Werewhale posted:

If there's a snap election, we will have had five governments in eleven years...

Bold prediction:

• There will be a snap election.
  
  
• Pirates will lose seats, not because they did anything wrong but because last year was abnormal and they'll return to a natural equilibrium.
  
  
• The Independence Party will lose one seat at most and remain the largest party. Lose some from this scandal, gain some from voters returning from Resurgence, still have their loyal base. EDIT: After the Independence Party's leader's press conference, I think they might lose very little from this scandal and just gain voters returning from Resurgence, ending up with more seats than last election.
  
  
• No one will want to work with the Independence Party, so they'll be in the minority despite being largest. Actually, Resurgence/Viðreisn will probably be willing to work with them, but...
  
  
• Resurgence/Viðreisn will lose a bunch of seats, reflecting a feeling that they're just off-brand Independence Party anyway.
  
  
• Iceland FirstPeople's Party/Flokkur fólksins will get into Alþingi.
  
  
• Bright Future will still lose a few seats, but breaking the government will vindicate them to a number of voters who felt like they were acting as xD's lapdogs, so they won't be completely wiped out.

I say this is a bold prediction because I have a very shallow understanding of politics and this is probably completely wrong.