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Bip Roberts
Mar 29, 2005

Axe Master posted:

Yeah, apologies for the anecdotal evidence however I imagine it is reflective of the current trend. One of the chemists at my university is on the verge of publishing a revolutionary process (which I will keep intentionally vague, I learned most of this from the bitter students in the lab), and the professor in question just returned from a lengthy trip to China to begin the process of starting a multi-billion dollar company there related to it. Part of this is to eschew the patent policy of the university (which is a whole other can of worms), but one would presume if the IP atmosphere in China is as dire as stated it wouldn't be in his best interest to build a startup there.

They're probably not really starting a "multi-billion dollar company". That's not really how tech ramp-up works and you friend was probably exaggerating.

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Bip Roberts
Mar 29, 2005

hitension posted:

Keep in mind that China has over 4x as many people as America. So China's almost 1/4 as good as America now? K, cool :thumbsup:

PPP doesn't help you at all if your tastes are to buy Hermès handbags.

Bip Roberts
Mar 29, 2005

FrozenVent posted:

No.

I'm sure it'll be in Popular Mechanic though.

Not to mention Lyndon Larouche.

Bip Roberts
Mar 29, 2005
Is it actually that much faster? Freight trains don't run that much faster than cargo ships and over a much longer distance.

Bip Roberts
Mar 29, 2005

FrozenVent posted:

Yeah ships drive right over Niagara Falls, no big deal. I agree that they would need a significant quantity of water to flood the upper part, but there's no need to have it flow out all that quick.

Oh and a 3000 ton ship is tiny, that-number-is-missing-a-zero tiny.

Are you somehow being glib about the infrastructure needed to build the Saint Lawrence and Great Lakes shipping channels being cheap?

Bip Roberts
Mar 29, 2005
How much are public suicides actually a barometer of underlying economic problems? I can see them being related but it seems like it might be a pretty coarse grained canary in the coal-mine to look at these things.

Bip Roberts
Mar 29, 2005

Grouchio posted:

At this rate I'd give the current Communist regime...oh...20-30 years before it implodes into a democracy centered in Hong Kong minus TIbet and Uighuristan. Given that the retirement of the revolutionary generation causes massive socioeconomic upheval.

If PRC imploded Hong Kong would become a city state again way, way, way before they decided to become an administrative beartrap ruling over a failed state. Like they'd just Bugs-Bunny any attachment to short and float out to sea.

Bip Roberts
Mar 29, 2005

Peel posted:

Is national PPP GDP a useful measure of anything? PPP per capita gives you a better idea of quality of life, but a larger national figure doesn't help you when international deals are still worked out in nominal dollars.

National PPP GDP is a useful measure on the potential war economy of a country.

Bip Roberts
Mar 29, 2005
Well specifically it was a used as a big part of "how many tanks and guns can the Warsaw bloc produce" question.

Bip Roberts
Mar 29, 2005

Fojar38 posted:

The Warsaw Pact (Soviet Union, really) was also economically self-sufficient and practiced a command economy.

Well someone asked what it was used for.

Bip Roberts
Mar 29, 2005

My Imaginary GF posted:

Has any authoritarian state successfully transitioned to consumption-based economy before?

Taiwan, South Korea.

Bip Roberts
Mar 29, 2005

point of return posted:

What about Singapore?

Singapore is liberalized in a number of ways that aren't civil liberties.

Edit: For one there is a consistent rule of law in Singapore.

Bip Roberts fucked around with this message at 01:09 on Apr 20, 2015

Bip Roberts
Mar 29, 2005

cheesetriangles posted:

Isn't someone getting the money? If they are buying stocks at wildly inflated prices someone has to be selling it?

When you buy stocks on margin you are creating money and when the price crashes it vanishes.

Bip Roberts
Mar 29, 2005

Crashrat posted:

An either/or statement? Tu quoque is a logical fallacy wherein you avoided having to engage with me because you claimed I'd made a mistake. Instead of handling the burden of proof for your argument you just said I made a mistake and refused to engage with any of the substance. It's entirely possible to make a true claim and argue it poorly, which I may have done, but the substance remains irrespective of how well I present it.

And input prices is precisely what we're talking about here. A drop in Chinese energy demand dropping crude prices is the whole point of the conversation.

Keep loving that chicken.

Bip Roberts
Mar 29, 2005

drilldo squirt posted:

Is there any reason except dying for them to lose contact with the firefighters?

Firefighters rationally quit because gently caress being a Chinese firefighter if things are gonna burn like that.

Bip Roberts
Mar 29, 2005

Fojar38 posted:

That's why this is so glorious; honestly the fallout in the developed world isn't going to be particularly severe unless you put literally all your chips in the China basket in which case you deserve to lose your money for making a dumb investment.

Unless it causes a global deleveraging again, but at least for first world us sitting here there's at least a firewall or two in the way.

Bip Roberts
Mar 29, 2005

Dapper_Swindler posted:

I feel bad for that guy. he probaly just saw his entire life savings get pissed away. and probably his pension too.

Should followed the 5000 year tradition and pissed all his money away at the mahjong table

Bip Roberts
Mar 29, 2005
So when it's down by 6% does that mean that 60% of the stocks are pegged at their 10% drop and we're just looking at trading on the 40% most solvent companies on the exchange?

Bip Roberts
Mar 29, 2005

cheesetriangles posted:

Would it have been better to let it pop naturally rather than burning trillions on trying to prop up a doomed market and failing?

No one knows what pop means. If it settles down after today and the only gains lost were from 2015 then maybe it'll be okay. I think the worry Beijing has is that margin calls on stocks will open a Pandoras Box of all sorts of unknown financial problems. It's sure looking like the money being poured to slow the crash are just evaporating but maybe no one understands the real financial situation to determine if the cash is helpful.

Bip Roberts
Mar 29, 2005

BCR posted:

Before the BUY BUY BUY FOR THE MOTHERLAND ITS SAFE, the stock exchange was bouncing around the 2000 mark, so we're going to go past that to maybe 1900, 1800 before coming back up and hovering around the 2000 mark. So we've got some more stock falling to come.

Unless the crash exposes fundamental problems with the Chinese economy that cause a much deeper recession than would be a proper valuation from two years ago.

Bip Roberts
Mar 29, 2005

icantfindaname posted:

Did they get pensions to begin with? I would just assume all public money disappears into officials' pockets anyways

If Beijing preaches stability then they'll certainly have to do something as the country gets top heavier.

Bip Roberts
Mar 29, 2005

A GIANT PARSNIP posted:

So is this what we have to look forward to? An unstable draw between panicked investors and the CCP's money piles/people forced by the CCP to use their money piles?

I'm guessing this means a select few people are getting seriously rich this week.

Bip Roberts
Mar 29, 2005

My Imaginary GF posted:

Government intervention that secured a future for democratic institutions.

You're 5 words short.

Bip Roberts
Mar 29, 2005

Warcabbit posted:

This is entirely on purpose. I'm not able to say much further, but I _can_ say the published history of failure is entirely by design.

Lol, like the CIA would be able to not brag about something.

Bip Roberts
Mar 29, 2005

Cultural Imperial posted:



http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/SHCOMP:IND

That flat line is pretty loving hilarious. You think something untoward is happening here?

lmao

Is there any way to also see market trading volume?

Bip Roberts
Mar 29, 2005
I'm not sure if China is the worst or best capitalist country.

Bip Roberts
Mar 29, 2005
Are most of the stocks on the listing still frozen out?

Bip Roberts
Mar 29, 2005

blueyedevil posted:

Now zerohedge would say this is the precursor to total global financial collapse but I think it's just another lovely trough in the cycle...

Wow, that's a stunning new take from zerohedge.

Bip Roberts
Mar 29, 2005

Ratoslov posted:

Yeah, I'm not an economist, but isn't the value of a stock share you can't sell $0?

Well unless it's issuing dividends.

Bip Roberts
Mar 29, 2005
Are the legal means of converting currency even a drop in the bucket compared to semi-legal methods like washing money in a Macao casino?

Bip Roberts
Mar 29, 2005

Toplowtech posted:

Wouldn't the market "stabilizes" faster anyway if the chinese would let the market crash "normally" instead of putting it in that slowmo mode where it took 6 months for it to lose 40+%. Because that some slow loving torture. I am starting to think the "chinese century" is just a remake of Japan's lost decade at 1/10th the speed.

Well there's dying a death of a thousand cuts and theres "lets see how high this cat bounces". Bejing is probably doing what they are doing because they have no idea how low it would go in freefall.

Bip Roberts
Mar 29, 2005

Grouchio posted:

Surprising how we haven't updated this since before Trump's election. When do you guys think the economy there will begin to really implode? Next year? 2018? Later?

The macroeconomic cycle isn't that correlated to presidential policy. We're gonna have a recession sooner or later but not as some sort of reaction to trump necessarily.

Bip Roberts
Mar 29, 2005
Have any other markets reacted to this?

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Bip Roberts
Mar 29, 2005

Fojar38 posted:

Edit: Are any exchanges even open right now?

Only New Zealand at this moment.

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