Register a SA Forums Account here!
JOINING THE SA FORUMS WILL REMOVE THIS BIG AD, THE ANNOYING UNDERLINED ADS, AND STUPID INTERSTITIAL ADS!!!

You can: log in, read the tech support FAQ, or request your lost password. This dumb message (and those ads) will appear on every screen until you register! Get rid of this crap by registering your own SA Forums Account and joining roughly 150,000 Goons, for the one-time price of $9.95! We charge money because it costs us money per month for bills, and since we don't believe in showing ads to our users, we try to make the money back through forum registrations.
 
  • Post
  • Reply
Femtosecond
Aug 2, 2003

pokeyman posted:


Ben Felix had a good video recently that talks about this and links to papers for further reading if you're interested: https://youtu.be/jN8mIHve1Ds

I really didn't follow at all the point here about "hedging costs of local consumption."

But yea seems like the justifications are mostly:
* Dividends are preferentially taxed (no 15% tax on withholding from the USA Gov)
* mildly lower fees on ETFs
* FOMO insurance in case we get a new Nortel.
* historical study says so

I'm not normally one to doubt the experts but my gut tells me that it doesn't add up and I should just put 100% of my money into the USA funds anyway lol.

I think the strongest point is around dividends and taxes, but dividends suck anyway. It could make sense to more significantly weight Canada if you're more retirement age and pivoting more into dividends.

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

Femtosecond
Aug 2, 2003

quote:

U.S. interest and dividend income earned in a Canadian registered account

Under the Treaty, there is a special exemption from U.S. withholding tax on interest and dividend income that you earn from U.S. investments through a trust set up exclusively for the purpose of providing retirement income. These trusts include RRSPs, RRIFs, LIRAs, LIFs, LRIFs and Prescribed RRIFs. They do not include RESPs, TFSAs and RDSPs. The special exemption is not currently available in any other tax treaty that Canada has with other countries. Therefore, interest and dividends you receive from investing in non-U.S. securities may be subject to foreign withholding tax. Certain types of U.S. investments you hold in an RRSP do not qualify for the Treaty exemption and will be subject to U.S. withholding tax. For example, if you hold a Canadian mutual fund or ETF that invests in the U.S. market in your RRSP/RRIF, there will be U.S. withholding tax on the dividends that you cannot recover.

https://ca.rbcwealthmanagement.com/documents/1647873/0/Tax+Implications+of+Investing+in+the+United+States.pdf

lol whoops uhhh it probably would have been better for me to move my S&P500 ETF RRSP holdings to a USD account back in 2022 when the dollar was at like .82 instead of .74...

Femtosecond
Aug 2, 2003

pokeyman posted:

What is your gut basing 100% USA on if not historical data? And "dividends suck", what? Aiming just for dividends doesn't usually make much sense because you're needlessly concentrating your investment. If you're not doing that then what do you care whether your return comes in dividends or buybacks or appreciation?

And why no ex-Canada ex-USA? That's like half of the global stock market you're leaving out because vibes. I mean, do what you want, but it's a free lunch you're passing up.

I can see the argument for going entirely ex-Canada stocks if you live and work here. Kind of the other side of the home bias hedging argument: you're already well exposed to the Canadian economy, so leave it out of your portfolio.

Also if you have savings in an unregistered account, tax treatment helps there.

Oh yea I was just knee jerk dismissing the historical data cited in the video because it seemed overly broad in scope to me, but yea like if there is like a real series of studies that point to the same thing, and especially if we're looking at narrower timelines well then I'm listening. I'm not like gonna deny the science if it's there, but there's just so many people trying to sell you on something in this space that I'm knee jerk skeptical to anything.

What I was getting at by "dividends suck" is what you said there like the stereotypical dividend hog investor that has a specifically dividend oriented portfolio, and these portfolios seem to often do much more poorly than others. So yeah don't do that (unless you're retiring).

But yea as the video says, if you're investing in like the S&P500 there's a lot of dividend companies in there (eg. Apple) and you are going to get dinged on withholding tax if you don't have the right ETF in the right instrument (as I posted above with my own example... whoops) and that will be some sort of drain on return.

Now this is hypothetically where having more beneficially taxed Canadian dividend stocks could help in reducing that drain on return. I think it would be interesting to actually look at a real numbers concrete example of this because every time I see someone mention this it's more handwavey hypothetical than I'd like.

(Now that I've established that whoops I am paying taxes I didn't think I was paying on my S&P500 ETF i'm going to have a look at see how much it actually is.)

ex-Canada ex-USA actually does make sense and something I do have. Remarkable thing in that video was the part that said how the 16 Danish companies out performed everyone lol. But yea it makes sense to weight it.

The one point from the video above about concerns around getting money out, it's not really a problem if you limit what you look at to our allies in Europe in particular.

Makes me wonder if people who invested ex-Canada ex-USA got dinged at all by Russia problems. Is Russia part of the emerging market ETFs or the European market ETFs?

Femtosecond
Aug 2, 2003

Is there an ETF for like "these companies don't do dividends just stock buybacks" as that would be the thing you'd want for a TFSA, setting aside the whole fact that you will narrowed your portfolio in a weird way by doing this and could be sub optimal for that reason.

Casual google reveals nothing.
Edit There's this but i dunno if it excludes dividend stocks https://www.invesco.com/us/financial-products/etfs/product-detail?audienceType=Investor&ticker=PKW

Lol Apple is one of the biggest buy backers and does dividends too.

Femtosecond fucked around with this message at 21:21 on Mar 16, 2024

Femtosecond
Aug 2, 2003

tragic_ethos posted:

Eh, I'm still generally of the mind that worrying about dividend withholding for US stuff is pretty marginal in terms of total gains. The current average yield of S&P 500 tickers is 1.84% per Google, it sucks to be sub-optimal obviously, but likely not worth much mental expense if we're talking a 0.2 to 0.3% loss each year (ie. taking a 30% withholding hit on US dividends rather than 15%).

That's always been my opinion too. The thought just popped into my head as I was typing the last post though. It would be interesting to see what it would look like as a thought experiment. I do expect it would be such a bespoke and particular group of companies that that aspect would dominate the trend on returns.

Femtosecond
Aug 2, 2003

pokeyman posted:

Skepticism is definitely good when it comes to personal finances.

I think this is the most comprehensive explanation of foreign withholding taxes I've seen, in case it helps at all https://canadianportfoliomanagerblog.com/part-i-foreign-withholding-taxes-for-equity-etfs/ It's one of many topics where I try to reframe it as "what am I willing to pay to not make my situation more complicated?" and so far I've been willing to pay for the simplicity of not exchanging US$, having someone else deal with rebalancing, etc. Someday it'll probably be worth it to me to complicate.

This is one of the papers cited in that video https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4590406 the tables in the appendix show e.g. the results of their simulations of varying levels of home country bias. And there's one showing how allocating various portions of a portfolio to bonds at retirement affects simulated results, if anyone's curious about that.

Good links thx.

edit: New Page.

Pls do your patriotic duty and buy Canadian stocks.

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

Femtosecond
Aug 2, 2003

I was wondering about this... like what happens if you mess up and accidentally over contribute but immediately realize it. Is everything ok if you quickly withdraw? lol

You'd think maybe, but then what about if there's a few months between when you over contribute and when you find out. I guess you're penalized by paying interest every month so are you only penalized the months you're over the limit?

I guess it's worse to over contribute in January and do nothing all year than it is to almost over contribute in January, do nothing all year, and then over contribute just over the line in Dec ?

  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
  • Post
  • Reply