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but won't that mean if the government bails the banks out legislatively, it'll be the taxpayer paying anyway? Six of one half a dozen of the other? Weren't the US sub-prime mortgages securitized as well?
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Jun 5, 2014 02:02
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Vancouver is finally taking another half-assed step towards preventing heritage demolitions, but only in one neighbourhood
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Jun 5, 2014 03:55
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peter banana posted:but won't that mean if the government bails the banks out legislatively, it'll be the taxpayer paying anyway? Six of one half a dozen of the other? Weren't the US sub-prime mortgages securitized as well? A legislative bail-out is what happens when losses blow through all the other protections which in the case of housing would mean we're getting tagged anyways. Either way it's a long tail event and or market is structurally more healthy in spite of individual debt levels being high and prices being offensive in a few key markets. Also for context, prices are not that crazy anywhere other than Toronto, Vancouver and the Midwest oil towns. My parents' house for example is up maaaaybe 5% from when they bought it 10 years ago. I often wonder how much of the price distortion is a relative thing rather than a systemic one. The relatively higher velocity of home sales per capita (I don't have data but anecdotally it makes sense) in the dense markets also mean that they will dominate sales and value stats.
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Jun 5, 2014 04:08
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Rime posted:Vancouver is finally taking another half-assed step towards preventing heritage demolitions, but only in one neighbourhood 
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Jun 5, 2014 04:08
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Kalenn Istarion posted:A legislative bail-out is what happens when losses blow through all the other protections which in the case of housing would mean we're getting tagged anyways. Either way it's a long tail event and or market is structurally more healthy in spite of individual debt levels being high and prices being offensive in a few key markets. For the social sciences malcolm gladwell potheads, there's probably some sort of middle class social status grasping poo poo going on in Vancouver and Toronto as well. It's seriously ridiculous the lengths people go to compete in social status with each other in Vancouver.
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Jun 5, 2014 04:10
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Kalenn Istarion posted:Also for context, prices are not that crazy anywhere other than Toronto, Vancouver and the Midwest oil towns. My parents' house for example is up maaaaybe 5% from when they bought it 10 years ago. I often wonder how much of the price distortion is a relative thing rather than a systemic one. The relatively higher velocity of home sales per capita (I don't have data but anecdotally it makes sense) in the dense markets also mean that they will dominate sales and value stats. The entire province of BC has been inflated to Vancouver levels as of 2014, browse MLS some time.
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Jun 5, 2014 04:17
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Rime posted:The entire province of BC has been inflated to Vancouver levels as of 2014, browse MLS some time. You have to remember Rime, the rest of BC doesn`t exist .
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Jun 5, 2014 04:25
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hahahahahaha http://beta.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?PropertyId=14104639
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Jun 5, 2014 04:26
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You could but a nice 2 bedroom somewhere near buckingham palace for this much. http://beta.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?PropertyId=14108766
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Jun 5, 2014 04:30
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neither of those properties are what I think of when it comes to 'retardly overpriced places for human beings to actually live in', they are ski chalets
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Jun 5, 2014 04:33
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Azerban posted:neither of those properties are what I think of when it comes to 'retardly overpriced places for human beings to actually live in', they are ski chalets I swear I do all the loving work for you people. http://beta.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?PropertyId=13560196 http://beta.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?PropertyId=14101131 http://beta.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?PropertyId=14369799 http://beta.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?PropertyId=14252276 http://beta.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?PropertyId=14035220
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Jun 5, 2014 04:44
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hahaha fort st john hahahahaha
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Jun 5, 2014 04:48
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Rime posted:I swear I do all the loving work for you people. I didn't look in a lot of detail, but the two I clicked on looked more like something that would compare to a cottage in the Muskokas in Ontario. Not sure that's a representative sample, but I get that you're trying to make a point. You'll find stuff priced like that dotted all over the lake country 2-4 hours from Toronto. But if you look at the kinds of places the locals mostly live in, they're much more reasonable.
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Jun 5, 2014 04:55
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Here's some more: http://beta.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?PropertyId=13653335 http://beta.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?PropertyId=13861804 - this one has a bowling alley on the bottom floor, and is in Silverstar village, which has exactly zero amenities, because I refuse to call the grocery store that's smaller than most downtown Vancouver Mac's stores and double the price a real place. http://beta.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?PropertyId=13171593 http://beta.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?PropertyId=14119968
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Jun 5, 2014 04:56
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Kalenn Istarion posted:I didn't look in a lot of detail, but the two I clicked on looked more like something that would compare to a cottage in the Muskokas in Ontario. Not sure that's a representative sample, but I get that you're trying to make a point. You've obviously never been to BC if you think Fort St John, Charlie Lake or Courtneay are in any way comparable to Muskoka. The first two are more like a 10 hour drive from Vancouver, and Courtneay is basically an air force base city three hours north of Victoria.
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Jun 5, 2014 04:58
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Let's make this even better, how about half a million for a townhouse in Salmon Arm: http://beta.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?PropertyId=14278288 http://beta.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?PropertyId=14215023 Guess what the economy of Salmon Arm is? Old People. But wait, those are "luxury" condo's, they don't count! Fine, have a hippy rape shack in a dying mill town which is totally inaccessible except by boat, only $685,000!: http://beta.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?PropertyId=14119903 Oh, sure, affordable real estate exists of course. Here's a nice little renovated miners shack, in a literal ghost town, surrounded by toxic mine waste, and which is completely inaccessible for 5 months of the year by any means. Only $160,000, it's a steal! http://www.lillooetrealestatesales.info/2013/05/17/25-whiting-avenue/
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Jun 5, 2014 05:03
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HookShot posted:You've obviously never been to BC if you think Fort St John, Charlie Lake or Courtneay are in any way comparable to Muskoka.  I live in Vancouver, but have only been here for 2 years and don't leave the GVA  I did not look them up on a map Those prices are stupid This province is stupid
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Jun 5, 2014 05:15
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This province is loving dumb
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Jun 5, 2014 06:15
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HookShot posted:You've obviously never been to BC if you think Fort St John, Charlie Lake or Courtneay are in any way comparable to Muskoka. Closer to 15 hours, and 8 hours NW from Edmonton. Fracking, LNG pipeline something something $900k house. I certainly hope that resource doesn't bust on whomever is holding that mortgage. The province just doesn't make sense. Like you literally cannot move to a shithole far enough from Vancouver to not be paying the premium for living in Vancouver. Alternate theory: Holy poo poo! Vancouver is dirty cheap compared to the rest of the province. (I wonder how long until that ends up in a VREB press release like that one telling us to move to Detroit if we don't like it.)
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Jun 5, 2014 06:46
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ocrumsprug posted:Closer to 15 hours, and 8 hours NW from Edmonton.
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Jun 5, 2014 06:51
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Not that other provinces aren't equally hosed: like how Whitehorse has a 0% vacancy rate for rentals, and instead of browsing for suites you post a profile to the classifieds and the landlords contact you if they like you. Whitehorse is a government office economy with a pop of 30k  BC is just the canary for how much bad must be lurking across the country, due to how surreal it's become here.Ocrumsprug has summarized it perfectly.
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Jun 5, 2014 07:19
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Are Canadian mortgages recourse or non-recourse?
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Jun 5, 2014 08:24
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LemonDrizzle posted:Are Canadian mortgages recourse or non-recourse? Recourse, with very few exceptions.
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Jun 5, 2014 08:28
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LemonDrizzle posted:Are Canadian mortgages recourse or non-recourse? Note that the American experience shows that the presence or absence of this rule essentially doesn't matter.
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Jun 5, 2014 13:12
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Saying Canadian banks are safe from this coming shitstorm is wildly optimistic, bordering on dumb. American banks had Fannie and Freddy, securitized huge swaths of their debt, and yet Washington Mutual and others still ceased to exist. Not understanding procyclical demand seems to be a key hallmark of a bubble denier. Canadians can vastly increase their personal debt levels to the tune of hundreds of billions of dollars, but our five loving banks somehow won't have business interest in ANY of that debt?
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Jun 5, 2014 15:20
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Rime posted:I swear I do all the loving work for you people. Surely places like these in these locations don't actually sell at those prices? How is it possible that a market exists for this?
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Jun 5, 2014 16:03
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Lexicon posted:Surely places like these in these locations don't actually sell at those prices? How is it possible that a market exists for this? I know a rich guy who just spent millions of dollars on a house in Grand Prairie because he wanted a big, luxurious house, and he had to move there for family reasons. Just because it's not our cup of tea, doesn't mean there's absolutely no market for it. I'd say the high end market is probably slightly healthier than the mid-range, because there's less supply, and people at the high end can afford to pay for that kind of thing in cash if they have the whim to do so.
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Jun 5, 2014 16:07
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PT6A posted:I know a rich guy who just spent millions of dollars on a house in Grand Prairie because he wanted a big, luxurious house, and he had to move there for family reasons. Just because it's not our cup of tea, doesn't mean there's absolutely no market for it. I'd say the high end market is probably slightly healthier than the mid-range, because there's less supply, and people at the high end can afford to pay for that kind of thing in cash if they have the whim to do so. You have a smaller market of potential buyers when you do sell, however.
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Jun 5, 2014 16:17
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FrozenVent posted:You have a smaller market of potential buyers when you do sell, however. This is also true. However, when you're actually filthy rich and not just pretending, it's never so urgent to sell a house. Oh well, you have X million tied up in a house. I guess you'll have to restrict yourself to spending only the remaining 5X million until it sells.
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Jun 5, 2014 16:24
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PT6A posted:I know a rich guy who just spent millions of dollars on a house in Grand Prairie because he wanted a big, luxurious house, and he had to move there for family reasons. Just because it's not our cup of tea, doesn't mean there's absolutely no market for it. I'd say the high end market is probably slightly healthier than the mid-range, because there's less supply, and people at the high end can afford to pay for that kind of thing in cash if they have the whim to do so. Yeah, fair point. That certainly makes sense with regards to real estate on places like Hornby Island. I have a harder time understanding ultra expensive real estate in buttfuck-nowhere places like Fort St John or Cranbrook or whatever. You couldn't pay me to live in one of those places - which perhaps explains my strong befuddlement at why anyone would or could drop $2M on a crass mini-mansion there.
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Jun 5, 2014 16:31
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Lexicon posted:Surely places like these in these locations don't actually sell at those prices? How is it possible that a market exists for this? This is tough to really say. Even in Vancouver where people are actually buying at prices like that, you see people overreach. The 1.5 M sub-penthouses and the 32M virtual Versailles show that. However, what is the real price of a house in Fort St. John or Lilloet? Is it 70% of those prices? 50%? 10%? These are places where a full time resource sector job would be ~3 months a years, and EI the rest. And that was before the pine beetle destroyed the logging industry, when they were still thriving* communities. Maybe oil&gas is distorting the Peace River region more than most. But Osoyoos? Lilloet? These are the small towns that cannot even support doctor clinics. * for different values of thriving ocrumsprug fucked around with this message at 16:45 on Jun 5, 2014 |
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Jun 5, 2014 16:42
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Lexicon posted:Yeah, fair point. That certainly makes sense with regards to real estate on places like Hornby Island. If you live somewhere nice you probably spend a lot more time outside of your house actually doing things. The city its self becomes part of your living room or backyard. If I was stuck way the gently caress out in some lovely nowhere town I'd probably want a big house because that's where I'm going to be trapped. In Victoria I'm fine with a little 890 sqft 2br. If I was live in buttfuck-nowhere such a place would probably feel like a prison. I'd want a bigger house with a yard and everything so I could fill my life with more "house hobbies" and activities. Baronjutter fucked around with this message at 17:08 on Jun 5, 2014 |
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Jun 5, 2014 17:05
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Every time I see a "1 acre estate" that's a giant rear end house surrounded by an acre of grass and nothing else I die a little on the inside, especially since that was once farmland.
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Jun 5, 2014 17:09
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ocrumsprug posted:
Lexicon posted:Surely places like these in these locations don't actually sell at those prices? How is it possible that a market exists for this? That's why I say that the provincial real estate market has lost touch with reality and is full-bubble everywhere. Vancouver, sure, there's arguments to be made about why poo poo is so expensive here. Lilloet? Bella Coola? There's no reason for a house to be equitably as expensive as Vancouver there, other than that the market baseline province wide is so vastly inflated that owners can get away with charging whatever they want. It's a mental thing. It's no cheaper anywhere else in the province, so you'll pay close to what they're asking or you're just plain SOL. Inversely, everyone else is charging usurious prices so it would just be stupid to charge less than them, regardless of whatever shitbox you're selling! It's no longer localized to the lower mainland, it's everywhere.
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Jun 5, 2014 17:23
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Lexicon posted:Note that the American experience shows that the presence or absence of this rule essentially doesn't matter. What do you mean by this? That the American experience just resulted in people declaring BK to get out of any deficiencies?
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Jun 5, 2014 17:43
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mastershakeman posted:What do you mean by this? That the American experience just resulted in people declaring BK to get out of any deficiencies? California is non-recourse; Florida is recourse - both got pretty badly hosed by the collapse of the American housing bubble. Obviously it's a nuanced issue, but my point is simply that looking to recourse-ness as a predictor for bubble survivability is foolish (many Canadian housing-pumping pundits do this - "oh we have recourse, so it's different here").
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Jun 5, 2014 18:02
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mastershakeman posted:What do you mean by this? That the American experience just resulted in people declaring BK to get out of any deficiencies? Most loans in the US are non-recourse, meaning that the loan is secured solely against the asset securing the property, i.e. the house. If the borrower defaults, the lender is limited to foreclosure on the property to recover their money. Hence, many people didn't declare bankruptcy, but simply walked away from the property and left the bank holding the bag. While they'll probably never get a loan again, they're also not liable for the huge negative equity on the property. In Canada, all debt is recourse debt, including mortgages. Even if you walk away from your property and the bank forecloses, you're still liable for the negative equity and they can garnish your wages, seize other assets, etc, to recover this money. Many banks in the US went tits up because people just simply tossed them the keys, and it helped speed the US consumers debt deleveraging and as a consequence, their recovery. Should the same thing happen here in Canada, there's no escaping the mortgage, even if the property is foreclosed on. This means in a real estate crash, people are going to be buried in debt for a great deal longer, and that means they're money is going to useless debt service rather than purchasing goods in the economy, which lowers aggregate demand and torpedoes a recovery.
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Jun 5, 2014 18:35
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It's worth noting that the same applies to student loan debt: completely unaffected by bankruptcy and your wages will be garnisheed after too long in arrears. I wonder what the outcome is going to be if we end up with vast swathes of our population drowning under hundreds of thousands of dollars in debt which they can never get rid of? 
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Jun 5, 2014 18:40
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Rime posted:It's worth noting that the same applies to student loan debt: completely unaffected by bankruptcy and your wages will be garnisheed after too long in arrears.  But preferably a change in government policy or something.
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Jun 5, 2014 18:52
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Rime posted:It's worth noting that the same applies to student loan debt: completely unaffected by bankruptcy and your wages will be garnisheed after too long in arrears. Huh? Mortgage debt can absolutely be discharged by bankruptcy in most places. The US is unusual in that a lot of its mortgages can be discharged without even needing to declare bankruptcy.
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Jun 5, 2014 18:56
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