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yronic heroism
Oct 31, 2008

AR can kinda still be a jag sometimes...

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yronic heroism
Oct 31, 2008

It's almost like we shouldn't let Nazis upend our legal system

They are going to abuse any process you can dream up, because they are Nazis

yronic heroism fucked around with this message at 06:07 on Oct 21, 2017

yronic heroism
Oct 31, 2008

Platystemon posted:

What if he says it’s a lie but you’re pretty sure it is actually the truth?

That sounds contrived, but bear with me. It could be something like “I can’t have murdered those kids at eight because that’s when I was banging my mistress”.

His mistress says that’s where he was and so does the clerk at the hotel across town. But he’s still telling you privately that it’s a lie and he would never cheat on his wife.

Well you as the lawyer can’t ask him questions about the affair when you know he will commit perjury about the affair.

He can testify in a narrative form without the lawyer asking questions though.

But you’re saying based on common sense he’s obviously lying to you about the affair but doesn’t admit he’s lying? See evilweasel’s answer, you don’t know for a fact he’s lying.

yronic heroism fucked around with this message at 07:03 on May 15, 2018

yronic heroism
Oct 31, 2008


I thought he looked that way because of BEER but that much Diet Coke explains it.

yronic heroism
Oct 31, 2008

Right wing Democratic court nominees like (checks notes) Sonia Sotomayor and Elena Kagan.

yronic heroism
Oct 31, 2008

nerve posted:

Didn't Obama nominate the gops pick for Scalia

No.

yronic heroism
Oct 31, 2008

Republicans will of course abuse their power on anything having to do with judicial appointments but it’s not like they run on “I will abuse my power” for the most part. They just lie or at best omit how they’re going to act. It’s like Susan Collins saying Roe v. Wade would be safe under Kavanaugh.

That’s why you’re probably not gonna see either party, even Republicans, promising to pack the court. Maybe it’ll happen at some point but why would they telegraph it ahead of time outside of the activist fringe?

yronic heroism fucked around with this message at 20:29 on Jul 17, 2020

yronic heroism
Oct 31, 2008

Groovelord Neato posted:

They already packed the courts.

Quibbling over the definition of court-packing vs “changing the number of judges/justices” is not what this is about.

yronic heroism
Oct 31, 2008

Probably they were a good way to nip budding Borks early once upon a time but obviously not anymore.

yronic heroism
Oct 31, 2008

Don’t overthink this. There will be a vote either before the election or during the lame duck and Democrats can’t stop it. They can only pack in response in 2021.

yronic heroism
Oct 31, 2008

mcmagic posted:

LOL that isn't happening.


What happens if the SCOUTS is 4-4 on that ACA case from the 5th circuit? Does that kill the ACA for the whole country or just that circuit's jurisdiction?

Hopefully if nothing else the Democrats win the Senate and would reinstate the “tax” provision and that would save the ACA for another few months until the next bullshit challenge works its way up.

yronic heroism
Oct 31, 2008

Kind of surprised Trump hasn’t nominated an evangelical Protestant yet.

yronic heroism
Oct 31, 2008

GreyjoyBastard posted:

that's not quite the (bad) scotus news, and it's not an accurate description of what happens if we (wrongly) end census enumeration tomorrow / next week and keep it ended

The current/yesterday state of affairs is that enumeration continues till October 31, or another three-ish weeks. The ideal is as close to 100% enumeration as feasible, and more time is good. Most states are pretty close to 100% right now, and most parts of most states are pretty close to 100%. This is due in large part to very good Census Bureau management, enthusiastic and motivated enumerators, a gigantic hiring push three ish months ago, and virtually unlimited overtime opportunities.

Unenumerated addresses are also not necessarily just marked vacant - they're fed into The Algorithm which, to massively oversimplify, fills them in with representative data proportionally to similar addresses in similar areas. This tends towards undercounting rather than overcounting for Various Pretty Good Reasons, but it is not a zero count outside of wacky edge cases.

The Supreme Court has not ruled Trump can stop the count early, but it has iirc removed the stay that prevented him from stopping it temporarily - and after October 31 he is in a much stronger position in stopping it entirely, which means that every lost day in the meantime is potentially permanently lost even if SCOTUS/the circuit aren't total assholes in their eventual ruling.

tldr: it's bad but it's not as bad as you might think

Are you sure about the algorithm part? I thought apportionment was strictly by enumerated people and the courts always said they gotta go by the count as a constitutional process (though it’s pretty high odds that gets changed 5-4 with Trump applying some other, non-enumerative data to determine who’s not a citizen.)

yronic heroism
Oct 31, 2008

I agree at this point the count is almost done no matter what but the fight will be in however the numbers can be manipulated by Trump and what a new Congress can do in response.

GreyjoyBastard posted:

tbf Thomas's position on why oral arguments are bunk and should be abolished is somewhat less crazy than all his other raving mad ideas

he thinks anything worth submitting can be submitted in writing and oral arguments are a big theatrical waste of time

and his theory would have deprived Ted Cruz of his treasured "Ted Cruz arguing before SCOTUS" portrait, so it's not entirely bad

This would be good in a world even 10-20 years ago but at this point it’s better that the non-Thomas fringe justices love to talk and will use these opportunities to tell on themselves.

yronic heroism fucked around with this message at 23:38 on Oct 13, 2020

yronic heroism
Oct 31, 2008

Right, but Texas didn’t get to gain any total seats from it, just redraw it’s own maps.

When I’m talking about Congress, it’s more about whatever action they can take on apportionment when Trump fucks around with citizenship. I’d be shocked if they ordered another census, and if they’ve got close counts where the raw counts can just be unTrumpified to remove skew that’s what will happen.

yronic heroism fucked around with this message at 08:44 on Oct 14, 2020

yronic heroism
Oct 31, 2008

ShadowHawk posted:

Can they be forced to though? Once a new census is conducted some of the existing districts may have newly known-unequal populations.

Probably impossible to do unless it’s a full census of everyone in the state (and country) because the point of the decennial census is to count everyone once (specifically where they lived on April 1st). Otherwise there’s no way to prove through enumeration that district B actually grew as fast as District A. So it’s not a matter of just counting a few areas where we know there’s rapid change in population or were just harder to count. There’s definitely reasons to do small-scale census-taking continuously to get as much data as we can but without some big legislative changes it’s not going to change apportionment and redistricting.

I guess re-reading your post you’re probably assuming a new national census but I don’t think that’s going to be anyone’s priority. There are about a hundred things that the Democrats can do that would be more politically advantageous and more impactful then literally counting everyone again with a fairly small marginal difference and a bunch of whining from people who “just filled it out last year.”

yronic heroism
Oct 31, 2008


We’re gonna find out who actually cares about textualism pretty quick. Also, few more of these and they’ll make the case for court-packing themselves.

yronic heroism
Oct 31, 2008

This is probably as much about the principal of hating immigrants as it is any actual apportionment difference for the administration.

yronic heroism
Oct 31, 2008

blackmongoose posted:

Delaware about to have 600 EVs

:golfclap: well played

yronic heroism
Oct 31, 2008

Jealous Cow posted:

https://twitter.com/AriBerman/status/1320883524954660867

This is insane and makes me worry SCOTUS is going to toss thousands of votes to throw the election to Trump.

Golly gee, it’s a good thing those state legislatures (and state courts) aren’t limited in what they “may” do by state constitutions or we’d have to pretend people calling themselves Federalists believed in the principles of federalism.

yronic heroism fucked around with this message at 06:45 on Oct 27, 2020

yronic heroism
Oct 31, 2008

Re: the Federalists, part of the asymmetry in the parties’ judicial selections is Democrats don’t have to mirror the Justice Taney fan club of the right because they just need to nominate people who are reasonable and not hacks and they historically get reasonable non-hack decisions. Whereas Republicans from Nixon through Bush I hoped for conservatives but until they had a foolproof ideological assembly line sometimes ended up with moderates who even moved further away from Republican nonsense over time. It became necessary for the right to create its own safe space legal ecosystem to sustain their judicial project.

Where the Democrats really go wrong is if they don’t pass judicial reform when we know what the Republicans would do in this situation. And Clinton in particular really appointed people who were too old. When everyone wants to sit for thirty-plus years, you gotta look at the actuarial tables.


tl; dr of course Republicans need a cult following to enact their will.

yronic heroism fucked around with this message at 13:13 on Oct 28, 2020

yronic heroism
Oct 31, 2008

jeeves posted:

I kinda see the Biden admin as a dead count bounce of any sort of Democratic rule in this country.

It’s going to be 6-3s on anything having to do with voting rights all the way down from now on.

Yeah, Roberts is real bad on voting rights. There really wasn’t going to be much left standing there once Kennedy retired.

yronic heroism
Oct 31, 2008

To be fair they’ve tried doing everything except winning more votes.

yronic heroism
Oct 31, 2008

ulmont posted:

While the guarantee of a republican form of state government has not been meaningfully defined by the Supreme Court, this might be an step too far.

In a 6-3 decision:

“No you see the founders couldn’t figure out spelling and capitalization and therefore they clearly meant a Republican Party government, in perpetuity.”

yronic heroism
Oct 31, 2008

galenanorth posted:

I hope they start selecting judges for willingness to retire early at the outset when they're nominated. It's not just RGB, but part of a longer trend among liberal appointees, who are more likely to value their career above outcomes

It probably hurts just as much or more that the RBGs were pretty old when nominated compared to everyone the Republicans put up. Wanting to be on the bench for 30 years is not as impactful for 45 year olds.

yronic heroism
Oct 31, 2008

VitalSigns posted:

You wouldn't have to, if Obama had declared the senate had consented to Garland, the new liberal court could confirm his constitutional reasoning in a 5-4 ruling

Takes the "what if Obama is an rear end in a top hat" factor right out of it

Get real. Nobody would buy this IRL including 4 justices plus the one additional who would have an obvious conflict of interest in hearing such a case.

And no, “Trump would try it” (and fail) isn’t a real argument especially when no one else has the same size authoritarian coalition as Trump.

yronic heroism fucked around with this message at 19:02 on Jan 27, 2022

yronic heroism
Oct 31, 2008

Piell posted:

Conflicts of interest pretty much aren't a real thing for the Supreme Court now

Yeah, no poo poo, Republicans are less ethical and it shows.

yronic heroism
Oct 31, 2008

VitalSigns posted:

Shows in their 6-3 majority

Aggressors will always have that kind of advantage over those showing more integrity. The four Democratic nominees who were in place in 2016 had the integrity not to play Calvinball with the rule of “Senate confirms or the nominee isn’t seated.” As would any credible Obama nominee. There’s no point howling at the moon that these people aren’t tankies who don’t care about rules, or Thomas clones who... don’t care about rules.

yronic heroism
Oct 31, 2008

If course, the real root of the problem goes way further back than the Obama admin or even Clinton, since Republicans controlled the presidency for 20 out of 24 years ending 1992, appointed ALL justices within that time, and only had a 5-4 court because the median range of American jurisprudential thought is way, waaay to the middle of Republican ideological though even circa the 80s.

yronic heroism
Oct 31, 2008

Kalman posted:

Dixiecrats (68-82) and Republicans (82-88) for most of it.

I was just going to point this out but this is much more succinct.

Of course, if the complaint is that Democrats need to be less deferential on nominations than before, obviously they’ve decided on that. The writing was on the wall once Feinstein got dethroned. And less Ds votes for Kavanaugh/Gorsuch than Rs for Sotomayor/Kagan.

yronic heroism
Oct 31, 2008

VitalSigns posted:

So Democrats from 68-82 and from 89-92

How did Republican justices get confirmed in those periods then. How did they even get a vote in the senate.

We already know how and know your thesis of Dems bad based on generations past. Most posters including me would agree they made shortsighted decisions, much like everyone who wasn’t rich and voted for Nixon/Reagan/Bush. So you’ve fired your zingers and made your point.

And me without my DeLorean.

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yronic heroism fucked around with this message at 22:56 on Jan 27, 2022

yronic heroism
Oct 31, 2008

Probably pack the court in the 80s with Baker/Dole’s blessings, so we would have ended up in the same place only faster.

yronic heroism
Oct 31, 2008

VitalSigns is forgetting that political movements that are, by nature, authoritarian and bad faith will always have a leg up. By their nature they are mostly first to the punch.

And no, Gore probably wouldn’t have won the Florida Supreme Court-ordered recount. Most methods of recounting had him behind. That’s what made the OG 5-4 decision a huge waste of energy as well as jurisprudence they didn’t even want to see cited in the future.

yronic heroism
Oct 31, 2008

The world in which the appointment arms race accelerated from 0 to 100 is one in which Republicans and Dixiecrats (who were functionally Republicans when you look at how they treated nominees by LBJ and Nixon) cause abortion to be illegal during every R administration, chuck out voting/civil rights legislation by the eighties at latest, and basically do everything they’re doing now much earlier, affordable care act is repealed by fiat under Trump. It’s way too pat to say “now they’re gonna do it anyway so doesn’t matter” because for people living under those past R administrations it mattered a lot. It’s easy to say here’s what should have been done but much harder to anticipate the consequences especially when 60 percent of people were voting for loving Reagan.


Kaal posted:

This is actually not the case. Historians agree that had the Florida court-ordered full recount been allowed to continue, rather than being stopped by the Republicans, Gore would have won the state. There were smaller recounts that had been occurring previously that would not have put Gore over the top (because they were missing pockets of uncounted Democrats), but the final one would have.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bush_v._Gore

https://www.nytimes.com/2001/11/12/us/examining-vote-overview-study-disputed-florida-ballots-finds-justices-did-not.html

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2000_United_States_presidential_election_recount_in_Florida#Florida_Ballot_Project_recounts

What the Florida courts were ordering was still going to keep Bush in the lead. Yes, there were other ways a count could have gone to Gore, but that’s not what was ordered, and if it eventually had been remember that Katherine Harris was the certifying official and an R Congress was meeting on 1/6/00 under the electoral count act.

yronic heroism fucked around with this message at 15:00 on Jan 28, 2022

yronic heroism
Oct 31, 2008


I mean all Republican nods at inclusion are basically this. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=rOYMFkFgPzk

Hawley just dresses it up in intellectual posturing and insecurity about never becoming president.

yronic heroism
Oct 31, 2008

Does anyone really think there is a law they can pass to bypass the electoral college which the Supreme Court would not invalidate?

yronic heroism
Oct 31, 2008

Fuschia tude posted:

They don't need to. States can assign electors however they want.

Except SCOTUS can review and rule on what the states and state courts do, as in Bush v. Gore.

yronic heroism
Oct 31, 2008

Evil Fluffy posted:

Pretty much. Obama could've said "nah Congress has sole authority on this matter and you don't get to ignore Amendments that you don't like so gently caress you and your ruling, the DOJ is going to continue enforcing the VRA in its entirety and if you don't like it feel free to retire from the bench" but that requires a POTUS who gives even the slightly gently caress about the country.

How do you imagine DOJ continuing enforcement?

yronic heroism
Oct 31, 2008

A little grousing in this thread is unavoidable since the person who nominated her is a Democrat, after all.

But yeah you can much more easily make the case she ruled against Lockheed since they (and some big shot plaintiff lawyers in line to make millions) were the ones who were asking her for a favor.

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yronic heroism
Oct 31, 2008

Evil Fluffy posted:


I know Clinton was trash but when the Bush v. Gore decision came down he should've sent the US Marshals to round up the SCOTUS, announce that their decision is non-binding, and for Florida's election system to continue its work. Instead like all worthless shitlibs he just shrugged and moved on with his life because he knew he'd spend the rest of his days rich and powerful so why put that at risk.

Why should Clinton have acted like an authoritarian? And why do edgy leftist goons have it in their headcanons that the (historically conservative) law enforcement/military institutions of the U.S. would back these Democratic presidents in this type of crisis?

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