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Fangz posted:Putting that little share price change tag next to the guy's company name doesn't do much for his credibility though. That was probably a copy paste from the original, listing the ticker and stock price of the company mentioned in an online article is pretty common.
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May 26, 2014 21:51
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caberham posted:Yes that too, but it doesn't seem to be fragmenting with regional groups trying to secede. Being angry, yes, but outright secession? Not that I know of. There has been a Khalistan independence movement for decades, and has resulted in some fairly terrible acts of terrorism of the years.
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Sep 27, 2014 03:50
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Arglebargle III posted:Hehe yeah there's no way the property market might burst. Has China told the rest of the world about the magic of only having one investment vehicle making that one vehicle immune to crashes? Seems that something like that would be helpful to know.
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Oct 20, 2014 00:50
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Out of curiousity, how long can China publish rubbish numbers before it doesn't matter what they say? Obviously they have more leeway since they aren't transparent, but I cannot imagine that the US (or anyone else) would get away for long lying about their GDP. What is it about China that makes people say there won't be a crash until the government reports the crash?
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Oct 21, 2014 20:04
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Ardennes posted:One thing is that China is seen as a counter-balance to the US and the only real "chance" to replace the US as a the largest economy on earth. However, that reasoning also accepts what China (and the US ironically enough) has done to make that result happen. I just try and fail to imagine a situation where some developer in the US was building cities that no one was living in, or someone (a lot of someones) purchasing investment properties in Detroit, and then taking GDP growth numbers seriously. In China, both of those things seem to be taken as proof that everything is great and thanks for asking.
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Oct 21, 2014 20:16
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whatever7 posted:You can just look at the raw material import numbers, you don't have to look at China's number. Isn't one of the most popular methods of getting currency out of the country, other than a suitcase or taped to your body, by making large foreign raw material purchases from a supplier you happen to own and then forgetting to deliver the materials? Everyday Chinese having only one option to invest their money, so it is safe, really is an interesting argument. China should share their knowledge of that with the rest of the world, as we would like it if our markets would stop exploding every so often.
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Oct 21, 2014 23:49
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Ardennes posted:That is still cooking the books, and I am skeptical there isn't state complicity involved. They "trust" them because not trusting them is a hazard to their career but it doesn't mean they aren't complicit is passing false statistics. Obviously, great economic data is good for everyone politically but it is very hard at least to me to give them a pass for it just because of the chaotic way it is done. At the end of the day they know they are passing off bad numbers even though they aren't the ones that actually added the extra zero to numbers. I know how much I am fudging my numbers, and can guess how much my vassals fudged the numbers they gave me, but I don't really know how much their underlings fudged their numbers. My lord probably fudged them a bit too when he passed them along.
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Oct 22, 2014 18:32
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Pervis posted:Isn't this similar to what happened in Japan? Using property as collateral for loans furthering a property bubble (in a business/corporate world), which then popped horribly? If the loans are secured with property that is highly speculative and in reality isn't worth anywhere near as much as the loan acts like they are, then the loans don't actually have much backing since the collateral will devalue in the event of a general downturn. I believe Iceland's banking industry was using speculative acquisitions as collateral for loans for further speculative acquistitions, on their way to 2008 as well.
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Oct 23, 2014 03:38
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How far to the negative would China's real GDP have to go before the official number went to 0%? I am curious what sort of behaviour we will start to see in China when the economy dips since no one can actually believe the numbers anyways.
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Nov 26, 2014 00:01
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icantfindaname posted:Probably the same as Japan, IE lower the interest rate to 0%, print money forever, and not actually fix the underlying problems ever, with no effect. The only difference is that the Chinese population might get pissed enough that the growth stopped so soon and with so much comical environmental damage that they'll threaten the stability of the government, in that case, who knows what happens Yeah, but that would be an official response to the issue. Since China is wholly committed to the idea of growth forever, I expect them to never do any of the things other governments would do when they have a downturn. My economic behaviour is semi-rational based on what I witness in my day to day life, and because I can believe the numbers that are published about my country. China will be an interesting experiment to see what happens when you remove one of those inputs. My question was more "What the population will do?" when the economy turns, but is still officially 5%, rather than what the government will do.
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Nov 26, 2014 00:29
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One the highlight for me of the Dotcom crash was Palm had a market cap that greatly exceeded that of 3Com who, as it would happen, owned 90-95% of Palm. How much of that is going on? Or is it pretty much impossible to follow ownership and corporate ties in China?
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Apr 13, 2015 05:31
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Shifty Pony posted:When the Chinese stock market goes tits up who's going to end up being the scapegoat? Japan is the go to scapegoat, so it will be their fault. (Alternatively, China will be shocked and outraged about Japanese businessmen making use of their local prostitutes again.)
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May 20, 2015 16:54
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FrozenVent posted:Couple of years back China was about to start building an alternative to the Panama Canal through Nicaragua. Any day now. That seems like a more feasible way of shipping goods to Europe than a rail line through Brazil.
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May 21, 2015 03:20
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Fojar38 posted:How much cargo is shipped from Beijing to Moscow? I'd wager not enough to cover the costs of this thing, especially with Russia's economy in the shitter. Someone is betting long on the counterfeit Adias track suit industry.
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May 23, 2015 01:15
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That is a lot of bridges. Do any of them actually go someplace? IF so, does that someplace have any people living in it?
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Jun 10, 2015 05:58
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Mr.Radar posted:Another commenter in that HN thread referred to an FT Alphaville article that apparently mentioned that 70% of stocks hit their circuit breakers. I wonder what Monday will look like. If individual stocks are already hitting circuit breakers with these daily single digit declines, it is probably a safe bet that the breaker will be hit earlier in the day on Monday. (And explains why the declines haven't hit double digits.)
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Jun 27, 2015 00:09
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Fojar38 posted:Recovery! The Gnomes of Bejing work their miracles again. And they still have 4 and change rates left to drop when they need.
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Jun 29, 2015 04:34
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Jumpingmanjim posted:BREAKING: 21 MAJOR BROKERAGES IN CHINA DECIDE TO JOINTLY INVEST TOTAL 120B RMB IN BLUECHIP ETF FUNDS TO STABLISH MARKET - OFFICIAL STATEMENT Has there ever been a bigger, flashier SELL EVERYTHING NOW sign in the history of markets?
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Jul 4, 2015 06:52
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TheBalor posted:Jesus, 117%?! I had known they were in a boom, but how could anyone assume that was healthy? Has there ever been an explosion of value like that that didn't result in a horrid crash? It is the greatest culture and greatest economy in the world. What else would it do, but go up 117% in 8 months? E: *banana cart posting*
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Jul 7, 2015 16:50
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Voluntarily de-listing your companies stock from the exchange, to stop its share price from declining. Brilliant! I sure hope Wall Street is taking notes on how markets work from the Gnomes of Bejing.
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Jul 7, 2015 21:37
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Someone should mention it to Apple so they can pull their shares in between product rollouts, then we will all be rich.
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Jul 8, 2015 00:27
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Bro Dad posted:Crossposted from reddit: This gets better and better. When this slide is finished, they really don't want anything left standing.
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Jul 8, 2015 16:16
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Has anyone in power thought about just rolling back the servers to June 12 and telling everyone to start over? If not, they should totally try that next. I wouldn't be opposed to a small percentage of those trillions I just saved you. The last couple of weeks has been amazing watching this real life version of a one weird trick, investment bankers hate him... Please don't stop now.
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Jul 8, 2015 19:26
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sudo rm -rf posted:I think this literally happened in a Tom Clancy book. I still want my money, you hear me China?!?
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Jul 8, 2015 20:00
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Franks Happy Place posted:I guarantee you that if you approached one of those 5% equity fat-cats and said, "hey there Mr. Fuerdai, wanna sell me some of your shares off-market for 30% less than their last closing price?", you'd get a lot of interest. Heck, even if you disagree with me on that, you'd have to admit somebody would take the deal at 20%, or 10%, whatever. So right there we've established that the actual value of these locked-in shares is lower than what they were before, and until they are fairly traded on an open market, their value is something between 0% and less-than-100%. They wouldn't be freezing these symbols if that wasn't the case. Freezing those symbols operates under the assumption that the value of the share will be unchanged when they unfreeze them. The authorities are going to be in for a big surprise when the market finishes it's crash in about 6 weeks, and those stocks get relisted at their old P/E of 150+ again.
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Jul 8, 2015 22:33
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Franks Happy Place posted:Exactly, the very fact that we all know a bunch of people want to sell and the government won't let them puts their value into question, let alone the fact that as long as they are locked as non-convertible they aren't financial instruments at all. It does have the added benefit that we could be into the Fall before this crash is finished with. Which is something else that is unique and amazing about this situation.
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Jul 8, 2015 22:38
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Crashrat posted:That's what the Federal Reserve did after Lehman Brothers. Bear Stearns went to JP Morgan. Merrill Lynch wen to Bank of America. China would need to bail out Banana Cart Man, and if they did it would just end up being a big arbitrage opportunity. Which means that it is probably Plan K.
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Jul 9, 2015 05:02
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I see Marketwatch has never heard of a bull trap. Excellent!Crashrat posted:Could you elaborate on your hypothetical arbitrage opportunity? No bailout in the history of the world has included the likes of Mr. Banana Cart. If the Chinese set up a system where some people got to offload their shares at more than current market value, those lucky people would buy out banana cart investors to flip to the bailout buyer. Since China is China party insiders would likely be first in line.
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Jul 9, 2015 17:32
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Crashrat posted:This is only workable if you have insider information to let you buy out Mr. Banana Cart before the bailout is offered to Mr. Banana Cart. If you think everyone would get a bailout in those circumstances, and not just a very small elite subset of people, you would be the person that the Chinese crisis measures are tailored for.
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Jul 10, 2015 01:59
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If half the market is still suspended from trading, it is cheaper and easier to pay for increases.
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Jul 15, 2015 05:36
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jm20 posted:They increased the buy in cost to 2m and you need a networth of something like 8 or 10m. Previously it was 500k investment, 1m net worth or thereabouts, quite a jump in cost. The new program has additional scrutiny of your documented income and assets. Surprisingly not many people are applying though it would be impolite to speculate on their reasons.
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Jul 27, 2015 17:19
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TheBuilder posted:How about a mandate from the manufacturer to the USA dealers so they don't under cut their dealers in China? Canadians have the same problem buying cars in the US, for much the same reason.
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Jul 28, 2015 17:10
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Inferior Third Season posted:I get checking the financial assets of buyers to ensure it isn't clearly illegally obtained, so cops don't come knocking every two days. But I don't see how that has anything to do with evading domestic Chinese taxes, which the dealer, and the U.S. as a whole, should give zero shits about. If the difference in price between the two countries is less than what it costs to ship the vehicle, there would be no reason for anyone to buy in China. It is the same reason DVDs have region coding, except you cannot make a car that doesn't work in Asia. For instance, most Canadians can drive an hour south and save a couple thousand bucks on a new vehicle. Since that would destroy the Canadian dealers, US dealers will generally refuse to sell.
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Jul 29, 2015 16:26
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If wide swaths of the market are still frozen, how are the pension funds going to be able to invest? Just in the shallow remaining market, bailing out the holders of frozen equities privately, or something else? RIP Chinese pensioners either way.
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Aug 23, 2015 18:24
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Vladimir Putin posted:Goodbye pensions I guess. This is 11th dimensional chess from the CPC. They are just waiting for a good bottom to buy in on, then it is easy street for all the elderly in China.
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Aug 24, 2015 03:06
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Cultural Imperial posted:http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/02a129cc-4995-11e5-9b5d-89a026fda5c9.html Is this how this works? I get investors for my scheme. I stockpile some industrially used metal. I use this warehouse to secure a loan from a bank. I use this money, to buy shadow bank financial products. I use the proceeds to pay my investors. First: Jesus Christ! Second: How much to you want to bet the warehouse is empty?
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Aug 24, 2015 04:08
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CommieGIR posted:So China is dumping $95 billion worth of pension funds into the market? They would need trillions, and all that wouldn't make those stocks worth their 6000 P/E ratios again.
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Aug 24, 2015 04:12
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CommieGIR posted:At the end of this all, will this dive continue? This is downright creepy. Yeah, pretty much. The circuit breakers will continue to blow daily, but really that just drags out the pain. (Which is also awesome if you like schadenfreude.)
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Aug 24, 2015 04:29
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Freezer posted:It will be a short lived schadenfreude. Western companies are dependent on sales and investments in China to a considerable degree, and this could trigger a shitshow everywhere. It might be amusing to see wanton greed and hubris be punished, but do not think this won't affect a bunch of us when/if it explodes, 2008-style. If you cannot also enjoy homegrown, I don't know what to tell you.
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Aug 24, 2015 04:39
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hooman posted:So uhh.. forgive my financial illiteracy but if China craters how hosed is the rest of the globe financially? If you are banking your future sales on the burgeoning Chinese middle class. hosed. If you sell commodities to China. Super hosed. If you are a destination of fleeing Chinese capital. Pretty good, then hosed. VVV: Canada and Australia might be that hosed. ocrumsprug fucked around with this message at 07:16 on Aug 24, 2015 |
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Aug 24, 2015 07:14
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