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rafington
Aug 21, 2008
Who is going to vote for Kass over Trish? Definitely not Sarah or Morgan, Jeremiah/Jefra/Tasha seem unlikely, LJ was pretty close to Trish too. You can argue that flipping is a strong strategic move because it makes people want to take you to the final 3, but I don't think the jury is going to see it that way when Kass ruined half of their games.

e: most of the players also won't know this, but Trish's blindside of Cliff was a huge strategic move, IMO easily the biggest game changer so far outside of Kass flipping, and something that greatly improved her game. She has made fewer moves than Tony, but her moves have been just as big and a lot easier to justify.

rafington fucked around with this message at 02:41 on May 9, 2014

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rafington
Aug 21, 2008

Anonymous Zebra posted:

When Kass makes it to the F2 and then beats Tony due to bitter jury syndrome I am going to laugh so hard and hold it dear to my heart for as long as this show gets renewed. Because the degree at which posters here are riding Spencer's knob while completely making GBS threads on her game has reached hilarious levels at this point.

People have been predicting she would be gone since episode 2 on, and yet she remains.

I mean, people were saying after her first big flip that she traded in a guaranteed spot with her old alliance and was going to be voted off first be her new one, and yet...

EDIT: And now come about 5 posts arguing with me, but we'll see what happens soon.

If the jury is bitter, Sarah/Morgan/Jeremiah/Tasha/Spencer would be voting for Tony, and LJ/Jefra/Trish/Woo for Kass. I really don't understand why people think Kass has any shot at winning - the reason that her move was so dumb is that when you betray the majority, you lose if people vote on feelings, and you also probably lose if people vote on strategy. We might have an enlightened jury that respects the goat strategy, but I think people are just going to read it as a vindictive move and vote against her.

rafington
Aug 21, 2008

Vernacular posted:

She knew she had 0 chance of beating Spence or Tasha

I wonder if this is true, and I don't think Kass believed it. I might be misremembering but pre-flip she seemed pretty well liked. I think if she hadn't flipped and kept her mouth shut, she would have an acceptable social game, and she could've made some sort of play with 6-9 people left and won the jury over with strategy. And it's not like 11 was her only chance to eliminate Spencer/Tasha. Her position was actually really good for making it to the end: majority alliance, not a physical threat, not the most social, not an obvious leader of her alliance, and she could either vote out Spencer/Tasha or impress with strategy some other way.

rafington
Aug 21, 2008

Robnoxious posted:

Tony all ready said he's going to lie about the special idol being usable next Tribal.

Spence being a superfan should be able to sniff out that lie.

sportsgenius86 posted:

I think Tony understands that Spencer is the biggest threat left and that would take him to a final three regardless. Also, I have no doubts that if Tony doesn't win immunity, Spencer, knowing his fandom, is going to call out the no idols past F5 thing at Tribal.

I watched Cook Islands recently, which is to my knowledge the last time the super idol was in play, and they made no mentioned of when it could be played. That idol was playable at 4. If Spencer is a superfan, he has good reason to believe Tony's lie.

rafington
Aug 21, 2008

heybrother posted:

What was the first season they did final 3? Fiji?

Cook Islands I believe.

rafington
Aug 21, 2008

heybrother posted:

Ahh, I forgot Sundra existed for a hot minute.

Edit: was that done as a surprise?

I'd have to rewatch to be sure, but I remember it seeming like they knew. Other seasons, Micronesia in particular, they clearly did not know how many people would be at the final tribal. It's also notable that the idol was playable at 4 in Cook Islands, and that it seemed to be transferable, unlike the current version.

rafington
Aug 21, 2008

mancalamania posted:

Even if Kass did make it to the Final 3 with Tasha and Spencer (this never would have happened without significant opposition, by the way), does anyone really think she would win against either of those two? Even her "easy final 3" that she "threw away" was essentially a dead end for winning the game. Why not mix things up and see if a different path works out?

Why wouldn't she win against them? People keep saying that she would've lost anyways if she stayed with her alliance, but she seemed pretty well liked before the flip. If she stayed with her alliance, she could engineer blindsides and try to win based on being strategic, or possibly cut Spencer/Tasha at a later point and use Jefra or someone as a goat.

Keep in mind that she is the exact type of person who can make it to the finals by sticking with her alliance: she's not a physical threat, nor was she perceived as the clear alliance leader at the time, nor was she super personable like Tasha or Jeremiah or whoever, so she was at little risk of getting blindsided by her alliance or being targeted by idol plays. But either the goat strategy or late blindside moves still mean that she could win at a final tribal, IMO.

rafington fucked around with this message at 01:48 on May 18, 2014

rafington
Aug 21, 2008
Doesn't Jeff/tree mail always explicitly say when an immunity challenge is the final one? I remember in Micronesia that they only realized it was final 2 after getting tree mail for another immunity challenge, it seems like they just weren't paying attention at 4 to how the immunity challenge was worded. Someone might be able to correct me on this but I can't remember a final immunity challenge where it wasn't declared as final.

Ror posted:

I don't really understand the outrage about Woo winning, it's not like he just sat around all season. There are more interesting players left but some people and that article are making it sound like Survivor would hit a new low if he won. Maybe his style just seems less appealing in a season with a lot of overt 'gaming.'

I think I have to root for a Kass/Tony final on the basis of making the most entertaining TV pound-for-pound though.

I agree with this, did anyone really initiate meaningful moves post-merge except for Tony and Kass? Woo isn't a ringleader but I don't think he was nearly as much of a floater as we've seen in the past.

rafington fucked around with this message at 23:58 on May 18, 2014

rafington
Aug 21, 2008

Piell posted:

Woo is 100% a floater who bends with whoever he talked to last, he has no ideas of his own and exists only to be filled by other people's ideas. He's a chill guy but if nothing beyond that. That said, I'd rather him win than Kass, because at least he knows what he is, Kass is completely delusional.

I really disagree with this because Woo's situation is a lot different from floaters we've seen in the past. For one, Tony's idols make him harder/impossible to blindside, so Woo was kinda stuck with him, and Tony isn't particularly well-liked - it's not the same situation as Kim or Rob getting handed the million by people who refused to stop them. The other thing is that Woo hasn't been enabling Tony to make moves that only benefit Tony. The LJ blindside, in particular, strikes me as one that helps Woo as much as it does Tony. I hate watching floaters when they have constant opportunities to make a move and better their position, but I don't see those as much with Woo, and I find it hard to criticize someone for not making moves when staying the course is the best thing to do in their position.

rafington
Aug 21, 2008
If you have conflict with like 90% of the cast it's probably not them, it's you.

rafington
Aug 21, 2008

xbilkis posted:

What if they vote out Tony on the revote?

You can't vote for anyone except the people it's tied between.

rafington
Aug 21, 2008
I definitely agree because IMO the worst part about RI is the lack of reward challenges, a lot of strategy talk takes place there and it's always fun to watch the sore losers after they miss out on a reward.

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rafington
Aug 21, 2008
I guess with 9 pairs it's gonna be 1 on each tribe again? I thought 5 pairs on each tribe would've been a cool thing to watch this year, definitely increases the chances of having a lot of pairs intact going into the merge.

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