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DanManIt
Sep 5, 2008
Just a FYI but the average return of the market at 7-8% is after inflation is factored in. The reason for the 4% safe withdrawal rate is because that is the average dividend yield.

All of this is derived from long term trends (20+ years) and that's why the financial independence crew likes to use it.

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DanManIt
Sep 5, 2008

Shipon posted:

Is it even reasonable to extrapolate past trends into the future, given the troubles virtually every developed nation is going through along with impending issues in nations like China or India?

That's the real question. A lot of the fi gurus seem to think it is reasonable but I'm not quite so sure.

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