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ComradeCosmobot posted:You just proved his point though. We may not be directly tied to China, but we are tied to Europe, so China is more contagion than direct cause. What are Europe's ties to China? I figured they were an importer of Chinese goods like the US. Those goods get cheaper the deeper China sinks. This hurts manufacturing in the US and Europe, but is no where near the shitstorm that countries who export raw materials to China are facing. One nice thing about China's economy is that their financial system is relatively isolated. Subprime mortgages tanked both the US and Europe, but China's financial instruments are mostly owned by the Chinese. At least, I hope they are.
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Feb 12, 2016 01:52
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The Yuan M2 money supply is about 13 trillion. Printing another 10 trillion is almost doubling the money supply. Anyone know how much extra money it takes to start hyperinflation? It seems like China could patch their banks' gaping hole without too much pain. Unless their corporate debts are held in another country's currency.
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Feb 12, 2016 14:25
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cheesetriangles posted:Surely doubling the entire supply of your currency is a bit more than just a little inflation. I imagine it would also, unless the money is kept in the banks like all those trillions we printed. Although making your money worth less means you have to print more to keep the government running, so it's not like you're going to get away with 'one and done'. It'd be interesting terrifying to see how bootstraps China can fare compared to an entitlement rich state like Venezuela. I just checked those numbers and Hugo's Socialist utopia increased their M2 supply 5x between 2014 and 2015. Those are official figures so it's likely a lot more. But China and Venezuela have polar opposite economies so not the best comparison.
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Feb 12, 2016 16:07
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So the Chinese stock market dropped like 6% and the US stock market actually went up. Does that mean Wall Street no longer cares what happens in China? Was China making our markets go up and down or were we just paranoid about China's impact on oil prices? Because once oil stabilized things started evening out over here.
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Feb 26, 2016 16:45
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DeathSandwich posted:I Am Not An Economist, but I thought I remember an article that said there will be a degree of insulation between China's shutdown and it's impact on US markets. Some companies that are vested in the Chineese economy like Apple will have problems in the immediate sense, but the US at large will weather it. Where the problem comes in is that there's a lot of Chinese capital tied up in Canadian and Australian (among other places) Real estate. When those speculative bubbles collapse the fallout of that will have more of a direct impact on the US. Yeah, there isn't much direct exposure. China represents like 7% of our exports and 1% of our GDP (or GDP growth - can't remember). What hurts is that companies like GE, GM, and Apple were looking at China to fuel future profits. Since your stock price represents future growth, that definitely impacts current values. I'm starting to think the markets were more concerned with falling Chinese demand on oil prices. Once the Saudi's and Russians agreed to production caps, the market seems to have stabilized even while Chinese markets continue to slide. And those production caps were pretty weak (promising to keep it at current record levels). So even a lovely cap was enough to calm nerves.
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Feb 26, 2016 18:01
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The entire steel production capacity of the U.S. and Japan doesn't even match China's excess steel capacity.
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Mar 1, 2016 19:22
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icantfindaname posted:But it doesn't actually matter if the central government is competent because they don't actually run most of the country It's just odd that a country that controls so many aspects of their citizens' lives has so little control over huge swaths of day to day operations. Tons of effort blocking internet sites or propping up economic vanity projects, very little effort keeping plastic out of milk or making buildings that can withstand minor earthquakes.
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Mar 8, 2016 21:28
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A lost decade is only bad until you look at the alternative. At some point a decade of no-growth sounds better than a deep depression.
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Mar 11, 2016 19:23
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Fojar38 posted:A decade of no-growth means that China is going to have to eat crow regarding a lot of their announced ambitions. I was reading that there are still lots of productivity gains to be made with modern mining and manufacturing methods. In regards to all their excess steel capacity, they will be able to close older less efficient operations and ramp up the shiny new factories. Which could increase growth in areas the Japanese couldn't since they were already pretty efficient. Only problem is shiny new factories don't need as many Chinese to work them. So increased productivity is going to also increase unemployment. Not that we'll know since Chinese unemployment's been suspiciously stuck at around 4.1% (very close to full employment) since 2010 except for a few quarters when it was even less than that.
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Mar 11, 2016 19:40
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menino posted:Japan's per capita GDP grew at roughly the same rate at the rest of the developed world throughout the 90s Really?    Japan grew in the 90's. But it's growth slowed to a fraction of the prior decade and was dwarfed by U.S. and Euro Zone growth.
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Mar 11, 2016 20:31
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icantfindaname posted:Well, the EU includes poorer countries with faster growth than the UK/France/Germany. Japan did pretty OK compared to them. Japan actually appears to have outperformed France and only slightly underperformed Germany. USA! USA! USA! Our infrastructure may be crumbling, our poor babies die at alarming rates, but hot drat those GDP numbers.
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Mar 11, 2016 21:03
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icantfindaname posted:I was counting by total increase not percent. But yeah you're right, although stopping at 2002 is weird and if you go to the present French growth is 22% to Japan's 18%, which is a lot less bad than 15 vs 6 It's called a lost decade, not lost decades. Japan has been doing better in more recent years. If you ignore earthquakes and nuclear meltdowns.
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Mar 11, 2016 23:36
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Man Whore posted:So who's going to be the next country that will own all of us in the far future? India? 
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Mar 13, 2016 19:34
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quote:The message registered in Kamin's account just after 11 a.m. in Washington. Kamin quickly replied from his Blackberry: "We'll try to get you something soon." Well that's something you don't see much anymore. Blackberry - what experts use to give advice no one will listen to, quickly.
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Mar 21, 2016 15:30
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Freezer posted:This. Western world is just as hosed up. Don't tell me Too Big to Fail and TARP was the free market in action. Everyone dicks with their markets, just in different ways. Modern economics has a pretty good idea how everything goes to poo poo and what it takes to avoid it. You'll still get recessions, inflation, deflation, and stagnation, but they know how to avoid depressions (which occurred with alarming regularity up until the Great one). So yeah, TARP is mucking with markets, just like QE. And it works. Purestrain Free Market is actually pretty awful, especially when 1890's you is trying to time bank failures so you don't lose your whole potato fortune.
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Mar 22, 2016 13:52
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Jumpingmanjim posted:Prepare to cringe: Maybe I'm missing something, but it didn't seem to be that bad. Some language issues, some cultural issues, some food issues.
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Mar 22, 2016 17:23
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Oracle posted:The whole amazing revelation that when traveling to a foreign country you might have a hard time if you don't speak the language didn't make you roll your eyes back into your head? I couldn't tell if we were cringing at China or at the hipster entrepreneurs selling handmade artisanal iPhone cases. I was waiting to find out that their hotel rooms actually cost more than $100/night, because it sounds cheaper to live in a Hong Kong hotel than even the tiniest apartment.
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Mar 23, 2016 01:35
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Does China not know modern safety and engineering standards or do their aviation manufacturers assume foreign governments sweep poo poo under the rug like Chinese leaders? Because modern planes have ridiculously high reliability. You're not going to squeeze into that market just by charging less. I'm really curious how the new Chinese made Buick is going to turn out. I don't know if a product with that many moving parts has ever been imported from China.
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Mar 24, 2016 18:30
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Fojar38 posted:Or does this mean that literally nobody knows how large or small the Chinese economy is with any meaningful precision? There have been concerns about China inflating their GDP for awhile. Maybe it was national pride, as they claim to have surpassed Japan to be the second largest economy. http://money.cnn.com/news/economy/world_economies_gdp/ That's assuming China's numbers are anywhere near accurate. It's possible their real GDP is as little as half what they post.
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Apr 12, 2016 01:57
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feedmegin posted:I can think of some exceptions, Xiaomi, Lenovo and Huawei for example. Volvo, Hummer, and Smithfield!
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May 25, 2016 14:53
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The problem with these Chinese companies is they don't really have distinct brands. Lenovo could have sold its laptops without IBM, but they were just generic models with no brand loyalty until they bought the ThinkPad name (which they didn't even buy, I believe IBM lent it to them for X number of years). There are some very good, inexpensive phones coming out of China, but they all look the same and run someone else's software so there's nothing getting them repeat business except low prices. I guess buying old down-on-their-luck Western brands kind of solves that problem. Except no one sells their brand when it's number one, so they're getting stuff that's been in decline for years like Haier buying GE's consumer appliance business. Which brings up a question, do any Chinese companies have a significant amount of IP or patent value? I didn't know if the Chinese government did a better job of protecting local trademarks and intellectual property than it did of foreign companies'. caberham posted:There's DJI, they make drones. I always forget they are a Chinese company. They seem to break the mold of most homegrown technology companies in China. Krispy Wafer fucked around with this message at 18:45 on May 25, 2016 |
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May 25, 2016 18:42
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Eletriarnation posted:Pretty sure they bought the name "ThinkPad" in perpetuity plus the right to keep putting "IBM" on it for a limited number of years. See the T60, which postdates the switchover to Lenovo but still says "IBM Thinkpad" on the logos. I thought they had the ThinkPad name for only so long. Kind of like how Microsoft bought Nokia's phone business and Nokia couldn't make new phones for X number of years so as to not confuse the two. But it's possible they only lost access to the IBM name after so long. I know IBM agreed not to make PC's for a period of time. Not that anyone would voluntary enter into the PC market at this stage, but I guess they wanted to give themselves a way back, in case people started hankering for beige boxes again.
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May 25, 2016 19:04
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Fojar38 posted:The iPhone isn't Chinese despite the fact that they are assembled there. It was designed by an American corporation, it's software is developed by an American corporation, the profits from the sale of iPhones go to an American corporation, and its assembly chain goes through the USA, Taiwan, South Korea, and China. Not to mention the fact some products made in China aren't even sold there. I can't recall specifics, but I'm pretty sure Chinese people couldn't buy X-boxes or iPhones until well after they were released in the United States. fishmech posted:Nah, the specific business deal was that Lenovo got all the ThinkPad intellectual property straight up, and then over the next few years also bought the rest of IBM's x86/x86-64 based computer lines. They further got the right to still label ThinkPads as "IBM" for 5 years, but they stopped doing that after about 3 years because market research showed they didn't need it anymore. Fair enough. I didn't realize Lenovo was still using the ThinkPad name. Krispy Wafer fucked around with this message at 21:36 on May 25, 2016 |
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May 25, 2016 21:33
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What is China spending all this Yuan on? I didn't think they had the same entitlement problem as Western governments. I guess they spend a lot on defense, although that's the Central government and not its provinces. Is this what happens when even private sector debt is government owned?
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Aug 8, 2016 22:49
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Homework Explainer posted:keeping people employed....how devious It depends on how you're employing them. Building highways and dams? Good. Making millions of tons of steel that no one needs or worse, people use to erect unwanted buildings? Not good. I hadn't thought of stimulus as the source of all that debt, mainly because I assumed that'd come from the central government as well. In a sane place like the United States, local governments usually have deficit limits. They have to rely on stuff like underfunded pension plans to bankrupt themselves.
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Aug 9, 2016 23:47
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Fojar38 posted:It's really easy to integrate a bunch of services into one app when you have a closed economy with very little competition The Economist had a similar article in last week's issue. If I'm remembering correctly it was much more complimentary to China's ability to compete (i.e. look at how cool Wechat is, now Western tech firms are taking cues from China). I mean, it's cool you can send payments, but there's a really good reason Western apps don't do that and that's because we live in an open, largely urban society where money is easy to send both inside the country and out of it. The fact Chinese need a messaging app to send money isn't necessarily a good thing.
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Aug 12, 2016 02:57
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Here's a lovely payment method from 20 years ago. Precursor I guess, to chip cards. They rolled them out for the '96 Olympic Games. Gave out readers for merchants to use in the city. Nobody used them. It was back when they'd just take your balance if you didn't use the card within a year, so there wasn't much demand except as a collector's item. At least Traveller's Cheques had loss protection.
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Aug 14, 2016 01:46
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computer parts posted:They had those in China for their pay phones. I still have my card somewhere, since I was too lazy to buy a SIM for my card. Like, in China during the Olympics or just like all the time? Because I like it imagine VISA spending every Olympics trying to push a lovely payment system on the host city in some vain decades long attempt to make VISA CASH a thing.
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Aug 15, 2016 02:52
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tekz posted:I know you're the type that has to jump on anything remotely affiliated with China but wechat is actually pretty good. I think facebook messenger is moving to catch up with them feature wise. I don't know if anyone is saying WeChat is bad or that it's not ahead of other Western messaging systems. But it's not something to emulate. It's kind of janky, it's services offered don't necessarily translate well to developed countries, and if you're going to ape another country's tech, don't pick the highly totalitarian, closed marketplace with massive amounts of state funding to limit competition. We still don't know if China's best startups are succeeding despite of or because of China's government.
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Oct 11, 2016 13:37
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So what are the worldwide repercussions when the bubble bursts? Certainly no one is buying securitized China mortgage debt outside of their own country. I guess a collapse could gently caress with other countries' manufacturing as China floods world markets with a rock bottom Yuan.
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Nov 1, 2016 02:56
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I guess I'm trying to gauge the extent of damage. Countries that rely heavily on China's imports or their loans are obviously going to suffer, but it sounds like it'd be more a repeat of the late 90's Asian crisis rather than another 2008 financial collapse. Except you'd probably see more problems in Africa and South America where China has been peddling influence. Then again, Western banks and corporations do some pretty boneheaded things (WaMu, BoA, Iceland, Trump Mortgage in 2007). I wouldn't put it past some huge 'too big to fail' institution inexplicably holding a lot of Chinese debt when the music finally stops. Watch oil and commodity prices finally recover only to see China poo poo itself and start the whole mess over again.
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Nov 1, 2016 15:22
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Isn't the Yuan surging? Or is that bad? A strong Yuan buys more dollars, but hurts exports so which makes China suck more?
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Jan 5, 2017 17:43
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McGavin posted:You say this as if the exchange rate isn't set by Beijing. All that's happening right now is that China is, once again, manipulating exchange rates to make it more expensive for currency speculators to bet against the Yuan. China a currency manipulator? SAD! 
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Jan 5, 2017 21:45
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Fojar38 posted:US markets are up because he's going to deregulate everything which means a surge in profits and economic growth (at the expense of everyone's quality of life) I figured it was because he might actually make good on an overseas tax holiday, resulting in hundreds of billions of dollars being returned and a wave of mergers as companies try to find something to invest in. Heck, someone might even buy Twitter.
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Jan 5, 2017 23:58
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icantfindaname posted:To be fair, at this point it doesn't seem like China is exercising the same influence on domestic politics that the US used to. That may change in the future but at the moment they're basically just running jobs programs for chinese construction workers in third world countries, not having the Chinese-CIA fund death squads to murder anyone who ever said a bad thing about the 5000 year reich If you exclude places like Libya, the US has been pretty benevolent in Africa as of late. The Chinese appear to be using it either as a market for their goods or a source of raw materials. I had a friend in Djibouti who'd always comment on the surprising number of Chinese in the region.
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May 16, 2017 20:54
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MiddleOne posted:The gender imbalance or the pension problem? Yes.
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Jun 28, 2017 01:42
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Peven Stan posted:Source your quotes fojar I'm going to guess it's because France has a nuclear aircraft carrier while China still needs to gas up.
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Jun 28, 2017 03:15
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Potato Salad posted:On the other hand, money. Or they did until all that government backed quasi-private debt defaults and about a billion people retire. The U.S. only has a couple hundred million citizens with unfounded liabilities and a pretty nice currency printing press so we're good. Also, aircraft carriers.
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Jun 28, 2017 04:31
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Moroccans sure are worried about Israel.GhostofJohnMuir posted:huh, i wonder what's up with the strange color of the flag in the local area china can project power in... China projects power like a guy with an UTI pees. All over the place, but mostly around his shoes. Krispy Wafer fucked around with this message at 18:33 on Jun 28, 2017 |
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Jun 28, 2017 18:31
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Isn't all debt State debt in a communist country? Yeah, yeah I know it's not true communism. But didn't the State guarantee a lot of that corporate debt even when the company wasn't in part owned by the State?
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Jul 3, 2017 22:30
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