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Pook Good Mook
Aug 6, 2013


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haveblue posted:

Harry Reid used a lesser nuclear option (tactical nuclear option?) when he got tired of republicans blockading sub-scotus judicial nominees. The filibuster was theoretically still in place for scotus nominees at that point, but it didn't come up in the remainder of Reid's tenure. McConnell then nuked that remaining case for Gorsuch and now the filibuster cannot be used on any nominee's confirmation to any post

Of course claiming Reid shares any blame for this requires that you also believe that absent his actions McConnell would not have done that anyway

Reid and McConnell were both right in eliminating it and didn't go far enough.

It's a loving legislative body. Make lawmakers own their nonsense. If moderates are serious about compromise it will also induce more negotiations across the aisle; if a bill is going to pass anyway, better work to get what you want in it.

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Pook Good Mook
Aug 6, 2013


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Rigel posted:

Both are not really a big deal and I wish we had either of these quaint and odd things instead of the Senate.

Generally, governor generals are purely ceremonial jobs, making appearances, signing things they are told to sign, and making speeches. Most of them hypothetically have real executive or judicial powers on behalf of the monarch, but in practice they do not do anything that the commonwealth doesn't want them to do, because they all quietly understand that the commonwealth could just decide its all stupid and stop pretending.

The power of the house of lords is basically just the ability to hit pause on specific legislation and go "wait a second, this law looks bad to us. Are you sure this is a good idea? Maybe you should think about it more, here's a suggested amendment." The house of commons can ignore the house of lords and eventually can get what they want if they don't mind a delay. (either one month or one year depending on the bill). If its absolutely critical that the bill is not delayed then I guess the house of lords might have leverage.

Doesn't the Commons generally know where the Lords will come out before it gets to them? Like it's very politically significant for there to be a delay at all, but they are never surprises?

Pook Good Mook
Aug 6, 2013


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Timeless Appeal posted:

.

It needs to be really remembered that the pendulum absolutely doesn't swing both ways equally in the case of abortion in that we did not go from one extreme to another. Casey is often cited as a neutering of Roe, but that's not entirely true . Roe was always a compromise and always gave a backdoor for states and even the federal government to legislate on abortion, but to not eliminate it entirely. And a lot of red states followed to this to the point of virtually eliminating abortion, and still were not satisfied. It really can't be overstated how relentless they are on this issue. Like if they just uniformly sought out a viability ban of anything past 25 weeks, I think most people would be on their side even if that would still negatively impact tons of people, but instead they need to die on the hill of forcing ten year old rape victims to have a baby.

I'm not trying to be an edgelord when I say I honestly appreciate the philosophical honesty of crazy regressive anti-abortionists. If you honestly believe abortion is murder, and the little clump of cells is a human, you should be against it in all cases.

It's the only actual consistent viewpoint they have, considering they're pro death penalty and against all forms of public assistance.

Pook Good Mook
Aug 6, 2013


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Never forget that the man most responsible for Thomas even being on the Court is Joe loving Biden. He had another woman ready to testify about similar allegations as Anita Hill and he chickened out because Conservative press was howling and he didn't want to be seen as "political" so he abandoned the testimony.

Pook Good Mook
Aug 6, 2013


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Epicurius posted:

Wouldn't the person most responsible for Thomas being on the Court be either George Bush, who nominated him, or the 52 Senators who voted for him, even after knowing about Anita Hill?

The President is going to make a political appointment based on ideology, and it was Biden's job to make sure Thomas got vetted and the other senators knew what they were voting for.

Pook Good Mook
Aug 6, 2013


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haveblue posted:

They aren't even bothering to disguise it this time.

https://twitter.com/patriottakes/status/1577442950044426240

LOL according to their logic he's an accessory to murder.

I know they're hypocrites and don't actually believe what they say.

Pook Good Mook
Aug 6, 2013


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VitalSigns posted:

Do any of these laws banning abortion make the man an accessory to murder if he pays for it, because if it's genuinely about protecting life yeah Walker should be in jail no different than if he paid for his girlfriend to hire a hitman.

Of course if it's just about controlling women then yeah sure make him a senator why not, can't blame a guy for wisely saving himself from being trapped into paying 18 years of child support.

Every state that does it are loving cowards. As far as I know none of them have sought to apply their murder statutes to performed abortions. They might have made it a crime, but none have actually gone the distance.

Pook Good Mook
Aug 6, 2013


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Rigel posted:

No. He has recently become very concerned about nuclear war and controversially suggested that Ukraine just give Russia most of what they want. The backlash was very severe. Elon is probably still worried about nuclear war and has also been sulking about the bad reaction his suggestion got. This stupid tweet is probably somehow related to that.

It's this. He got dumpstered on Twitter and is trying to change the subject.

Pook Good Mook
Aug 6, 2013


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Keep in mind it would be pretty much impossible to find a Dr. willing to perform an abortion after viability absent a medical emergency affecting the health or well-being of the mother and or fetus.

Like it fundamentally is such an outlier, it's why Republicans focus on it.

Pook Good Mook
Aug 6, 2013


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LeeMajors posted:

“Abortion” after viability is just a delivery induction. They aren’t yanking out a viable fetus and snapping its neck.

Typically they are dead, dying or suffering from catastrophic birth defects, and are provided as much care as is possible after delivery—palliative or otherwise. Otherwise it’s to protect the health of the mother, in which case it’s a premature induction and also receives maximal appropriate healthcare.

The discussion is *always* disingenuous because abortion is a loaded term and forced birth folks are not interesting in medical accuracy, they are working backwards from a policy goal.

Furthermore a loving lawyer or a local insurance salesman turned politician is not an expert and shouldn’t have any place in the discussion between the patients and their doctors.

To add to this, as I said some posts back, good luck finding a Dr. to perform a month 8 "abortion" of an otherwise viable fetus. As you put it, the procedure no longer resembles an abortion, it is a forced birth and then a murder. Late-term "abortions" are tragedies where there is no other medical alternative.

Pook Good Mook
Aug 6, 2013


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Stickman posted:

Naw, they just want to skip a potentially sane court lifting the injunction long enough for disbursement to happen.

There is no option for that left. The best Biden can hope for now is a circuit split, and that won't solve the problem, just make it worse.

Supreme Court is probably going to kill the program on the merits under "Major Questions" doctrine, but at least it will be an answer.

Pook Good Mook
Aug 6, 2013


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Rigel posted:

They should not have standing in any case, but if you were determined to find a way somehow to get through standing to reach the merits, I think DOE v Brown is probably the best way to get there. They may have reached down and grabbed this case and told them to brief it possibly because the standing issue in the other case they have is trickier and could cause more issues.

Briefly to answer your question though, the plaintiffs are people who did not qualify for the student debt forgiveness program and they are mad about that. (lol not really, they are probably republican assholes who agreed to be used for political reasons) Apparently the Biden administration did not follow all the administrative requirements for a regulatory change including a notice-and-comment period, etc. Basically the same poo poo that Trump's administration ignored or was too lazy to do which got a lot of his changes knocked down.

In this case the DOE is saying "wtf are you talking about, we are forgiving loans here. There are no people adversely impacted, this administrative requirement doesn't apply to us, we didn't need a comment period". The plaintiffs are arguing that had the administration followed the rules, they totally would have weighed in with their thoughts about how their loans also needed to be forgiven, and the administration can't just arbitrarily decide they didn't need to follow all the steps to implement this program.

This ultimately isn't a great route for the court if what they really wanted to do was to completely stop this forever though because Biden could just say "OK, fine. We'll start over, here's your comment period. Done? OK, your comments were stupid, we are going ahead with our plan now".

They're going to nuke it on "Major Question" grounds. The APA will be a footnote.

They are going to handwave the standing issue.

Pook Good Mook
Aug 6, 2013


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FlamingLiberal posted:

So in case you didn't believe before that one of the conservative justices leaked the Dobbs decision...

https://twitter.com/scotusreporter/status/1616154385389608962?s=20&t=GTHqOaX0t-vvXtUwj-2rnQ

Lol it's an open secret that Alito and Thomas brag about decisions at their dinner parties and to their donors

Pook Good Mook
Aug 6, 2013


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Dameius posted:

When you know the exact location of the leak you can exhaustively look everywhere else and say you can't find it.

Ya this is playing hide and seek with a toddler and making a big show of coming into their bedroom and ignoring their shoes sticking out from under their bed. "Oh how will I ever find Sam?! He hid so good!"

Pook Good Mook
Aug 6, 2013


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Gorsuch is the only "originalist" ever who actually believes the nonsense. I'd agree he is the only one you could reliably count on to "small government" his way into a half-decent outcome.

Kavanaugh was Kennedy's clerk and by all accounts has a huge love for him, but then he joined the majority in Dobbs. So don't let the media fool you. He has no issue with horrible regressive poo poo.

Pook Good Mook
Aug 6, 2013


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pencilhands posted:

Does anyone know what the big decisions likely to be coming down the pipe this summer will be?

The one that will get the most press is the student debt relief decision. Assuming the justices find a spurious reason to sidestep the standing issue (they will), expect them to kill the plan based on "political question" doctrine.

There is also the same loving Colorado baker who is always getting up to Courts of Appeal that has an interesting but probably not very wide-ranging decision coming down about private businesses and protected classes.

Otherwise, unless I missed a breakdown somewhere, nothing else that's set to upend society.

Pook Good Mook
Aug 6, 2013


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The whole posture of the case and factual claims are dubious, even if the plaintiffs survive a Motion to Dismiss. How they can factually show that the hosting of ISIS videos led to their family-member's death? It's is so laughably tenuous, I don't know how they survive a Summary Judgment.

Pook Good Mook fucked around with this message at 21:02 on Feb 21, 2023

Pook Good Mook
Aug 6, 2013


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Evil Fluffy posted:

SCOTUS 2023: rice pilaf from Louisiana ... is that like an ISIS video?

Because at the end of the day, the personal opinions of the justices is all that matters and multiple justices have been very open about wanting to see changes to how the internet operates and big tech in particular. Especially with the "Big Tech is silences Conservative voices" garbage from assholes who want to run rampant and force others to listen to them.

No I understand the broader picture reason it's in front of the Supreme Court. I was commenting on how tenuous the case itself is factually.

Pook Good Mook
Aug 6, 2013


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Vahakyla posted:

The justices sound skeptical about student loan relief but what the gently caress is it SCOCUS's lane if it's a trillion or not?


"A trillion dollars here, a trillion dollars there, doesn't make much difference to Congress"

Yeah so what? I don't care if it is a 69 gorillion dollars, the Congress wrote the law.
I know it's oral arguments and all and often it is just reading tea leaves, but goddamnit Alito's comment made me mad.

"Major question doctrine" is intentionally absurd the same way textualism is. It's only meant to sound good, it isn't meant to be consistently applied, it's just a shield to get to the result you want.

The more hypocritical part of today is the standing issue. They are almost certain to kill the suit by the two borrowers, their claim of injury and redress are laughably thin. But the states suit should be killed too before it even got to them. The only entity that arguably was affected was MOHELA, and as even Barrett pointed out, they weren't even there and Missouri was trying to bootstrap their own standing despite: the agency being legally independent, and the agency standing to make money to implement the forgiveness.

They are going to have to create a new standing doctrine to get to the actual merits and suddenly widen the amount of political lawsuits the federal courts will have to deal with.

Pook Good Mook
Aug 6, 2013


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Evil Fluffy posted:

The only conservative who seemed to have any issue with striking it down during recent arguments was Barrett and in her case it was because she doubts the plaintiffs have standing to bring the case to begin with (they don't, but the other 5 don't seem to care).

Barrett and Gorsuch seemed extremely skeptical of the 2nd case with the two borrowers and their standing and claims for relief. Gorsuch telegraphed that he also has a problem with the District Court's ruling that took two claims of injury and used it to nuke the whole program. The two borrowers claims are also ludicrous, arguing that even though we don't qualify, if they kill the program, they might try a new and magical program that maybe we can benefit from. That's WAY too far afield on the issue of redressability for even the lunatics on the SCOTUS. I got the feeling the second case was on there just to be killed.

The first case though is more iffy. Barrett was clearly skepitcal that MOHELA would even have standing, and if they did, why the hell aren't they there. The idea that a state can act on behalf of an autonomous entity that they don't have any statutory or funding oversight over was clearly iffy. And even Barrett pointed out that MOHELA stands to make money implementing the forgiveness.

IF the program survives, it will be on the standing question and it will be Gorsuch, Barrett, and maybe Roberts that rule the plaintiffs don't have standing. If they get over the hump to the merits however, there is no way that Roberts votes to save the program. He's in love with the "Major Questions" doctrine and this case is exactly the type of thing they had in mind when they invented it. I don't see how its any closer than 6-3 on merits.

The problem the Conservatives are going to have on the standing question is that either case will create a new class of plaintiffs. The first case with the states is more palatable, but it will still create an entirely new class of plaintiffs that will come pouring into federal courts.

Pook Good Mook
Aug 6, 2013


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Dopilsya posted:

I see that argument, but I disagree strongly with it. Just because a current Congress doesn't pass a new law doesn't say anything about the validity of an action under an old law passed by an old Congress. Plus it disincentivizes the President from trying to work through Congress which strikes me as bad.

If it's any consolation (it isn't to borrowers), you can once again lay you blame at feckless cowardly Democrats who could have passed this but didn't.

Pook Good Mook
Aug 6, 2013


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FlamingLiberal posted:

I mean we're essentially at the point where Dems are the ones refusing to break the filibuster and pass things that people want, and the courts are going to keep sending rights back to Congress where they will die and nobody will mention it again

They wouldn't have even needed to break the filibuster, they could have passed it in the budget bill through reconciliation.

Pook Good Mook
Aug 6, 2013


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Crows Turn Off posted:

I'm guessing the student loan case will be terrible too.

I'm less worried about the outcome, which we all know in advance, than how they can square getting to the merits with the completely spurious standing issue first.

Pook Good Mook
Aug 6, 2013


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Nice of Nancy Pelosi to provide a soundbite against cancellation that Roberts could use in his majority opinion. Democrats are loving worthless.

Pook Good Mook
Aug 6, 2013


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They conveniently gloss over that MOHELA isn't entitled to any money, it is contracted to service debt and gets fees through the contract. It's not entitled to any fees.

Pook Good Mook
Aug 6, 2013


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jeeves posted:

Gotta free up those spots for more rich kids that get accepted no matter what. Oops I mean legacy students. Got to keep that legacy up of us being a school for rich kids only.

Ya there's a reason private schools like Harvard want to performatively use race in admissions rather than use family income.

Pook Good Mook
Aug 6, 2013


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It's kinda refreshing for an affirmative action case to have actual victims, rather than aspirational failsons who are certain their whiteness is the real reason they couldn't get into UTexas or wherever.

Pook Good Mook
Aug 6, 2013


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Main Paineframe posted:

Given that the article itself quotes a conservative justice being openly skeptical of legacy admissions, I wouldn't be quite so quick to jump to this conclusion. In fact, the plaintiffs themselves contended that axing legacy admissions would be an effective way of improving diversity without engaging in directly race-based affirmative action policies, and Gorsuch's concurrence seemed quite receptive to that.


These isn't anything actionable about legacy admissions though. It is subject to rational basis review and will 100% survive that analysis.

Pook Good Mook
Aug 6, 2013


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Hieronymous Alloy posted:

Public vocational school and public college are both great ideas bit they won't solve the "all the jobs gone" problem we are heading towards as AI advances. We need UBI but the world ain't ready for that talk.

We are already at the point where most industrialized countries are rich enough that most people should never have to work.

Pook Good Mook
Aug 6, 2013


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rjmccall posted:


I personally agree with the concurrence: the mens rea standard for criminalizing threatening speech should be higher than recklessness, but this dude’s actions should not be understood purely as speech. Repeatedly contacting someone after being requested to stop is harassment, and it ought to be punishable as such even if you’re very slowly reading them the collected works of John Locke.

My counterpoint is that recklessness is enough. If someone isn't "insane" in the legal sense, but still "crazy" in the general public sense, they may truly not have the specific intent to cause alarm, intimidate, annoy, etc. It becomes a legit defense for a stalker to take the stand and say, "No, she loves me, she shook my hand after a book signing, we're meant for each other."

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Pook Good Mook
Aug 6, 2013


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hobbesmaster posted:

I think they’re trying to say that they would need to rule on an actual application of the law to determine if it’s cruel and unusual instead of hypotheticals?

Yes that's it exactly. The 8th Amendment can only really say that a prescribed punishment is generally unconstitutional (in other words, no mater who is convicted), or is specifically unconstitutional ("as applied" - this is generally what people are arguing about specific means of carrying out a death sentence).

Here, the city is providing fines or jail time. Those are NEVER going to be found generally unconstitutional, so the question is whether they are specifically unconstitutional. But in order for that to be true, the plaintiffs need to be able to point to something factual about how the law is actually enforced. In this case, the plaintiffs came in with an allegation that the law was passed and applied in order to target homeless people, but that's only an allegation at this point. There's been no fact-finding or statistics in the record about who the actual defendants have been.

So if the outcome of the Supreme Court argument is punting back to the district court for further fact-finding, that's why. They probably wouldn't be foreclosing on the possibility of ever ruling in favor of the plaintiffs.

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