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Purgatory Glory
Feb 20, 2005

The only ad I have heard from Blue shore financial (located on the North shore in Vancouver)on the radio of late is something to the effect of " Are you helping your adult child buy a new home? we can help".

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Purgatory Glory
Feb 20, 2005
Nice to see a strata use common sense to deal with this. I live in a suburb of Vancouver so Air BnB isn't a feasible way to cover your rent. A coworkers father-in-law owns a building with8 units in China town. The rents under a grand a month and one of his tenants decided she can sublet her unit on Airbnb to pay her rent and make extra cash. The poor old guy has had to travel back and forth to the tenancy board or wherever to get the girl out. No luck yet, he gave up changing the lock and now the door to the unit doesn't even close.

Being in a strata is annoying but you bought there and agreed to abide by the rules. About a year ago there was a hooker in our lobby who refused to leave the building because some old bastard in my building had her follow him home after screwing him and then didn't pay her. So she settled in for the day while he hid where ever he lived in the building. If we used a fob system I'd be glad if they cut his off for letting strangers in the building.Not really the same thing but I'm sick of people thinking they get one over on everyone by ignoring strata rules. Take the guy in Coquitlam (another suburb of Vancouver) that decided the guest parking was his and kept his car and junk in the stall for a couple years. http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/port-coquitlam-couple-must-give-up-condo-over-parking-spot-1.2642860

Purgatory Glory fucked around with this message at 04:42 on Oct 2, 2016

Purgatory Glory
Feb 20, 2005

MikeSevigny posted:

no thank you

But but.. The Grey was shot in Smithers! The story of Liam Neeson attacked by wolves in a frozen shithole.

Purgatory Glory
Feb 20, 2005
I love this total disconnect of thinking.We need to make homes affordable and at the same time protect equity...

Purgatory Glory
Feb 20, 2005

OSI bean dip posted:

That's one less dinner out at Cactus Club.

Somebody retweet Cactus club asap!

Purgatory Glory
Feb 20, 2005

Femtosecond posted:

This website mapped the homes the census found not regularly occupied (being left empty or being Airbnb'd one would think)

Hot spots are unsurprisingly many (but not all) of the new condo areas. Coal Harbour, Downtown, Marine Gateway, Metrotown, and Richmond along the Canada Line.

Tons of supply sitting available for renters to take advantage of if Vancouver's unoccupancy tax and Airbnb rules end up being effective in getting people to rent these out.

Empty home tax was what 1% of home value? Anyone not interested in renting isn't going to be enticed to start.Make the tax slightly over expectedrental income. That'll get them to stop speculating, if that's the goal.

Purgatory Glory
Feb 20, 2005

apatheticman posted:

Can we officially call Baby Boomers "The Worst Generation" yet?

We get them back by charging crazy high prices for assisted living. It's a start at least.

Purgatory Glory
Feb 20, 2005

Racists! Let them money launder in peace.

Purgatory Glory
Feb 20, 2005

Femtosecond posted:

um wow if the Airbnb crackdown is actually for serious...

https://twitter.com/Patmeister/status/986067967119998976

What makes it an Airbnb and not an illegal suite that isn't rented out yet?

Purgatory Glory
Feb 20, 2005
Is there any downside to seizing homes that were purchased by Chinese money launderers, deporting them, and putting the houses back on the market in a controlled fashion?

Purgatory Glory
Feb 20, 2005

Who wouldn't be excited about cleaning dirty money?

Purgatory Glory
Feb 20, 2005

Baronjutter posted:

The last time there was a slight dip in the market and everyone was saying the crash was for real going to happen any moment, a family friend was selling his house. He wanted something ridiculous even for the market at the time and would not budge because he deserved it. He let the house sit on and off the market for about 3 years I think. Finally sold it, for more than he initially was holding out for.

I could see prices staying very sticky for a long time. The prices have been so bubbly for so long people have gotten very used to the warped views on house values. Sell the house I bought for 600k for only 2 million??? No way, I deserve 2.3 million! The NDP are trying to steal 300k from an old pensioner! This market is taxed to death.

I think you are right about attitudes of people towards prices. However, we are gonna start hitting a solid wall with rates/income/debt servicing if rates continue to creep up and stress test percentages rise as well. All that goes out the window if they continue to let Chinese money launderers continue to skew the market though.

Purgatory Glory
Feb 20, 2005
They need to take a scalpel to make it most painful to foreign Chinese owners. It'll feel like home, they ban the number of foreigners in restaurants:
http://www.businessinsider.com/beijing-restaurants-limit-foreign-customers-2018-3

Purgatory Glory
Feb 20, 2005
May have missed earlier posts on this but all the big credit unions are stress testing starting mid July. Anecdotally, people in general seem to be sobering up to the fact homes aren't worth a million bucks in the Fraser valley.

Purgatory Glory
Feb 20, 2005

Subjunctive posted:

Yeah, they wanted proof of income, but they don’t have CMHC backing them up on HELOCs, right?

Right, HELOC's can't exceed 65% of the homes value.

Purgatory Glory
Feb 20, 2005

Subjunctive posted:

I thought he said 80, but I can’t be bothered to dig the guidebook out, so let’s say you’re right.

I guess I should clarify that I am referring to chartered banks and Credit unions. Not B lenders, who I think can exceed that if they want.

Purgatory Glory
Feb 20, 2005

Dinosaurtrain posted:

I just tried to Google this and I can't find any references to credit union stress tests. Could you please link us?

Insider info, I guess the press doesn't know yet. I know brokers haven't been informed yet or literally just found out.

Purgatory Glory fucked around with this message at 04:53 on Jul 1, 2018

Purgatory Glory
Feb 20, 2005

Femtosecond posted:

All of this is true, but my point is that the economy is so good that people can afford to pay higher rates, even alt lender higher rates (at least for a short time until they fix their dumb rear end situation). From the conversations I've had with people that work in this industry, everyone involved is absolutely loath to go through a foreclosure process and everyone tries to make it work for the customer. This means that the customer may have to pay higher rates for a short period of time, but people are happy to put that on the table. So long as people have a steady job they can keep things afloat. People are willing to really cut back to hold on to their equity. The one thing that I would see causing a real implosion in the market, would be a traumatic recession which yields job losses and the scenario where people can simply no longer make payments at all.

Most of these high interest alt lender mortgages are super short term temporary 1 year mortgages just to handle weird special cases.

Don't forget that a shitload of places are rentals that were bought because real estate goes up and never goes down. The feeling on the street is sell sooner than later if you want to cash in at the high., which seems to be behind us already.

Purgatory Glory
Feb 20, 2005

leftist heap posted:

still waiting for even one confirmed report of a single senior facing actual hardship due to the 0.2% tax increase. Just one and I will put rosin on my violin bow

They all defer the tax anyways.

Purgatory Glory
Feb 20, 2005

THE BEATWEAVER posted:

From a private realtors group on FB:


But realtors are business geniuses..

Purgatory Glory
Feb 20, 2005

With that prognosis who wouldn't just end it now anyways?

Purgatory Glory
Feb 20, 2005
What's the difference between HELOC's and Fixed blocks as far as danger to the institution? People have been refinancing their fixed blocks over and over again and taking them to 80% where as HELOC's have been 65% for a while.

Purgatory Glory
Feb 20, 2005

what happened posted:

What's a fixed block?

https://www.td.com/document/PDF/ar2018/ar2018-Complete-Report.pdf



Certainly less on the book for HELOCs than residential mortgages but it's not nothing.

That spreadsheet calls them residential mortgages. Fixed block just means there is principal and interest repayment and an amortization period. But everybody just resets it to 25 years every time they refinance anyways. HELOCs are never never plans but at least they are capped at 65% and qualified the same way a fixed block is. Also curious if those are HELOC balances or just the available limits out there.

Purgatory Glory fucked around with this message at 22:59 on Dec 9, 2018

Purgatory Glory
Feb 20, 2005

Subjunctive posted:

Interesting. I’m pretty sure I’ve claimed accountant fees in the last two years, and all they really do is advise me on tax and prepare the filings. I’ll have to check with them that we’re doing the right thing.

I use my HELOC for capital calls on the GPLP fund I’m in from my last job, because with deduction of interest it’s better than those funds being out of the market, but I’m not brave enough to be leveraged more than like 10% of its limit. My banker made it sound like a pretty routine practice, to the extent that when I opened the HELOC he asked unprompted if I wanted a segment sliced off for easier bookkeeping WRT investment use.

The vast majority of people that the government is worried about don't have investment portfolio's that can be leveraged (non-RRSP). Anyone I've seen with investment backed LOC's are usually title-free homeowners or close to it and are doing it because of accountants orders or something like that. Or the reason they have a maxed out HELOC is because it's an investment property and they can deduct the interest.

Purgatory Glory fucked around with this message at 00:11 on Dec 10, 2018

Purgatory Glory
Feb 20, 2005

Subjunctive posted:

Can you say more about this? I thought deductibility of the loan interest was related to how the borrowed funds were used, and not whether the collateral property was the borrower’s residence or not.

You are right, my comment sorta implied the mortgage had to be on the investment property which is doesn't. The Accountant just needs to show the money went towards the investment property.

Purgatory Glory
Feb 20, 2005
https://theprovince.com/business/re...f1-5a298db6cd8b

quote:

Instead, condo owners spokesman Tony Gioventu said the government should go after buildings with empty units built for speculators and investors

Eliminating a strata council’s ability to ban owners from renting their units won’t result in adding any additional suites, according to the executive director of the Condominium Home Owners Association.

Tony Gioventu said changing the law would only displace people who were currently living in the units, such as owners or family.

“I don’t think it will provide any housing whatsoever,” he said.

Gioventu was responding to the release Wednesday of the provincial government’s Rental Housing Task Force. The number one recommendation was to ban renovictions, which is defined as evicting tenants to renovate and then renting the suite out at a higher rent.

Of the report’s 23 recommendations, number 9 would eliminate a strata corporation’s ability to ban rentals. The report says this would “increase the availability of currently empty strata housing.

“While the Task Force believes this change will help to increase the rental housing supply, it is also important to give strata corporations the ability to evict tenants in exceptional cases where negligence, abuse or law breaking is disrupting the quiet enjoyment of other residents, putting people in danger, or harming the building,” the report states.

The previous Liberal provincial government changed the Strata Property Act on Jan. 1, 2010 to allow a developer not only to specify in their rental disclosure statement how many units can be rented and for how long, but also that a strata corporation can’t change it.

The change was supposed to allow owners to generate cash from their investments, according to then Housing Minister Rich Coleman.

“One of the biggest complaints we got, frankly — I heard from people who were Asian investors who bought units in Vancouver on the basis of they thought they could rent them out, that they could have some cash flow towards their investments, which they were going to hold,” he told The Vancouver Sun in July, 2010.

“After they bought them, along came a strata corporation and said: ‘Those rentals are no longer allowed here.’”

But Gioventu estimated that most empty suites are in the 180,000 strata units built since 2010.

Strata corporations formed before 2010 can adopt bylaws to limit or prohibit rentals. But he estimated that about 95 per cent already permit some form of rentals — usually from five to 10 per cent of all units. He said it was the “rare strata” that prohibits all rentals.

He said that in 2017 the City of Vancouver and the B.C. government asked his organization what would happen if the bylaw banning rentals was rescinded.

To find out, CHOA studied 16 buildings in Greater Vancouver with 50 or more units. Eight dated from after 2010 where there were no rental restrictions; and eight before 2010.

“The buildings that had rental bylaws that were pre 2010 had the lowest vacancy rate,” he said.

“Right across the board, they were below two per cent. So people are occupying the units or have family members occupying the units.”

Less than two per cent meant in essence that there were no vacant units in buildings with rental bylaws.

In the buildings built since 2010, he said, vacancy rates were between 20 and 35 per cent.

“Those are the buildings that should be targeted and the rental bylaws have absolutely nothing to do with them,” Gioventu said.

“The main reason is because the units themselves are used by investors or speculators, It is the new buildings where people have come in as speculators and bought multiple units. They’re not being occupied because people don’t want to deal with tenants. Those are the buildings that are the problem.”

CHOA describes itself as a consumer-based non profit that promotes strata property living and the interests of strata property owners. He said there are about 30,000 strata corporations in B.C.

Gioventu said targeting the limited number of potential rentals from strata councils is putting the responsibility of the housing crisis on the back of consumers.

“It’s not really about housing availability,” he said.

“It’s about housing affordability. We won’t get any more units rented because of rental bylaws being lifted.”

Gioventu also estimates that many as 10,000 units have been lost to Airbnb in Metro Vancouver.

“The government is not targeting them because the government is getting a main stream of revenue for PST,” he said.

Am I part of the problem wanting my strata to be forced to allow me to rent out my place so I don't have to sell it at such a loss during the crash?

Purgatory Glory
Feb 20, 2005

Fuzzy Mammal posted:

Also it's just regular old income, unlike if you had invested through a tfsa or whatever.

And you're rich and make so much money that you bought it clear title but you want to dick around being a landlord.

Purgatory Glory
Feb 20, 2005

DariusLikewise posted:

https://m.huffingtonpost.ca/2018/12/23/housing-affordability-canada-2018_a_23625782/?ec_carp=6879866888664886295

RBC says it’s the fault of interest rates and stress tests that no one can afford a house.

I'd say that's been a factor in slowing things down, but anecdotally people are having the opposite feelings than they were in 2016 when I speak to them about buying:

2016:
-Panic to get in, offers over asking(sorry, a lot were Chinese).
-Downsizing and moving East.

2018:
-Seeing things sitting on the market longer
-sellers panicked to get their place sold because they don't think they will see these values for a long time.
-Understanding the stress test is a good thing since rates are poised to climb.


I had a signing with a young guy through broker channel (meaning I didn't underwrite it, just signing the paperwork). It was the first purchase in a long while I'd seen. It seemed stupid to me:
-mid 30s guy
-did well on his town-home sale so had 200K to put down
-880K mortgage
-House with carriage home
-he makes 100k, needs rent to come from the basement and carriage home to make numbers work.
-rates cimb 1% and he needs $750 more a month to not default.

I feel like if everything goes perfectly he doesn't default and will just manage to stay above water. Also, he's a tradesman so work is related to the housing market.

Purgatory Glory
Feb 20, 2005

UnfortunateSexFart posted:

This audio interview does a good job of explaining how the thousands of people who bought a presale condo in the last two-ish years in Vancouver are hosed. Mainly that you have to re-qualify for a mortgage based on your lower home value before completion, leaving you to come up with the $50,000+ value that disappeared.

https://twitter.com/SteveSaretsky/status/1091735076277108738

I wonder how many stories of people walking away from deposits till real panic if any starts to spread.

Purgatory Glory
Feb 20, 2005

Femtosecond posted:

So Jagmeet Singh just announced a new plank of his housing platform. His solution to high housing prices is to... juice demand and re-inflate the housing bubble.


Jesus Christ this is 100% the opposite policy he should be proposing. Who on loving earth is Singh listening to on this file?

I'm done defending this guy. He really is a lovely dumb centrist.

The South Asian community fervently invests only in real estate, gotta protect that equity.

Purgatory Glory
Feb 20, 2005

Mameluke posted:

14 people in an 8 bedroom house with presumably...2 kitchens? I didn't think renting could get worse but

Still, nice to see places put on the market that were previously just making up a portion of their investment portfolio.

Purgatory Glory
Feb 20, 2005

Heners_UK posted:

Can $3600/mo actually cover the mortgage on a typical $4m home? Even setting aside insurance, tax and maintenance?

If they put 20% down they have a mortgage of 3.2 million. 2016 mortgage rate of 2.69%= monthly payment of only $14,600.00

If they put 80% down (where'd that money come from? downsized to this dump in vancouver from a larger house?), mortgage of 800K . 2016 rate of 2.69% = monthly payment of $3,650.00.

This guy hosed up big time if he isn't just money laundering.

Purgatory Glory
Feb 20, 2005

qhat posted:

Spoiler alert: they don't actually live here

Ok, eat the rich's children.

Purgatory Glory
Feb 20, 2005
Parents sign gift letters all the time and expect repayment. It's just to make the lender happy.

Purgatory Glory
Feb 20, 2005

Grouchio posted:

How prepared are the Canadian banks for the next recession? I have a family member working at TD and I don't want them laid off or stripped of retirement funds.

I would think banks are fine. But if house prices dropped enough I would be curious what situation CMHC and Genworth would be in. Maybe a Fanny Mae &Freddie Mac type scenario.

Purgatory Glory
Feb 20, 2005

incontinence 100 posted:

Isn't the majority of TD's residential mortgage book insured by the CMHC? At least the portion of book where the borrower is marginal? The major banks will likely have layoffs, just like the last recession but the banks will likely not experience anything close to an existential crisis.

Everything that had less than a 20 percent down payment is backed by cmhc and genworth. The banks only feel the pain when values drop further than 20 percent and people walk from mortgages that were not backed. That's not to say that a bank won't poo poo-can employees in the event they aren't doing anywhere near the volume of mortgage business. That won't be because the bank is in trouble though.

Purgatory Glory fucked around with this message at 04:06 on Aug 24, 2019

Purgatory Glory
Feb 20, 2005

Risky Bisquick posted:

Who’s going to walk from full recourse loans? Going to be pretty hard unless you plan on leaving Canada so they never collect the judgement against you.

It's happened before. Once it gets normalized people do it more and more as well. If I owned a house worth 500k and owed 800k, I'd have to at least think about walking away and renting till the bankruptcys finished. Again, in the 80s, people became pretty understanding of this. At least they say they were.

Purgatory Glory
Feb 20, 2005
Exactly, and you know a guy who knows a guy that bailed then you do it too. Just like everyone makes money flipping so you have to buy to not be stupid. Maybe we see the flipside. See what a recession will cause when money laundering isn't as prevailent.

Purgatory Glory
Feb 20, 2005

CRISPYBABY posted:

I pay all my bills near instantly (no mortgage so just LoC/Credit Card) but wonder if banks would like me more if I dragged things out and sucked some more interest out of me. I wonder what the ideal customer looks like. Someone whose chronically late and only makes the minimum payment on everything but simultaneously somehow never defaults?

It's a myth that lenders (at least traditional ones) like people who pay lot's of interest. Many lenders use different scores to determine credit worthiness:
-FICO(people know as the credit score) measures how late you are on payments. Also if you are close to the limit on revolving debt when you get it checked again. Tells us the history of your mistakes with your debt.
-TUBS score(transunion bankruptcy score). This most people havent heard of and we don't explain that if their credit is poo poo that this is reason cause it just confuses them. This measures how much debt you have open and where the balances are compared to the limit. It tells us the chances poo poo will go wrong.

The analogy I use is to compare it to is those plate spinner guys. FICO tells us how many times he's dropped a plate. TUBS tells us if he has set up so many plates that even if they have't dropped yet that it's becoming inevitable.

Credit card companies love people that pay early and use the card like crazy cause they sit back and collect the fees from the vendor and have no risk. People who have been paying lot's of interest are a sure sign things are going to go sideways eventually, or they are just poor money managers.

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Purgatory Glory
Feb 20, 2005

ocrumsprug posted:

LMFAO, prime + 10% from TD.

And here I thought my 6% rate was tough.

For a mortgage that is.

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