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OwlBot 2000 posted:I suppose China's government has no legal, cultural or economic limitations in its ability to simply hire the unemployed to build infrastructure directly or expand its SOEs as needed, and raise taxation to make up for any budget shortfall. It will be interesting to see how they deal with an economic crisis. I do recall hearing that overall, the fiduciary situation of the Chinese government itself is very good, so they might have room to do a make-work program there. To my mind, the problem comes from the far more heavily indebted local governments and the large firms who are now causing such a boom in the shadow banking sector. If lots of those start to go under, the Chinese government will face enormous pressure to nationalize their losses.
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May 10, 2014 12:48
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The current anti-corruption drive can be good in that respect. They can use this time while the crisis is still in the offing to identify companies and officials who have the clout to make serious trouble in a crisis, then either co-opt them or get rid of them preemptively.
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May 10, 2014 16:03
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They might not be safe, but it's hard to tell. A part of the shadow banking industry is shady loans between companies, with big banks acting as go-betweens. A lot depends on who's exposed and where, because if those healthy export-oriented companies have massive loans given out to teetering real estate companies, things could get really lovely for everyone.
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Jun 2, 2014 01:53
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blueyedevil posted:How much do these provincial politicians and bureaucrats generally get paid? I know throughout modern history their wages were basically unlivable. IIRC, Bo Xilai's salary (before he got ganked, anyway) was something absurd like $20,000 a year. This, for a man whose family assets can be enumerated in billions. The people who get really hosed are the lowest level bureaucrats. They get paid wages even lower than the above, and they really don't have the ability to BE corrupt. There was an article about them a few months back, and they interviewed a guy who had spent the last few years of his life working 8 am to 8 pm every day for peanuts, with no promotion in sight. TheBalor fucked around with this message at 05:52 on Jun 4, 2014 |
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Jun 4, 2014 05:50
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Has there ever been a government as undemocratic as China, and even a 20th of its size, that wasn't also wildly corrupt? It seems like an inherent feature of regimes controlled by an autocratic in-group, whether it's El Presidente's family or the Communist Party.
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Jun 10, 2014 15:08
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In the event of a famine, I wonder how long it'd take for China to start extorting its neighbors for cheap grain.
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Jun 26, 2014 11:53
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Fojar38 posted:If I recall the US produces a substantial surplus of food. The North American plains are possibly the most fertile farmlands in the world and farming technology has advanced very rapidly over the past century. Unfortunately, plains agriculture isn't something that can be relied on in the long term. Most of the plains are reliant on aquifers to irrigate, and these are all being drained at a rapid clip.
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Jun 28, 2014 08:58
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Nintendo Kid posted:We don't do most of our agriculture on the plains. If the plains go than so what? We're down to only producing 2.5x the food we need instead of 4x. I was specifically responding to a comment about the North American plains. :P Anyway, the chance of a new Dustbowl happening isn't exactly a "So what?" problem, and the plains aren't the only place where water shortages are going to be an issue. Even if American can remain self-sufficient, we might not be able to meet the demand of an increasing Chinese population, as well as those of our allies in a world where the amount of properly arable land is rapidly shrinking.
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Jun 28, 2014 23:43
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Fojar38 posted:North American and European populations are pretty stable and the world isn't going to turn into a massive desert. This is a problem that will be felt everywhere but it is unlikely to impact the life of your average Joe Westerner like it will if you live in China, India, or Africa. Christ, are people reading my posts at all, or just banging their faces against reply? That's exactly what I'm saying! I'm not saying that Californians will be starving, I'm saying Chinese people will!
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Jun 29, 2014 00:07
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Now, before people go too crazy, wouldn't the deposal of the CPC, or at least breaking of their monopoly on power, be overall very beneficial for China? With real competition in the halls of power, there's a reason to go all-out against corruption, raise civil servant salaries, cut waste, etc. Everyone won't be holding each other's dicks at the highest level. I've always thought that a China with its corruption pared back to US levels would be even stronger than it is right now.
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Sep 25, 2014 12:55
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My Imaginary GF posted:Really? drat, China is hosed. Surely that's exaggeration. Are the top levels of CCP leadership that divided?
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Oct 21, 2014 12:13
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I don't think it's doomed, but I'm not sanguine about the CCP's chances to keep their stranglehold.
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Apr 10, 2015 19:14
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Zeroisanumber posted:Fairly good profile for President Xi Jinping in the New Yorker that explains his personal and political philosophy. Also, that was a very good read. The fact that none of his major targets in the anticorruption drive have been Princelings is pretty telling.
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Apr 10, 2015 19:18
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A lot of the economic boon the US received from the war was from the government tapping productive capacity left unused by the Depression. China already has huge SOEs propping up employment.
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Apr 13, 2015 16:03
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There's no reliable playbook to go on for development. In fact, the one that many countries push (drop all trade boundaries and invite foreign experts to build things up) will likely condemn you to poverty forever.
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Apr 20, 2015 02:02
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This is good for Bitcoin.
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Jun 29, 2015 14:50
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Cultural Imperial posted:Ok shithead. Explain how Bitcoin is going to help the low information chinese investor. It's called a joke, dickcheese. Bitcoiners are always looking at any catastrophic event and saying "this is good for bitcoin." They're currently masturbating to the Greek problem, but this is surely next.
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Jun 29, 2015 15:10
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Is it possible these measures are making the problem worse?
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Jul 3, 2015 15:13
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So, they're basically passing a law that the stock market isn't allowed to crash? I can't say exactly why that would fail, but I feel it has something to do with discouraging foreign investors from getting involved.
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Jul 4, 2015 16:11
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Jesus, 117%?! I had known they were in a boom, but how could anyone assume that was healthy? Has there ever been an explosion of value like that that didn't result in a horrid crash?
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Jul 7, 2015 16:29
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GhostofJohnMuir posted:I'm really making an effort to see $3.2 trillion in equity lost in three weeks and a market that still has an average p/e of 55 as a situation to be optimistic about, but I just can't see it. I'm willing to buy that the effects of the bubble bursting might not be that ruinous due to higher rates of saving among the Chinese, but painting a rosy picture of a 27% seems like being intentionally obtuse. I mean, in a way, this could be good for China long term. This could presage cracks in the CCP's power that lead to eventual liberalization and reform? That, or they'll just start shooting everyone again.
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Jul 8, 2015 04:28
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TheIneff posted:I don't get why this is a foregone conclusion. It might not have been at some times, but right now Xi Jinping and his princeling bros are in charge. They're red royalty, pretty much all the children of CCP high ups going all the way back to the revolution. They've already been amping up their propaganda in a retro THE PARTY UBER ALLES direction. It would be very surprising if they saw a serious movement towards reform fueled by economic unrest and DIDN'T take the opportunity to crack some skulls.
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Jul 8, 2015 14:49
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Cultural Imperial posted:Dude, the proof is in front of you. China managed to halt the slide, to my chagrin. Isn't this just going to be a giant money pit forever, then? They refuse to let prices slide, so they're going to just subsidize the poo poo out of the market forever. gently caress, maybe that's why Goldman-Sachs says BUY BUY BUY. That's the kind of no-lose situation they love.
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Jul 10, 2015 15:47
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So how to they keep valuation from blowing up too much? Surely, if people catch wind en masse, they'll try to get in on it, but that could blow up to the point where even the CCP can't comfortably absorb the hit.
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Jul 10, 2015 17:35
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GhostofJohnMuir posted:I for one hope the Chinese have found the solution for creating infinite prosperity out of thin air. Hear, hear!
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Jul 13, 2015 14:30
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What the gently caress. This isn't like the first stock market crash they've had, right? Why are they staking so goddamn much on being able to push back the tide?
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Jul 27, 2015 12:52
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Arglebargle III posted:No, those were actual RMBs going into somebody's account. That's his point. Goldman Sachs' account. I'm betting you more than a few dynastic fortunes were made in the last few weeks.
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Jul 27, 2015 14:12
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mastervj posted:Can youstop the crash by outright "buying" the whole market? Because what goes up must eventually go down? Let's assume the prices are wildly overinflated, but China has enough money to buy it all up. What then? You suddenly have trillions in stock that is worth a fraction of what you paid for it.As soon as the government starts to unload it, the process will start again. That's why people say they're trying to hold back the tide: short of eternally finding more suckers to buy in for higher and higher prices, prices have to recede from the absurd highs.
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Jul 27, 2015 22:33
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mastervj posted:Nah, you buy it and then burn the paper. Pooof. All gone. But no investor loses money because they are paid in full. The goverment does not unload anything. What happens to a company's value when its stock literally disappears into thin air?
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Jul 28, 2015 12:18
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So, they keep devaluing their currency to keep exports high. What is to stop them from doing it forever?
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Aug 12, 2015 16:00
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I live on the border. When things get really tense, they set up machine gun nests downtown. There are no machine gun nests.
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Aug 21, 2015 15:54
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cheesetriangles posted:I thought NK didn't have internet how are you posting? Potato router.
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Aug 21, 2015 16:42
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Warcabbit posted:No, but it's a pretty clear obvious pushing of a narrative. One thing that I knew was untrue in the book was about the CIA agent who handled the AJAX operation to overthrow Mohammed Mossadeq. It said he was so solidly republican that he used "roosevelt" as a curse word. Except that's not true, because his name was Kermit Roosevelt, and the republican thing was a lie he concocted to cover his rear end when he shouted "Oh, Roosevelt!" after a flub in a tennis match. In fact, a lot of the history around AJAX feels very much like people are trying to concoct a narrative, rather than provide a complete history.
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Sep 10, 2015 05:36
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Grouchio posted:So when will the real collapse of the Chinese economy occur, if it hasn't already? Come back next week.
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Oct 3, 2015 04:21
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Krispy Kareem posted:What are Europe's ties to China? I figured they were an importer of Chinese goods like the US. Those goods get cheaper the deeper China sinks. This hurts manufacturing in the US and Europe, but is no where near the shitstorm that countries who export raw materials to China are facing. One example I recall being mentioned in this thread was that to buy Chinese A-shares on their stock market, you have to be a Chinese firm. Presumably this is the financial version of "If you want to use our manufacturing, give us your IP."
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Feb 12, 2016 01:54
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