2013 NCAA Moon Polls!

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wa27: Jan 15, 2007

I'll be doing my poll this year; the first few weeks are always too close to last year's results to be interesting though.

Captain von Trapp posted:

After a really embarrassingly long time of coding, I wrote a Python script to convert the cfbstats.com files to the NCAA csv format. Please spot-check it to make sure I haven't borked the coding somewhere. Sadly it's just FBS. If someone finds this kind of data for FCS let me know and I'll include it as well. This is the result from cfbstats.com's data on their website now, which does not yet include this weekend's games. When it does I'll post that as well.

I don't use this data but thanks for doing that! I hope everyone can get their polls up and running again this year.

# ¿ Sep 8, 2013 22:31

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# ¿ May 22, 2024 15:26

wa27: Jan 15, 2007

Every week I keep thinking I'll finally get motivated and run my poll, and every week I don't bother.

Maybe this will be the week. :effort:

# ¿ Nov 11, 2013 19:55

wa27: Jan 15, 2007

Alright, I finally got around to running my poll for the past 12 weeks.

quote:

Description
This ranking is an attempt to rank teams according to how bettors see them, rather than looking at their stats and win/loss records. It is often the case that two teams may be ranked closely in a voted poll, but when they play each other, the point spread is larger than their rankings would indicate. Each week, this poll looks at the upcoming matchup and makes a point spread prediction. This spread is then compared to the actual point spread, and a team's points are adjusted based on the difference. In theory, the point spread guesses will become closer and closer to the actual spreads as the weeks pass, resulting in a more accurate ranking of teams.

Details
Each team has a point value, initially determined by the results of the 2012 poll. The point spread prediction is made using the formula Team B points - Team A points. If the game is a home game for Team A, 3 points are subtracted. If it is an away game, those points are added instead. Note that a prediction is only made for Division 1 teams playing Division 1 teams. If a team is playing a cupcake or has no game, this will be noted on the sheet and their points will not change.

A team's new points for the current week are set with the following formula:
Old Score + (Predicted Spread - Actual Spread)*x, Where x is the Spread Influence variable.

The story of the season so far is Oregon took #1 from Bama in week 4 and has held it since then. They stayed a heavy favorite against Utah so they haven't dropped since the Stanford loss. The top four teams have been pretty far ahead of the rest until this week, when Ohio State jumped up closer to that group.

My poll is really starting to show it's bias towards high-scoring teams this year thanks to Baylor, Oregon, and FSU.

Tidbits:

-This week the poll predicted the spreads of each game to within an average difference of 3.64 points. Not spectacular because it was averaging around 3.00 in the later weeks of 2012. I didn't make any changes to the formula this year.

-FSU will probably lose points next week. My poll is predicting the spread to be a whopping -62.73, while the actual spread is "only" -56.5. This is an extreme example of how lopsided games have too much of an influence on my rankings. They'll only lose a point or two, but I should probably change the poll next year to have the influence variable scale down as the spread goes up.

code:

Rank	Team Name	Pts.
1	Oregon	58.70
2	Baylor	58.56
3	Florida State	57.85
4	Alabama	56.86
5	Ohio State	53.45
6	Texas AM	48.87
7	Wisconsin	47.52
8	LSU	46.13
9	South Carolina	45.11
10	Oklahoma State	44.90
11	Oklahoma	44.78
12	Clemson	44.38
13	Stanford	43.70
14	Arizona State	43.07
15	Louisville	42.86
16	Georgia	42.31
17	Washington	41.60
18	UCLA	41.01
19	Michigan State	40.74
20	Auburn	40.68
21	Kansas State	40.22
22	Missouri	39.10
23	Texas	38.94
24	Mississippi	38.64
25	BYU	37.48
26	Michigan	36.77
27	Boise State	36.49
28	Georgia Tech	36.45
29	Notre Dame	36.30
30	Southern Cal	36.25
31	Miami (FL)	36.18
32	Virginia Tech	35.99
33	Florida	35.93
34	Arizona	35.59
35	Texas Tech	35.53
36	Northwestern	35.48
37	Central Florida	35.10
38	Oregon State	34.02
39	Nebraska	33.77
40	Texas Christian	33.59
41	Fresno State	33.25
42	Utah State	32.93
43	Utah	32.73
44	Iowa	32.68
45	East Carolina	32.34
46	Penn State	31.98
47	Northern Illinois	31.92
48	Marshall	31.88
49	Vanderbilt	31.52
50	Mississippi State	31.14
51	North Carolina	30.90
52	Cincinnati	30.10
53	Pittsburgh	28.77
54	Tennessee	28.64
55	Duke	28.40
56	Minnesota	28.25
57	West Virginia	27.88
58	Houston	27.62
59	Indiana	26.81
60	Bowling Green State	26.80
61	Washington State	26.58
62	Toledo	26.41
63	Ball State	26.21
64	Maryland	25.89
65	Boston College	25.75
66	Arkansas	25.59
67	San Jose State	25.26
68	North Texas	25.13
69	Louisiana-Lafayette	25.01
70	Iowa State	24.61
71	Rice	24.19
72	Southern Methodist	23.78
73	Syracuse	23.73
74	Colorado State	23.43
75	Navy	23.00
76	Kentucky	22.80
77	Rutgers	22.39
78	SUNY-Buffalo	22.32
79	Virginia	22.21
80	North Carolina State	21.58
81	San Diego State	21.29
82	Ohio	21.15
83	Wake Forest	20.80
84	Illinois	20.38
85	Memphis	20.26
86	Western Kentucky	19.72
87	Air Force	18.83
88	Texas-San Antonio	18.54
89	South Alabama	18.28
90	Wyoming	17.86
91	Kansas	17.43
92	Tulsa	17.37
93	Arkansas State	16.56
94	Nevada	16.35
95	California	16.29
96	Middle Tennessee St.	16.21
97	Florida Atlantic	15.97
98	South Florida	15.22
99	Louisiana-Monroe	15.04
100	Colorado	14.95
101	New Mexico	14.72
102	UNLV	14.43
103	Temple	14.02
104	Troy	13.99
105	Purdue	13.94
106	Kent State	13.89
107	Connecticut	13.40
108	Louisiana Tech	13.35
109	Tulane	13.06
110	Akron	12.08
111	Texas State	12.03
112	Hawaii	11.93
113	Central Michigan	9.36
114	Army	9.18
115	UAB	8.42
116	Western Michigan	4.31
117	UTEP	3.74
118	Massachusetts	2.28
119	Eastern Michigan	0.96
120	Florida Intl	0.66
121	Georgia State	0.35
122	Miami (OH)	-0.72
123	New Mexico State	-1.29
124	Southern Miss	-1.35
125	Idaho	-1.88

Does anyone have that link that converts poorly aligned tabbed tables into nice tables?

# ¿ Nov 19, 2013 02:37

wa27: Jan 15, 2007

Hey so I finally ran the last six weeks of my poll. congrats to Oregon! :v:

FSU was actually in first going into bowls, but the huge spread for Oregon over Texas was enough to put them on top. Also my poll has been down on Auburn since the start.

code:

1	Oregon	58.86
2	Alabama	55.34
3	Florida State	55.12
4	Ohio State	50.71
5	Wisconsin	49.92
6	Oklahoma State	48.05
7	Clemson	47.99
8	Texas	47.99
9	Baylor	46.76
10	Stanford	46.05
11	LSU	45.67
12	Arizona State	45.61
13	South Carolina	45.08
14	Auburn	44.44
15	Texas AM	43.48
16	Missouri	43.33
17	Michigan State	43.07
18	Georgia	42.69
19	Washington	42.20
20	Oklahoma	41.01
21	Kansas State	40.50
22	Southern Cal	40.11
23	Oregon State	39.74
24	Mississippi	39.06
25	Louisville	38.84
26	UCLA	38.61
27	Iowa	38.35
28	Miami (FL)	36.11
29	Utah State	36.01
30	Michigan	35.89
31	Central Florida	35.79
32	Nebraska	35.78
33	Texas Christian	35.38
34	BYU	35.36
35	Virginia Tech	35.08
36	Georgia Tech	35.07
37	Boise State	34.79
38	Arizona	34.54
39	Fresno State	34.15
40	Texas Tech	33.72
41	Notre Dame	32.85
42	Northwestern	32.83
43	Marshall	32.41
44	Florida	32.30
45	Duke	31.91
46	Bowling Green State	31.89
47	Mississippi State	31.70
48	Northern Illinois	31.56
49	East Carolina	31.25
50	North Carolina	30.79
51	Cincinnati	30.73
52	Penn State	30.14
53	Utah	29.79
54	Houston	29.77
55	Vanderbilt	29.51
56	Boston College	29.16
57	Tennessee	29.16
58	Pittsburgh	28.87
59	Indiana	27.76
60	Minnesota	26.99
61	West Virginia	26.95
62	Maryland	26.65
63	Toledo	26.54
64	Washington State	26.51
65	Ball State	25.85
66	Colorado State	25.21
67	Syracuse	24.88
68	Arkansas	24.40
69	Navy	24.35
70	SUNY-Buffalo	24.33
71	Illinois	24.12
72	San Jose State	23.46
73	Rice	22.59
74	North Texas	22.41
75	Southern Methodist	22.35
76	Iowa State	22.15
77	Kentucky	21.89
78	Western Kentucky	21.68
79	North Carolina State	21.40
80	Virginia	21.33
81	San Diego State	21.24
82	Louisiana-Lafayette	20.89
83	Texas-San Antonio	20.78
84	Middle Tennessee St.	20.54
85	Arkansas State	20.29
86	Memphis	20.09
87	Rutgers	19.99
88	Ohio	19.87
89	Wake Forest	19.69
90	Kansas	19.64
91	Florida Atlantic	19.43
92	South Alabama	18.95
93	Tulsa	17.67
94	Nevada	17.65
95	UNLV	17.44
96	Tulane	17.41
97	South Florida	16.38
98	California	15.76
99	Troy	15.47
100	Temple	15.25
101	Colorado	15.25
102	Kent State	15.22
103	Wyoming	14.90
104	Connecticut	14.85
105	Hawaii	14.47
106	Louisiana-Monroe	14.08
107	Army	13.31
108	Akron	12.45
109	Purdue	12.06
110	Central Michigan	11.96
111	Air Force	11.74
112	Texas State	11.27
113	Louisiana Tech	10.01
114	UAB	6.54
115	New Mexico	5.94
116	Western Michigan	2.89
117	Massachusetts	2.28
118	Georgia State	1.36
119	UTEP	0.86
120	Idaho	-1.21
121	Eastern Michigan	-1.41
122	New Mexico State	-1.77
123	Florida Intl	-3.30
124	Miami (OH)	-3.31
125	Southern Miss	-4.84

edit: fixed.

wa27 fucked around with this message at 02:00 on May 6, 2014

# ¿ May 6, 2014 01:06

wa27: Jan 15, 2007

Woah! I just found a bug in my poll. Apparently Vegasinsider uses "pk" instead of 0 for an even matchup. I missed this for the past three years, so games that should have been even got practically random values assigned for their point spreads. I'm not sure how I didn't notice this before, especially in previous years when I spent a lot of time looking at the results. Thankfully Vegasinsider still has data for the past few years on their site.

I've updated my last post with the actual final poll. Although I based my initial values off last year's final values, so changes I make to 2011's data might have a minor impact on 2013's results. :stonk:

# ¿ May 6, 2014 02:07

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# ¿ May 22, 2024 15:26

wa27: Jan 15, 2007

kayakyakr posted:

Your poll still really, really likes TCU.

It looks like, for some reason, bettors really liked TCU more than they should have. TCU was favored against Texas and Texas Tech, and heavily favored over West Virginia (which my poll also liked for a while). They went 4-8 against the spread.

On the other end of the spectrum, Tulane didn't get any respect from bettors. They went 9-4 against the spread and were the lowest ranked team to go to a bowl.

# ¿ May 6, 2014 17:01

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