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All real estate is regional - it took until 2009 for Dallas home prices to stop rising, even though the rest of the country was free-falling for two years, and our prices are rising again. Then again we never had double-digit price growth so the bubble was much smaller here. I think that has something to do with both sprawl and a memory of the S&L crash that hit Dallas hard. Anyway you Canadians have my sympathies on your upcoming bubble pop; one can only hope it doesn't take the bubble in Canadian home improvement shows with it, elsewise what shall I watch?
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Feb 18, 2013 18:49
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I actually looked at immigrating (for giggles) and even between developed countries it is insanely difficult, unless you have a boatload of money to invest in starting a business. Even if you can prove a history of being employed with marketable skills (like software development) and have enough cash on hand (say 50,000) it doesn't matter - unless you have a job offer from a corporate sponsor you can't even apply. That goes for US to UK, Canada, etc. I think you can immigrate if you own shares or part of a business, but the required amounts differ... I'd be curious if shifting my 401k into Canadian shares would count. To come to the US with an investor visa requires like a million bucks or something, but much less if you are buying or starting a business.* It's easier to immigrate to Germany, as a US citizen you can even arrive first, then apply for permanent residency... you just need to pass a basic German language test. I'm not quite sure what the rationale is... you would think the major developed countries would allow free migration but I presume it has something to do with the awful US healthcare system and lack of safety net, meaning tons of poor or sick people would flee if they could. * Probably no incentive to change anything because rich people can immigrate freely simply by dumping a million bucks into a business, allowing them to skip all the rules and lines. This applies to the UK, Canada, various EU countries, and the USA. Simulated fucked around with this message at 22:46 on Feb 18, 2013 |
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Feb 18, 2013 22:44
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Houses are an investment; they aren't making any more land  I have no experience being a landlord but why not take out a 3/4 million loan and make the house into two apartments. I can make 300/month positive cash flow! Etc, etc. In a way they are correct... But the market can remain depressed for years and you can end up taking a massive bath, having it sit unoccupied, and so on for years until it recovers.
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Feb 22, 2013 07:23
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Mr. Wynand posted:Right, well, thanks, but I already get that sort of explanation around around my in-laws' christmas table. Sorry my answer was a bit glib, but there is an element of truth to it. Easy money enables people to buy bigger, better, or closer houses. That enables the current owners to move up a peg. The high home prices make previously unprofitable rentals into (sometimes barely) profitable ones. People pile on the bandwagon until the crash. Eventually terrain and/or commute times put an upper bound on the amount of developable land and redevelopment by tearing down houses to make condos/apartments takes place, evening out the supply. But apartments are not a perfect substitute for a house with a yard and other things like zoning restrictions, school districts, etc affect how much land can be redeveloped either from a legal perspective or a profitability perspective. Adjustments also take a lot of time, so inertia can be a big factor. I don't think you can find a real answer for exactly why these cycles get started, except the already known factors of easy money, limited supply, and irrational idiots. What we do know is the is a limited supply of people with enough income (or just enough easy money) to support the massive run up in prices and when the input of first-time buyers starts drying up the whole thing ripples up the chain and crashes the market. I suspect the trigger events tend to be some sector of the city's economy starts booming or investors buy houses at depressed prices to flip, but I've never seen any legit research on it, just economist's pet theories dressed up as such.
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Feb 22, 2013 19:50
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OSI bean dip posted:Didn't Texas suffer the least when the banks started to implode? I seem to recall that their laws allowed them to weather the storm far better than the rest of the states save for one of the Dakotas. It doesn't explain Florida though. Texas (and Dallas specifically) got hit really hard during the S&L crisis in the 80s, so a lot of our home equity line of credit, second mortgage, and lending standards are still based around not having people dig themselves into a hole. There were also people with memory of the crash; Dallas didn't build a new skyscraper from the time of the crash until the 2000s. There is also still plenty of land for suburban sprawl, and if you want to live somewhere with a mass transit system *and* at least some culture this is your only option outside of the coasts/Chicago. Granted - it doesn't compare to places like NYC, but people in Texas always say Dallas looks to New York and LA in an aspirational; they often mean it negatively but for the people looking for cheap housing or companies looking to move headquarters it's a huge plus. So the short version is just like politics, all realestate is local. Simulated fucked around with this message at 23:03 on Feb 24, 2013 |
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Feb 24, 2013 21:31
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