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MiddleOne
Feb 17, 2011

Krispy Kareem posted:

It depends on how you're employing them. Building highways and dams? Good. Making millions of tons of steel that no one needs or worse, people use to erect unwanted buildings? Not good.

The steel part especially I think is the one that is running on fumes here. The international steel market has been hitting bottom quotas ever since the 2008 recession in terms of price and mostly that's because Chinese steel is competing on what I can only dub as Uber terms. They can provide the same product at a vastly cheaper price by simply not making any profit. So while steel mills have been getting decommissioned all across the world the Chinese mills keep on floating by absorbing more state loans.

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MiddleOne
Feb 17, 2011

Grouchio posted:

Surprising how we haven't updated this since before Trump's election. When do you guys think the economy there will begin to really implode? Next year? 2018? Later?

The literal second that Trump decides to deliver on his tariff promises.

MiddleOne
Feb 17, 2011

fishmech posted:

As a reminder, trumps proposed 35% blanket tariff on China products would most often not change the price or lower the price. So if he actually got it in, many Chinese things get more attractive to import.

Now you're going to have to elaborate. :raise:

MiddleOne
Feb 17, 2011

cowofwar posted:

Seeing lots of talk about Chinese deleveraging and a possible liquidity/credit crisis due to subprime poo poo representing >10% of the economy. What up?

Don't tell me we're revisiting 2015 already.

MiddleOne
Feb 17, 2011

wyldhoney posted:

Hi all, sorry to crash the thread.

I must wondered what everyone thinks about the Chinese colonizing America's next door neighbours, i.e. the Caribbean.

Phone posting, but Google the Bahamar debacle in the Bahamas and the Pearl of the Caribbean fight currently going on in Saint Lucia (my country) for an idea of what the Chinese are up to.

Why are they here? Is it just to give their state construction company more stuff to build?

Is it to keep a closer eye on the US?

I'm trying to fight the project at home but need to understand the motivation behind this.

They're trying to decrease their current crippling dependency on the US and the EU so that they can transition into being the independent superpower that they already view themselves as. In Asia this is a rugged battle as everyone knows they're in a tug-of-war between China, India, Japan and the US but with Central America, South Africa and Africa there is less local resistance. Everyone already hates the US thanks to supranational institutions and there's huge need for capital.

MiddleOne
Feb 17, 2011

Yeah are we living in opposite world here?

MiddleOne
Feb 17, 2011

R. Guyovich posted:

the united states has destabilized the caribbean, overthrown governments there and stunted development for decades but the chinese might send tourists. may god have mercy on us all

Comedy set aside, Africa is a good indication that China is no less predatory then any other neo-colonialist power. It's the same game of weapons/investments in exchange for national resources that it has always been.

MiddleOne
Feb 17, 2011


On the other hand, Sudan.

MiddleOne
Feb 17, 2011

R. Guyovich posted:

you'll need to be more specific

To say that China's role in Sudan during the time of the Darfur genocide was problematic would be to put it lightly.

MiddleOne
Feb 17, 2011

Kassad posted:

Isn't it pretty much just because of the one child policy?

The gender imbalance or the pension problem?

MiddleOne
Feb 17, 2011

MrNemo posted:

A lot of the stuff I read about China's development projects in Africa and South America sound like some combination of exporting their own infrastructure spending to maintain government fueled GDP growth and early period British Imperialism where, instead of recruiting indigenous peoples to produce basic products for export, the British just exported 5 million Scots and had them do the work. The real test comes in 20-30 years when China has improved its ability for force projection and some local government refuses to pay up or orders Chinese people/companies to leave.

Then history will repeat itself with them getting into proxy wars with France, the US or whatever local hegemony might arise in the next few decades.

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MiddleOne
Feb 17, 2011

My favourite part of that image is Iraq apparently being more terrified of Israel than the US.

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