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trash squad
Oct 21, 2013

This thread has been dormant for a bit, but thought it worth reviving with the exit polls showing the BJP poised to deliver a 'shellacking' to the Congress party - Narendra Modi as PM, and a (probable) BJP parliamentary majority.

The Congress party has been in power since independence. But, with the reluctant leadership of Rahul Gandhi, last few years of economic stagnation, and high profile corruption scandals (coal/electricity/etcetcetc.), this is relatively unsurprising.

Some key points:
  • Voter Turnout – record 66.38% turnout, 130 million more votes cast than in the 2009 election. 537 million votes total.
  • $16 billion in foreign investment in past 6 months, interpreted as int'l community betting on Modi's promised economic turnaround. Markets responding positively to today's exit polls.
  • BJP predicted to take up to 300 seats, rivalling Congress Party's 1984 win after Indira Gandhi's assassination.

This brings to mind a few questions.

First, are voters truly voting for Modi (and all he stands for), or is it more of a referendum on the directionless Congress Party? (I believe it's more toward the latter, although Modi supporters are very, very energetic about his leadership.)

Modi has moderated his Hindu nationalist rhetoric (somewhat) in the past few years. How will this play out with him as PM? Will it be overt rhetoric, i.e. "India is for Hindus", or more toward implicit discrimination against Muslims, as with Muslims in Gujarat being left out of their state's economic and development gains?

Will the Gujarat model for economic growth work in India as a whole?

Sources:
Guardian's liveblog of election results.

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trash squad
Oct 21, 2013

goatse.cx posted:

What about the opposing 'Kerala model'? Can someone familiar with the subject elaborate on it a bit?

The Kerala model is based on redistribution, on state-directed development. Despite a relatively low per capita income, Kerala has achieved a lot of progress on HDI indicators over last ~30 years. Literacy rate of 91% (national rate is 65%), increases in life expectancy, drops in infant mortality, etc. That being said, state still has high unemployment, is not very industrialized, and sends a lot of workers to the Gulf. Gulf remittances play a large role in Kerala's economy. I'm in a bit of a hurry, so I can't source each individually, but here are some resources:

Basics about Kerala Model

Kerala & Gulf Workers

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