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I am super hype to deploy The Son Of The Mukai Moon Poll (as seen here!). It is going to be The Hindenberg Mark II, but I am excited to be in the center of the firestorm even so.
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Aug 21, 2013 03:13
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I would make a poll-like substance if I could get the stats, the NCAA appears to be being slow about uploading them to http://web1.ncaa.org/mfb/download.jsp?year=2013&div=IA 
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Sep 4, 2013 02:36
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Tad SG posted:It looks like they moved the stats to a new site this year, and it is much less convenient to use: Jesus christ, that's USELESS. Looks like this moon poll might be dead in the water.
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Sep 5, 2013 02:02
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Captain von Trapp posted:For those whose polls only need team names, scores, dates, and home/away, they're available in CSV here: I found that, actually, but I can't see that they've updated it with the week 1 scores anywhere.
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Sep 5, 2013 20:10
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Captain von Trapp posted:For those whose polls only need team names, scores, dates, and home/away, they're available in CSV here: Update: They removed the part where they claim results will be in that csv file too. So it's official. Unless something changes in the next few weeks, no moon poll from me this year, I really don't want to figure out another parsing method for another data tool after the assache getting this one down was.
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Sep 6, 2013 23:18
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Okay! After much heartache and screaming at scripts that should have been a lot simpler than they were to make, I am back online! First I will repost the explanation of the maths that I posted last year when I came up with it, and then the first results! Mukai's ELO-Modified Moon Poll Overview: This moon poll is an attempt to use the Elo method of team ranking, popularized by chess, and apply it to college football while also including margin of victory. No stats other than scores, date, and location are used. Every team starts with 1 (one) point as their ranking. Yes, Akron and Alabama start in the same place, because I wanted to remove subjectivity as much as I could. For each match, the "expected win"% is calculated with a formula that takes into account both rankings. It'll spit out 50% if both teams are equally rated. The expected win percentage for Team A playing Team B: 1/(1+10^( (rating_team_B - rating_team_a)/0.4 ) ) If both are equal, it's always 50%. If team A is 0.2 points better than team B, they'll have if you do the math a 76% of beating them; 0.4 points better, 91%, and so on. Given that, as a special case, non-Division 1A teams are set at an effective rating of 0.6 points no matter who they are; this means that in week 1, I expect 91% of teams to beat their 1-AA opponents. Note that this is symmetric- if team A has a 76% chance of beating team B, team B has a 24% chance of beating team A, just like you'd expect. So! I have how much I expect teams to win. The games are played, and sometimes I'm kinda right! But I have to for every match update the stats based on who won what. Using the data presented at http://football.stassen.com/pointspread/ I have a correlation between how often a team favored by X points by Vegas wins. I make the leap that A, Vegas is usually if not the smartest than very near the smartest picker in aggregate, and thus get things about right; I also make the slightly bigger leap that a team that actually wins by X points would win Y% of the time, if teams favored by X points historically win Y% of the time. If you don't trust that leap, you can probably just ignore this moon poll, but it actually works decently well. I take the actual point spread (and correct it for location, using what seems to be a standard 4 point advantage for home teams; I'm equivalently putting everything on a 'neutral field' in hindsight) and determine "actual win%" for the game. Edge case; any margin over 30 points is set to 99%, because I don't believe in no-win scenarios. That's a bit wordy, so I'll go through the math with an example from last season. Coming into Week 3's home game against Arkansas, Alabama's rating is 1.171; they've won both games commandingly. Arkansas's rating, right off the home loss to Louisiana-Monroe, is 1.003; the loss almost canceled their handy win over a 1-AA team. The difference between the two teams' ratings is 0.168; Alabama then, by the formula, is expected to win 72.4% of the time, which correlates to a point margin of just a shade under 9 points on a neutral field. Since Alabama's at home, they're "expected" to beat Arkansas by just under two touchdowns. Playing the game, Alabama actually wins by 52, which is a horrifying number. That's greater than 30, so I declare that Alabama would have won 99% of the time that game was replayed. So, I have an expected win% of 72.4% and an actual win% of 99%... Okay. Once we have that, the next step is to update ratings. It's pretty easy; after a whole lot of trials, I settled on New Rating = Old Rating + 0.2 * (Actual Win% - Expected Win%) for both teams, with the caveat that "you can never lose points by winning or gain points by losing". So, in our example above, for Alabama New Rating = 1.171 + 0.2 * (0.99-0.724) = 1.224 (gain of 0.053 points) and for Arkansas, New Rating = 1.003 + 0.2 * (0.724-0.99) = 0.950 (loss of 0.053 points) And now without further ado: Mukai Moon Poll Week 3: "No, Seriously, UCF" Edition Well, this is awkward. My first new moon poll, and I have: -UCF #6 -Georgia Tech #8 -Alabama #10 (to be fair, there's a bias towards teams that have played more) Well, we'll go with it, it'll sort itself out soon enough. Until then, moon polls will enjoy their traditional bouts of utter madness. At least a sane team's at the top and at the bottom, right? pre:Rank Team Rating 1 'Oregon' 1.308 2 'Louisville' 1.239 3 'LSU' 1.227 4 'Oklahoma St.' 1.214 5 'Oklahoma' 1.213 6 'UCF' 1.209 7 'Arizona' 1.198 8 'Georgia Tech' 1.197 9 'Florida St.' 1.187 10 'Alabama' 1.182 11 'Auburn' 1.177 12 'Michigan' 1.171 13 'UCLA' 1.170 14 'Indiana' 1.160 15 'Northwestern' 1.160 16 'Ohio St.' 1.154 17 'Washington' 1.152 18 'Southern Cal' 1.134 19 'Maryland' 1.130 20 'Navy' 1.130 21 'Minnesota' 1.125 22 'Stanford' 1.125 23 'Texas Tech' 1.122 24 'Ole Miss' 1.122 25 'Penn St.' 1.117 26 'Utah St.' 1.117 27 'Washington St' 1.111 28 'Wisconsin' 1.100 29 'Baylor' 1.093 30 'Wyoming' 1.086 31 'Marshall' 1.085 32 'North Texas' 1.078 33 'Michigan St.' 1.072 34 'Texas A&M' 1.065 35 'BYU' 1.063 36 'Missouri' 1.062 37 'Arizona St.' 1.055 38 'Houston' 1.055 39 'Rutgers' 1.052 40 'Ball St.' 1.052 41 'Tennessee' 1.051 42 'Texas St.' 1.050 43 'Notre Dame' 1.049 44 'Arkansas' 1.046 45 'Miami (FL)' 1.043 46 'South Caro' 1.042 47 'Illinois' 1.041 48 'Ohio' 1.038 49 'Virginia Tech' 1.009 50 'Georgia' 1.008 51 'Northern Ill.' 1.008 52 'Pittsburgh' 1.004 53 'Oregon St.' 1.003 54 'Boise St.' 0.999 55 'Kansas St.' 0.984 56 'North Caro.' 0.981 57 'Nebraska' 0.981 58 'Kentucky' 0.979 59 'Utah' 0.976 60 'Bowling Green' 0.973 61 'Duke' 0.973 62 'Arkansas St.' 0.969 63 'Clemson' 0.968 64 'Mississipi St' 0.964 65 'Colorado' 0.957 66 'Tulane' 0.955 67 'Cincinnati' 0.954 68 'Florida' 0.951 69 'Vanderbilt' 0.951 70 'Troy' 0.950 71 'UTEP' 0.948 72 'Rice' 0.947 73 'TCU' 0.941 74 'La.-Monroe' 0.941 75 'South Ala.' 0.940 76 'Syracuse' 0.937 77 'East Carolina' 0.936 78 'Fresno St.' 0.934 79 'West Virginia' 0.933 80 'North Car St.' 0.931 81 'Iowa' 0.925 82 'Virginia' 0.913 83 'UTSA' 0.901 84 'Boston College 0.894 85 'Kansas' 0.889 86 'UAB' 0.885 87 'Western Ky.' 0.879 88 'Texas' 0.876 89 'Memphis' 0.871 90 'UTSA' 0.869 91 'San Jose St.' 0.864 92 'Wake Forest' 0.855 93 'New Mexico' 0.855 94 'Fla. Atlantic' 0.851 95 'Middle Tenn.' 0.849 96 'Colorado St.' 0.849 97 'Nevada' 0.844 98 'La.-Lafayette' 0.837 99 'Toledo' 0.826 100 'UNLV' 0.825 101 'Army' 0.820 102 'Tulsa' 0.807 103 'California' 0.794 104 'Eastern Mich.' 0.788 105 'Louisiana Tech 0.776 106 'Air Force' 0.775 107 'Kent St.' 0.774 108 'Hawaii' 0.774 109 'Southern Miss. 0.766 110 'Purdue' 0.755 111 'Akron' 0.747 112 'Idaho' 0.747 113 'SMU' 0.746 114 'Western Mich.' 0.735 115 'Miami (OH)' 0.729 116 'Iowa St.' 0.729 117 'Buffalo' 0.718 118 'Central Mich.' 0.716 119 'Temple' 0.712 120 'Connecticut' 0.705 121 'New Mexico St' 0.676 122 'San Diego St.' 0.641 123 'Massachusetts' 0.598 124 'South Fla.' 0.579 125 'FIU' 0.565 126 'Georgia State' 0.475
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Sep 15, 2013 18:20
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Mukai Moon Poll, Week 4: #GoACC Edition What more can I say? FSU, Maryland, (Louisville) and GT all in the top 10. This is madness, also known as an early season objective poll that doesn't use an initial seed of the prior year's results. Other hallucinatory quirks: Wyoming is in the top 25, and this is real. Missouri is higher ranked than Alabama, Minnesota is a top 25 team, Texas State is ahead of Texas, Memphis is higher rated than Boise State, and Clemson is inexplicably below Florida, Rutgers, Virginia Tech, and Ball State. The author has no defense for these, but expects that at the end of the season he will dredge this set of mysteries out and point to one with a cackling, gibbering laugh as the madness overtakes us all. pre:Rank Team Rating 1 'LSU' 1.275 2 'Louisville' 1.250 3 'Missouri' 1.223 4 'Oregon' 1.222 5 'Alabama' 1.219 6 'Florida St.' 1.219 7 'Texas Tech' 1.219 8 'Maryland' 1.212 9 'Georgia Tech' 1.201 10 'UCLA' 1.201 11 'Oklahoma St.' 1.188 12 'Michigan' 1.168 13 'Ohio St.' 1.165 14 'Baylor' 1.164 15 'Washington' 1.163 16 'Stanford' 1.155 17 'Penn St.' 1.153 18 'Oklahoma' 1.150 19 'Wisconsin' 1.146 20 'Georgia' 1.146 21 'Minnesota' 1.146 22 'Southern Cal' 1.136 23 'UCF' 1.135 24 'Washington St. 1.135 25 'Wyoming' 1.128 26 'Utah St.' 1.126 27 'Auburn' 1.123 28 'Northwestern' 1.120 29 'Texas A&M' 1.107 30 'Ole Miss' 1.105 31 'Navy' 1.105 32 'Arizona' 1.104 33 'Mississippi St 1.085 34 'Ball St.' 1.084 35 'Houston' 1.077 36 'Miami (FL)' 1.065 37 'South Carolina 1.065 38 'Virginia Tech' 1.065 39 'Syracuse' 1.064 40 'Utah' 1.063 41 'Notre Dame' 1.061 42 'Florida' 1.057 43 'Rutgers' 1.056 44 'Clemson' 1.055 45 'Michigan St.' 1.054 46 'Illinois' 1.045 47 'Pittsburgh' 1.044 48 'Indiana' 1.043 49 'Arkansas' 1.042 50 'Ohio' 1.033 51 'Marshall' 1.020 52 'Arizona St.' 1.019 53 'Nebraska' 1.016 54 'UTSA' 1.013 55 'Oregon St.' 1.004 56 'Memphis' 1.004 57 'Boise St.' 0.993 58 'Vanderbilt' 0.983 59 'Kentucky' 0.979 60 'Bowling Green' 0.979 61 'Iowa' 0.979 62 'BYU' 0.975 63 'North Carolina 0.975 64 'Cincinnati' 0.974 65 'North Texas' 0.965 66 'Duke' 0.964 67 'Tennessee' 0.960 68 'Fresno St.' 0.952 69 'Texas St.' 0.951 70 'Texas' 0.947 71 'Rice' 0.939 72 'East Carolina' 0.939 73 'Virginia' 0.934 74 'Colorado' 0.932 75 'TCU' 0.930 76 'Nevada' 0.926 77 'Middle Tenn.' 0.923 78 'South Ala.' 0.921 79 'Wake Forest' 0.921 80 'Toledo' 0.921 81 'Kansas St.' 0.910 82 'Northern Ill.' 0.910 83 'Boston College 0.905 84 'Western Ky.' 0.903 85 'UAB' 0.901 86 'Kansas' 0.888 87 'La.-Monroe' 0.872 88 'UTSA' 0.867 89 'UNLV' 0.867 90 'West Virginia' 0.852 91 'North Car. St. 0.852 92 'San Jose St.' 0.848 93 'La.-Lafayette' 0.844 94 'Colorado St.' 0.828 95 'Tulane' 0.827 96 'Massachusetts' 0.824 97 'Arkansas St.' 0.824 98 'Troy' 0.821 99 'UTEP' 0.820 100 'New Mexico' 0.819 101 'Tulsa' 0.799 102 'Fla. Atlantic' 0.797 103 'California' 0.791 104 'Southern Miss. 0.764 105 'Louisiana Tech 0.747 106 'Army' 0.740 107 'Air Force' 0.737 108 'Eastern Mich.' 0.737 109 'Kent St.' 0.736 110 'Buffalo' 0.725 111 'Purdue' 0.722 112 'Iowa St.' 0.715 113 'Akron' 0.714 114 'Temple' 0.714 115 'SMU' 0.710 116 'Connecticut' 0.705 117 'Miami (OH)' 0.694 118 'Hawaii' 0.693 119 'Idaho' 0.692 120 'New Mexico St. 0.652 121 'Western Mich.' 0.652 122 'Central Mich.' 0.643 123 'San Diego St.' 0.641 Notional 1-AA Team: 0.600 124 'South Fla.' 0.573 125 'FIU' 0.557 126 'Georgia State' 0.440
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Sep 22, 2013 16:09
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Mukai Moon Poll, Week 5: Starting To Look Sane Edition Given that my method is also almost only looking at margin of victory- just with home/away included- it shouldn't be a surprise that mine and Von Trapp's have a lot in common; I would GUESS that maybe accounting for location would bring us even closer into agreement and if I corrected for numbers of games played (e.g. the difference between Trapp having UCLA high and me having it at 18 is probably that htey played 3 games instead of 4) but aside from that it's likely just minute differences in algorithm! pre:Rank Team Rating 1 'Alabama' 1.308 2 'Stanford' 1.279 3 'Oregon' 1.250 4 'Washington' 1.229 5 'Florida St.' 1.228 6 'LSU' 1.222 7 'Missouri' 1.207 8 'Oklahoma' 1.204 9 'Ohio St.' 1.200 10 'Maryland' 1.196 11 'Texas Tech' 1.185 12 'Georgia' 1.183 13 'Houston' 1.180 14 'Texas A&M' 1.175 15 'Virginia Tech' 1.174 16 'Arizona St.' 1.165 17 'Utah St.' 1.150 18 'UCLA' 1.146 19 'Wisconsin' 1.145 20 'Clemson' 1.141 21 'Iowa' 1.140 22 'Florida' 1.134 23 'South Carolina 1.124 24 'Louisville' 1.117 25 'Michigan' 1.112 26 'Texas St.' 1.109 27 'Georgia Tech' 1.099 28 'Oregon St.' 1.095 29 'Ball St.' 1.085 30 'Miami (FL)' 1.085 31 'Illinois' 1.079 32 'Baylor' 1.078 33 'East Carolina' 1.078 34 'Penn St.' 1.075 35 'UCF' 1.066 36 'Vanderbilt' 1.059 37 'Mississippi St 1.056 38 'Syracuse' 1.055 39 'Ole Miss' 1.052 40 'Pittsburgh' 1.049 41 'BYU' 1.048 42 'Oklahoma St.' 1.048 43 'Boise St.' 1.047 44 'Michigan St.' 1.037 45 'Arizona' 1.034 46 'Marshall' 1.031 47 'Ohio' 1.013 48 'Southern Cal' 1.011 49 'Washington St' 1.010 50 'Auburn' 1.002 51 'Western Ky.' 1.001 52 'Minnesota' 1.001 53 'Utah' 1.000 54 'West Virginia' 0.998 55 'Northwestern' 0.996 56 'Tennessee' 0.995 57 'Notre Dame' 0.994 58 'TCU' 0.994 59 'Northern Ill.' 0.987 60 'Memphis' 0.984 61 'Wyoming' 0.977 62 'Arkansas' 0.975 63 'Rutgers' 0.968 64 'Bowling Green' 0.967 65 'Nebraska' 0.965 66 'Navy' 0.963 67 'Fresno St.' 0.955 68 'Rice' 0.950 69 'Duke' 0.950 70 'Texas' 0.940 71 'Indiana' 0.935 72 'Virginia' 0.931 73 'Cincinnati' 0.930 74 'South Ala.' 0.928 75 'Nevada' 0.925 76 'Toledo' 0.924 77 'UNLV' 0.922 78 'Tulane' 0.917 79 'Kentucky' 0.905 80 'UTSA' 0.897 81 'NC State' 0.895 82 'North Texas' 0.879 83 'Colorado St.' 0.875 84 'Kansas St.' 0.862 85 'Boston College 0.860 86 'Colorado' 0.855 87 'Wake Forest' 0.854 88 'Kansas' 0.848 89 'Army' 0.845 90 'Iowa St.' 0.841 91 'North Caro' 0.840 92 'Buffalo' 0.834 93 'La.-Lafayette' 0.831 94 'Middle Tenn.' 0.827 95 'Massachusetts' 0.823 96 'Kent St.' 0.811 97 'UAB' 0.805 98 'Arkansas St.' 0.803 99 'Troy' 0.801 100 'San Jose St.' 0.799 101 'Fla. Atlantic' 0.796 102 'California' 0.759 103 'La.-Monroe' 0.747 104 'Air Force' 0.738 105 'New Mexico' 0.736 106 'Eastern Mich.' 0.731 107 'San Diego St.' 0.721 108 'UTEP' 0.714 109 'Akron' 0.701 110 'Temple' 0.699 111 'Hawaii' 0.696 112 'Southern Miss' 0.692 113 'Tulsa' 0.681 114 'Idaho' 0.670 115 'Purdue' 0.652 116 'Louisiana Tech 0.651 117 'Miami (OH)' 0.650 118 'SMU' 0.649 119 'Central Mich.' 0.579 120 'Western Mich.' 0.574 121 'Connecticut' 0.570 122 'New Mexico St' 0.564 123 'South Fla.' 0.555 124 'FIU' 0.553 125 'Georgia State' 0.444 pre:SEC 1.100 PAC-12 1.069 Big 10 1.028 ACC 1.026 Big 12 1.000 MWC 0.878 AAC 0.872 Independent 0.847 Sun Belt 0.833 MAC 0.822 CUSA 0.819
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Sep 29, 2013 23:12
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Mukai Moon Poll, Week 6 Turns out when you massacre an undefeated team on the road, an ELO-based system flips its wig and gives you ALL THE POINTS, ALL OF THEM as a reward. I'm not sure Maryland was that good, but in absence of evidence to the contrary it's hard to argue with FSU #1. Missouri #2 we'll just pass over in silence, though. The rest of the top 25 looks pretty good, though! pre:Rank Team Rating 1 'Florida St.' 1.330 2 'Missouri' 1.297 3 'Alabama' 1.292 4 'Oregon' 1.290 5 'LSU' 1.289 6 'Stanford' 1.266 7 'Oklahoma' 1.231 8 'Clemson' 1.224 9 'Ohio St.' 1.215 10 'Washington' 1.206 11 'Texas Tech' 1.202 12 'Georgia' 1.196 13 'Michigan' 1.189 14 'Florida' 1.183 15 'Virginia Tech' 1.174 16 'Baylor' 1.171 17 'Miami (FL)' 1.169 18 'BYU' 1.168 19 'UCLA' 1.162 20 'Michigan St.' 1.154 21 'Louisville' 1.142 22 'Ball St.' 1.139 23 'Arizona St.' 1.114 24 'South Carolina 1.113 25 'Marshall' 1.090 26 'Nebraska' 1.082 27 'East Carolina' 1.082 28 'Texas A&M' 1.081 29 'Wisconsin' 1.079 30 'UCF' 1.078 31 'Maryland' 1.077 32 'Indiana' 1.070 33 'Notre Dame' 1.066 34 'Ohio' 1.059 35 'Auburn' 1.058 36 'Houston' 1.057 37 'Oklahoma St.' 1.046 38 'Western Ky.' 1.045 39 'Washington St' 1.042 40 'Georgia Tech' 1.034 41 'Pittsburgh' 1.024 42 'Iowa' 1.024 43 'Bowling Green' 1.022 44 'Utah St.' 1.020 45 'Northern Ill.' 1.015 46 'Boise St.' 1.015 47 'Ole Miss' 1.012 48 'Tennessee' 1.009 49 'La.-Lafayette' 1.001 50 'TCU' 1.000 51 'Oregon St.' 0.999 52 'Navy' 0.996 53 'Fresno St.' 0.993 54 'Vanderbilt' 0.990 55 'Utah' 0.986 56 'Mississippi St 0.982 57 'Rutgers' 0.974 58 'Southern Cal' 0.968 59 'Toledo' 0.965 60 'Boston College 0.964 61 'Northwestern' 0.957 62 'Syracuse' 0.956 63 'Illinois' 0.946 64 'Arkansas' 0.946 65 'Texas' 0.945 66 'Memphis' 0.945 67 'Wyoming' 0.943 68 'Penn St.' 0.941 69 'Wake Forest' 0.934 70 'Duke' 0.934 71 'Rice' 0.931 72 'Buffalo' 0.917 73 'Minnesota' 0.915 74 'Texas St.' 0.913 75 'Kentucky' 0.912 76 'South Ala.' 0.908 77 'Tulane' 0.908 78 'UNLV' 0.906 79 'Arizona' 0.904 80 'West Virginia' 0.897 81 'North Texas' 0.891 82 'Fla. Atlantic' 0.885 83 'Virginia' 0.878 84 'Kansas St.' 0.870 85 'Colorado St.' 0.863 86 'Middle Tenn.' 0.842 87 'North Carolina 0.838 88 'Nevada' 0.836 89 'Iowa St.' 0.835 90 'UTSA' 0.827 91 'North Car St.' 0.826 92 'Troy' 0.824 93 'Colorado' 0.813 94 'San Jose St.' 0.813 95 'Kansas' 0.808 96 'Arkansas St.' 0.803 97 'San Diego St.' 0.801 98 'Cincinnati' 0.799 99 'Army' 0.779 100 'Massachusetts' 0.776 101 'New Mexico' 0.775 102 'Kent St.' 0.766 103 'La.-Monroe' 0.724 104 'Air Force' 0.715 105 'UAB' 0.709 106 'California' 0.708 107 'Louisiana Tech 0.695 108 'South Fla.' 0.694 109 'Tulsa' 0.679 110 'Temple' 0.675 111 'Central Mich.' 0.675 112 'Akron' 0.667 113 'SMU' 0.649 114 'UTEP' 0.646 115 'Eastern Mich.' 0.644 116 'Purdue' 0.641 117 'Hawaii' 0.637 118 'Southern Miss' 0.626 119 'FIU' 0.626 120 'Idaho' 0.622 121 'Connecticut' 0.581 122 'Western Mich.' 0.541 123 'Miami (OH)' 0.532 124 'New Mexico St. 0.489 125 'Georgia State' 0.439
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Oct 6, 2013 14:51
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I find it surreal that all three of us have Alabama #3.
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Oct 6, 2013 18:50
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Mukai Moon Poll Week 7: Missouri Winning Was Not An Upset Edition It's that time of year: The time I get to start crowing about getting things right! Always a special, special day in the heart of any moon-poller. Missouri vs. Georgia? I had Missouri by 3! Wisconsin-Northwestern? I had Wisconsin by 9.5! I'm... not sure how BYU is in the top 10 now, actually, that seems a bit hinky. But this is a time of CELEBRATION or something! On to the stats, and then I have the first Special Treat of the season. pre:1 'Oregon' 1.379 2 'Missouri' 1.354 3 'Alabama' 1.317 4 'Florida St.' 1.316 5 'LSU' 1.300 6 'Clemson' 1.230 7 'BYU' 1.203 8 'Texas Tech' 1.193 9 'Michigan St.' 1.185 10 'UCLA' 1.179 11 'Baylor' 1.177 12 'Virginia Tech' 1.174 13 'Stanford' 1.170 14 'Florida' 1.163 15 'South Carolina 1.162 16 'Wisconsin' 1.148 17 'Ball St.' 1.147 18 'Georgia' 1.147 19 'Arizona St.' 1.145 20 'Louisville' 1.138 21 'Miami (FL)' 1.133 22 'Washington' 1.132 23 'Oregon St.' 1.125 24 'Michigan' 1.112 25 'Ohio St.' 1.100 26 'Texas' 1.099 27 'Nebraska' 1.096 28 'Texas A&M' 1.094 29 'Utah' 1.092 30 'Marshall' 1.084 31 'Boise St.' 1.079 32 'Auburn' 1.074 33 'Maryland' 1.074 34 'Houston' 1.070 35 'Oklahoma' 1.063 36 'Notre Dame' 1.057 37 'Duke' 1.050 38 'Indiana' 1.034 39 'East Carolina' 1.031 40 'Western Ky.' 1.031 41 'Pittsburgh' 1.027 42 'Iowa' 1.026 43 'Oklahoma St.' 1.020 44 'Bowling Green' 1.014 45 'Ole Miss' 1.006 46 'TCU' 1.004 47 'Northern Ill.' 1.004 48 'Georgia Tech' 1.003 49 'Syracuse' 1.001 50 'Penn St.' 0.995 51 'Fresno St.' 0.989 52 'Mississippi St 0.984 53 'UCF' 0.984 54 'La.-Lafayette' 0.982 55 'North Texas' 0.974 56 'Tulane' 0.966 57 'Boston College 0.965 58 'Southern Cal' 0.965 59 'Rice' 0.955 60 'Tennessee' 0.954 61 'Rutgers' 0.949 62 'Utah St.' 0.946 63 'Memphis' 0.945 64 'Wake Forest' 0.939 65 'Ohio' 0.930 66 'Buffalo' 0.929 67 'Toledo' 0.927 68 'Wyoming' 0.925 69 'Washington St' 0.917 70 'UNLV' 0.913 71 'Vanderbilt' 0.913 72 'Minnesota' 0.907 73 'Illinois' 0.904 74 'West Virginia' 0.897 75 'Arizona' 0.890 76 'South Ala.' 0.890 77 'Virginia' 0.888 78 'Northwestern' 0.882 79 'Kansas St.' 0.881 80 'Kentucky' 0.878 81 'Fla. Atlantic' 0.878 82 'Arkansas' 0.876 83 'San Jose St.' 0.872 84 'Navy' 0.858 85 'Arkansas St.' 0.847 86 'Army' 0.832 87 'Iowa St.' 0.832 88 'Troy' 0.829 89 'La.-Monroe' 0.827 90 'Cincinnati' 0.824 91 'North Carolina 0.822 92 'San Diego St.' 0.816 93 'Kansas' 0.809 94 'UTSA' 0.808 95 'Central Mich.' 0.793 96 'Texas St.' 0.790 97 'North Car St.' 0.784 98 'Colorado St.' 0.783 99 'Colorado' 0.779 100 'Massachusetts' 0.776 101 'Nevada' 0.775 102 'New Mexico' 0.771 103 'Middle Tenn.' 0.763 104 'Kent St.' 0.762 105 'Tulsa' 0.717 106 'UAB' 0.713 107 'South Fla.' 0.697 108 'Louisiana Tech 0.690 109 'California' 0.685 110 'Air Force' 0.675 111 'Akron' 0.657 112 'SMU' 0.648 113 'Hawaii' 0.643 114 'Temple' 0.626 115 'Purdue' 0.624 116 'Southern Miss' 0.614 117 'FIU' 0.607 118 'Eastern Mich.' 0.580 119 'Connecticut' 0.574 120 'Idaho' 0.573 121 'UTEP' 0.569 122 'Miami (OH)' 0.533 123 'Western Mich.' 0.511 124 'New Mexico St. 0.483 125 'Georgia State' 0.439 AAC: Louisville* (12-0), Houston (10-2) ACC: Florida State* (13-0), Miami (11-2), Clemson (10-2), Virginia Tech (10-2) Big Ten: Michigan State* (12-1), Ohio State (11-1), Wisconsin (10-3), Michigan (10-2) Big 12: Baylor* (11-1), Texas Tech (10-2) CUSA: None Independents: None MAC: Ball State* (12-1) (this is not a typo) MWC: None (still not a typo; I'm not at all high on Fresno/Northern Ill.) Pac-12: Oregon* (13-0), UCLA (10-3) I am calling a Stanford collapse, because god their schedule is tough SEC: Alabama* (13-0), LSU (10-2), South Carolina (11-2), Missouri (11-1) Sun Belt: None So for BCS seedings, Alabama-Oregon is the #1-#2 game because I don't see FSU or Louisville leapfrogging either- though that set of outcomes would be delicious controversy. FSU is slotted automatically into the Rose, Baylor into the Fiesta, and Michigan State into the Rose. Including the #1-#2 replacements, BCS bowls are: NCG: Alabama-Oregon Sugar: (first pick)-(fourth pick) Rose: Michigan State-(second pick) Fiesta: Baylor-(fifth pick) Orange: Florida State-(third pick) Sugar grabs South Carolina as the most 'national' SEC 11 win team, screwing Missou a bit. For the second pick, UCLA barely scrapes into qualification, and the Rose snaps them up. The Orange has to choose between an undefeated Louisville and a super-mega-TV draw Ohio State, and this goes the way most of these picks go, OSU and mad TV dolla. Sugar takes Louisville. Fiesta has to choose between a lot of not great options; they basically can take one of the ACC also rans or Houston, since I don't expect Ball State to climb into the top 14. Miami it is! NCG: Alabama-Oregon Sugar: South Carolina-Louisville Rose: Michigan State-UCLA Fiesta: Baylor-Miami Orange: Florida State-Ohio State From there, the other bowls slot in with some wonkiness, but anything that allows Virginia Tech-Texas A&M in the Peach Bowl is a scenario I desperately want to happen; Manziel's Last Stand against a Bud Foster defense makes me start grinning madly. Full Bowl Projections are Here!
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Oct 13, 2013 21:29
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kayakyakr posted:Do you have a 10-2 TTU team in the Big XII #4 bowl? That seems... odd. Yeah, but I figured bowls would sooner chase the BIG NAMES BIG BUCKS and so had Oklahoma and Texas going to better bowls with worse records.
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Oct 13, 2013 21:43
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In the best telemarketing tradition, BUT WAIT! THERE'S MORE! from the Mukai Moon Poll. Using the predictions and the remaining schedule for each of the 15 remaining undefeated teams, I came up with an estimate of how likely each current unbeaten record is to remain that way! Keeping in mind that this moon poll cannot see things like "Missouri's starting QB is gone", it should give a pretty good handle on just how hard it is to go undefeated even when you get halfway there. pre:Oregon 26.7% Louisville 24.5% Missouri 19.1% Florida State 15.2% Alabama 13.3% Texas Tech 11.1% Baylor 7.8% Clemson 6.9% Northern Ill. 4.7% Fresno State 3.9% Houston 3.5% Ohio State 3.0% Miami (FL) 0.6% UCLA 0.5% -------------------- Nobody 21.3% Only One team 35.7% Mukaikubo fucked around with this message at 15:24 on Oct 14, 2013 |
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Oct 14, 2013 15:20
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Mukai Moon Poll, Week 8: Ten Teams Are Still At 1-AA Level or Worse Edition ...four of which this poll wouldn't favor *at home* against a generic 1-AA team.  FSU's beatdown of Clemson predictably shot them into the top; if there's one thing it loves, it's one good team wrecking another. Alabama finally relinquishes its deathgrip on #3, staying behind Missouri- again, this rating cannot adjust for dead QBs or injuries or anything like that. Arizona State shoots up to grab a top five spot over Stanford on the back of a dominant win, and BYU- WHAT ARE YOU DOING BYU GET OUT OF HERE *chases the midmajors away with a broom* pre:1 'Florida St.' 1.382 2 'Oregon' 1.377 3 'Missouri' 1.376 4 'Alabama' 1.342 5 'Arizona St.' 1.248 6 'Stanford' 1.222 7 'LSU' 1.214 8 'Baylor' 1.212 9 'BYU' 1.208 10 'Wisconsin' 1.187 11 'Texas Tech' 1.183 12 'Michigan St.' 1.178 13 'Virginia Tech' 1.151 14 'Michigan' 1.149 15 'Oregon St.' 1.140 16 'Miami (FL)' 1.139 17 'Ball St.' 1.138 18 'Florida' 1.130 19 'Ohio St.' 1.130 20 'Auburn' 1.126 21 'Clemson' 1.123 22 'Texas' 1.111 23 'Georgia Tech' 1.105 24 'UCLA' 1.102 25 'La.-Lafayette' 1.092 26 'Oklahoma' 1.091 27 'Ole Miss' 1.083 28 'Boise St.' 1.077 29 'Notre Dame' 1.077 30 'Duke' 1.074 31 'Fresno St.' 1.072 32 'Georgia' 1.071 33 'Oklahoma St.' 1.070 34 'Houston' 1.065 35 'South Carolina 1.065 36 'Marshall' 1.059 37 'Texas A&M' 1.056 38 'Wake Forest' 1.046 39 'Northern Ill.' 1.044 40 'Louisville' 1.038 41 'East Carolina' 1.038 42 'UCF' 1.037 43 'Washington' 1.037 44 'Nebraska' 1.027 45 'Iowa' 1.014 46 'Utah St.' 0.997 47 'Tennessee' 0.997 48 'Arizona' 0.988 49 'Buffalo' 0.987 50 'Indiana' 0.986 51 'Utah' 0.986 52 'Vanderbilt' 0.983 53 'Southern Cal' 0.975 54 'North Texas' 0.973 55 'Pittsburgh' 0.968 56 'Rice' 0.960 57 'Ohio' 0.951 58 'Mississippi St 0.945 59 'TCU' 0.944 60 'Western Ky.' 0.934 61 'Bowling Green' 0.933 62 'Tulane' 0.926 63 'South Ala.' 0.923 64 'Colorado St.' 0.922 65 'Minnesota' 0.922 66 'Maryland' 0.921 67 'Washington St. 0.917 68 'Toledo' 0.916 69 'Penn St.' 0.908 70 'Boston College 0.908 71 'Kansas St.' 0.893 72 'West Virginia' 0.891 73 'Syracuse' 0.882 74 'Fla. Atlantic' 0.875 75 'Kentucky' 0.864 76 'Cincinnati' 0.855 77 'Navy' 0.851 78 'Virginia' 0.851 79 'Illinois' 0.850 80 'Arkansas' 0.849 81 'Colorado' 0.846 82 'UNLV' 0.846 83 'Northwestern' 0.841 84 'Arkansas St.' 0.841 85 'Troy' 0.830 86 'La.-Monroe' 0.829 87 'Rutgers' 0.825 88 'Memphis' 0.816 89 'North Carolina 0.810 90 'UTSA' 0.804 91 'Iowa St.' 0.801 92 'Kansas' 0.793 93 'San Jose St.' 0.790 94 'Texas St.' 0.787 95 'SMU' 0.776 96 'Nevada' 0.769 97 'Temple' 0.768 98 'North Car. St. 0.764 99 'Wyoming' 0.753 100 'Central Mich.' 0.745 101 'Tulsa' 0.722 102 'Kent St.' 0.722 103 'San Diego St.' 0.717 104 'Middle Tenn.' 0.714 105 'Massachusetts' 0.712 106 'UAB' 0.710 107 'New Mexico' 0.702 108 'Army' 0.699 109 'South Fla.' 0.697 110 'Akron' 0.681 111 'Louisiana Tech 0.669 112 'California' 0.660 113 'Air Force' 0.658 114 'Hawaii' 0.638 115 'Purdue' 0.629 116 'FIU' 0.600 117 'Southern Miss' 0.585 118 'Idaho' 0.578 119 'UTEP' 0.569 120 'Eastern Mich.' 0.543 121 'Connecticut' 0.540 122 'Miami (OH)' 0.509 123 'Western Mich.' 0.504 124 'New Mexico St. 0.450 125 'Georgia State' 0.439 BCS projection: Teams Eligible for BCS (roughly 10+ wins for a major conference, 12+ wins for a midmajor) AAC: UCF (11-1*), Louisville (11-1) ACC: FSU (13-0*), VT (10-3), Clemson (10-2), Miami (10-2) Big 10: Michigan State (12-1*), Ohio State (11-2), Wisconsin (10-2), Michigan (10-2) Big 12: Baylor (11-1*), Texas Tech (10-2) CUSA: None Independents: None MAC: Ball State (12-1*) MWC: None Pac 12: Oregon (13-0*), Stanford (10-2), Arizona State (10-3) SEC: Alabama (13-0*), Missouri (12-1), Auburn (10-2) Sun Belt: None Autobids and #1-#2 make it: Fiesta: Baylor vs. (5th pick) Orange: FSU vs. (3rd pick) Rose: (2nd pick) vs. Michigan State Sugar: (1st pick) vs. (4th pick) NCG: Alabama vs. Oregon Sugar jumps on Missouri without hesitation, and similarly Rose grabs a 10-2 Stanford. The Orange has the first interesting choice. Since I don't expect a 12-1 Ball State to make the top 14, the field of viable choices are: UCF (must be picked by someone), Louisville, VT, Clemson, Miami, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Michigan, Texas Tech. Of those, the Orange goes for the biggest money matchup and grabs Ohio State. The Sugar, eying UCF and shaking its head, basically chooses between an ACC team and Texas Tech, and opts for Clemson to fill local seats. (I could and almost did argue myself into Miami.. we'll see how Clemson responds to the beatdown). That leaves the Fiesta with UCF. Fiesta: Baylor vs. UCF Orange: FSU vs. Ohio State Rose: Stanford vs. Michigan State Sugar: Missouri vs. Clemson NCG: Alabama vs. Oregon Remainder of projected bowls is here: Week 8 Bowl Projections. Some notable games: Texas-LSU Cotton Bowl Texas A&M-Miami Peach Bowl Northern Illinois-Notre Dame Little Caesars Bowl  And the final extracurricular, updated Going Undefeated Odds! That week helped a lot of teams out, none more than FSU which is approaching a coin flip to go 13-0. There's also almost a coin flip of either SEC team going 13-0 and locking up one slot in the NCG, which is probably underestimating things. I like Alabama significantly more than the numbers here do! Also, we're up to about a 1-in-3 chance of an undefeated BCS buster... and 11% odds of Chaos Year giving us no undefeated teams.  pre:Florida State 40.8% Missouri 29.3% Oregon 25.9% Fresno State 23.9% Alabama 18.6% Baylor 12.2% Northern Ill. 11.5% Texas Tech 9.6% Ohio State 8.5% Miami (FL) 0.4%
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Oct 20, 2013 17:37
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Mukai Moon Poll, Week 9: The Three Best Teams Are Finally My Three Best Teams Edition *cracks knuckles* Took you long enough to concur that Bama, Oregon, and FSU are the three best teams in the nation, MMP. Welcome to reality. Good thing there's nothing else screw- *looks at BYU #6, TEXAS #13, and Duke ranked above Texas Tech, vomits* pre:1 'Oregon' 1.404 2 'Florida St.' 1.388 3 'Alabama' 1.376 4 'Missouri' 1.253 5 'Stanford' 1.240 6 'BYU' 1.235 7 'Baylor' 1.233 8 'LSU' 1.224 9 'Michigan' 1.179 10 'Ohio St.' 1.179 11 'Auburn' 1.176 12 'South Carolina 1.174 13 'Texas' 1.173 14 'Arizona St.' 1.153 15 'Miami (FL)' 1.149 16 'Oklahoma' 1.144 17 'Ball St.' 1.144 18 'Clemson' 1.144 19 'Texas A&M' 1.142 20 'Houston' 1.131 21 'Duke' 1.129 22 'Florida' 1.122 23 'La.-Lafayette' 1.118 24 'Texas Tech' 1.115 25 'Georgia Tech' 1.107 26 'Ole Miss' 1.106 27 'Oklahoma St.' 1.103 28 'Virginia Tech' 1.093 29 'Oregon St.' 1.091 30 'Notre Dame' 1.087 31 'Michigan St.' 1.085 32 'Wisconsin' 1.076 33 'Fresno St.' 1.073 34 'Louisville' 1.065 35 'UCLA' 1.063 36 'Northern Ill.' 1.057 37 'UCF' 1.050 38 'Arizona' 1.046 39 'East Carolina' 1.044 40 'Wake Forest' 1.041 41 'Washington' 1.037 42 'Southern Cal' 1.035 43 'Boise St.' 1.035 44 'Iowa' 1.020 45 'Buffalo' 1.018 46 'Rice' 1.005 47 'North Texas' 0.999 48 'Minnesota' 0.996 49 'Kansas St.' 0.987 50 'Marshall' 0.985 51 'Utah St.' 0.985 52 'Georgia' 0.979 53 'Indiana' 0.976 54 'Tennessee' 0.969 55 'Toledo' 0.958 56 'Mississippi St 0.952 57 'North Carolina 0.950 58 'Ohio' 0.950 59 'Nebraska' 0.945 60 'Pittsburgh' 0.933 61 'Tulane' 0.930 62 'Colorado St.' 0.919 63 'Troy' 0.917 64 'Utah' 0.915 65 'TCU' 0.903 66 'Vanderbilt' 0.891 67 'Bowling Green' 0.889 68 'South Ala.' 0.889 69 'Maryland' 0.888 70 'Syracuse' 0.884 71 'Navy' 0.883 72 'UNLV' 0.871 73 'Western Ky.' 0.863 74 'UTSA' 0.863 75 'Penn St.' 0.856 76 'Kentucky' 0.856 77 'Virginia' 0.856 78 'Arkansas' 0.848 79 'Cincinnati' 0.846 80 'La.-Monroe' 0.844 81 'Northwestern' 0.839 82 'Washington St. 0.836 83 'Fla. Atlantic' 0.825 84 'Arkansas St.' 0.825 85 'Texas St.' 0.823 86 'SMU' 0.810 87 'Illinois' 0.807 88 'San Jose St.' 0.802 89 'West Virginia' 0.793 90 'Middle Tenn.' 0.793 91 'Boston College 0.792 92 'Colorado' 0.780 93 'Rutgers' 0.777 94 'Kansas' 0.773 95 'North Caro. St 0.766 96 'Iowa St.' 0.758 97 'Central Mich.' 0.751 98 'Nevada' 0.746 99 'Memphis' 0.746 100 'Wyoming' 0.739 101 'Louisiana Tech 0.729 102 'Temple' 0.727 103 'Tulsa' 0.719 104 'San Diego St.' 0.711 105 'New Mexico' 0.705 106 'Kent St.' 0.694 107 'Army' 0.690 108 'Akron' 0.678 109 'South Fla.' 0.656 110 'California' 0.643 111 'UAB' 0.641 112 'Hawaii' 0.639 113 'Air Force' 0.631 114 'Massachusetts' 0.626 115 'Purdue' 0.623 116 'Western Mich.' 0.592 117 'Idaho' 0.560 118 'UTEP' 0.557 119 'Southern Miss. 0.549 120 'Eastern Mich.' 0.527 121 'Connecticut' 0.525 122 'FIU' 0.520 123 'New Mexico St. 0.505 124 'Miami (OH)' 0.502 125 'Georgia State' 0.415 MMP Odds Of Going Undefeated Into Bowl Season, Week 9 FSU remains most likely to get to bowl season without a loss, but the Ducks are charging hard behind them. Meanwhile, nobody loves Miami. Poor Miami. pre:Florida State 44.4% Oregon 41.8% Alabama 32.7% Fresno State 31.0% Ohio State 20.7% Baylor 14.4% Northern Ill. 12.0% Miami (FL) 0.8% I'm actually moving them over to our Bowl Projections thread! ...but for old time's sake: Fiesta Bowl: Baylor-Fresno State Orange Bowl: Florida State-Louisville Rose Bowl: Stanford-Ohio State Sugar Bowl: Missouri-Michigan NCG: Alabama-Oregon
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Oct 27, 2013 22:19
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Mukai Moon Poll, Week 10: FSU Separation Edition Beat a good team decisively, get mad rating points. No mystery! Now FSU is #1 with a bullet in these rankings. More surprising is that Alabama is slipping, largely as an artifact of the teams they've beaten covering themselves in whatever the opposite of glory is. Also... BYU at #7 is, let's just not talk about it, okay? And also Houston outranking Baylor. I understand not why. pre:1 'Florida St.' 1.425 2 'Oregon' 1.323 3 'Missouri' 1.281 4 'Alabama' 1.251 5 'Michigan St.' 1.201 6 'Oklahoma St.' 1.195 7 'BYU' 1.193 8 'Ohio St.' 1.190 9 'South Carolina 1.185 10 'Auburn' 1.183 11 'Arizona St.' 1.180 12 'Clemson' 1.175 13 'Stanford' 1.165 14 'Texas' 1.164 15 'Wisconsin' 1.160 16 'Texas A&M' 1.137 17 'Southern Cal' 1.136 18 'LSU' 1.136 19 'Houston' 1.135 20 'Baylor' 1.133 21 'La.-Lafayette' 1.118 22 'Miami (FL)' 1.115 23 'Georgia Tech' 1.103 24 'Duke' 1.098 25 'Notre Dame' 1.093 26 'Ole Miss' 1.092 27 'Boise St.' 1.077 28 'UCLA' 1.071 29 'Fresno St.' 1.069 30 'Northern Ill.' 1.066 31 'Florida' 1.061 32 'Michigan' 1.061 33 'Ball St.' 1.045 34 'Arizona' 1.045 35 'East Carolina' 1.041 36 'North Texas' 1.040 37 'Georgia' 1.037 38 'Oklahoma' 1.036 39 'Kansas St.' 1.029 40 'Utah St.' 1.018 41 'Minnesota' 1.017 42 'Texas Tech' 1.012 43 'Louisville' 1.005 44 'Buffalo' 1.005 45 'Marshall' 0.996 46 'Washington' 0.996 47 'Virginia Tech' 0.991 48 'Oregon St.' 0.979 49 'UCF' 0.976 50 'Syracuse' 0.973 51 'Toledo' 0.960 52 'North Carolina 0.960 53 'Iowa' 0.953 54 'Rice' 0.946 55 'Indiana' 0.945 56 'Nebraska' 0.941 57 'Wake Forest' 0.938 58 'Mississippi St 0.934 59 'Tennessee' 0.933 60 'Pittsburgh' 0.930 61 'Ohio' 0.928 62 'Fla. Atlantic' 0.928 63 'La.-Monroe' 0.924 64 'UTSA' 0.905 65 'Boston College 0.891 66 'Kentucky' 0.891 67 'Cincinnati' 0.886 68 'Vanderbilt' 0.886 69 'Utah' 0.885 70 'Navy' 0.882 71 'Bowling Green' 0.880 72 'Colorado St.' 0.880 73 'San Jose St.' 0.880 74 'Penn St.' 0.861 75 'West Virginia' 0.860 76 'Arkansas St.' 0.856 77 'Northwestern' 0.848 78 'Western Ky.' 0.848 79 'Tulane' 0.835 80 'TCU' 0.835 81 'South Ala.' 0.834 82 'Texas St.' 0.832 83 'Arkansas' 0.827 84 'Troy' 0.810 85 'Virginia' 0.810 86 'Maryland' 0.801 87 'Illinois' 0.798 88 'Washington St. 0.796 89 'Middle Tenn.' 0.795 90 'SMU' 0.794 91 'UNLV' 0.783 92 'Rutgers' 0.779 93 'North Car St.' 0.760 94 'Colorado' 0.757 95 'Kansas' 0.755 96 'Central Mich.' 0.745 97 'Nevada' 0.739 98 'Wyoming' 0.739 99 'San Diego St.' 0.722 100 'Temple' 0.718 101 'Louisiana Tech 0.713 102 'Akron' 0.712 103 'Air Force' 0.709 104 'Iowa St.' 0.696 105 'New Mexico' 0.695 106 'Memphis' 0.690 107 'South Fla.' 0.660 108 'Kent St.' 0.646 109 'Tulsa' 0.646 110 'UAB' 0.644 111 'California' 0.639 112 'Purdue' 0.617 113 'Army' 0.616 114 'Hawaii' 0.608 115 'Massachusetts' 0.603 116 'Idaho' 0.537 117 'UTEP' 0.533 118 'Western Mich.' 0.530 119 'Connecticut' 0.524 120 'Southern Miss' 0.524 121 'FIU' 0.506 122 'Miami (OH)' 0.504 123 'Eastern Mich.' 0.504 124 'New Mexico St. 0.502 125 'Georgia State' 0.416 pre:Florida State 67.4% Oregon 47.0% Fresno State 28.5% Ohio State 23.9% Alabama 23.0% Baylor 23.0% Northern Ill. 19.3% FSU-Oregon NCG Ohio State-Alabama Rose Bowl  LSU-Texas Cotton Bowl And more!
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Nov 3, 2013 16:17
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