|
Lead out in cuffs posted:But sadly, yes, there are definitely the equivalent of Freepers. And yes, there are also whites who will, in polite (white) company, say that they want Apartheid back, and use horrific racial slurs. I don't think it's much worse than, say, the Deep South, but that's not saying much. They wouldn't say those things in public, though. I'd also guess that a lot of the people joining the AWB (or, say, voting for the Freedom Front Plus) would fall into that category. Why is Freedom Front Plus part of the ANC government?
|
#
?
Mar 1, 2014 20:20
|
|
|
|
| # ? Apr 27, 2024 10:42 |
|
|
Badger of Basra posted:Why is Freedom Front Plus part of the ANC government? They aren't? It's just that their leader got given the position of Deputy Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries after the last election. Zuma and Mulder are quite happy to tear into each other in public, and the FF+ has no formal coalition with the ANC. Unfortunately parliamentary votes don't seem to be available online, but I'm pretty sure the FF+ are quite happy to vote in opposition to the ANC. http://www.politicsweb.co.za/politicsweb/view/politicsweb/en/page71627?oid=128250&sn=Detail Politics Web in 2009 posted:Mulder dismissed the idea of a coalition between his party and the ANC. It probably had a lot to do with the fact that a good many commercial farmers are still Afrikaners. At the same time, commercial farmers, being beacons of wealth in a sea of rural poverty, tend to become victims of fairly horrific crimes (the term generally thrown around in SA politics is farm murders). Although there isn't a racial bias to them (wealthy farmers of other ethnic groups get targeted just as much), that hasn't stopped more nationalistic Afrikaners crying "genocide!". This has not been helped by there being an Apartheid-era protest song whose lyrics literally translate to "kill the farmer", which leftist radicals (notably Julius Malema) have been known to sing in public (and get charged with hate speech for doing). Zuma appointing the head of the party representing Afrikaner nationalists to a prominent position in the Department in charge of agriculture was most likely an olive branch. Farm murders is a touchy issue, which statistically speaking is somewhat of a non-issue. There's a Human Rights Watch report from 2001 which looks into the issue in depth. What it kinda boils down to (and I'm vastly oversimplifying) is that if commercial farmers would stop raping and beating their poor black workers, they would get treated a lot less horrifically when they were robbed. E: I also just realised you meant "government" in the UK parliamentary sense of "the executive". Although the South African parliamentary system is functionally very similar to that of the UK (being Westminster-based), we don't (AFAIK) tend to use that particular turn of phrase. More commonly we would just talk about the cabinet. Lead out in cuffs fucked around with this message at 06:07 on Mar 2, 2014 |
|
#
?
Mar 2, 2014 00:37
|
|
|
Good OP. During the last week or so, Helen Zille, leader of the opposition, seemed to have lost it completely. I think the DA will urgently have to rethink their leadership strategy. The DA's growing Zille headache The MG posted:Her latest fight was with journalist Carien du Plessis over a City Press article on the party's manifesto, which Zille alleges is factually incorrect and evidence of bias on Du Plessis's part. Zille also took issue with Du Plessis commenting on the hashtag "DA is a joke" on Twitter. What a fucknut. I personally can't fathom letting someone like that run for presidency. They've lost my (already grudging) vote.
|
|
#
?
Mar 3, 2014 14:23
|
|
|
Phaeoacremonium posted:Good OP. Yikes. Actually, one of the most annoying things about this for me is that it took nearly half an hour to track down the actual article she was complaining about. I think it's this one. While I get the impression that City Press can be a bit tabloid-ish, that seems fairly well researched and balanced. I really don't know why it got Zille so riled up, let alone spouting racist bullshit. Ugh, and she doubled down on it, too. Highlights include "Who cares if I piss off journalists? I don't need positive press. I've got Twitter!", and the unironic citation of Urban Dictionary.  This seems like a pretty good breakdown of what's wrong: Sisonke Msimang posted:For some time now, Zille has been on the ropes. She has mis-stepped badly on a number of occasions. Her hectoring tone, her harking back to old ways of understanding the world (progressive for then but hopelessly out of touch now), her mastery of new technology, seem desperate rather than relevant. I think what bugs me the most about the DA is looking at how slick (and obviously well funded) their manifesto launch was. I strongly suspect that they're getting a lot more private money than the other parties. And, unfortunately, we don't get to know, because SA electoral funding laws don't limit private funding or require its disclosure.  http://www.elections.org.za/content/Parties/Party-funding/ http://www.content.eisa.org.za/old-page/south-africa-political-party-funding
|
|
#
?
Mar 3, 2014 18:58
|
|
|
Phaeoacremonium posted:Good OP. Is "Missus class" a South African thing? Also, who will you be voting for if not DA (if that's not too personal)?
|
|
#
?
Mar 4, 2014 07:17
|
|
|
Badger of Basra posted:Is "Missus class" a South African thing? Also, who will you be voting for if not DA (if that's not too personal)? Yeah it is, it refers to a spoilt middle class white (Afrikaans?) woman in this context I guess. In the olden days (and probably still) black domestic staff would refer to their employers as the Baas and the Miesies. Regarding voting, I am pretty baffled tbh. I used to say that I vote out of spite. It worked like this: I'd vote DA in the provincials (Western Cape) because it made the ANC so desperately unhappy to lose it and I'd vote for every trendy alternative to the opposition in the nationals to spite the DA because I don't like their style of opposition and am not particularly impressed with their manifesto. It's always made me childishly happy to do so. In the last election there was no trendy alternative, so I had to go all blue (grudgingly, as I've mentioned). This time I was going to cheerfully throw away my vote on Agang, but they've already made a complete hash of things. I was leaning blue again, but now I couldn't possibly. So the long and short of it is that I don't know. I really like some of the younger DA leaders and I hope they'll take the party in a different direction from where it's been in the past ten years, but they're just way too young to rely on right now. Edit: I might just vote red for the hell of it (to spite the ancestors and the ANC in one fell swoop, hah), but I have issues with Malema and the fact that he's basically exploiting some really worthwhile policy ideas to try and keep the taxman and the law from his door. But he won't need my help, I'm pretty sure he's going to do really well anyway. Phaeoacremonium fucked around with this message at 07:43 on Mar 4, 2014 |
|
#
?
Mar 4, 2014 07:38
|
|
|
Badger of Basra posted:Is "Missus class" a South African thing? Also, who will you be voting for if not DA (if that's not too personal)? As far as I can tell from Google, "missus class" was created from whole cloth by Zille. Phaeoacremonium's explained what she meant by it, and what everyone understood, but it's definitely a new turn of phrase, and not one that I think is likely to catch on, since South Africa's wealthy elite is pretty racially diverse these days. It's a pity about Zille. One of the things the DA did get right under her leadership of the Western Cape Province was rules for the tender process to prevent nepotism. She also has strong struggle cred as a journalist who stood up to the Apartheid government. But she seems to be living far in the past in terms of race relations. That and some weird American/internet pop culture future. Phaeoacremonium posted:It worked like this: I'd vote DA in the provincials (Western Cape) because it made the ANC so desperately unhappy to lose it and I'd vote for every trendy alternative to the opposition in the nationals to spite the DA because I don't like their style of opposition and am not particularly impressed with their manifesto. It's always made me childishly happy to do so. Yeah, this has been pretty much my voting strategy. Independent Democrats in 2004, yes?   I think I once voted ANC in the provincial elections, but mainly because it was them vs the IFP, and they promised to sort out the Ulundi-Pietermaritzburg-as-capital of KZN kerfuffle. To be honest, the ANC aren't too far from where I'd consider voting, if I weren't deeply concerned about them having no strong opposition (and being deep in corporate pockets). Phaeoacremonium posted:Edit: I might just vote red for the hell of it (to spite the ancestors and the ANC in one fell swoop, hah), but I have issues with Malema and the fact that he's basically exploiting some really worthwhile policy ideas to try and keep the taxman and the law from his door. But he won't need my help, I'm pretty sure he's going to do really well anyway. Numsa are apparently considering forming a political party. It's too late for this election, and they're giving themselves a year to research it before they make any decisions, but maybe in 2016 or 2019 there'll be a real, union-based, non-populist, non-neoliberal workers' party.
|
|
#
?
Mar 4, 2014 08:05
|
|
|
Lead out in cuffs posted:Yeah, this has been pretty much my voting strategy. Independent Democrats in 2004, yes? ID 2004 buddy! It's a shame, because from a pure policy perspective I'd vote ANC like a shot if things were different. Unfortunately I can't. I can't bring myself to vote for a party that thinks it's a-okay to put a corrupt buffoon like Zuma up for election (nevermind re-election). My biggest pet peeve with them (aside from the obvious corruption and nepotism problems and their kak attitude in general) is that they failed to reform education despite having every opportunity to do so. That also ties directly into the failure of land reform and various other things.
|
|
#
?
Mar 4, 2014 08:23
|
|
|
So, not much happening this week. Rwanda got angry with SA for kicking out some of its officials after they kept trying to assassinate a former spook within SA borders The EFF are taking the IEC to court over R200,000 in fees they have to pay to participate in the elections, saying this is a barrier to participation for new parties. This is almost certainly a publicity stunt, since they've been reported to have more than R2 million to their name, and their legal fees are likely to cost more than that. Still, it's kinda legit in principle. The Mail and Guardian have released a nifty web app that lets you plug in your home address and see who your electoral ward voted for in 2009. Back home in Pietermaritzburg, it's about a 2:1 split between DA and ANC. In the Northern suburb I was staying in in Cape Town, far behind the Boerewors Curtain, it was more like 95% DA, with a smattering of COPE, FF+ and ACDP. Oh, and some silly hazing ritual by hopelessly naive girls at a boarding house at North-West University Potchefstroom had them briefly giving the Nazi salute (before some silly wiggle). Constitutionally speaking has a good breakdown of why (besides the obvious) this is not a good thing.
|
|
#
?
Mar 7, 2014 20:21
|
|
|
Lead out in cuffs posted:Rwanda got angry with SA for kicking out some of its officials after they kept trying to assassinate a former spook within SA borders
|
|
#
?
Mar 7, 2014 20:33
|
|
|
This thread looks incredible. I'm looking to self-reeducate after making a fool of myself trying to summarize current political tensions in SA in another thread. I leave myself in your capable, ANC-distrusting hands.
|
|
#
?
Mar 8, 2014 05:13
|
|
|
Minimum wage/nationalisation update: Widespread rebellion of its leftist allies finally prompts the ANC to start talking seriously about a national minimum wage. They plan to model the policy on China's. They're also talking about creating a national bank. Unions update: Numsa argue for staying in Cosatu, and potentially initiate a power grab within the union confederation. It's unlikely they'll succeed. Nonetheless, it's interesting to see how this plays out. Nuclear power update: Deal with Russia for nuclear power plants delayed by "intrigue". MG posted:Another source, who claims to have lobbied for the Russians, said that there is a difference between how Russia and South Africa operate. “When something’s done, the Russians believe it’s done, and they say it’s done. But they forget that here in South Africa we have something complicated called a democracy.” Sanitation and drinking water news: South African Human Rights Commission is launching a report on access to clean drinking water and sanitation tomorrow. Some hints as to what might be in it. Part of the problem seems to be that dirt-poor municipalities with no tax base aren't being provided with consistent funding from the national government. Instead the money comes through intermittent grants that tend to vanish through corruption. Lead out in cuffs fucked around with this message at 18:39 on Mar 10, 2014 |
|
#
?
Mar 10, 2014 18:36
|
|
|
So here in the US we have various fact-checking organizations such as PolitiFact, Factcheck.org, and the Washington Post fact checking page. All of them are considered pretty good and unbiased, except of course when lots of people disagree with their verdict on a particular statement. Is AfricaCheck.org as good and as independent? In fact, to build on that, if I want to follow SA news in general what's a good site that doesn't have a blatant political bias?
|
|
#
?
Mar 15, 2014 06:48
|
|
|
So far everything I've read on AfricaCheck has been solid, evidence-based and in-depth. They're independently funded, and that funding seems to mostly come in ways that aren't likely to have strings attached. They're also hosted at the University of Witwatersrand's journalism department; Wits is a very reputable university. For news, as I posted in the OP, the Mail and Guardian and IOL seem to be not too bad. There's also the publicly funded South African Broadcasting Corporation, modelled somewhat after the BBC. There are accusations of them being a government mouthpiece, but the fact that they're willing to report negatively on both the government and their own leadership suggests otherwise.
|
|
#
?
Mar 15, 2014 17:26
|
|
|
So who's anxiously awaiting the Nkandla report today? I don't know what her findings are going to be, but I have to say I admire Thuli Madonsela immensely. She has the biggest set of brass balls in SA politics.
|
|
#
?
Mar 19, 2014 08:53
|
|
|
The Haitian posted:So here in the US we have various fact-checking organizations such as PolitiFact, Factcheck.org, and the Washington Post fact checking page. All of them are considered pretty good and unbiased, except of course when lots of people disagree with their verdict on a particular statement. Is AfricaCheck.org as good and as independent? In fact, to build on that, if I want to follow SA news in general what's a good site that doesn't have a blatant political bias? Oh, also, ISS Africa is pretty amazing if you like reading and have a lot of time on your hands. One of their monographs I've read is Volk, Faith and Fatherland, a history of the extreme white right in South African politics. Phaeoacremonium posted:So who's anxiously awaiting the Nkandla report today? Holy poo poo, she certainly does. For those less familiar, Madonsela is the South African Public Protector. Her office is responsible for prosecuting political corruption. She had religious crazies praying for "demons" to be cast out of her office a few weeks ago for going after the head of the SABC. Anyway, from what I've read the report is pretty balanced, and mainly recommends tightening up procedures and ministers taking more responsibility for these kinds of projects. But some of that stuff, like sourcing money from an inner city renewal fund to build Zuma's mansion in the middle of nowhere? Yikes.
|
|
#
?
Mar 19, 2014 21:23
|
|
|
Phaeoacremonium posted:She has the biggest set of brass balls in SA politics. Have you seen the front page of the report?   The thing is massively long and I'm struggling to build up the energy to read the full thing but my lazy scrolling wound up on this graph:  If you're a masochist like me M&G have uploaded the full thing
|
|
#
?
Mar 19, 2014 21:29
|
|
|
Yeah as a Capetonian who has been here through both ANC and DA leadership of both the City and Province I can say that there is an appreciable difference in the quality of governing between the two. By almost every measure Cape Town and the Western Cape are doing better than the rest of the country and although I find myself disagreeing with a lot of DA policy, they keep getting my vote just by avoiding truly massive corruption and ineptitude to a degree that's staggering. The harm the ANC is doing with their eduction policies leaves me constantly wondering how people are not rioting in the streets constantly. When the education minister, Angie Motshekga has to be taken to court repeatedly (http://www.bdlive.co.za/opinion/columnists/2013/06/21/all-hail-equal-education) just to get a set of standards schools must meet published, you have to wonder what you have to do to be fired by the ANC. There doesn't seem to be any consequences to poor performance. There are, however, consequences to the kids suffering with this ineptitude though (http://mg.co.za/article/2013-04-17-sas-maths-science-education-ranked-second-last-in-world).
|
|
#
?
Mar 25, 2014 15:29
|
|
|
Spamtheman posted:The harm the ANC is doing with their eduction policies leaves me constantly wondering how people are not rioting in the streets constantly. Well, actually: ISS posted:According to the SAPS Incident Registration Information System (IRIS), police officers were deployed to monitor a total of 12 399 crowd-related events (34 incidents a day, on average) between April 2012 and March 2013. Most of these were public gatherings that had been given permission in terms of the Regulation of Gatherings Act 205 of 1993. However, as many 1 882 (15%) of these gatherings turned violent, resulting in 3 680 arrests. I think it's more over service delivery, though. It's easier to riot because you have no drinking water and may soon die of thirst than because your kids' education sucks. But yeah, education is hella depressing, not least of all because we spend a shitload of our GDP on it. A lot of it can be blamed on Apartheid, since education for black people was pretty lovely then. But the fact that it hasn't gotten better despite 20 years of money being sunk into it suggests that corruption and inefficiency are playing a role.
|
|
#
?
Mar 25, 2014 21:00
|
|
|
Lead out in cuffs posted:Well, actually: Actually a couple of high profile black intellectuals have come out saying that things are so bad now that the education being received by most poor black children is worse than it was under the apartheid bantu education system (http://www.citypress.co.za/news/bantu-education-was-better/). The relentless push to increase matric pass rates has meant that schools force children out before they get to matric and fail, less than half of children who start grade 1 finish school (there are also other socio-economic factors that influence this). The standards are also so bad that only 11% pass maths with more than 40% (http://www.ngopulse.org/article/education-south-africa-where-did-it-go-wrong). They had a whole province's text book supply cocked for more than half the year, to the point where they were taken to court repeatedly (http://www.bdlive.co.za/articles/2012/07/17/limpopo-at-fault-for-textbook-supply-fiasco). And the minister of education still has her job. This affects the poor disproportionately because wealthier parents simply send their children to private schools. The tragedy is that this leaves another generation behind who have no realistic way to join the economy. Spamtheman fucked around with this message at 23:17 on Mar 25, 2014 |
|
#
?
Mar 25, 2014 23:08
|
|
|
Spamtheman posted:Actually a couple of high profile black intellectuals have come out saying that things are so bad now that the education being received by most poor black children is worse than it was under the apartheid bantu education system (http://www.citypress.co.za/news/bantu-education-was-better/). Yeah ... that article's pretty terrible. The particular "black intellectual" they cite is a lecturer in business, not education, and makes some obviously false statements (like the claim that South Africa's education is the worst in Africa). The other expert they cite is professional Apartheid apologist Pik loving Botha. Note, when I say obviously false, I have read that WEF report cited in the Mail and Guardian story in your last post, the one that claims that maths and science education in South Africa is the second worst in the world. And guess what? It was a questionnaire, asking respondents (wealthy businesspeople, presumably) to rank their country's education. So for sure, South African businesspeople have the second-lowest opinion of their own country's maths and science education in the world, but that's almost certainly related more to the Gini coefficient than to any objective measure of the actual quality of that education. The PIRLS 2011 study, by contrast, seems to be an objective measure of literacy, which showed that things are bad, but not worst-in-the-world bad. Also, "black people were better off under Apartheid" is a classical cryptoracist canard, which instantly sets off my BS detectors. Bah, and I spent half an hour researching this, when Africacheck has done this already. They say pretty much the same things I did, just more expansively. Spamtheman posted:The relentless push to increase matric pass rates has meant that schools force children out before they get to matric and fail, less than half of children who start grade 1 finish school (there are also other socio-economic factors that influence this). The standards are also so bad that only 11% pass maths with more than 40% (http://www.ngopulse.org/article/education-south-africa-where-did-it-go-wrong). This is all pretty valid, though I would like to see statistics over time. Lead out in cuffs fucked around with this message at 06:41 on Mar 27, 2014 |
|
#
?
Mar 27, 2014 06:17
|
|
|
Just as a  headsup, I think it's Gini with a G.
|
|
#
?
Mar 27, 2014 06:25
|
|
|
Discendo Vox posted:Just as a Quite right, and fixed. Also, for reference, that is something which South Africa is among the world leaders for.
Lead out in cuffs fucked around with this message at 06:43 on Mar 27, 2014 |
|
#
?
Mar 27, 2014 06:41
|
|
|
Lead out in cuffs posted:Yeah ... that article's pretty terrible. The particular "black intellectual" they cite is a lecturer in business, not education, and makes some obviously false statements (like the claim that South Africa's education is the worst in Africa). The other expert they cite is professional Apartheid apologist Pik loving Botha. Not having read the report beforehand I assumed they had used some sort of actual analysis of objective quality. It seems they actually only measured the subjective impressions of members of several business organizations with a total of around 45 respondents. So not exactly the most thorough. I certainly wasn't suggesting that Pik Botha should ever be listened to, however Rabelani Dagada is actually involved in education which at least entitles him to have an opinion on the subject. Mamphela Ramphele has also made the same claim and she was vice-chancellor of UCT previously (http://www.citypress.co.za/politics/apartheid-education-better-ramphele/). That doesn't mean that they're right, just that things are bad enough that some are saying that the quality of the education received was better. Finally saying people were better off under apartheid, isn't cryptoracist, it's flat out racist.
|
|
#
?
Mar 27, 2014 09:45
|
|
|
For those who had been following the Nkandla story there have been a few interesting developments. First JZ starts saying that he shouldn't owe anything since he didn't ask for any of it, in direct contrast to the remedial actions suggested in the public protector's report (http://mg.co.za/article/2014-03-31-zuma-on-nkandla-i-didnt-use-state-funds). Then his response, which was due on the 2nd, has basically been to say that he will await the SIU (Special Investigative Unit, which reports to the presidency) investigation before making a full response, it should be done after the elections (http://mg.co.za/article/2014-04-02-zuma-to-comment-on-nkandla-report-once-siu-probe-is-done). In a completely innocent coincidence the SIU investigation into Nkandla was actually showing as completed on their website, luckily that error has been corrected. It also seems the DA is pushing to have the benefit to his assets taxed, they reckon he may owe R16 million on the place (http://www.timeslive.co.za/thetimes/2014/04/04/sars-sets-sights-on-zuma-after-nkandla-report). Spamtheman fucked around with this message at 11:06 on Apr 4, 2014 |
|
#
?
Apr 4, 2014 11:04
|
|
|
Yeah, it'll be interesting to see how it plays out, especially in terms of election timing (7th May). The SIU report isn't due until the end of May.
|
|
#
?
Apr 4, 2014 23:02
|
|
|
Happy Freedom Day everybody! Twenty years of every South African over the age of 18 having the right to choose their government, for good or ill (mostly good!) Twenty years of one of the best, most human rights-based constitutions in the world -- a constitution that gave us legalised gay marriage in the face of staunch social conservatism. Here's hoping for centuries more of strong democracy. 
|
|
#
?
Apr 27, 2014 09:25
|
|
|
So, some content: The ANC under Zuma has been turning really creepy in terms of the degree of control it exercises over its supporters and members. This story broke about a month ago, but hasn't been discussed yet, so... For the past year, the ANC has been running its own intelligence wing, called Project Veritas. Made up of ex-government spooks, it is tasked with vetting ANC parliamentary candidates, and presumably other projects. A likely candidate for those other projects would be their strict security at the ANC's upcoming final electoral rally, where every one of the 250,000+ attendees have had their details recorded, and "anyone who tries to disrupt or engage in booing will be dealt with harshly".
|
|
#
?
May 2, 2014 17:23
|
|
|
It's like a bad case of deja vu all over again. Between the project veritas stuff, using the national key points act (apartheid era security legislation) to try and cover up Nkandla, shooting protesters and mineworkers, the push for new secrecy laws and my personal favourite, rumours of a ministry of information (http://mg.co.za/article/2014-05-01-mac-the-mouth-to-oversee-zumas-legacy) it feels like watching and even more incompetent version of the old NP government. It's like watching a kid you knew growing up whose father was a little too quick to with the corporal punishment having kids of his own and being just as bad a parent. The hope is that the ANC sees enough of a drop in support in tomorrow's election that they realise they need to clean up their own act.
|
|
#
?
May 6, 2014 09:09
|
|
|
Why would a opposition party that wants to appeal to black voters choose a white woman as a leader? Perhaps as a European I am not capable of understanding how things are in South Africa. But I thought that there was still a lot of subdued resentment about Apartheid ( Why else would it be popular to sing “ kill the farmer”? ). It just seems like a really bad idea from purely tactical point of view to not have a black party leader. Tougths anyone?
|
|
#
?
May 6, 2014 17:35
|
|
|
Spamtheman posted:It's like a bad case of deja vu all over again. Between the project veritas stuff, using the national key points act (apartheid era security legislation) to try and cover up Nkandla, shooting protesters and mineworkers, the push for new secrecy laws and my personal favourite, rumours of a ministry of information (http://mg.co.za/article/2014-05-01-mac-the-mouth-to-oversee-zumas-legacy) it feels like watching and even more incompetent version of the old NP government. Yeah that cycle of abuse analogy is pretty apt. It bears remembering that this goes way back, though: Zuma was the ANC's chief spy from 1986 to 1993. This was the messiest time, when the NP's assassins and death squads were at their peak, and brutality was the norm on both sides. Although nothing has been specifically linked to Zuma, the ANC's counter-intelligence activities at the time were pretty nasty, involving torture, long solitary confinement, etc. For that matter, probably a better comparison for Zuma than the former NP government would be Vladimir Putin. Both were former (Soviet-trained) spooks turned democratically elected but creepily authoritarian politicians. http://www.anc.org.za/list_by.php?by=Jacob%20Zuma http://politicsweb.co.za/politicsweb/view/politicsweb/en/page71619?oid=117713&sn=Detail http://www.politicsweb.co.za/politicsweb/view/politicsweb/en/page71619/page71639?oid=119782&sn=Detail&pid=71639 http://www.politicsweb.co.za/politicsweb/view/politicsweb/en/page72308?oid=119782&sn=Marketingweb%20detail The good news is that it is extremely unlikely that the ANC will ever again have enough of a majority in parliament to unilaterally change the constitution, and the constitution gives a president two terms only, so one way or another, Zuma will be out of power five years from now. Baudolino posted:Why would a opposition party that wants to appeal to black voters choose a white woman as a leader? Perhaps as a European I am not capable of understanding how things are in South Africa. But I thought that there was still a lot of subdued resentment about Apartheid ( Why else would it be popular to sing “ kill the farmer”? ). It just seems like a really bad idea from purely tactical point of view to not have a black party leader. If you read the thread (like you should proofread your short fiction or your posts), you might see that the DA tried to form a coalition with Agang SA, to run with Mamphela Ramphele as their candidate, but that fell through. I think the DA is slowly but surely transitioning away from being a mainly white (and coloured) party to something more multi-racial. Their youth league and junior politicians are looking very much more racially representative than the top tier of the party. Whether they'll ever transition away from being a (neo)liberal party of the middle class is another matter, and they are probably doomed to be a minority party in the long term due to class rather than racial divisions. As to why they are running with Zille, specifically: she is a strong politician with a solid track record as Western Cape Premier (although some of her gaffes lately make me seriously doubt her character).
|
|
#
?
May 6, 2014 17:50
|
|
|
Baudolino posted:Why would a opposition party that wants to appeal to black voters choose a white woman as a leader? Perhaps as a European I am not capable of understanding how things are in South Africa. But I thought that there was still a lot of subdued resentment about Apartheid ( Why else would it be popular to sing “ kill the farmer”? ). It just seems like a really bad idea from purely tactical point of view to not have a black party leader. It is, but the DA is fairly limited in that aspect (because they don't have a lot of black membership). Between the coalition attempt and supposedly making moves to promote black party members to higher/more visible positions they're attempting to change that fact. As well, Zille was an anti-apartheid activist, so they're putting what they have to work with forward. For you plebes who didn't vote a week ago, keep in mind Dagga didn't make the ballot, so you're stuck voting for al Jama-ah.
|
|
#
?
May 6, 2014 21:15
|
|
|
Election results are starting to come in: http://www.news24.com/Elections/Results#map=live&level=prov
|
|
#
?
May 8, 2014 01:19
|
|
|
Thanks -- I'd checked that site about an hour ago and it wasn't live yet. Only 1.2 million votes counted so far, so anything could still happen, but the DA results so far are looking pretty high. Like, they might actually be heading towards being a credible opposition party high. I wonder if that's just an urban bias in getting votes counted earlier, though. E: Anyone care to prognosticate? Looking at results so far, I'd guess ANC around 60%, DA around 24-26%, EFF around 4-5%, NFP, IFP, COPE, FF+ and ACDP around 1-2% each. The EFF's showing is fascinating -- they haven't got a stronghold anywhere, though they're bringing in about 10% of the vote in Limpopo (Malema's home turf) and only about 1.5% in the Western Cape. But their 4.6% vote so far is fairly evenly spread across the country. If nothing else it will liven up parliament to have a few actual hard line socialists sitting in it. Also, while the DA will still only likely be sitting with around a quarter of the votes, that will make them the strongest national opposition party in the history of post-Apartheid South Africa (the runner-up being the NP in 1994 with 20% of the vote; arguably the DA are the continuation of the NP, of course). I'm not the biggest fan of the DA, but I am happy to see the country moving towards a more balanced party system. Lead out in cuffs fucked around with this message at 05:48 on May 8, 2014 |
|
#
?
May 8, 2014 02:39
|
|
|
Lead out in cuffs posted:Thanks -- I'd checked that site about an hour ago and it wasn't live yet. Western Cape is already looking like it's going DA again with big gains all around the country, they may win a few previously ANC municipalities and the local ANC branches will lose their poo poo. They ANC should take a bit more than 60% of the vote, but it's probably not enough of a dip to see any kind of meaningful change on their part. Agang are essentially chasing the same vote as the DA without having a track record so they'll be embarrassing. EFF will do well and COPE will suck even harder. I'm not really sure that it's fair to say that the DA are the continuation of the NP. Back in the day the day they were the party that white liberals good vote for and feel good about being anti-apartheid without actually having to go into a township or mingle with the ANC. The old NP members of parliament actually all ended up defecting to the ANC, which tells you more about the ANC than anything. I'm not saying that they maybe haven't received a lot of votes because they are mostly white candidates but that has changed these days. I suspect that most of the people who would have made a vote that way are either dead, left the country cause of the swart gevaar (black threat) or now vote FF+, there are far too many women and people of colour in the DA these days for them to be happy.
|
|
#
?
May 8, 2014 10:16
|
|
|
Spamtheman posted:Western Cape is already looking like it's going DA again with big gains all around the country, they may win a few previously ANC municipalities and the local ANC branches will lose their poo poo. They ANC should take a bit more than 60% of the vote, but it's probably not enough of a dip to see any kind of meaningful change on their part. On the other hand, it looks like the ANC is winning back a few DA municipalities. It's not too surprising, since the votes are so close in so many of them. It does kinda look like a lot of the COPE voters in the Western Cape have gone back to the ANC. Not that it matters at all (except for local government), because proportional representation. Overall, yes, the DA are looking like they're gaining about 8% of the vote more than last time. I suspect a lot of that will be from re-absorbing the ID vote, and a little from taking in COPE voters. I wonder if any substantial number of voters actually switched from ANC to DA? Spamtheman posted:I'm not really sure that it's fair to say that the DA are the continuation of the NP. Back in the day the day they were the party that white liberals good vote for and feel good about being anti-apartheid without actually having to go into a township or mingle with the ANC. The old NP members of parliament actually all ended up defecting to the ANC, which tells you more about the ANC than anything. I'm not saying that they maybe haven't received a lot of votes because they are mostly white candidates but that has changed these days. I suspect that most of the people who would have made a vote that way are either dead, left the country cause of the swart gevaar (black threat) or now vote FF+, there are far too many women and people of colour in the DA these days for them to be happy. Well, technically the DA is the alliance of the DP and the NP, but yeah I do remember that a lot of the NP MPs defected to the ANC. I think a lot of them ended up in the DA, too, though? And that really says a lot about the political situation, when the top two parties both contain elements of the apartheid government.
|
|
#
?
May 8, 2014 20:30
|
|
|
Also, the EFF look like they're doing slightly better than expected, at 5.5% of the vote. That's not bad at all for a party that was formed barely six months before the election. And, since they actually stand for something other than "we're the ANC but not the ANC", I don't think they're a one-trick pony like COPE was. It would be very encouraging if the next election started looking closer to a three-way split between the DA, ANC and EFF, and parties started talking electoral coalitions. I don't see the EFF allying with the DA ever, but maybe the IFP or NFP could choose sides?
|
|
#
?
May 8, 2014 20:40
|
|
|
Lead out in cuffs posted:It would be very encouraging if the next election started looking closer to a three-way split between the DA, ANC and EFF, and parties started talking electoral coalitions. I don't see the EFF allying with the DA ever, but maybe the IFP or NFP could choose sides? Well it looks like the IFP are seriously suffering based on the current poll results, the NFP split has not done them any favours - Looks like the DA are set to overtake them in KZN! Also, The DA are leading in Joburg but there are still plenty of votes to count, though they have already got more votes than they did in 2009.
|
|
#
?
May 8, 2014 20:49
|
|
|
OK, so election post-mortem: ANC victory with 62.15% of the national vote. DA at 22.23%, EFF at 6.35%. The ANC made slight gains in the southern half of the country, and slight losses in the Free State. They lost 6-10% of the vote in Gauteng, Limpopo, Mpumalanga and the North West Province compared to 2009. In Gauteng, the ANC lead narrowed down to 55% of the vote (from 65%). The DA made solid gains in the southern half of the country, and smaller gains in KZN and the north. Their showing wasn't as high as their internal polls suggested (22% vs 28% predicted by polls), but was still a massive gain from the previous 17%. The EFF did better than expected, with 6.35% of the vote. What's interesting is that, while their greatest support was in the northern regions (where they got 10% or more of the vote in most provinces), they received a portion of the vote country-wide. If they don't collapse in the next five years, Malema stays out of prison, and they can get a firmer backing from the unions (who are strongest in Gauteng), 2019 could get very interesting. Provinces to watch in future: Gauteng: the opposition vote this year was almost entirely accounted for by the DA (at 28.5%) and EFF (at 10%). If the EFF gets organised, the 2019 vote in that province could be a three-way DA/ANC/EFF split. Western Cape: the DA consolidated their majority this year, from 49% to 57%. The ANC actually slightly gained in votes, but most likely from the collapse of COPE, who took 8.4% in 2009. It's still close, and the ANC could theoretically come back, but it looks like the DA is there to stay. Saddest thing: The DA's results correspond very closely in many parts of the country with the proportion of the residents who are non-black. Maybe they'll be able to shake that by next election, cause it kinda puts a hard cap on the votes they can get. Yay, five more years of Jay-Zee
|
|
#
?
May 15, 2014 23:28
|
|
|
|
| # ? Apr 27, 2024 10:42 |
|
|
In other news, Numsa, freshly broken away from Cosatu and the ANC, are talking about striking in solidarity with the ongoing Amcu platinum workers' strike, and have confirmed they are going ahead with forming a labour party. It will be interesting to see how they interact with the EFF, who also seem to be trying to fulfil that role.
|
|
#
?
May 15, 2014 23:31
|
|