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Arglebargle III posted:So by what date should I get my money out of China? My family has had money in China for nearly two decades. In the long run, we've made a lot more than what we could potentially lose from any sort of major adjustments (whether Japan-style, European-style, or even U.S.-style). If you've only been in there for a few years, then I can see how you might have not gained enough to make any risk of staying worthwhile. I can tell you this though, we lost a lot more during the U.S. financial crash than we ever have anywhere else, at any time. With that in mind, we're keeping the percentage of our total investments, as Chinese investments, more or less what they are. If you really don't have the stomach to stay in for the long-run, I recommend putting more of your money into safer instruments. If I remember correctly, small cap funds (in Canada and the U.S.) have been doing pretty well in recent years, so there's a place to start. I can tell you this though, some of our acquaintances that lost the most of their net worth in the last decade have been those that had most of their assets and investments in the U.S. I remember some of them lost ~50% or more. ComaPrison fucked around with this message at 08:20 on Mar 24, 2014 |
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Mar 24, 2014 05:11
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Cultural Imperial posted:That is the worst loving anecdotal financial advice I have ever loving read. Even worse than the tripe a loving realtor would tweet. If you're on Something Awful for financial advice, you've got a lot more serious things to worry about. I'm just a random stranger on the internet, and I can only tell you what my personal experience has been in observing the ups and downs of my family's investments since the late 90s. If you want solid advice from people that do this poo poo for a living, there are places to go for that! On top of that, this is the "China Economy Megathread", not the "ITT Goons Give Me Financial Advice I Will Take Seriously" thread. I can only tell you that there are a lot of people, my family included, that have made out quite well with investing there, and some are in it for the long haul. We're not professional economists or even econ nerds, but we've had some good judgments and some good luck since the late 90s. What more can you expect from laymen? If you want this thread to be exclusively for hardcore econ nerds to circle jerk, you should've titled it something other than "China Economy Megathread". If, on the other hand, you intend for this to be a nesting pit for bears, you should've made that clear from the title as well. From a cursory glance at your OP and other posts in this thread though, I have to question whether you have any direct stake (i.e. actual investments) in the ups and downs of the Chinese economy. More than anything else, you just seem like a bitter Canadian bear that is praying for a Chinese implosion so you can satisfy some twisted need for schadenfreude. Having spent a couple of decades in Vancouver, I can understand why you'd feel pissed about the insane bubble that is Vancouver's property. Although it's true that it's mostly due to immigrant money from China, you also have to consider that the BC government has benefited quite a bit from that inflow of cash. Yeah, it has priced a lot of locals out of the property market, but blaming China for that is as silly as blaming the WTO for hollowing out Detroit. The global economy is an amoral beast, and countless people get hosed by it if they lack some luck and some good judgement. Lastly, you should still give the Canadian government some credit for shutting SOME of the valves of that hot money inflow from China. Last I checked, the Vancouver property bubble is more or less frozen, if not gradually deflating. It hasn't been good news for people looking to sell (like we are), but it should certainly take some pressure off people who are eventually hoping to buy. ComaPrison fucked around with this message at 05:46 on Mar 24, 2014 |
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Mar 24, 2014 05:24
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Tarkus posted:I think a big thing for China as it starts expanding its own technological industries will be to start enforcing copyright and IP laws, even for foreign countries and businesses. While they've been able to make a big market out of reverse engineering and copying foreign designs, that time is coming to a close. They will have their own industries, technologies and intellectual properties hampered and decimated by cheap knockoffs that they themselves encourage with no enforcement of these laws. At this point in time, I don't think they're too worried about having their technology copied. There may come a day when that will change, but I am not sure it will be anytime soon. On balance, the decision of how strictly to enforce IP laws will depend on the macro-level impact on the economy. If a few Chinese companies get ripped off on a few billion worth of IP, but a few other Chinese companies make off with tens of billions worth by reverse-engineering, we'll probably see a continuation to the very mixed record on enforcement. It's just different for the U.S. because there's a lot more to lose in having tech ripped off by foreigners than there is to gain in stealing other people's tech. ComaPrison fucked around with this message at 09:03 on Mar 25, 2014 |
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Mar 25, 2014 09:00
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