|
Yeet posted:I live in Alberta and I don't give a gently caress about Don Cherry. Kinda feels like he's worn out his welcome though. He's not a legend and a mediocre analyst at best. Teaching point/opportunity to boast about my favorite team, and perhaps assuage some of your fears of the Blues. The Blackhawks have the second highest Fenwick for percentage in the league. Fenwick is a statistic that counts the number of shots on goal and shots that miss the net (excluding blocked shots) for each team; a team's Fenwick for percentage is generally represented by the percentage of the total "Fenwick events," aka shots on goal plus missed shots, that a team has at even strength play compared to their opponents. So, if team A had 40 Fenwick events for in a game during 5-on-5 play, and their opponent had 60, their Fenwick for percentage in that game would be 40%. Why we care is sort of intuitive, and sort of not. So, shooting the puck more than your opponent must be a good thing; that's the intuitive part. The unintuitive part is this: we use Fenwick as a proxy for possession. You can only shoot the puck when you have possession, and, perhaps more importantly, your opponents can't shoot the puck when you have it. So we approximate how much a team has the puck compared to their opponents by measuring what their share of the shot attempts are compared to their opponents. Fenwick has been shown to be a very reliable predictor of success in the NHL, unlike goals. This is because goals are a relatively rare event, while shots happen all the time, and the law of averages says that the larger your sample, the more representative of actual team quality the mean is. In other words: goals are more likely to be outliers than are possession statistics, simply because the sample size is larger. What does this have to do with the Blackhawks/Blues series? Well, you can look at the season series, and see that the Blues won most of the games. Seems like they're the better team, right? Well, maybe not. Two of those wins came in the shootout, which, again, uses relatively few events to determine the outcome of the game, and doesn't really say much about their ability to actually beat the Blackhawks at hockey. Over the season series, the Blackhawks significantly out-possessed the Blues. Like I mentioned earlier, this is a much better predictor of success than the goal counts in an extremely small sample of the regular season series. I wrote a fairly long blog post about why I don't think the blues stand much of a chance of winning this series if anyone's interested. I can post the link upon request. Again, somewhat counter-intuitively, wins aren't even a good predictor of future performance. For example, though the Avalanche had more points than anybody else in their division, they were significantly out-possessed by their opponents over the course of the season. This doesn't bode well for them in the playoffs, and, in my opinion, is going to be the major reason they don't make any serious noise this year. Okay, I'm phone posting, it's late, and I have to work in the morning, but I'd be happy to explain more about so-called "fancy stats" if there's interest. Other things I like to talk about : Corsi: another possession metric that also counts blocked shots, in addition to what Fenwick counts. PDO: sort of a measurement of luck, though I've become kind of skeptical about its actual value when compared to its components, which are... Shooting percentage and save percentage: why volatility in these two percentages can either make teams look better or worse than they actually are over a given sample. Zone starts: measures how often a player is sent out by his coach for an offensive or defensive zone faceoff. Can often explain why some players look better or worse than their possession metrics might indicate. And my favorite things ever: usage charts. Can't really summarize these, but they're fun to look at to get a more holistic view of individual player performance.
|
#
¿
Apr 16, 2014 05:49
|
|
|
|
| # ¿ May 10, 2024 11:04 |
|
|
junidog posted:I'd love to hear more about all the "fancy" stats. I'm glad hand knit posted that stats primer; it's extremely useful. In addition to shot blocking being a repeatable skill, Fenwick correlates better with expected performance (ie wins) than Corsi, and wins are the almighty stat.
|
|
#
¿
Apr 16, 2014 14:21
|
|
|
Shadow Ninja 64 posted:It's worth mentioning that it is actually a penalty for the goalie to skate with the puck past center ice. Hall of Fame goaltender turned coach Patrick Roy got busted for not knowing that once: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=429QFwN8Yy4 It's a penalty for the goalie to cross center ice and participate in the play at all, actually! I thought it was even more harsh, and he couldn't cross the line, but he actually has to participate (play the puck or check somebody, whatever that means) for it to be a penalty. I'm not sure how exactly the NHL defines "check;" you can check someone without ever coming into contact with them simply by being in the way.
|
|
#
¿
Apr 16, 2014 23:40
|
|
|
HOW COULD YOU posted:The sabres this year were one of the worst teams of all time. If it wasn't for their goalie Ryan Miller (who was traded and immediately given a starting position in one of the top teams in the league), they would have undoubtably been the worst. It's gonna be a while before they build up enough to be passable. Colorado is a complete flash in the pan in my opinion. Fourth-worst possession team in the league propped up by unsustainably good shooting and goaltending. Often, an entire season isn't enough of a sample for teams to perform as expected by their possession numbers. Once Colorado runs into Chicago or St. Louis next round, they're probably screwed. Both those teams are significantly better than Colorado, possession-wise.
|
|
#
¿
Apr 18, 2014 16:04
|
|
|
HOW COULD YOU posted:I'm just saying that people have been saying they'd crash and burn any week now for like 3 months, yet they continued to win. They had a strong regular season finish, and I wouldn't be surprised if they had a good playoff run. I feel like a leafs fancy stat denier, but they haven't collapsed yet. We'll see. That's not how regression works, though. They're not any more likely to regress to their "true" ability in one game than any other or, in other words, just because it's gone on for three months doesn't mean that they're either "due" to crash or are actually good. However, at some point, they're going to come back to earth and go back to getting their teeth kicked in. You mentioned the leafs; it's not unheard of for a team to be outrageously lucky over the course of a season. The leafs were hilariously awful this year, though, even though they largely returned the same roster. That's not to say it's ridiculous to think Colorado could win the Cup, because many short series allow for lots of variance from the mean. It's extremely unlikely they win it, but not impossible by any means. To me, it would be foolish to predict anything but Chicago, St. Louis, LA, or San Jose to come out of the west. All have had very good possession numbers and pass the eye test, too. I'll still favor the Blackhawks over all of them, reason being that they start more shifts in the offensive zone than any other team in the league. When you hear announcer's say "tilting the ice," you can actually check that now against statistics and see how true it really is!
|
|
#
¿
Apr 18, 2014 17:26
|
|
|
Admiral Goodenough posted:Tell me about the entry draft. Do teams usually know what player they want beforehand, or do you take the highest ranked player regardless of what your team needs? How are foreign players scouted? What happens to players who aren't drafted? Why does it take so long for some drafted players to start playing with the teams? NHL GM's are still the dumbest of all sports so they often make an objectively incorrect pick. See: every first rounder by jay feaster during his tenure with the flames.
|
|
#
¿
Apr 18, 2014 21:28
|
|
|
Because Ray Shero is a hilariously awful drafter and he has no homegrown role players to play bottom six minutes, leaving Crosby and Malkin to get eaten alive by shutdown defense all the time. Also, their defense is really meh. Fleury is, to me, an obviously bad goalie who, like others have said, had one good season. Steve Mason won the Calder trophy his rookie year, then he was awful for a long time, and probably still is. Teams misjudge this constantly.
|
|
#
¿
Apr 24, 2014 05:57
|
|
|
WoodrowSkillson posted:Dodging the question is not all that different, its not like either of them came out in opposition. Him toeing the party line by saying that is exactly what I meant. He straight up agreed, but its not like he can freely disagree either. Um. Actually he could freely disagree. America and all that jazz. Anyway he and Crosby are the only two other players in the world who can score that backhander Patrick Kane did against the wild. So we can still be on topic of sports.
|
|
#
¿
May 8, 2014 01:41
|
|
|
Austrian mook posted:not my favorite team but Dany Heatly once killed his best friend. And ruined a perfectly good Ferrari/buzz
|
|
#
¿
May 10, 2014 04:01
|
|
|
Abrasive Obelisk posted:Can someone explain why the Florida Panthers are so bad, and when they were good, why? Dale tallon, literally any gm not named dale tallon, respectively. He's done a terrible job even though he had poo poo to begin with.
|
|
#
¿
May 11, 2014 08:26
|
|
|
Y-Hat posted:Geno Malkin's not really gonna get traded... is he? Probably not. He's usually right, but occasionally he'll get really disingenuous to be crass and make a point. It's sort of obnoxious sometimes. And he goes by r-lam around here. Or at least, he used to.
|
|
#
¿
May 15, 2014 04:50
|
|
|
Y-Hat posted:^^^ Yeah, I can't see the Coyotes staying for any length of time after their five-year deal in Glendale is up. By then Seattle will be aching for a big-time tenant in their new arena. Shame that the Panthers are staying because it sounds like a mausoleum there except when the Rangers are in town. Dollar bill thought tv was a fad and it would pass. He was an insufferable shitheel who inexplicably let bob pulford be the gm (he was awful). I grew up in Chicago, never watched the Blackhawks for 16 years before Bill died, Rocky took over, and they stopped being terrible.
|
|
#
¿
May 15, 2014 15:47
|
|
|
Rotten Cookies posted:I could've sworn I saw something about the Sacramento Kings being sold and moving to Seattle? I guess that was just a rumor or just true on the first part and not the second? The vote was also super shady and the maloof brothers, who own(ed?) the Sacramento kings were furious.
|
|
#
¿
May 16, 2014 19:28
|
|
|
Coca Koala posted:Right, I've been following the attempt to get an NBA team in Seattle for a while. But you're talking about it like it's a certainty that the arena is going to be built and that Seattle will want an NHL team for it sometime within the next ten years, and I'm curious where that certainty is coming from. Close to canada, lots of Canucks fans round there, it's "chic" and the NHL sort of fancies itself to be "chic." Fails miserably all the time. See: the guardians, who stole the cup
|
|
#
¿
May 17, 2014 05:03
|
|
|
|
| # ¿ May 10, 2024 11:04 |
|
|
ElwoodCuse posted:Sidney Crosby didn't touch it in 08 but did in 09 and they won. Mark Messier touched it in 1994. Mario lemieux's dick?
|
|
#
¿
May 31, 2014 14:54
|
|