouver from London (UK) this summer, this thread has provided interesting reading.

It was obvious that the current market was a bubble, but I didn't realise quite how bad it is. It probably doesn't help that living in London has pre-conditioned me to think that spending $500-600k on a two bedroom apartment is perfectly acceptable and normal.

We'll be renting for at least the worst year, so hopefully the market takes a nosedive during that time. We're ultimately hoping to buy a place in Kits, but expecting the prices to bottom out there is probably too good to be true.

What's your occupation? Did you take a pay cut?

# ? Feb 24, 2013 06:26

an actual cat irl: Aug 29, 2004

Cultural Imperial posted:

What's your occupation? Did you take a pay cut?

I work in IT, in support/sysadmin roles. I currently have a fairly decent job in London and 10+ years of experience, but I'm aware that I'll almost certainly be taking a pay cut, and it'll be harder to find a job than it is over here. Luckily, between myself and my wife, we have enough savings to cover us entirely for a year whilst we get settled in. Also, if/when the Vancouver housing market shits itself, we'll have around $200k set aside (from selling our apartment here) for a deposit on a place.

# ? Feb 24, 2013 10:33

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

moron posted:

I work in IT, in support/sysadmin roles. I currently have a fairly decent job in London and 10+ years of experience, but I'm aware that I'll almost certainly be taking a pay cut, and it'll be harder to find a job than it is over here. Luckily, between myself and my wife, we have enough savings to cover us entirely for a year whilst we get settled in. Also, if/when the Vancouver housing market shits itself, we'll have around $200k set aside (from selling our apartment here) for a deposit on a place.

Whoa whoa whoa, you're moving here without a job? Why on earth? Have you checked out what jobs here actually pay? You're probably looking at a 30% decline in income. I went through this experience myself 2 years ago. I also worked in IT in London and I would consider myself very lucky to have moved home (to Vancouver) in an internal transfer. There is no loving way I would have considered a move home without an internal transfer.

# ? Feb 24, 2013 17:43

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

Soooo...Vancouver is at an all-time high for unsold inventory.

# ? Feb 24, 2013 18:57

Mister Facetious: Apr 21, 2007; I think I died and woke up in L.A.,
I don't know how I wound up in this place...

Cultural Imperial posted:

Whoa whoa whoa, you're moving here without a job? Why on earth? Have you checked out what jobs here actually pay? You're probably looking at a 30% decline in income. I went through this experience myself 2 years ago. I also worked in IT in London and I would consider myself very lucky to have moved home (to Vancouver) in an internal transfer. There is no loving way I would have considered a move home without an internal transfer.

Speaking as someone who lives in the same city he does, I can wholeheartedly say that moving out of London (Ontario) is worth a pay cut.
It's the South :banjo:

/ Midwest (of I75) of Canada; a cultural wasteland full of fat, white, overly-religious old people, and mobility scooters.
Also, it's a drunken college town. That said, it's a very safe place to live, if utterly lacking in diversions that aren't bars.

First chance I got, I'd be out of here to Toronto.

Mister Facetious fucked around with this message at 19:41 on Feb 24, 2013

# ? Feb 24, 2013 19:33

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

Oops, I thought you meant London UK.

# ? Feb 24, 2013 21:17

Simulated: Sep 28, 2001; Lowtax giveth, and Lowtax taketh away.; College Slice

OSI bean dip posted:

Didn't Texas suffer the least when the banks started to implode? I seem to recall that their laws allowed them to weather the storm far better than the rest of the states save for one of the Dakotas. It doesn't explain Florida though.

Texas (and Dallas specifically) got hit really hard during the S&L crisis in the 80s, so a lot of our home equity line of credit, second mortgage, and lending standards are still based around not having people dig themselves into a hole. There were also people with memory of the crash; Dallas didn't build a new skyscraper from the time of the crash until the 2000s. There is also still plenty of land for suburban sprawl, and if you want to live somewhere with a mass transit system *and* at least some culture this is your only option outside of the coasts/Chicago. Granted - it doesn't compare to places like NYC, but people in Texas always say Dallas looks to New York and LA in an aspirational; they often mean it negatively but for the people looking for cheap housing or companies looking to move headquarters it's a huge plus.

So the short version is just like politics, all realestate is local.

Simulated fucked around with this message at 23:03 on Feb 24, 2013

# ? Feb 24, 2013 21:31

Darude - Adam Sandstorm: Aug 16, 2012

Mister Macys posted:

Speaking as someone who lives in the same city he does, I can wholeheartedly say that moving out of London (Ontario) is worth a pay cut.
It's the South / Midwest (of I75) of Canada; a cultural wasteland full of fat, white, overly-religious old people, and mobility scooters.
Also, it's a drunken college town. That said, it's a very safe place to live, if utterly lacking in diversions that aren't bars.

First chance I got, I'd be out of here to Toronto.

He's moving from the UK.

# ? Feb 24, 2013 21:52

Mister Facetious: Apr 21, 2007; I think I died and woke up in L.A.,
I don't know how I wound up in this place...

v

In that case, I seriously question his sanity. Australia/NZ would make more sense.
Better weather, better scenery, cricket, and soccer that isn't played by :downs:

...

Seriously, Canadians think soccer is what husbands do after drinking too much.

Mister Facetious fucked around with this message at 00:07 on Feb 25, 2013

# ? Feb 25, 2013 00:04

JawKnee: Mar 24, 2007; You'll take the ride to leave this town along that yellow line

Now now, we're far too polite for that

# ? Feb 25, 2013 03:09

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

http://extranet.centris.ca/FCIQ/Upload/collaboration_201302_an.pdf

Apparently realtors aren't allowed to disclose that properties for sale by the CMHC are in foreclosure.

Oh well.

edit: I mean repossession, not foreclosure.

# ? Feb 25, 2013 22:06

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

Not really new news but a poignant data point:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-27/canada-losing-debt-halo-as-bull-market-housing-peaks-with-carney.html

quote:

Herbert Crockett called Cairo, Geneva and New Delhi home in his four decades as a human resources executive with the World Health Organization. The Prince Edward Island native invested closer to his roots in 2005.

With Toronto on the verge of what turned into a colossal building spree, the 75-year-old retiree bought a C$904,000 ($878,000) one-bedroom suite in the Trump International Hotel & Tower. Eight years later, the 65-story skyscraper is complete, exuding Manhattan-style glamour.

For Crockett, fellow investors and Canadians alike, the glow is fading as home sales tumble, Bloomberg Markets magazine will report in its April issue. They say they�re worried that Canada�s debt-fueled expansion will stall before a global recovery can revive exports -- a slowdown that would blemish Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney�s record just as he begins his new job as head of the Bank of England on July 1.

More from the April 2013 issue of Bloomberg Markets:

BANK OF AMERICA: The Education of Brian Moynihan
�If the city is any indication of what�s going on in the country, it�s over-reliant on its housing sector,� Crockett says, pointing out a window of a downtown coffee shop to dozens of cranes swinging across the skyline. �I�m afraid of a condo crash, and then what will happen to all the investments?�

Toronto is awash in real estate. There were 144 skyscrapers under construction in late February, more than in any other city in the world, according to SkyscraperPage.com. Proposals for new condos reached 253,768 units at the end of the fourth quarter, up 10 percent from a year earlier, Toronto-based research firm Urbanation Inc. says. Four luxury hotels, each featuring condos, have opened in the past two years.

Gehry Towers

The projects keep coming. Frank Gehry, architect of the landmark Guggenheim Museum Bilbao in Spain, plans three towers. The highest, at 85 floors, would be North America�s tallest residential building.

Crockett, who lives in Crozet, France, says he�s losing C$7,000 a month amid the glut. He says his Trump suite, which guests rent through the hotel reservation system, is occupied about a quarter of the time. He�s suing Donald Trump and the developers for C$2.9 million for misrepresenting investment returns. About two dozen other buyers have brought similar cases.

Crockett says in his lawsuit that a presentation by developer Talon International Development Inc., referred to in court documents, put returns as high as 27 percent a year and that the company wasn�t transparent about room fees and mortgage financing. Crockett adds that after he bought the suite, Talon declined to answer questions about his investment.

Economy Stalling

Val Levitan, chief executive officer of closely held Talon, denies the allegations, dismissing them as buyer�s remorse. He says sales documents outline risks to investing in a hotel suite. Alan Garten, personal legal counsel for New York-based Trump Organization Inc., says Donald Trump wasn�t involved in selling the properties, calling the allegations �completely without merit.�

The weakening property market is just one sign that Canada�s economy, which everyone from International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde to Carney himself has touted as a model of stability, is stalling.

As recently as September, the World Economic Forum ranked Canada�s banking system the world�s soundest for the fifth straight year. Canada�s bank stocks never fell as far as their U.S. counterparts during the financial crisis, with the Standard & Poor�s/TSX Composite Commercial Banks Industry Index (STCBNK) first surpassing its 2007 high in early 2011 and setting a record on Feb. 20 this year.

�The Best�

Such performances likely helped Carney, 47, land his new post. British Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne called him �quite simply the best, most-experienced and most-qualified person in the world to do the job� in the surprise Nov. 26 announcement.

Now, as the former Goldman Sachs Group Inc. banker prepares to cross the Atlantic, Canada�s households are burdened with record debt, and third-quarter growth, at 0.6 percent, was the lowest in a year. Canada is scheduled to report fourth-quarter gross domestic product on Friday, with economists surveyed by Bloomberg News forecasting no change in growth. Moody�s Investors Service weighed in on Jan. 28. It downgraded six banks the WEF had lauded, saying debt and soaring home prices have left Canadians vulnerable to more bad news.

While Canada may get stellar marks for navigating the global credit crisis, it did so with a borrowing binge, says Benjamin Tal, deputy chief economist at the investment-banking unit of Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce.

�Payback Time�

�We basically borrowed our way out of this recession,� Tal says. �Now, it�s payback time. We will be in for a period of long, slow growth.�

Canada�s property blitz is winding down just as U.S. housing perks up. Construction of new Canadian homes plunged 19 percent in January from December to the lowest number since the end of 2009; sales of existing homes fell 8.8 percent from a year earlier. Toronto suffered a 36 percent decline in new condo sales in 2012 from 2011; resales dropped 10 percent, the first annual decline since 2008, Urbanation says.

Home prices are for the most part still rising on average in big cities -- except in Vancouver, where they fell 8 percent from their peak in May 2011 through January. In contrast, sales of new and previously owned U.S. properties rose 9.9 percent last year, the biggest annual gain since 1998.

Mortgage Changes

Hoda Seraji is experiencing Vancouver�s housing slowdown firsthand. A real estate agent, she took her own family�s two- story house in Canada�s third-largest city off the market after failing to get a single bite for the C$2.39 million home overlooking the Pacific. Cutting the price for the five-bedroom, four-bathroom residence didn�t help.

�Buyers are very skeptical, very hesitant because they think prices may go down,� she says.

Seraji blames fading interest from foreign investors, especially in China. Changes to Canada�s mortgage rules designed to cool the market have accelerated the sales drop, she says.

Finance Minister Jim Flaherty announced new regulations on home loans for the fourth time in four years in June, reducing the maximum amortization period on mortgages the government insures to 25 years from 30 years. It had been as high as 40 years in 2008.

Both Flaherty and Carney have campaigned against the perils of household debt, with Carney warning in June 2011 that valuations in some markets were reaching �severely unaffordable� levels.

Taxpayer Liability

Until the government�s latest tightening, however, Canadians weren�t listening. Carney slashed benchmark interest rates more than four percentage points to 0.25 percent during the recession, pushing five-year mortgage rates to less than 3 percent. That helped Canadians enjoy the lowest borrowing costs in the Group of 20 nations outside Europe, Japan and the U.S. Flaherty increased the stimulus with guarantees and tax credits for homeowners.

Encouraged by cheap money, Canadians couldn�t resist the housing market. The average price of homes sold jumped 82 percent during the 10 years through January, rising more than 30 percent from January 2009 alone, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association.

The value of mortgages insured by the government�s housing agency swelled 98 percent to $575.8 billion at the end of September from the end of 2006, foisting a growing liability onto taxpayers. Meantime, Canadians became more indebted than Americans in 2011. The ratio of household debt to disposable income has continued to rise, hitting a record 165 percent in the third quarter of 2012, according to Statistics Canada.

Official Hectoring

The mixed message of borrow but save isn�t lost on economists.

�It did seem a little unusual to have every policy maker in Ottawa hectoring Canadians about their excessive debt levels and yet the economic incentive for the average Canadian was completely slanted to taking on debt and not saving,� says Douglas Porter, chief economist at Bank of Montreal.

�The realist in me would admit it was the only tool the Bank of Canada had. The reality was, they really could not lift interest rates.�

With global rates so low, any independent increase would set off a surge in the Canadian dollar. Carney dampened expectations for higher borrowing costs at the end of January, saying rate increases were �less imminent� because of weaker- than-anticipated business investment and exports. He�ll be more than 18 months into his new job before his successor, who has yet to be named, raises borrowing costs again, some economists predict.

Exports Struggle

There�s little evidence exports will help Canada offset any drag from its housing-sparked debt addiction. In the third quarter, outbound shipments, including oil, plunged 7.8 percent from the second quarter and had dropped 8 percentage points to 30 percent of GDP since 2000.

Meantime, the share of GDP linked to housing, including construction and renovation, soared to more than 20 percent. A similar U.S. measure peaked at 18 percent in 2005. Canada�s share of construction jobs in total employment was 7.3 percent in January, above the 4.3 percent in the U.S.

�This heavy reliance is not healthy,� CIBC�s Tal says. �I expect to see some softening.�

Many of Canada�s construction workers have been toiling on Toronto�s condos. Lou Rivera wonders who will live in them. Rivera, 55, found out in November that property owner Mondelez Canada Inc., a unit of Mondelez International Inc. (MDLZ) will close this year the Mr. Christie�s bakery where he has worked as a production mechanic for 14 years and sell the land. The factory, which employs 550 people to pump out animal crackers and other snacks, may be replaced with 27 condo towers, documents filed with the city�s planning board say.

�Big Correction�

�What will happen, 550 people will be jobless,� Rivera says in the plant�s snow-covered parking lot, which already is hemmed in by new condo developments named Eau du Soleil and Ocean Club. �Will they work at the condos? No. Will they live in them? No.�

Steve Hennessey, a sales representative for Right at Home Realty Inc., Canada�s largest independent real estate brokerage, predicts Toronto home prices will tumble 20 percent during the next two years.

�We�re due for a big correction,� he says.

David Rosenberg, chief economist and strategist at Gluskin Sheff & Associates Inc. in Toronto, wonders what would trigger a slump. He expects rates to stay low.

Missing Ingredients

�I don�t think the Bank of Canada is going to have a smoking gun to raise interest rates,� says Rosenberg, who, as chief economist for North America at Merrill Lynch & Co. in New York from 2002 to 2009, was among the first economists to predict a U.S. housing collapse.

Canada is also missing ingredients that made the U.S. market so toxic -- subprime borrowers and banks that lent with little diligence. With about 62 percent of mortgages issued by Canadian banks insured by the federal government, the nation�s six big banks are more sheltered from delinquencies than American counterparts.

What may push Canadian housing over the edge, however, is another slowdown in the global economy. This could further weigh on exports and jobs, prompting the country�s maxed-out consumers to cool their love affair with real estate.

�As an economist working for a Canadian bank, I can�t go into a client meeting and have someone not ask me about housing in Canada,� says Tom Porcelli, chief U.S. economist at RBC Capital Markets LLC, Royal Bank of Canada�s investment-banking unit, in New York. �For U.S. investors, they are still a little gun-shy about what happened in the U.S., and I think they worry the same fate will happen to Canada.�

Timely Escape

While Crockett�s case against the Trump hotel�s developers winds through the courts and the once-hot housing market sputters, Carney will be facing new hurdles at the Bank of England. Jens Larsen, chief European economist at RBC Capital Markets in London, says Carney is likely to come up short.

�He had tremendous press, and it was a huge coup for the chancellor to be able to land him,� Larsen says. �You look at the expectations, and you look at the challenge he has in front of him, and some disappointment is likely.�

There are already signs of how difficult Carney�s job may be. Because Britain�s economy shrank in the fourth quarter, he could find himself struggling with fallout from an unprecedented triple-dip recession. Yet, if Canada�s home sales keep sliding and household debt keeps rising, the banker who helped orchestrate his nation�s vaunted growth and stability may consider his trans-Atlantic move a timely escape.

# ? Feb 27, 2013 17:41

unlimited shrimp: Aug 30, 2008

For what it's worth, I just received an email from a realtor with subject line "The Real Estate Market In the GTA Is Still Healhty!!"

The email goes on to reassure me that, though sales are down and number of unoccupied units are up, the Toronto market is still a seller's market and prices will increase steadily over the next year. Maybe more people are murmuring than I thought, if agents are starting to send out reassuring emails.

# ? Mar 6, 2013 23:02

rock lobster: Apr 29, 2012

Reminds me of a sign I once saw outside a chinese restaurant: "Don't worry! We don't have rats in our kitchen!"

# ? Mar 7, 2013 00:19

Baronjutter: Dec 31, 2007; "Tiny Trains"

Other than this thread everyone is telling me the price-dip is over (in Victoria) and NOW is the time to buy because the economy is heating up and everything is going to start going up soon. This is the low! Buy NOW!!

I tell them I want to wait at least a year, save up more, and hopefully get a lower price. They laugh at me and say things like "oh you must buy those doom and gloom cranks on the internet? They've been saying the bubble's going to burst for the last decade!" and tell me I'll be renting a tiny basement suite for the rest of my life if I'm waiting for a crash.

# ? Mar 7, 2013 00:28

unlimited shrimp: Aug 30, 2008

Baronjutter posted:

Other than this thread everyone is telling me the price-dip is over (in Victoria) and NOW is the time to buy because the economy is heating up and everything is going to start going up soon. This is the low! Buy NOW!!

I tell them I want to wait at least a year, save up more, and hopefully get a lower price. They laugh at me and say things like "oh you must buy those doom and gloom cranks on the internet? They've been saying the bubble's going to burst for the last decade!" and tell me I'll be renting a tiny basement suite for the rest of my life if I'm waiting for a crash.

Every time I hear something like that, I look at this picture and giggle uncontrollably:

# ? Mar 7, 2013 00:35

Twiin: Nov 11, 2003; King of Suck!

SpaceMost posted:

Every time I hear something like that, I look at this picture and giggle uncontrollably:

What's depressing is that dude still makes seven figures.

# ? Mar 7, 2013 01:18

Baronjutter: Dec 31, 2007; "Tiny Trains"

What's people like that author's excuse? "It would have been different if the GOVERNMENT didn't ruin things!" "It would have been different if those poors didn't buy houses they couldn't afford because that's 100% what caused the crash, poors!" "Alien bigfoot did it!" ???

# ? Mar 8, 2013 00:15

Zeitgueist: Aug 8, 2003; by Ralp

I had a wonderful conversation with a Canadian coworker recently(in the US) about how this isn't really a housing bubble because Canada "has better laws about that type of thing".

# ? Mar 8, 2013 00:20

Mrs. Wynand: Nov 23, 2002; DLT 4EVA

Zeitgueist posted:

I had a wonderful conversation with a Canadian coworker recently(in the US) about how this isn't really a housing bubble because Canada "has better laws about that type of thing".

Whew, well that's good to know!

# ? Mar 8, 2013 00:23

Mrs. Wynand: Nov 23, 2002; DLT 4EVA

Baronjutter posted:

What's people like that author's excuse? "It would have been different if the GOVERNMENT didn't ruin things!" "It would have been different if those poors didn't buy houses they couldn't afford because that's 100% what caused the crash, poors!" "Alien bigfoot did it!" ???

Sure!

# ? Mar 8, 2013 00:23

Zeitgueist: Aug 8, 2003; by Ralp

Mr. Wynand posted:

Whew, well that's good to know!

Yes, 1 million dollar hovels are the natural order of things, apparently.

# ? Mar 8, 2013 00:26

Mrs. Wynand: Nov 23, 2002; DLT 4EVA

Zeitgueist posted:

Yes, 1 million dollar hovels are the natural order of things, apparently.

Well it must be I mean if we have these better laws, right?

# ? Mar 8, 2013 01:01

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

Baronjutter posted:

Other than this thread everyone is telling me the price-dip is over (in Victoria) and NOW is the time to buy because the economy is heating up and everything is going to start going up soon. This is the low! Buy NOW!!

I tell them I want to wait at least a year, save up more, and hopefully get a lower price. They laugh at me and say things like "oh you must buy those doom and gloom cranks on the internet? They've been saying the bubble's going to burst for the last decade!" and tell me I'll be renting a tiny basement suite for the rest of my life if I'm waiting for a crash.

I get this all the time in Vancouver. People here can't seem to fathom that cities like Vancouver and Victoria are economic backwaters that have no business hovering at the cost of living levels that they do.

# ? Mar 11, 2013 14:00

Justin Trudeau: Apr 4, 2009; There's a level of admiration I actually have for China because their basic dictatorship is allowing them to actually turn their economy around on a dime

The Province posted:

OTTAWA � A TD Bank research report is warning that Canada�s real estate bonanza has come to an end and predicts home prices will be essentially flat for the next decade.

The TD report forecasts average house prices will move lower over the next few years before modestly rebounding after 2015.

But even with the rebound, TD predicts that home price increases will only rise about two per cent annually � essentially keeping pace with inflation.

That�s the weakest rate of growth for Canadian home prices since 1980 and far below the seven per cent annual price gain seen over the last 10 years.

The bank says new, tighter rules for borrowers and lenders are only part of the reason for the moderating prices.

Other contributing factors include the aging population, modest growth in population and the economy and, eventually, higher interest rates.

http://www.theprovince.com/life/Canadian+house+prices+remain+flat+decade+says/8079034/story.html

But of course real estate agents have a much better idea of what's going on in the housing market than the banks do :rolleyes:

# ? Mar 11, 2013 17:39

etalian: Mar 20, 2006

dethslayer666 posted:

But of course real estate agents have a much better idea of what's going on in the housing market than the banks do

It's a reputable occupation similar to used car salesmen.

# ? Mar 11, 2013 23:23

Baronjutter: Dec 31, 2007; "Tiny Trains"

Cultural Imperial posted:

I get this all the time in Vancouver. People here can't seem to fathom that cities like Vancouver and Victoria are economic backwaters that have no business hovering at the cost of living levels that they do.

Someone hasn't had "BEST PLACE ON EARTH" drilled into your head enough. Don't you remember the Olympics? We're on the world's stage now, we're on the map, we're an alpha city like London or Tokyo! In fact they're going to have to invent some new tier for Vancouver because it's just so loving off the charts amazing. You think this is a bubble? Look at those mountains and tell me it's a bubble. Look at these CHINESE INVESTORS and tell me it's a bubble. Yeah thought so.

# ? Mar 11, 2013 23:33

Dr. Witherbone: Nov 1, 2010; CHEESE LOOKS ON IN
DESPAIR BUT ALSO WITH
AN ERECTION

So, this just came up on CBC.

A 16% drop in house sales, with only a one percent drop in housing prices. I don't know much about real estate or market crashes, but isn't a 16% drop in demand enough for a bigger reflection in prices?

I mean, is this just realtors burying their heads in the sand and insisting that things will get better? Also, :lol:

at the CREA insisting that if you ignore Vancouver then everything is peachy. Even I know that's ridiculous. Ignore part of the market and the overall market is better!!!!!! :downs:

# ? Mar 15, 2013 18:08

Lain Iwakura: Aug 5, 2004; The body exists only to verify one's own existence.; Taco Defender

Dr. Witherbone posted:

So, this just came up on CBC.

A 16% drop in house sales, with only a one percent drop in housing prices. I don't know much about real estate or market crashes, but isn't a 16% drop in demand enough for a bigger reflection in prices?

I mean, is this just realtors burying their heads in the sand and insisting that things will get better? Also, at the CREA insisting that if you ignore Vancouver then everything is peachy. Even I know that's ridiculous. Ignore part of the market and the overall market is better!!!!!!

I don't think it's atypical. Here's a graph for comparison for the United Kingdom:

Housing prices were still rising a bit and then plateaued briefly while sales were dropping.

Lain Iwakura fucked around with this message at 18:30 on Mar 15, 2013

# ? Mar 15, 2013 18:28

Shifty Pony: Dec 28, 2004; Up ta somethin'

Dr. Witherbone posted:

So, this just came up on CBC.

A 16% drop in house sales, with only a one percent drop in housing prices. I don't know much about real estate or market crashes, but isn't a 16% drop in demand enough for a bigger reflection in prices?

I mean, is this just realtors burying their heads in the sand and insisting that things will get better? Also, at the CREA insisting that if you ignore Vancouver then everything is peachy. Even I know that's ridiculous. Ignore part of the market and the overall market is better!!!!!!

There are places in the US were people still refuse to properly list their houses at prices they will actually sell at because they have a certain value which they just know the house is worth and it is hard to shake that. Give it a few months until the investors who were counting on flipping the property quickly slash prices to pay off loans before the interest payments bankrupt them. Then it will become a race for the exits with the realtors screaming about how "Now is the time to buy!" and more than a few saps suckered into attempting to catch a falling knife.

# ? Mar 15, 2013 18:41

Kafka Esq.: Jan 1, 2005; "If you ever even think about calling me anything but 'The Crab' I will go so fucking crab on your ass you won't even see what crab'd your crab" -The Crab(TM)

edit: wrong thread...

Kafka Esq. fucked around with this message at 19:18 on Mar 15, 2013

# ? Mar 15, 2013 18:54

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# ? Apr 26, 2024 14:58

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

quote:

The flicker of optimism that sparked in Canada�s housing market when January sales outpaced December�s has died out, erased by a notable drop in February.
Last month�s declines were significant enough to prompt the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) to cut its sales outlook for 2013 on Friday for the third time since last summer. �
�Vancouver remains the clear weak spot, with sales down a seasonally adjusted 9.8 per cent in February and 29.2 per cent in the past year,� Bank of Montreal economist Robert Kavcic wrote in a research note.But some feel that much of Vancouver�s weakness has played out.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/housing/crea-cuts-forecast-as-home-sales-plunge-in-february/article9812647/

I wonder how many of these bank economists are cutters.

# ? Mar 18, 2013 02:55

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > Canada Housing/Debt: Trust me, I'm a landlord.

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