|
Baronjutter posted:7% eh? DeutscheBank thinks 60%. Bit of a difference of opinion. Even 7% would be enough to sink some people in my circle. There's no pretending anymore.
|
#
¿
Dec 19, 2013 06:19
|
|
|
|
| # ¿ Jun 2, 2024 05:46 |
|
|
EvilJoven posted:gently caress it, I'm buying a house. It is starting to look like this, yes
|
|
#
¿
Mar 27, 2014 21:26
|
|
|
Some anecdotes: I work with a lot of people in the 80 to 100k a year salary range, and a very small minority, maybe 1 in 20, does not own either a condo or a house. Of those owning houses, they tend to be in their mid 30s or older, with many owning multiple "investment" properties, some preconstruction, some rented. The older the person is, the more likely he is to own multiple properties. People in their 20s to early 30s tend to own condos, and again, later 20s tend to own multiple condos or a condo (investment/rental) and a house as a primary residence. Married people tend to own houses, while single people tend to own condos. And the plural is intended. Those not already owning multiple properties seem to be interested in buying preconstructions. No one I ask would be willing to buy a residence for what their own assessed value is (granted, I've only asked like four people this). And dear lord do they eat up the "there is no bubble" news stories. People react with hostility to any suggestion otherwise, so now I just nod and praise their financial prudence, as is expected. Some days it makes me feel a bit sick to my stomach, as something is definitely, seriously wrong, but there is nothing to be done. I don't particularly want or need property at this point in my life, as I move around a lot, but I'm sick of being talked down to about my decision not to buy. I could definitely afford to, however, it would wipe out my savings and mess up my actual investments. I wish people would just loving shut up about houses, I guess. I don't work in real estate and I do not prompt these conversations. Wasting fucked around with this message at 01:30 on Mar 28, 2014 |
|
#
¿
Mar 28, 2014 01:27
|
|
|
Cultural Imperial posted:I love these anecdotes. What sort of jobs do these people have? Are they university educated? Transport, tradesmen on contract. Some are, though it is more common with people in their 20s who changed careers after not finding work in their field.
|
|
#
¿
Mar 28, 2014 01:37
|
|
|
Cultural Imperial posted:This loving piece of poo poo Hungry Hungry Hippos: Mortgage Edition. For the seasoned investor.
|
|
#
¿
Mar 28, 2014 08:15
|
|
|
I'm sorry if I've missed it, but have you made an honest, thorough search for a better rental? I understand getting frustrated with moving, but it may be your best option. I use moves as a time to redo my budget and cull some of the crap I no longer need, so that at least the headache ends with simplicity.
|
|
#
¿
Mar 29, 2014 07:29
|
|
|
Amos Moses posted:I'm stuck behind a rock and hard place rental wise. Any private renter here will quickly give you the heave-ho from say a basement apartment if they have a friend who needs a place to rent It sounds like you really believe you have no better option than to buy. I'm not saying it's not true, but I'd encourage you to spend some time each day looking for rentals, even if it means retracing your steps occasionally.
|
|
#
¿
Mar 29, 2014 08:01
|
|
|
It's still ridiculous to praise someone for rolling back the very changes he enacted, years after the policy created a damaging misallocation in the market. I actually thought he was joking, but apparently when this all blows up it will be the current government's fault and no one else's.
|
|
#
¿
Apr 12, 2014 01:09
|
|
|
I love the language in the reports from those with vested interests: once you start noticing "soft," "cooling, " "gradual," "slow," "stable," and their variations, it seems both incredibly deliberate and desperate.
|
|
#
¿
Apr 16, 2014 16:43
|
|
|
I don't think he's necessarily incorrect. Some markets will crash, certainly, but others could remain a steady, stagnant hell unless mortgage rates rise and clear out all of the bad "investments."
|
|
#
¿
Apr 16, 2014 16:52
|
|
|
Baronjutter posted:Stuff This is more or less my take, barring some kind of crisis ala 2008 that gets people in a panic.
|
|
#
¿
Apr 16, 2014 17:16
|
|
|
I don't think it's mopey to take this view of our economy, w/r to FIRE in particular. Young people just need to get used to the idea of not owning lovely $600K bungalows and townhouses. That people get depressed about not owning these things is, somewhat ironically, at least partially responsible for their current valuations. I gave up on home ownership years ago - - not because I couldn't (or can't) afford it, but because I couldn't justify it at these prices. That so many people in worse financial positions *can* justify it is very interesting to me, and it says a lot about our cultural values. It's seriously not a terrible life to make okay money, have conservative, diversified investments (even if you don't have much to invest), rent, and enjoy cash flow / not servicing a pile of volatile debt.
|
|
#
¿
Apr 16, 2014 17:55
|
|
|
Anyone else have to sit through a "get in now or you'll never be able to" real estate pitch from family over Easter dinner? Things I learned: - Now is the best time to buy, because - you'll never be able to earn as fast as real estate values go up, and - prices will go up, forever. A well-meaning uncle was trying to talk me into buying a $350k condo (1 bedroom, tiny shitboxes) before I was priced out of the area, which, given the demographics, is absurd. It was really hard to stay diplomatic on this one, but I managed and said some non-committal things. He told me I'd be sorry in a few years if I didn't, because they'd be worth half a million. This was followed by a brief conversation about how much money everyone had made on their (unsold) houses, until finally the topic changed and I didn't have to fight the urge to start screaming incoherently and pulling my hair out. Wasting fucked around with this message at 21:56 on Apr 21, 2014 |
|
#
¿
Apr 21, 2014 21:53
|
|
|
It's demonstrative of how people tend to only see what they want to see. I'd love an American's take on our disaster-in-waiting.
Wasting fucked around with this message at 23:19 on Apr 21, 2014 |
|
#
¿
Apr 21, 2014 22:30
|
|
|
Lt. Shiny-sides posted:As an American who married into not one, but two mortgage clusterfucks, all I can say is that the market is only going to go up, up, up!!! Is there any different feeling to this Canadian brand of stupid? Our government seems to be tacitly supporting it through our CMHC. Another aspect is our realtor cartel and their "home price index," which is hard to defend as anything other than an attempt to obfuscate market data. If anyone is knowledgeable about the home price index (HPI), or has a head for math and wants to take a look at their method for calculating it, it would be interesting to learn more about. Googling "MLS HPI user guide" returns, as the first result, a pdf with their methodology and the equations used. I recall reading that MLS has been caught revising year to year data to inflate sales data further. Wasting fucked around with this message at 01:53 on Apr 22, 2014 |
|
#
¿
Apr 22, 2014 01:42
|
|
|
It's nice to hear that I am not perhaps the insane one, but it doesn't make me feel much better, because the other option is that the people I care about most have lost their minds. I just wish there were a way to unfuck our economy without hurting a bunch of low-info people who committed the crime of responding in a way the government either predicted and just didn't care much about, or was too incompetent to understand.
|
|
#
¿
Apr 24, 2014 14:48
|
|
|
Cultural Imperial posted:Well let's not absolve all these 'equity' builders from their own greed. After seeing the firestorm of hubris surrounding that NYT report on the "middle class," I'm feeling less generous.
|
|
#
¿
Apr 24, 2014 22:06
|
|
|
Lead out in cuffs posted:People are responding to that article with hubris? I thought the whole point of the article was to point out the hubris and warn of the house price and debt nemesis. Check out G&M, Huffpo, National Post if you feel like punishing yourself. I don't see the Star or CBC reporting on it, though.
|
|
#
¿
Apr 24, 2014 22:42
|
|
|
Lobok posted:Cheap housing a GO train ride away from Toronto. If you don't mind spending four hours a day on the train
|
|
#
¿
Apr 25, 2014 03:55
|
|
|
Cultural Imperial posted:Lets get one thing straight here. If mortgage rates weren't so cheap and lending standards weren't so lax, we would probably not have a bubble. Canada totally jumped the shark when The Best Financial Minister of All Time Jim Flaherty PBUH increased amortization to 40 years, greenlighted 5% down, and a host of other retarded nonsense in order to 'rescue' Canada from the 2008 implosion. There isn't anything else going on to drive this mania to ~*build EqUiTy*~. It's amazing how people ignore the effects of that 5% down, 40 year mortgage boost. RE was crashing in Canada, around the same time as the US, and Flaherty goosed the market.
|
|
#
¿
May 5, 2014 00:12
|
|
|
El Scotch posted:I just wanted to drop by to check if things have crashed yet? If it hasn't crashed yet, there is no bubble. That's the way this works, right?
|
|
#
¿
May 7, 2014 20:52
|
|
|
Historically low interest rates, government-insured mortgages, and lax lending standards have nothing to do with it. No, we're simply a cut above New York, London, Paris, and we're running out of land, in Canada. And this is what people actually believe.
|
|
#
¿
May 17, 2014 17:01
|
|
|
I would support this, so long as everyone affected had "I am a financially illiterate moron" permanently branded on their face.
|
|
#
¿
Jun 7, 2014 00:57
|
|
|
Rutibex posted:Combine with a guaranteed minimum income. Any important businesses that fail due to the transition are nationalized. Bam, done. You'd be providing a payout to the the richest 70%+ of the population. The people who would most need that money do not have mortgages. This is a stupid idea, and you are stupid for suggesting it.
|
|
#
¿
Jun 7, 2014 04:22
|
|
|
Rutibex posted:People that are currently renting would now own their property and no longer need to pay rent. It would also be an anti-payout to anyone that owned rental property or investments in mortgages. It's not perfect egalitarianism but it's a lot closer to it than we have now and would cause a lot less social disruption. I'll take back the stupid comment if you can provide a reasonable answer to ownership claims, in the case of someone renting from someone with a mortgage on their property (this is very common now, with condos and townhouses). Similarly, what about people renting from a rental agency?
|
|
#
¿
Jun 7, 2014 04:32
|
|
|
Rutibex posted:Its quite simple; ownership transfers to whoever the current resident is. In the case of apartment buildings/condos/town homes the ownership becomes a common co-operative with each resident having an equal share. So if someone were renting their house to three people, it would now become a cooperative between the owner and the three people it was rented to? I'm about as far left as you can get, but that's basically confiscating property, and it's completely unrealistic. I mean, you'd be rewarding people who didn't rent out the family house for whatever reason, with total ownership.
|
|
#
¿
Jun 7, 2014 04:44
|
|
|
Too far out there, for me. I'd rather see some people go bankrupt and some banks topple.
|
|
#
¿
Jun 7, 2014 05:38
|
|
|
Yeah guys, everything's fine. That's why we can't raise interest rates by 1% without destroying the country.
|
|
#
¿
Jun 12, 2014 19:42
|
|
|
peter banana posted:Could we conceivably have 100% mortgages before that happens? It seemed unlikely a few years ago, but I'm kind of thinking anything's possible now. We did and do, when you account for cash-back mortgages. The bank will lend you your downpayment. It's common. Wasting fucked around with this message at 16:08 on Jul 11, 2014 |
|
#
¿
Jul 11, 2014 16:06
|
|
|
Oh, thank goodness. We can finally get back to buying houses again, now that the market has cooled and had a soft landing.
|
|
#
¿
Jul 16, 2014 15:11
|
|
|
ZShakespeare posted:This entire thread is people bitching about who other people can afford to buy houses.... There is a real issue worth talking about here, but hey, why do that when we can bitch about people who don't have to rent? Yep, no dangerous asset bubble here. Just plain old jealousy and dumb renters. Just wait until valuations are 100% higher in five years - - that'll shut up all those envious renters at the IMF.
|
|
#
¿
Aug 5, 2014 04:46
|
|
|
If this is the same HPI created and cultivated by the CREA, the same real estate cartel who fight to keep housing data secret from consumers, that's why. Its stated purpose was to smooth the data (obscure evidence of a bubble). Nm I see this is "House" not "Home." Would be curious to see what your data is tracking, but I am phone posting. Conjecture, but increases in price could be offset by increases in starts of smaller houses (i. e., condos) at what are still too high prices. Wasting fucked around with this message at 00:47 on Aug 6, 2014 |
|
#
¿
Aug 6, 2014 00:32
|
|
|
Cultural Imperial posted:Hey guys cmhc economist said a thing I love that the CMHC version of the mythical soft landing still includes rising prices. "It's okay: prices will still go up forever."
|
|
#
¿
Aug 13, 2014 17:08
|
|
|
LemonDrizzle posted:An 'ideal' soft landing would have prices going up very slowly in nominal terms but declining in real terms and in relation to wages, so there's nothing really wrong with that comment. Considering their forecast increase is well above what people will be receiving as cost of living, that's really not the message they're going for here.
|
|
#
¿
Aug 13, 2014 17:32
|
|
|
Hey, a realtor! The answers to your questions are in this thread: no, there is nothing historically to suggest this is sustainable. The party inevitably stops somewhere, even if it takes a decade. Would someone be happy if they bought a year ago? Depends. A friend is currently renting a condo out at a loss and is pretty unhappy about it, but most people are financially illiterate and would feel secure in their wise investing strategy (everything leveraged into one asset that the rest of the world is warning us about, because it always goes up forever).
|
|
#
¿
Aug 21, 2014 12:48
|
|
|
Cultural Imperial posted:http://m.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/td-banks-outgoing-ceo-urges-tighter-canada-lending-rules/article20618548/?service=mobile It says a lot about the industry that he waited until he was "outgoing" to say this
|
|
#
¿
Sep 16, 2014 20:06
|
|
|
Baronjutter posted:haha seriously? "If you're not up to you eyeballs in housing debt you're a financial simpleton!" ??? For what it's worth, I think buying is a terrible idea right now, but if I were carrying a mortgage with a rock-bottom interest rate, I'd be putting my money to work somewhere other than accelerated mortgage payments. With inflation and rates how they've been (even with a modest increase), the main risk in housing isn't servicing debt but capital loss, I would think, i.e. a correction/crash.
|
|
#
¿
Oct 3, 2014 19:16
|
|
|
Lexicon posted:This is stunning, if true. I look around me in BC and I see a lot of what appears to be the trappings of success: nice cars, homes, vacations, etc. I find it very hard to internalize the reality that most of it is illusory, and built on lies and debt. It's a bit unclear. Average is kind of a bad metric as well, but there's still clearly something bad going on.
|
|
#
¿
Nov 23, 2014 05:22
|
|
|
Furnaceface posted:And while were on the topic of public transit and the GO train, theyre terrible and fewer people are using it, but we dont know how terrible or how many fewer because nobody properly tracks numbers. Major upgrades are coming down the pipe for the Barrie line. The system of train control on that line in particular is archaic (no signal system north of Aurora), but a modern one has been installed, just not wired together yet. That'll let them run more trains with fewer delays. Edit: Worth noting, your statistic of declining ridership appears to apply to Barrie Transit, not Go Transit in particular. The article also claims that ridership is increasing in recent times despite an overall decrease over a greater period. Wasting fucked around with this message at 01:44 on Jan 4, 2015 |
|
#
¿
Jan 4, 2015 01:41
|
|
|
|
| # ¿ Jun 2, 2024 05:46 |
|
|
ohgodwhat posted:So how do I short Canadian real estate? You guys have convinced me. Could probably do something with REITs and banks, though they are insulated through CMHC. Construction and home reno would go tits up, though you'd have to find Canadian companies.
|
|
#
¿
Jan 11, 2015 21:02
|
|