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GlassEye-Boy
Jul 12, 2001

Cultural Imperial posted:

Yeah but do you think that's going to be enough? If the chinese economy is really in free fall, your friends are going to be playing catch-the-falling-knife.

Gordan Chang comes out with a China is on the edge of collapse article every couple of months. Who knows maybe one of these days he'll be right.

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GlassEye-Boy
Jul 12, 2001

icantfindaname posted:

I don't think it's at all given that a democratic China would have kept and continued to oppress Xinjiang/Tibet/Inner Mongolia, or that the Nationalists wouldn't have given up power. I don't think enough information exists to make such a prediction, like with many things in China, and speculation is therefore useless at best.

At the same time I don't think the information really exists to think that the CCP won't give up power eventually. Even if it takes more than in South Korea and Taiwan, which is probably likely.

Taking away everything else the single fact that the Himalayas supply a huge part of China's water supply will guarantee that tibet will never be a independent state
.

GlassEye-Boy
Jul 12, 2001
Good, China can do with less loving coal burning everywhere!

GlassEye-Boy
Jul 12, 2001

My Imaginary GF posted:

There is an ongoing purge, no matter what PRC deigns to call it. I'm expecting it to hit Macau soon.


Shipping? Its bad for shipping, actually, because China has over-produced international shipping capacity. What that means is that you have to subsidize the carriers to take your cargo. Lower prices mean lower margins for some shippers, slightly higher for others, and require increases in subsidies to shippers in order to take your goods. The more you produce that needs to be exported, the more you need to subsidize carriers to take your products to international market. Its quite a contradictory system: the more you ship, the higher your operating costs.

This line of reasoning just doesn't make sense to me. Over capacity issues aside, Why would lower oil costs lower profit margins?

GlassEye-Boy
Jul 12, 2001

Sheng-ji Yang posted:

I remember walking passed the Apple store in Bangkok, and there was a couple buses full of Chinese tourists unloading and going straight into the store and tour groups taking group pictures all holding up their new iphones in front of the store. Are consumer electronics like that cheaper outside of China enough to warrant that kind of weirdness, or are Thai iphones just cooler?

Iphones cost at least twice as much in China as they do in other countries such as the US and Thailand. This is due to high luxury taxes on things like electronics and cars. In China how much you pay for a Honda will easily be enough to buy a BMW in the US. Has nothing to do with warranty or wither or not something is fake.

GlassEye-Boy
Jul 12, 2001

Zarin posted:

Yeah, and the next logical question is, "What is everyone doing now that we've automated everything that used to occupy all their time?" That gets uncomfortable quick since I don't think too many Very Serious Policy People are looking at this hard (yet?).

To bring this back to China, a lot of the safety videos I've seen that (appear to be) from China seem like they are still in the "throw more people at it" stage of industrialization. Is this true, or is automation catching on very heavily there as well?

Automation is certainly getting a lot of attention and the government at least is making it a major part of their planned development policy. However, how much automation is actually being used is hard to say. As a personal anecdote, I'm working at one of the largest industrial level 3d printing developers in China and from what I've seen adoption of 3d printing technology in China is still fairly slow.

GlassEye-Boy
Jul 12, 2001

Fojar38 posted:

I was referring more to how people, including Western media and institutions, are constantly writing off China's economic problems as a "rebalance" or a "reform" to a "consumption based economy" when if you go back far enough the Chinese have been paying lip service to those things for years now and still have diddly squat to show for it.

I think this is more a case of you selectively picking at articles in western media and institutions. I've seen as many if not more articles claiming the opposite, China is "imploding" "melting down" etc.

GlassEye-Boy
Jul 12, 2001
Anecdotal and all, but people are buying a ton of poo poo in China, more so than ever before. So who knows how real or fake this data is.

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GlassEye-Boy
Jul 12, 2001

The Kingfish posted:

Chinese markets went buttfuck when they found out Trump won. They knew he was the only candidate who would actually slash the TPP.

Slashing the TPP was good for China though?

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