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Huttan
May 15, 2013
The 4% number came from an older study. The presumption was that some years you do well, some poorly. But on average, drawing 4% of the current balance should not deplete your assets unless you're living 30+ years in retirement. A more modern study, using similar presumptions, and done after 2008, claims that 2.5% is the new "safe" draw down rate. If you get too many years like 2008, where you lose 50% of your portfolio in a single year then there is no amount you can possibly save that last you until your death (unless you have 8 digits saved up).

No Wave posted:

One hack I'm still looking into - if you have money in an IRA or 401(k), it seems like you can transfer a little of your money every year into its respective Roth counterpart. This is loving phenomenal for years of low income, ie, most of your years post-financial independence. Just transfer about 25k a year from standard to Roth when your income is zero, pay very little tax, and it'll all be tax-free when you start withdrawing it after age 59.5. This is because money taken from a 401(k) isn't technically "investment" income, and is taxed like normal income, and it's much better to spread out your standard income over a long period (done by the gradual conversion).

I work in the industry and this 401k thing you're describing may or may not be allowed by your plan. It is a lot of paperwork for the plan sponsor and they're not likely to do it at all.

You probably should be rolling your 401k into your IRA when you leave a company (this depends on the vesting of the company match). Recharacterizing your traditional IRA into a Roth IRA means that you treat it as income in the year you recharacterize it. This is why you do it during your low income years.

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Huttan
May 15, 2013

tuyop posted:

US Inflation is like 1.8-2% this year, dude. You need to take some more risks!
The "official" inflation rate is around 2%. The administration keeps deleting consumer price indices and producer price indices that show higher inflation rates. Shadowstats has been measuring inflation and unemployment in much higher amounts than the official stats. If you measure the cost of groceries you purchase, and include the smaller container sizes (cynically called the "grocery shrink ray"), you will measure somewhere between 10 and 15% inflation.
http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts

One example of a deleted stat is Producer Price Index for Heavy Construction. An elected office I ran for was in charge of a massive transportation construction project. The cost overruns (more than 100% over budget) were due to very high inflation in project essentials such as concrete, steel and copper.

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