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Lexicon posted:Anecdotes like that give me pause about ever thinking that we'll ever see the pre-2003 world again. That's a hell of a lot of the country whose interests are directly opposed to "housing is cheaper". As home ownership is slightly under 70% of the population you can bet that there are a lot of people that don't want 2003 house prices again. Luckily they cannot hold it back forever so their interests at some point become immaterial. ie. The American and Irish home owners probably weren't terribly keen on the last 5-6 year either.
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Aug 23, 2013 19:22
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Corrupt Cypher posted:Yeah, I've discussed this at length with my investor neighbour and that was the exact quote he used. drat Keynes. I have been watching that for a year now as a potential short. Luckily I haven't bothered as I would have lost my shirt on what should be a sure bet. Maybe it will be a sure bet over the next 6-12 months, or maybe things will remain irrational for a bit longer yet. I'm keeping my money off the table.
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Sep 6, 2013 16:51
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etalian posted:I'm curious in Canada is there a capital gain tax exemption for home sales similar to the USA? Yeah, you are exempt from capital gains tax on your primary residence, afaik. You are also exempt on the gains from where you lie about living until they catch you.
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Sep 9, 2013 00:09
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Lexicon posted:I don't often find myself on the same side as real estate developers, but a 100% jump in a 5-figure tax from one year to the next strikes me as a little odd. This is the kind of cost that should've been set in stone decades ago, and then adjusted for inflation. The city is just getting their cut of what recently has been much larger pie. Unfortunately they waited until the market is on the cusp of a return to normal so those fees will likely have the predicted serious downside. Not to say that the industry is deserving of any sympathy. v: Those fees are two or three years too late to actually redistribute the wealth. If developers are still getting the same margins during the next 5 years that they have been, then we are all doomed. ocrumsprug fucked around with this message at 18:34 on Sep 10, 2013 |
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Sep 10, 2013 18:24
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Lexicon posted:Should be done within the hour. Soliciting for titles... if nothing better it will be "The Canadian Finance and Investing thread - Paying More is our National Pastime" The Canadian Finance and Investing thread - Returns Less than Inflation, Guaranteed!
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Sep 13, 2013 03:09
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Cultural Imperial posted:SO MUCH FOR THE HOUSING BUST MOTHERFUCKERS That's a relief, I guess I can tell the wife we *can* buy a house afterall.
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Sep 18, 2013 03:45
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Cultural Imperial posted:Well there's no such thing as an unaffordable house purchase when interest rates are this low. Having been watching list prices decline in Vancouver for the past year from absurd to silly levels, I have instead chosen to believe that I am actually being paid to not buy a house. "Wow, you just dropped your ask price by double my families gross income. I certainly feel terrible for not buying a year ago now." Since society seems to forgive realtor math pretty easily, I am hoping I can get away with just pretending I got a 200% raise by not buying. I can then use this windfall to buy the G&M so they can tell me it isn't happening. It is sort of win-win if you think about it.
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Sep 18, 2013 17:08
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Rick Rickshaw posted:Hah, first time reading this thread. Just bought a house in Halifax this summer, and this thread may have convinced me not to. Canadian Housing Bubble Thread: Location Location Location I live in Vancouver so if I had the money to buy a house I would also have the money to move to the Caribbean and sit on a beach for the rest of my life.
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Sep 18, 2013 20:45
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Condo news out of TorontoThe Star posted:Mortgage brokers, realtors and developers have seen a surge the last few months in people who bought pre-construction condos two to three years ago “scrambling” to get financing to close deals. Coupled with the upcoming glut of condo supply in Toronto, things are probably about to get pretty ugly there.
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Oct 8, 2013 17:05
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Fine-able Offense posted:When somebody says "about 3-5%", it is pretty dumb to immediately run out and cite the best-case edge scenario (a well-built new condo) and then pick the highest number in the range (5% instead of 3%) and then say "wow, that's too high!!1!". I am really not looking forward to my next AGM as I expect the prevailing attitude will be to ignore the maintenance report and not increase the contingency budget. Not sure why they thought it was a good idea to make it optional, but it was a terrible idea. All the people crying about a 5% fee increase (less than a 1/3rd what was recommended) are certainly going to cry more when we have an assessment to cover some of what in on our report. I suspect that they don't intend to be here that long.
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Oct 14, 2013 08:15
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Cultural Imperial posted:Wynand, the obsession with Vancouver real estate was in full gear as far back as the 80s and 90s. Prices have gone through at least two bubbles and collapses. It's been mentioned in this thread but I encourage you to talk to some baby boomers about home ownership in the lower mainland on the 80s. Ask them what happened to their friends or themselves when the market collapsed. The most aggravating part of talking to peers about house prices is the "never goes down" mantra. I mean, I've seen two spectular bubble pops here and I am not that old. I remember house auctions for $1 not being successful in the 80s crash. I always wonder how high my friends were in the 80s and 90s. (I am guessing very since I noticed.)
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Oct 14, 2013 21:18
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Lexicon posted:Seriously? I was a kid, but I remember watching a news piece after the pop where houses up for auction went no bid (not even $1). That said, it was 30 years ago so there may have been good reasons to not want those houses at any price. It stuck with me though, so I find it pretty hilarious when people try to say the houses are always worth more.
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Oct 14, 2013 22:11
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LemonDrizzle posted:The entire justification is "people can't afford houses", with an implicit subtext of "...and house prices cannot ever be allowed to fall so that they come back into line with incomes". So instead of a correction in the market, we get a new and bigger bubble that will burst the instant interest rates rise from their current rock bottom levels. Well if you put it into the Canadian context, the government has allowed housing to become about 20% of GDP. (I am assuming that England's housing bubble has accomplished something similar.) If they take moves to put that to a more historical norm, the damage to the economy and social fabric would be immediate and severe. The only card they can play is to keep the bubble going, and hope that something comes along that can absorb that drop. It's magical thinking of course, and even if something comes along (like a new industry) it will probably just be the next bubble. (Ironically, the bubble makes the "something else" more unlikely as investment will all just flow into the bubble.) Politically however they are better off making a later bubble pop worse than forcing the current bubble to pop, since someone else will suffer for it.
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Oct 16, 2013 20:28
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^^^: "I'm a bit confused" is right...blah_blah posted:He's already factored in strata fees though -- you're saying that after owning for 10 years a reasonably likely outcome is that he's going to spend half the value of his property in repairs/maintenance on top of that? It is a ball park. However what Fineable is actually saying* is that no, your buddy can expect to not actually pay that, since it is unlikely that he is living in a properly maintained building. * apologies if I mischaracterized your point
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Oct 18, 2013 16:27
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HookShot posted:The funniest part of this is the assessment for literally any plot of land in the entire province is available online. All someone had to do at city council was look it up. Plus the municipal tax bill for that land, which is based on the assessment, is something that the city really should have access too.
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Oct 18, 2013 17:46
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Cultural Imperial posted:Interesting things in this case study: The sign of a quality financial adviser is when they recommend that you take out a loan that you can pay back just in time to retire at 65, instead of a plan that allows you take your 1.2 million and retire earlier (or now).
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Oct 18, 2013 19:09
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man thats gross posted:By year 11, annual out of pocket costs are even. So take that $80K down payment and $16K for closing costs, and to be generous, add an extra $5k for the difference renting would have saved you every year (even though the difference starts at $5K and tapers off until year 11), you're looking at $286K after 11 years, a net gain of $190K. That's about $40K better than where you'd be if you bought, but from that point forward, you're spending more money by renting. There are plenty of online spreadsheets available that you can use to find out if a particular property is better off as a purchase over renting. Just be realistic with the numbers you use. Hope that wasn't too grasping.
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Oct 20, 2013 01:07
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etalian posted:It's a nice infographic especially since it uses the assumption of a 35% down payment for the more expensive areas. Actually the thing I noticed was it knew exactly that 34.7% of the population makes at least $66,132. However what percentage makes at least $171,684... i dunno less than 32% or something.
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Oct 22, 2013 03:31
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Kafka Esq. posted:So what's the systemic risk we've built into the system? I can't imagine a rise of even one or two points on the interest rate not bringing payments on certain mortgages down, but what is the real problem now? The government is intent on keeping rates low. Banks finance their mortgage portfolio on the open bond market, and it is not pegged to the BoC rate. If bond rates increase, mortgages increase regardless of what the government intends. That is why mortgage rates have increased by ~1% while the BoC rate is still sitting at effectively zero.
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Oct 23, 2013 15:21
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Health Services posted:Well, this quote from the article is horrifying: Not to disparage public employees, but what exactly does a market analyst do for the CMHC anyways? Please, please, please let it be providing forecasting information to the finance department. And not as that quote sounds, shill for the real estate boards.
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Oct 23, 2013 23:47
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etalian posted:wasn't the rich foreigner driving up the market explanation shown to not line up with actual stats? Apparently the narrative that rich foreigners are purchasing everything with suitcases full of cash, shows some weaknesses when you see how much of their insurance cap the CHMC has dedicated to the west coast.
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Oct 24, 2013 17:57
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Cultural Imperial posted:Cmon. There are thousands of people across the country that fully expect housing to increase at 20% forever. I have no trouble believing that there are several cabinet ministers that are just as silly.
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Oct 30, 2013 05:30
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Cultural Imperial posted:The vampire squid speaks. Yeah, but this is countered by the BMO. Globe and Mail link B.C. housing in 'soft landing' posted:Bank of Montreal economists have taken British Columbia’s housing market off the critical care list. Whew, I am sure glad that housing
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Oct 30, 2013 20:41
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cowofwar posted:What the hell? Buyer's market in BC for last two years? Check your lower mainland privilege. There are great deals to be had in the Whistler hotel room market and "Oh God, someone please buy my house!" Kelowna. Fun fact: The foreclosure rate in Kelowna is about 1/day.
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Oct 30, 2013 21:57
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Cultural Imperial posted:maybe you're renting your investment property~ out to a whole bunch of mainland chinese students If that was your plan for a Kelowna investment property, it would explain why it was in foreclosure.
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Oct 31, 2013 00:13
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Fine-able Offense posted:Kelowna is awesome to visit for a weekend in the right time of year. Go on a winery tour and get schwasted like a gentleman, hit up an orchard on your way out of town for some jam. Having grown up there, this isn't far from the mark. I love the area but actually living there would be a surrender. It is a retirement community coming to grips with what the boomer bubble is going to do to retirees property values.
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Oct 31, 2013 03:31
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Cultural Imperial posted:you could hang out with madchild from famous rap group swollen members The place is still crowing about being the hometown of The Grapes of Wrath.
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Oct 31, 2013 04:00
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Lexicon posted:Do people really, actually believe that Kelowna is a place with bright future prospects, chiefly among them exponential growth in housing prices? As has been stated, the narrative in Kelowna is EVERYONE wants to retire there. Now a lot of people do, so it's believable but the reality is not going to save the place. And no offense taken. There are only two things to do there. Be a student, or be retired and it is decent at both. I believe the leading industry is building strip malls so you can imagine what the job market is like.
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Oct 31, 2013 06:48
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Lexicon posted:Interesting. I did not know that. When my partner feels like making herself depressed, she takes a look at houses for sale in Portland. She then emails them to me to depress me. And like Seattle, Portland has some commerce and industries unrelated to condo tower construction.
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Oct 31, 2013 20:21
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Dusseldorf posted:I haven't spent too much time in Vancouver but doesn't it only have a bare skeleton of a public transit system? Yes, and it seems to get barer and barer every year. In ten years, transit service to my neighbourhood has been cut twice and is now half (less since it is now minibuses on the weekend as well) what it was when I moved in. It is going to push me back into the city proper eventually. I have no idea how the people living in the actual burbs deal with it.
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Oct 31, 2013 21:22
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Eej posted:No one's retiring to the Okanagan to enjoy the Penticton Vineyards, ok. Meth labs maybe. The one saving grace of being from Kelowna is that you are not from Penticton (Shelbyville) or Vernon (Ogdenville). Also Naramata is not Penticton, even if it really looks like it should be. On topic: Is the south Okanagan months of inventory numbers as bad as I have heard (~36 months)? On the surface that seems crazy, but I am inclined to not discount it.
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Oct 31, 2013 22:41
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Paper Mac posted:Some of these numbers are insane. 6 billion in cash was brought into the US in 2012 by mainlanders to buy real estate. In cash. I was especially surprised by this: "Canada keeps no hard data about foreign investors in real estate, but Chinese buyers in one year outnumbered local buyers in Vancouver by a three to one margin." - I thought the HAM story had been discredited? Well, no numbers exist. Except for this very specific number I use in the second half of the sentence.
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Nov 6, 2013 19:59
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LemonDrizzle posted:How do you short a housing market? I think the theory is you short the retail/wholesale construction material vendors, the mortgage insurance companies and the mortgage companies. I believe most of the companies that directly build are private, but a number of their lenders or supplies are probably shortable. Home Capital Group (HCG) is one financing company that gets mentioned that will be particularly vulnerable to a housing correction and should be shorted if you think a market correction is coming. It's stock has increased by ~45% since July though, so good luck with that. Something, something, something about market irrationality outlasting your solvency, something...
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Nov 11, 2013 01:19
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Cultural Imperial posted:Would they really? It isn't all with the CMHC as there are private insurers in the mortgage business too. The government just gave a large loan guarantee to one of them last year.  The problem with the banks would potentially arise in the case that loan defaults started to happen and the banks got asked for their documentation. All of the liar loans that got made could get their insurance invalidated. (Thoough I cannot imagine the government letting the banks suffer too much.) ocrumsprug fucked around with this message at 19:16 on Nov 11, 2013 |
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Nov 11, 2013 08:23
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Fitch Rating report that Canadian housing is 21% overvaluedcbc posted:Sky high prices in the Canadian real estate market won't be climbing for much longer, says a report by global rating agency Fitch Ratings. With the recent CREA release that Canadian home values are on average 390K, the wealth evaporation is going to be staggering. And in the specific areas that are skewed significantly above the average, it is going to be horrible to live through.
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Nov 19, 2013 23:18
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etalian posted:Doesn't the level sort of prevent a soft landing once people go into panic mode and also start getting nice HELOC letters from their bank? Well soft landing would be achieved if earnings caught up with housing. However that is almost laughably unlikely, and even if it did happen I think it would just spur additional rounds of house price escalations. If the bank is willing to lend me a million now for grandma's Vancouver special, imagine what they would lend me if there were actual wage increases. I cannot even see how the economy doesn't take a dump if housing just stagnates as I suspect HELOCs are driving a lot of consumer activity.
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Nov 22, 2013 02:04
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etalian posted:Also did anyone watch the CBC condo documentary on the GTA condo boom? I watched it last night, and got much happier that I don't own a condo in the GTA. Aside from the bubble implications though, the realization of how little influence the city has in its own city planning should terrify everyone.
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Nov 22, 2013 16:08
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etalian posted:Yeah it's the other nature of the problem since due to a lack of good oversight from city government you have lots of problems such as buildings sneaking by with shoddy quality materials/workmanship and also the bigger problem in which the lack of good central planning will lead to future traffic jams/isolated poorly integrated condo developments. The leaky condo crisis in Vancouver was a slow motion disaster for a really long time, and cost some people their life savings. I think some people are still suffering from it too, or at least that is the assumption when I see green meshed scaffolding go up around a building. It was just a bunch of three story wood (mostly) frames, and it cost billions to fix. If a sizable percentage of those 50+ floor concrete hab blocks are shoddy, it is going to cost some big dollars to fix.
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Nov 22, 2013 22:32
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etalian posted:The documentary also made the point that Vancouver already had a painful condo boom and bust cycle back in the 80s. Yeah, basically there was a housing boom in Vancouver in the 80's and the result of it was a whole lot of bankrupt home owners, and 5-15 years later having your condo rot out from underneath you. I think it has been mostly cleaned up now, but it took 20 years and the government needed to front a lot of interest free loans to stratas to do it. In not shocking news, none of the developers will be available to fix or get sued for the upcoming Toronto housing problems.
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Nov 22, 2013 22:51
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| # ¿ May 10, 2024 03:39 |
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PC LOAD LETTER posted:The guy just posted an article where Krugman gives Summers accolades for (and says he has advocated the same for a while) pushing for more economic bubbles as a financial cure all for our macroeconomic ills, what more could you possibly want? I read the article a got more of a "it appears to be the case" vibe than any strong argument that it was desirable.
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Nov 30, 2013 10:35
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