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Good meaty OP you got there, I was contemplating writing something up for the dormant Africa thread but  You forgot to mention the other new party Agang SA, another centrist party built around the reputation of anti-apartheid activist Mamphela Ramphele. They were considered a major player until recently. At the end of January they announced that they had agreed to merge with the DA, with Ramphele as the joint presidential candidate. Naturally this caused a big buzz, the DA have struggled to win Black voters in large numbers and an alliance with Ramphele could have made them into a real threat to the ANC in provinces the DA has historically been locked out of. Alas, It was all too good to be true and the merger collapsed. After 5 days. Naturally a lot of people were baffled by all of this, why exactly was the merge announced if it so fragile? It now appears the merger was masterminded by unnamed foreign donors who made it clear they would not bank roll both Agang and the DA, they wanted a united opposition to seriously threaten the ANC. With Agang being the younger party they were set to be isolated from the opposition donor base so they begrudgingly agreed to merge with the DA. It seems the bad blood between the leadership was a bit too much though and it all collapsed after a few short days. Ramphele is now a laughing stock and expectations for her party have been seriously downgraded. It goes to show though how hotly these elections are being contested, the ANC are weaker than they've ever been and the factionalism that has a tendency to split every opposition party in SA is finally being acknowledged as a liability by those challenging them.
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Feb 17, 2014 22:04
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A big part of this election is whether or not Zuma will survive as the leader of the ANC when the dust has settled, if the ANC loses a substantial number of votes the pressure to force him out will increase within the party. Zuma is immensely scandal prone and going into each one that has plagued his career would take far too long so instead I thought I would just type a bit about the ones that are still haunting the headlines (If you want to read about the ur-scandal of his career check out the wiki article for The Schabir Shaik Trial) Nkandla Jacob Zuma's private homestead is just outside Nkandla, a town in the Zulu heartland of KwaZulu-Natal. In 2009 the government announced that, following a state security assessment, they would be carrying out a series of security improvements that would cost around R28 million. In 2012 a report was published revealing that the cost had spiralled to over R203 million, this naturally sparked public outrage. Zuma defended the works saying they were necessary to met requirements for strategic installations under SA law and made statements before Parliament saying he was not aware of the specifics of the improvements. In late 2012 a Public Protector investigation was launched headed by Thuli Madonsela to look into the affair, the Department of Public Works also announced an investigation. In the middle of last year the Department of Public Works abruptly announced they would not be publishing their report, declaring it Top Secret. Following the announcement the government filed a court motion trying to block the publication of Madonsela's report, unsurprisingly there was a massive outcry and the government were forced to retreat a few days later. Shortly afterwards, ministers made statements saying that the media were forbidden from publishing any images of Zuma's homestead (as they compromised national security) and threatened legal action against any newspapers that did so. That lead to some rather memorable headlines:  Again the Government were forced to retreat, they said the statements had been misunderstood and the press had not been banned from publishing the images. Then, in late November of last year, the Mail & Guardian got their hands on a copy of Madonsela's provisional report and leaked the details. The report found that many of the improvements personally benefited Zuma; the upgrade's included a visitor's lounge, amphitheatre, cattle enclosure, housing for Zuma's relatives and (most infamously) a swimming pool that was justified as being a water store for firefighting purposes. As outrage grew the big question was whether Zuma was aware of the nature of the improvements, he had made statements to Parliament claiming he knew nothing of the details of the works and if it could be proven he lied then there would be sufficient grounds to impeach him. To counter calls for Zuma's resignation the government decided to publish the shelved Department of Public Works report which exonerated Zuma, it indicated he knew nothing of the details of the improvements. However, There is now a move to investigate the public works minister Thulsa Nxesi. His department's report had been classified Top Secret as it supposedly contained information that would endanger national security. Now that the report has been made public this does not seem to be the case. The allegations are that Nxesi deliberately misled parliament to suppress a document embarrassing to the administration - A motion to investigate Nxesi was tabled in Parliament yesterday by the DA so this scandal is still definitely not over. Guptagate On April 30th last year a private jet performed an unauthorized landing at Waterkloof Air Force Base, a military installation run by the South African Air Force. On board were passengers bound for the nearby wedding of Vega Gupta, a member of the incredibly wealthy and influential Gupta family who have widespread interests across various sectors of the South African economy (their exact personal wealth is a closely guarded secret). When details of the flight became public knowledge there was outrage, the SAAF had bent over backwards to accommodate the Guptas and had turned over a military installation to one of the wealthiest families in the country for their own private use. The government denied authorizing the landing and suspended figures in the police and military, an inquest was also launched to investigate the landing. The whole affair is incredibly embarrassing for Zuma. He has an immensely close relationship with the Guptas, one of his wives works for one of their companies as does one of his sons (his daughter also used to work for them and was hired shortly after Zuma became president). The press smelt blood in the water and launched a series of investigations into the Gupta family that yielded some startling results: the passengers were escorted from Waterkloof to the wedding by a private security firm who used flashing blue lights and false plates to masquerade as a police escort, the Guptas had demanded diplomatic passports from the SA government for their personal use, the Guptas sprawling Joburg estate had been deliberately undervalued to reduce their rates bill, the Guptas had helped Zuma's wife pay off a multi-million rand loan used to pay for a luxury mansion. Meanwhile at the inquest an SAAF officer gave evidence saying he was told in no uncertain terms by the Head of State Protocol that the landing had been authorized by the president. The government denied this, blaming the state official (who they claim was in collusion with a figure in the Indian High Commission) and demoted him - though it seems he is still drawing the same salary as he did in his former position. The inquest is still dragging on and prosecutions are still pending so this story isn't finished yet either. kustomkarkommando fucked around with this message at 15:42 on Feb 19, 2014 |
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Feb 19, 2014 15:40
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Lead out in cuffs posted:If nothing else, Zuma is also in his 70s. By 2019, he'll be 76, and quite possibly looking to retire from politics if the scandals don't catch up with him first. I'm guessing Cyril Ramaphosa is next in line, but I think his credit with the working class is pretty limited after Marikana. It seems almost certain now that Cyril is going to be the ANC's choice for deputy president after the elections at least. I'm still uncertain if the party will completely accept him as Zuma's replacement when he does decide to step aside, he is far too close to the business sector (Hell, he is the business sector) and he was only chosen as the deputy leader of the party after Motlanthe decided to challenge Zuma for the leadership. He is a popular figure but his years in the political wilderness means that he lacks a real base in the party, at the moment he is relying on the support of Zuma's faction but they might chose one of their own to fill the big chair (Zuma's ex-wife Nokosazan Dlamini-Zuma seems to be the favourite candidate among the KZN faction of the party). Malusi Gigaba was third on the leaked ANC candidates list so he might be able to angle himself into a more powerful position post-Zuma (deputy maybe?) - His youth and reputation as an energetic policy maker are definitely assets to the ANC and elevating him to the upper echelons may help them revitalize the image of the party. I'm curious who the anti-Zuma factions will coalesce around. Motlanthe seemed an obvious choice but he's declined nomination and seems to be set to retire after the elections, and Tokyo Sexwale looks dead in the water. Bizarrely, the Guateng branch of the party (often considered one of the most anti-Zuma factions) are trying to draft Mbeki for a parliamentary seat and Mbeki has picked up his public attacks on Zuma in recent months. A return of Mbeki would be a loving disaster so hopefully he will be sensible enough to steer clear of the leadership. quote:News from EFF: The EFF launched their manifesto today. Some other policies include a R12,500 minimum wage for miners (where have we heard that before?), abolishing contract work and temporary employment, establishing a government controlled company to produce pharmaceuticals, imposing strict import tariffs to stimulate the economy, doubling all social grants, increasing the salary of civil servants and introducing a minimum sentence of 20 years for corruption charges (cause you know Malema really hates corruption  ). They've also promised to provide all South Africans with electricity and running water within 5 years. You can't fault them for being ambitious...This thread needs some pictures so here's some photos from the EFF's manifesto launch:     Also the EFF would like to say Happy Birthday Mr Robert Mugabe: Economic Freedom Fighters posted:The Economic Freedom Fighters extends its revolutionary salutations to the People’s President Robert Gabriel Mugabe on his 90th Birthday. kustomkarkommando fucked around with this message at 21:28 on Feb 22, 2014 |
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Feb 22, 2014 21:13
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for Policy and Research, Floyd Shivambu, began
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Ardennes posted:I am interested in hearing the DA manifesto to see if it is also going to move leftward. The DA have launched their manifesto today and uploaded it to Scribd. Not much of a leftward tack. The main points (on a first read through) are expanding the Public Works program to create 7 million jobs, investing at least 10% of GDP in infrastructure development works, rolling-out a youth wage subsidy, breaking down government tenders into smaller units to allow small businesses to compete, a promise to tackle corruption (and save R30 billion in the process), employing 100,000 more police officers and transferring government controlled land in the ex-homelands to those that live on it. The more right-wing/liberal elements include a promise to break apart "inefficient" government monopolies, a promise to keep income and corporate taxes low, tax incentives for job creators, creating "Job Zones" with greater labour flexibility, reforming the labour laws to insulate small businesses from labour agreements hashed out at collective bargaining councils and a commitment to "democratise labour relations" by strengthening the position of small unions (and weakening the position of the larger ones in the process). On Black Economic Empowerment (the SA version of Affirmative Action), a major area of disagreement within the party itself, there is a token acknowledgement that the DA supports it. However the manifesto rejects quotas, and punitive measures for companies that fail to meet them, and instead suggests incentives to encourage economic empowerment. They also suggest relaxing the scorecard system currently used to monitor businesses compliance with BEE for small businesses. There's also a bit about reforming the electoral system by adding a constituency based element to compliment the current PR/Party list system. They also make a commitment to increase the powers of provincial governments. Ardennes posted:Anyone have a good summary of the factions within the DA, since it does seem to be a open-tent sort of party? I can't find a single article laying it all out neatly, but this short piece explains some of the tensions within the party between the "old guard", composed of party stalwart liberals, and the "black caucus", largely composed of up and coming black legislators who are trying to push the DA to some slightly more left leaning positions. They had a big argument about the DA's stance on BEE at the end of last year when the old guard liberals forced the party to withdraw it's support for the Employment Equity Amendment Bill. The "black caucus" responded by forcing the party to make a token statement in support of BEE at their policy conference at the end of last year. Since then there has been some indications Lindiwe Mazibuko, the leader of the DA in Parliament and firm Zille ally, has been drawing closer to the pro-change faction in the party led by Masizole Mnqasela and Khume Ramulifho. The attempt to merge with Agang SA seems to have riled the old guard faction with Athol Trollip, the man who challenged Zille for leadership of the party and the DA's candidate for premier in the Eastern Cape, giving public interviews blasting Zille and Ramphele. There are definately some knives being sharpened. A lot of focus is on the DA's candidate for premier in Gauteng, Mmusi Maimane. He has been groomed by Zille and is seen by many as her heir apparent, the pro-change faction have been courting him but he seems to have reacted cooly to their advances so far. The Daily Maverick did a good piece about him recently, he's being positioned as the Obama of South Africa as you can see by this subtle campaign poster:  Ardennes posted:How is the left wing of the ANC fairing at this point? I think it's fair to say that the left wing of the ANC is in absolute crisis at the moment. Zwelinzima Vavi, the charismatic general secretary of COSATU (the largest trade union federation and close ally of the ANC), has been suspended for sexual misconduct. This is largely been interpreted as a politically motivated move designed to reign in the unions who are growing increasingly frustrated with the pace of change in the country. The suspension has prompted an open rebellion from the left against the ANC and the SACP. Here's a short article giving some background into current crisis in COSATU. There is a serious war brewing between the left wing factions that propelled Zuma into power and Zuma himself, the left wing have grown restless and Zuma is trying to tame them. That piece is a bit out of date though because NUMSA, the largest single union in the country, has since openly rebelled against the ANC and has refused to support them in this election. They continue to lead the renegade faction in COSATU but are quietly working to create a broad based coalition deliberately reminiscent of the anti-apartheid United Democratic Front. They recently held a "political school" and have made movements to align themselves with community groups involved in service delivery protests. The possibility of NUMSA creating a Labour Party is a greater threat to the ANC than the EFF could ever be. kustomkarkommando fucked around with this message at 19:32 on Feb 23, 2014 |
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Feb 23, 2014 17:11
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3peat posted:I'm curious, how does Malema reconcile his corruption scandals and his fleet of luxury cars with that ideology? Deny deny deny. His corruption trial has been postponed until later this year so the current party line is that this proves Malema is innocent and the prosecution is politically motivated. If he was guilty surely they would have convicted him by now  Something that hasn't been mentioned yet in this thread is that Malema is currently scrambling to raise R16 million to pay back-taxes he owes the Revenue Service. The bling lifestyle that defined his days in the Youth League has largely disappeared as a result, he's already sold off two multi-million rand properties to try to cover the debt. The Revenue Service have requested Malema be declared insolvent and a sequestration order be placed on his assets so they can recover the debt. Malema is currently fighting this in court insisting that he only owes R4 million, the initial debt before interest and penalty fees, and that he was tricked into accepting the R16 million figure. The court is due to rule on May 26th (19 days after the election). If he loses and is declared insolvent then, per SA law, he will be barred from sitting in parliament which will be a serious blow to the EFF. The EFF are currently setting up an "independent" fund to try to raise the money to pay off Malema's debts so he can sit in parliament if his appeal fails. The EFF are already tight for cash though, as a new party they are entitled to no government funding as they hold no seats in the National Assembly or any Provincial Assemblies.
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Feb 26, 2014 18:10
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Lead out in cuffs posted:Rwanda got angry with SA for kicking out some of its officials after they kept trying to assassinate a former spook within SA borders
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Mar 7, 2014 20:33
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Phaeoacremonium posted:She has the biggest set of brass balls in SA politics. Have you seen the front page of the report?   The thing is massively long and I'm struggling to build up the energy to read the full thing but my lazy scrolling wound up on this graph:  If you're a masochist like me M&G have uploaded the full thing
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Mar 19, 2014 21:29
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Lead out in cuffs posted:It would be very encouraging if the next election started looking closer to a three-way split between the DA, ANC and EFF, and parties started talking electoral coalitions. I don't see the EFF allying with the DA ever, but maybe the IFP or NFP could choose sides? Well it looks like the IFP are seriously suffering based on the current poll results, the NFP split has not done them any favours - Looks like the DA are set to overtake them in KZN! Also, The DA are leading in Joburg but there are still plenty of votes to count, though they have already got more votes than they did in 2009.
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May 8, 2014 20:49
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