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Jul 22, 2007



Seven Hundred Bee posted:

there was a big controversy in germany in the 60s (IIRC) when it was discovered that one of the government-funded german research institutes was staffed by a bunch of ex-nazi psuedoscientists.

statistically, about 12,000 intellectuals fled germany from 1933 - 1940.
I've always found it pretty frightening to consider what would have happened if the Nazis managed to hang on to the really important intellectuals that fled the Axis countries. It's basically a list of (many) of the big names in or around the Manhattan project: Einstein, Fermi, Szilard, Teller and (kinda) von Neumann. With the exception of von Neumann, each of those scientists left for America in or slightly after 1933.

Other really prominent scientists, Liese Meitner, Fritz Haber, and Emmy Noether, for example, were driven out but did not later become involved in the Manhattan project. Nevertheless, it's hard to see their time going to waste in a country at war.

It's difficult to predict what would have happened if Germany managed to hang onto those 12,000 intellectuals, but the number is deceiving in that so many of those driven out were truly at the pinnacle of their careers and at the tops of their respective fields. It's just my opinion, but I've always thought that, had the Nazis managed to get those big names to stay, a Nazi nuclear bomb would have been alarmingly likely; and that just goes to show how early the Nazis started working on their own defeat.

Speaking of counterfactuals -- I've always wondered what the plan was in the event of a successful invasion of the USSR. Did the Nazis think that there simply was no other threat? I mean, if the Nazis had eked out a win at Stalingrad in 1942, for example, they might have exhausted the USSR and forced its surrender. At that point, though, Nazi Germany would be in a shambles, Africa would be lost, the strategic bombing would have only accelerated, etc. Even if the Nazis managed to beat the Soviets and negotiate some kind of peace with the remaining Allies, how could they possibly repair their economy or deal with hordes of demobilized soldiers?

What, in other words, would the Western European (particularly German/Austrian/Czech areas) look like after some kind of limited victory that left the Nazis with much of Europe but the rest of the world hostile? Were there any plans for that eventuality at all?

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Jul 22, 2007



EvanSchenck posted:

Like quite a lot of counterfactuals about the Nazis, the answer to this question is "if they could have done X they would not have been the Nazis".
Yeah, this sorta occurred to me as well after I posted it. I do think it's worth pointing out, though, because the Nazis drove the major theoreticians that enabled the Manhattan project to proceed apace. You're right in that there probably isn't really a counterfactual there -- but it does illustrate the self-destructiveness of the Nazi ideology in that they kicked out a bunch of really important nuclear scientists and early computer scientists/cryptographers.

EvanSchenck posted:

The battle of Stalingrad was a complete debacle and a turning point for the Germans, but conversely it probably would not have been nearly as destructive a loss for the Soviets they been pushed out instead. Much is and was made of the fact that Stalingrad was the last defensive point and there seemingly wasn't anywhere to check the Germans behind it, but taking the city doesn't get the Germans across the Volga. Realistically the effort of capturing the city would leave the Sixth Army severely depleted and in no condition to press on, and there isn't really anybody behind them to take over. Independent of the outcome of the fighting in the city itself, the Soviets are also massing for Operation Uranus. It's conceivable that the capture of the city would complicate the Soviet attack and cause it to be less successful than historical, but even so the Soviets would still be in a far better position in the area than the Germans simply because they had more fresh reserves available and the Germans in Stalingrad were operating at the tip of a very long salient.

To answer this, simply return to the topic of atomic weapons. The US military had plans for production of additional devices to be used to shatter Japanese defenses in preparation for a land invasion. Production was scaled back when Japan surrendered instead, but there would have been a number of bombs available by late 1945. In your scenario these weapons would go to Europe instead.
That's true, but I doubt it was in the Nazi plan. I was aware of Generalplan Ost, for example, what I'm wondering is if there was an analogue for the area of the Axis powers as well as Western Europe. What were the Nazis long-term plans for, say, France, Norway, or Denmark, as well as Germany and southeastern Europe?

As far as Stalingrad goes, a successful capture of Stalingrad after a frontal assault might have avoided 6th army starving to death in the ruins of Stalingrad over the winter, but it's an open question whether or not a Stalingrad could have been captured by frontal assault anyway. As I recall, Hitler was the one who insisted on sending armies into the city to capture it. If the Germans had pursued a reverse Operation Uranus strategy in the first place, the thinking goes, they could have avoided the bloodbath of Stalingrad altogether. Basically, a scenario where the Red Army never manages to make a real stand in or around Stalingrad pushes the turning point back to 1943, and on top of that, even the USSR could have run out of men or space if pushed very much past the Volga.

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Jul 22, 2007



Unluckyimmortal posted:

I was aware of Generalplan Ost, for example, what I'm wondering is if there was an analogue for the area of the Axis powers as well as Western Europe. What were the Nazis long-term plans for, say, France, Norway, or Denmark, as well as Germany and southeastern Europe?
I think this got overlooked as well, but it's one of the questions that I've just never really seen an answer for. Germany had various plans for winning the war, ranging from decent to ridiculously stupid. What plan did they have for winning the peace, so to speak, in the west? What would a postwar Nazi Europe look like in the areas that were never planned for colonies? What did they intend to do with places like Norway and Britain (had they captured Britain at all)?

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