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Mantle
May 15, 2004

My favourite comment on the budget I've seen so far:

quote:

Selling your couch to balance the household books is crackhead logic.

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Mantle
May 15, 2004


http://www.cbc.ca/1.3041628#vf-8736700001505

Mantle
May 15, 2004

Ccs posted:

So Target is leaving/has left Canada, but apparently is testing the legal system as they leave.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/04/22/realestate/commercial/targets-hasty-exit-from-canada-leaves-anger-behind.html


Apparently a bunch of other retailers have also left recently. What's going on? Did Wal Mart just conquer all their market or are there just not enough people and buying going on to justify all these giant chain stores in Canada?

I think Canadian consumers are too tapped out on mortgages to have any type of consumer spending. Also Target sucked here, empty shelves and limited selection of products compared to the States.

Future Shop was definitely on the way out as well up against online buying. Weak consumer spending was just the kick in the butt needed to push it over the edge.

Mantle
May 15, 2004

PT6A posted:

No 1? That's normal, I don't think I've seen a building with a 1-floor, although units on the ground floor begin with 1.

In Hong Kong buildings are normally Ground Floor, 1st floor, 2nd floor, etc. I think it's a British thing.

Mantle
May 15, 2004

Cultural Imperial posted:

Let the market decide

Yeah. I don't see the public policy issue here requiring regulation.

Mantle
May 15, 2004


Hmmm doesn't sound like foreign buyers or sellers to me...

Mantle
May 15, 2004

Baronjutter posted:

He also has a private lane behind him that constantly floods his property and garage but it's all doctors and lawyers

Does he live in Uplands? I have a friend that used to live there and he had stories about about his rich doctor and lawyer neighbours being assholes and complaining that my friend was actually talking to the tradespeople he hired and treating them like humans.

Literally complaining that my friend was talking to them at all, rather than pretending they were invisible.

Mantle
May 15, 2004

Femtosecond posted:

as boomers stop driving due to age.

Is this really going to happen? In my family we cannot stop our grandparents from driving and they refuse to learn to use public transport. We had to "forget" to renew my grandpa's insurance when it lapsed during a period he was incapacitated in order to get him to stop.

Similarly my grandma (89) has told me her plan to stop driving is when the government stops allowing her to drive. I hope that event isn't due to her running over someone like me riding a bike.

Mantle
May 15, 2004

ocrumsprug posted:

That was likely the exodus of people from Hong Kong before the handover to China.

I'm not convinced. Then why don't you see the increase happen all the way to 97? And why didn't the increase keep going with the wave of Taiwanese investor immigration in the late 90s and early 2000s?

Mantle
May 15, 2004

Jumpingmanjim posted:

How do people ITT feel about their job security in the event of a crash?

Not too worried, and even if I did worry, I wouldn't change my savings behaviour.

Also I have a backup plan to join the army

Mantle
May 15, 2004

It's probably more like 500% return because they probably leveraged the gently caress out of it.

Mantle
May 15, 2004

the talent deficit posted:

it's pretty close except sometimes (when it's not a weekend, gently caress those crowds) i get off the ferry bus at ladner exchange to go visit my parents. sometimes i'm the only person on the bus! it's like the world's biggest limo

If a two door, RR drivetrain car with 1000hp isn't a supercar, I don't know what is!

Mantle
May 15, 2004

I just moved from Victoria. The reason Foo is having trouble is because he charges $8.00 for a Viet pork belly sub.

Mantle
May 15, 2004

jm20 posted:

FYI 4 grand net is something like 70k salary wise so I'm not sure how you think it's a ton of money.

Because earning 4k per month is not the same as spending 4k per month on consumption

Mantle
May 15, 2004

Or just crazy boomers with access to cheap debt. Like my mom at age 64 on pension who sold her house for $800,000 to buy out her siblings from their childhood home and is borrowing $400,000 to renovate it.

I asked her directly how she plans to pay the money back and she sidestepped the question with "I think I can afford it."

I don't see this attitude as any different from a boomer selling their $800,000 house to buy a $1.2m house with $400k debt at age 64. They are just loving nuts. Oh and "I think it is the Chinese driving up prices"

Mantle fucked around with this message at 19:54 on Aug 13, 2015

Mantle
May 15, 2004

Cultural Imperial posted:

S&P500 is tanking. Also, WTI is very close to breaking $40.

:gizz:

I missed out on buying in 2009 because I was unemployed so I'm looking forward to buying the gently caress out of this recession!

Mantle
May 15, 2004

No wonder this circuit failed. It says "Made in Japan".

-- Doc Brown

Mantle
May 15, 2004

Based on this thread I tried to make small talk with my neighbour this morning in the elevator. He gave me a weird look and rushed out the elevator as fast as he could.

Mantle
May 15, 2004

large hands posted:

don't pass on the right

Don't open doors without looking

Mantle
May 15, 2004

Where is the control on that data? How do we know the previous owners were not rich white cash buyers with housewives on title?

Mantle
May 15, 2004

Cross posting from the BWM thread:

reddit posted:

My wife and I bought into the market in Edmonton two months before it leveled off back in around 2008 and then it started to fall. Unfortuantely we bought our condo at 249,900 and right now it's worth about 210,000. If we sell it now we might break even, but it's hard to keep an eye on it from all the way out in Vancouver.

So yes I wish we had waited. And I wish we hadn't bought a condo.


I asked how one could break even by buying at $249k and selling at $210k and got this response:

quote:

Not sure if sarcastic. There is no /s. Break even as in the mortgage is paid down to be at 210, so if he sold it, he would get the remaining for the mortgage. No profit, and an "invisible loss", yet he wouldn't continue to pay the mortgage after, so not a "real loss".

Since when does "break even" mean taking a capital loss of $39k, 7 years of mortgage interest payments, property tax, strata fees, sales commission, and opportunity cost on the down payment? So that's not a "real loss"? Not only that, the hive mind concurred with the response that being able to sell a house without being underwater is breaking even.

I guess my idea that breaking even means not losing money is old fashioned.

Mantle
May 15, 2004

jm20 posted:

How would that play out if the investments soured? Would he solely declare bankruptcy?

Eh never mind too much to post from mobile.

Mantle fucked around with this message at 00:26 on Nov 24, 2015

Mantle
May 15, 2004

PT6A posted:

Also, if you partake of sin-taxed items that may be brought into the country duty free, you can literally save hundreds of dollars travelling abroad to buy them instead of buying them here. It won't pay for the entire cost of the travel, but it will pay for a lot.

The more you spend the more you save!

Mantle
May 15, 2004

Just to confirm my understanding, is it the case that when US interest rates go up, the cost of borrowing money in Canada will also slowly go up, so that instruments that pay dividends based on current rates will drop in value because investors can get higher returns at the same risk in the USA? I.e. bonds will drop in value until they can be reset at the new higher rates?

What is the consequence for preferred shares in Canada if US interest rates go up?

Mantle
May 15, 2004

The Butcher posted:

Garth Turner just had a word about this in a recent post:


Interestingly though the current market odds are something like 70% for the US rate rise this month, which conventional wisdom says Canadian will follow, and thus the value of preferred's should rise. However, Canadian preferreds have continued to drop, despite the increasing odds of the US rise. I would have thought that these odds would have gotten priced into the value of preferreds and they wouldn't still be dropping.

The reason behind this and what it ultimately means is lost on me though.

This is what I don't understand too. If the price keeps going down does that mean that the market thinks Canada is not going to follow?

Mantle
May 15, 2004

Depression is a mental illness too. And domestic violence following depression is a non sequitur.

Mantle
May 15, 2004

Canada is a third world country because its economy is based on resource extraction rather than added value services.

Mantle
May 15, 2004

My employer imposes exchange on us. There might as well not be a search function with how useless the outlook client is.

Mantle
May 15, 2004

ocrumsprug posted:

Banks raise money for mortgages on the bond market. The bond market is affected by US Fed rate changes.

The next couple of years of confused realtors complaining about how mortgage rates are too high when the BoC rate is zero should be fun.

To elaborate, a bank has different expectations for returns depending on where it invests its money. If a bank can get 3% return from a super low risk government bond, it will demand a higher rate than 3% when investing in a homeowner to account for the increased risk.

When US rates go up, Canadian banks will have a better place to put their money and will demand a higher rate from homeowners to account for increased risk.

Mantle
May 15, 2004

Why don't people invest in the states instead of being sad?

Mantle
May 15, 2004

Ben Myers Senior Vice President, Market Research and Analytics, Fortress Real Developments posted:

Toronto And Vancouver Real Estate Is Undervalued - Globally Speaking

http://m.huffpost.com/ca/entry/8810878

The difference between Vancouver and all those other cities is you can actually make money in those places.

Mantle
May 15, 2004

I think the problem with the bubble popping when interest rates are zero is that the central bank cannot lower interest rates to keep money moving.

Mantle
May 15, 2004

Not only that, but I think there is a way for boomers to "pay" for their property tax through equity in the home at effectively 0% interest. The current property tax shortfall is made up by non boomer owners and the future property tax liability is paid for by the buyers or inheritors of the property.

Mantle
May 15, 2004

Gus Hobbleton posted:

I want to know what people are doing that they graduate with only 28k of debt.

Working in the summer and part time during the year? Getting scholarships and bursaries?

Mantle
May 15, 2004

How come everyone glosses over the fact that a house bought in Vancouver with RMB 5 years ago needs to have net appreciated 50% in order to just break even?

Meanwhile if that money was in a diversified fund it would have increased 50% in actual value over the same time.

Mantle
May 15, 2004

Femtosecond posted:

This article highlights the fact that Vancouver really got caught flat footed by the fact that local developers had built nothing but glorified bachelor pads for decades, and millenials are starting to have kids and are wondering where the three bedroom condos are. Those with a great deal of money (personal or from family) are helping bid up the price of single family houses.

At the same time there is increasing competition for what small amount of large multi-bedroom condos that do exist from downsizing boomers that are selling their houses and moving to the city. Not only is selling their absurdly valued properties part of their retirement plan, but many are also recognizing that soon they'll not be able to drive, and living in the car oriented suburbs is going to be terrible.

All of the olds I know are clutching to their detached SFHs in a death grip and demanding more roads and parking because "how are old people going to get around if they don't drive".

Mantle
May 15, 2004

I found a good video explaining how property tax works to those idiots who think the market is forcing them to pay more. It's shut up a few people so far so I thought you guys might find it useful.

http://www.richmond.ca/cityhall/finance/rates/propertyassessments.htm

Mantle
May 15, 2004

I'm sure those boomers were just secret proxies for mainlanders with bags of illegal cash.

Mantle
May 15, 2004

The upside is Albertans will be trapped there by their mortgages.

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Mantle
May 15, 2004

How are you locked? Sell?

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