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Pilchenstein posted:
Pound pound coin y'all.
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May 28, 2014 17:16
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I'm not sure why southern LibDems should be more happy with the coalition. In the southwest, at any rate, anyone who was happy with the Tories could have voted for them, while the LibDems benefited from anti-tory tactical voting - a tactic they proved to be useless. So I would have expected SW LibDem voters to feel particularly betrayed.
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May 28, 2014 17:37
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Zohar posted:Cambridge is an exceptional case for a number of reasons -- Huppert has a good local reputation (in the university anyway) and he's always been firmly anti-tuition fees and rebelled against Clegg during the vote. Huppert is great on tuition, drug and social policy. I really wish he wasn't a Lib Dem. If Labour didn't have their no non union background mp rule I like to think he might have joined them. Ah well, another one for the wall.
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May 28, 2014 17:40
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Oh dear me posted:I'm not sure why southern LibDems should be more happy with the coalition. In the southwest, at any rate, anyone who was happy with the Tories could have voted for them, while the LibDems benefited from anti-tory tactical voting - a tactic they proved to be useless. So I would have expected SW LibDem voters to feel particularly betrayed. Up until last Thursday, most Lib Dem losses were in the North and the MDCs.
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May 28, 2014 17:41
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Oh dear me posted:I'm not sure why southern LibDems should be more happy with the coalition. In the southwest, at any rate, anyone who was happy with the Tories could have voted for them, while the LibDems benefited from anti-tory tactical voting - a tactic they proved to be useless. So I would have expected SW LibDem voters to feel particularly betrayed. They were, judging by the other night. The leader of the campaign down there wanted to climb through the camera and rip Alexander's head off for refusing to change anything. Alexander's response was to go all teary, and continue heading for that iceberg.
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May 28, 2014 17:42
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CancerCakes posted:Huppert is great on tuition, drug and social policy. I really wish he wasn't a Lib Dem. If Labour didn't have their no non union background mp rule I like to think he might have joined them. Ah well, another one for the wall. Definitely. And unlike the Tory MP where my parents live (which is even a marginal) I actually see Huppert around outside of campaign season. He gives talks on science and public policy and I think he's officially a lecturer at the physics department as well.
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May 28, 2014 18:00
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Oh dear me posted:I'm not sure why southern LibDems should be more happy with the coalition. In the southwest, at any rate, anyone who was happy with the Tories could have voted for them, while the LibDems benefited from anti-tory tactical voting - a tactic they proved to be useless. So I would have expected SW LibDem voters to feel particularly betrayed. The Lib Dems ran on the left of Labour in much of the North, but to the right of them in much of the South. Hence, Northern voters felt more betrayed. Of course there are lots of affluent rural areas in the North and a few Southern areas where that's not true, but in places like Redcar where they manage to push Labour out in 2010, they're going to pose no further threat and Labour will be practically unopposed. A lot of Southern Lib Dem voters, true centrists, really like the idea of a coalition to force a moderate government, they're really quite happy with what Clegg did. Some will still feel betrayed, some will just go to the Tories, but they might just be able to hold on in a lot of Southern areas. The idea that if you're to the right of Labour you'd just vote Conservative or if you're to the left of the Conservatives you'd vote Labour has been disproved by the Lib Dems' existence. It's really not just tactical voting, there are lots of people (middle class Southerners mainly) who find both parties too radical or otherwise unsatisfactory (a lot fewer after Blair). Trickjaw posted:They were, judging by the other night. The leader of the campaign down there wanted to climb through the camera and rip Alexander's head off for refusing to change anything. Alexander's response was to go all teary, and continue heading for that iceberg. I don't think people like him hate the idea of the coalition, they're angry that they're being electorally punished during midterms for being in government and that none of the parliamentary party care enough to take radical steps, like resigning or leaving the coalition. If their vote share had held up people like him would be singing Clegg's praises. e: Cable just denied he had any knowledge of Oakeshott's polls. Alecto fucked around with this message at 18:09 on May 28, 2014 |
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May 28, 2014 18:02
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Alecto posted:I don't think people like him hate the idea of the coalition, they're angry that they're being electorally punished during midterms for being in government and that none of the parliamentary party care enough to take radical steps, like resigning or leaving the coalition. If their vote share had held up people like him would be singing Clegg's praises. Yeah, I meant the guy was more livid about the fact that the party wouldn't countenance changing EU policy, or getting shot of Clegg. I don't think any grass roots activists were over-joyed with the coalition, but it seems to be the worst case of misselling ever.
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May 28, 2014 18:17
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Alecto posted:The Lib Dems ran on the left of Labour in much of the North, but to the right of them in much of the South. Hence, Northern voters felt more betrayed. I don't think that follows really. When LibDem politicians run to the right, it might be because they think they have the anti-Tory vote in the bag. Turning out not to be anti-Tory at all is going to anger their base, even if they hadn't offered them much else.
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May 28, 2014 18:23
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I don't think Clegg will lose Hallam, for the reasons described above, but I think he will take an absolute pasting, and his seat will be under threat. To get him out you'd need a what - 10% swing away, with it all going Tory AND no Tory loss to UKIP. More than that? A 25% swing to Labour? I don't think it's all that possible, but I do know that the seat will be fought for as if it were truly marginal. There's a couple of reasons I think this. Firstly, one of the things that Labour is very very good at is being on the ground. Canvassing, leafleting, door knocking, vocal support and visits from party leaders, popular figures in the area and even union members are used to calculatedly wring every possible vote out of an area when it's up for grabs. To my knowledge (which is not great on the other parties), they have the most extensive system out of the big three. From personal and anecdotal experience on this, I can say I have canvassed (and probably will again) on behalf of the labour party and have personally been involved in planning sessions that lead to things like "yes, we will just talk to every single person in this ward over the next few days and this is a good use of time and resources". Labour people are dedicated. Labour people on the ground don't differentiate between socialists, new and old labour because they understand we're all on the same side. I've canvassed alongside communists that spit on the ground when I talk about Bevan, old women that still say "he was a good man" when you're talking about Kier Hardie, ex-miners who look like boxers and think blair was the best thing since sliced bread, everyone! Because they understand the only important thing about voting Labour - you can't let the loving tories in. On a local level, Labour can and will target individual wards (even streets!) with different approaches designed to appeal to the voting demographics of the area. They did this very, very successfully in Chesterfield, North Derbyshire, last election. The area went to the Libs in 2001 (of all times) and was so until 2010. Now the voting numbers look strange - the tories were the major gains in the area, and the labour share of the vote even went down, but this is the 2010 "gently caress labour" election, and this is one of Labour's major gains. Before 2001 as I'm sure most of you will know this was Tony Benn's district, and still has a significant ex-miner, unionised and hard left voting base that will consistently vote labour. But still, in the run up to 2010 these voters were turning away from Labour (as many of you have). So, with the need to court both old and new labour voters, the constituency team, aided by that of Engel (north east derbyshire) and Skinner (who on earth doesn't know where skinner comes from) managed to get a firmly Brownite New Labour man into a Liberal seat by getting the name, policies and face of Perkins absolutely everywhere. Labour know how to challenge seats when they can be bothered to, and I know full well that the committed campaigners will travel far in order to fight a seat they think is worth fighting for, even if it's one they think they'll lose. Perkins, Engel, Skinner, Blunkett, Smith, Jarvis, Dugher, Milliband, Champion and Heany are all on (relatively) safe labour seats for the next election and they all hate, hate, HATE that smug bastard sitting on Hallam like some kind of bloody toad. Their staff (those of whom I've met which has to be quite a few by now) are by and large far to the left of their MP, and their hate for the Tories is still stoked by the fires of '85, while their hate for Clegg is now approaching the intensity of the sun. Whether or not Hallam goes Labour or even Tory, there will be hard working, dedicated, fanatical Labour (old, new and even independent) people alongside the socialists, trade unionists and communists of North Derbyshire and South Yorkshire out on the streets in Hallam. They know how to get this done and they will fight like crazy to even lower Clegg's vote by a couple of % extra, just on the principle that he is a goddamn tory bastard in a south yorkshire constituency. I don't think it will work. But they will try, and who knows - it might.
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May 28, 2014 18:25
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Don't forget that all of the Lib Dem vote has to go to Labour and none of the Lib Dem or Labour vote has to go Green (as may happen in the student areas of Hallam). I strongly doubt Hallam will even go marginal.
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May 28, 2014 18:35
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Huppert is also very good on social media. He asked a question in a select committee that I suggested on twitter once. Which was way cool.
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May 28, 2014 18:42
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Oh dear me posted:I don't think that follows really. When LibDem politicians run to the right, it might be because they think they have the anti-Tory vote in the bag. Turning out not to be anti-Tory at all is going to anger their base, even if they hadn't offered them much else. But neither they nor their base are really anti-Tory. It seemed like it in 2010 because it'd been so long since a Tory government people were scared they'd be the nasty party again, just like before Blair people were scared Labour would be socialists. Now that we've had Tories in power many people feel a lot more calm about the prospect of a Tory government, there will be much less anti-Tory rhetoric from the centre. They'll still spin it out in Lib-Con marginals, but the national message is more likely to be about the dangers of allowing Labour to 'destabilise the recovery'. The Lib Dems, broadly speaking, ran as Liberals in the South and social democrats in the North. That's their strength, when they fused in '88 they became a party of two halves, able to campaign on two contradictory fronts. A lot of Southern voters got what they voted for in 2010, not entirely on a policy basis, but on the principle of a centrist government actualised through a coalition or something similar. Whereas Northern voters, largely, expected something radically different to what they got. They've now abandoned their Northern message in the national posturing in favour of the Scandanavia-esque 'vote for us and we'll force a moderate government' pro-coalition message that more strongly characterised their 2010 Southern message of being the even-handed centre. Alecto fucked around with this message at 19:15 on May 28, 2014 |
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May 28, 2014 18:43
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Pork Pie Hat posted:Some of you actually voted just last week for a party that has renationalising the railways in its manifesto; the Greens. I imagine a lot of us voted Green because it was in their manifesto (among other reasons). It certainly wasn't because of a deep antipathy to nuclear power or animal testing in my case.
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May 28, 2014 19:20
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Alecto posted:Now that we've had Tories in power many people feel a lot more calm about the prospect of a Tory government If that were true, wouldn't they have gone up in the polls?
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May 28, 2014 19:40
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Oh dear me posted:If that were true, wouldn't they have gone up in the polls? They have, they've just also gone down more.
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May 28, 2014 19:42
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Racism is on the Rise: NatCen said 30 per cent of more than 2,000 people surveyed said they were "very" or "a little" prejudiced against people of different races. The figures show 3 per cent said they were "very" prejudiced against people of other races and 27 per cent said they were "a little" prejudiced. The figures herald a return to previous levels of racial intolerance before an all-time low in 2001 (25 per cent), NatCen said. ... Racial prejudice peaked in 1987, NatCen research has previously showed, with 38 per cent of people saying they were racially prejudiced. This fell to a low of 25 per cent in 2001 – but then began rising year-by-year – perhaps as a result of the 9/11 terrorist attacks.? And perhaps the ongoing war on Islam, I mean Militant Islamic Terrorists "Back in 1983, when we started British Social Attitudes, it looked as if it was an inexorable decline, it looked like as if it was part of increasing socially liberal Britain, so things like attitudes towards same-sex marriage, having children before marriage and so on, they were all going in one direction," she Ms Young told BBC Radio 4's Today programme. "On this trend, in about 2001, it seemed to change, and we think there are probably two possible things that are driving this. "One, it was a very marked turning round in 2001, so it may well be an impact of 9/11, that people started to feel more fearful, or to do with people feeling concerned about the impact of immigration in their own area or being fearful of the impact of immigration in their own area." http://www.channel4.com/news/racial-prejudice-british-social-attitudes-survey-third?google_editors_picks=true
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May 28, 2014 19:47
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Ummm, doesn't...quote:Racial prejudice peaked in 1987, Conflict with... quote:"Back in 1983, when we started British Social Attitudes, it looked as if it was an inexorable decline Surely if 1987 was the peak, and they started monitoring in 1983, then it was obvious that it was going up sometimes as well?
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May 28, 2014 20:09
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ronya posted:now he's a "consummate politician" rather than a racist outsider
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May 28, 2014 21:42
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SybilVimes posted:Surely if 1987 was the peak, and they started monitoring in 1983, then it was obvious that it was going up sometimes as well? According to this graph I culled from over here, it's been consistently going up and down for the last 30 years 
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May 28, 2014 21:56
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So Labour aren't taking any positions in the Portsmouth Tory cabinet. So, they're effectively voting with UKIP to keep the Tories in for no benefit for themselves. I've asked the leader of the Labour group on the council over Twitter whether he'd still vote for confidence if the Tories entered a formal coalition with UKIP, but it's already looking bad for them. e: the balance on Portsmouth council is now 19 Lib Dem, 12 Tory, 6 UKIP, 4 Labour, 1 Independent. e2: said Labour group leader is trying to say "we're not voting with UKIP, we're voting to remove the Lib Dems!". Of course, the latter needs the former to happen. TinTower fucked around with this message at 22:39 on May 28, 2014 |
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May 28, 2014 22:11
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Crane Fist posted:According to this graph I culled from over here, it's been consistently going up and down for the last 30 years Let's also note that 30% is the median on that graph, so right now racism is no better or worse than usual.
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May 28, 2014 23:33
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ufarn posted:Y'all should come to the EU thread and drown your sorrows with the rest of us. I just now jumped to the last page and see at least three people unironically defending austerity. Is it always like this?
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May 28, 2014 23:36
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Crane Fist posted:According to this graph I culled from over here, it's been consistently going up and down for the last 30 years What's the percentage if we include people who say "I'm not racist, but"
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May 29, 2014 00:01
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I don't think there is any uptick on racism, its just now people now realise its nit acceptable so have gotten more sneaky than being an outright Alf Garnett.
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May 29, 2014 00:05
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I have doubts to the value of asking people whether they have "prejudice"Zephro posted:I think at this point it's just being wilfully bizarre to deny that he's a talented politician, given that he's just achieved something that no other politician has achieved for more than a hundred years. It's not like that's incompatible with him holding very unpleasant views. this is true, but the timing of the switch in perspectives is rather transparent
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May 29, 2014 07:36
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Zephro posted:I think at this point it's just being wilfully bizarre to deny that he's a talented politician, given that he's just achieved something that no other politician has achieved for more than a hundred years. It's not like that's incompatible with him holding very unpleasant views. I think it's interesting that he's able to come across as a genuine populist in the way that the aristocratic Mosely could not. He's definitely upper-middle class, whereas successful fascists have mostly been lower-middle class; I suppose this loosely supports the positioning of UKIP as "not quite fascist, at least not in a way that all the mainstream parties are a bit fascist to a communist".
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May 29, 2014 08:44
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Crane Fist posted:According to this graph I culled from over here, it's been consistently going up and down for the last 30 years IE following the changing narrative of the media. Or one of channel 4's "brave" "documentaries". People in the UK will be as racist as the TV and papers tell them to be. Also ugh at the Stephen Lawrence bit. Black dude just got horrifically murdered by racists. Time for the country to continue getting more racist in sympathy. Regarde Aduck fucked around with this message at 09:59 on May 29, 2014 |
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May 29, 2014 09:56
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Regarde Aduck posted:IE following the changing narrative of the media. Or one of channel 4's "brave" "documentaries". People in the UK will be as racist as the TV and papers tell them to be. Or possibly the coverage of the murder and the subsequent Macpherson Report made people critically re-evaluate their thoughts and feelings? A bit unlikely but considerably more likely than "Hey today I think I'll be a bit more racist than I was before because of that boy getting stabbed". The whole survey is completely and totally pointless anyway because there's a world of difference between someone answering "Yes, I am prejudiced" because they believe in the 14 words and someone answering "Yes, I am prejudiced" because they've been bought up in an environment where prejudice is the norm but they realise now that it's not okay and are doing what they can to fix it. Also of course I'm willing to bet that that UKIP councillor who said Lenny Henry should go be proud in a black country would deny vehemently that he was a racist, as would shitloads of supporters of apartheid and segregation.
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May 29, 2014 10:37
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Nearly time for a new OP. Wasn't someone going to do a parody one? That sounded fun.
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May 29, 2014 11:00
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Bozza posted:Nearly time for a new OP. Wasn't someone going to do a parody one? That sounded fun. mememememe, over here, mememememe Remind me to finish it off with pictures and poo poo. Know I know what to do while my washing washes.
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May 29, 2014 11:54
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Crane Fist posted:According to this graph I culled from over here, it's been consistently going up and down for the last 30 years Is that even a statistically significant variation? It ranges fairly solidly within the 30s for most of the time. I mean, they place emphasis on 9/11 and the subsequent supposed change, but leave out reference to a British attacks, 7/7, which causes very little change(or at least a more subtle change), or the gruesome and inflammatory murder of Lee Rigby, yet they find a correlation with the 2008 crash and the 2012 Olympics. This isn't to say anything about actual racism, just this survey/graph.
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May 29, 2014 12:45
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HortonNash posted:Is that even a statistically significant variation? It ranges fairly solidly within the 30s for most of the time. I would say that loads of "normal" people in the UK had no real idea about islamic terrorism (in relation too the west) before 9/11. Things like 7/7 and lee rigby were more of a reinforcement rather than a spark. I agree about the actual statistics on the graph though (it seems a very hard thing to measure accurately).
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May 29, 2014 12:59
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The upswings all coincide with world cup years, and british football fans are notoriously terrible (and terrible losers).
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May 29, 2014 13:09
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SybilVimes posted:The upswings all coincide with world cup years, and british football fans are notoriously terrible (and terrible losers). It was falling in 1990, about as low as it's ever been in 1998, and dropped relative to the previous year in both 2006 and 2010. Also, there are major international football tournaments every two years (the Euros are a pretty big deal...) - if international football had anything significant to do with it, you'd expect a much more regular pattern. I don't think it's a particularly meaningful or informative dataset.
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May 29, 2014 13:20
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Regarde Aduck posted:Also ugh at the Stephen Lawrence bit. Black dude just got horrifically murdered by racists. Time for the country to continue getting more racist in sympathy. You're presuming that all the people polled were white. I can see a lot of black people being inclined to racial antipathy after the Lawrence murder.
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May 29, 2014 13:44
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Can I just post about how truly amazing the London Ambulance Service are. Yesterday my second niece was born, but it was a rather harrowing experience. I get a calm call from my brother asking me to come over and look after my niece as the new baby is on the way, so I drive over (about a ten minute trip) expecting to be greeted at the door by my brother and sister-in-law with bag packed ready to go to King's. Instead I walk into a total nightmare. My SIL is on the bathroom floor screaming and crying ("please push it back in!" was screamed at one point), my brother is trying to reassure her and an 18 month old and is losing his mind. I take my niece and calm her down and bro rings for an ambulance. The 999 operator has to talk him through delivering the baby. The screams get so bad, I pick up my increasingly distressed niece and go outside to wait for the ambulance. 7 minutes after the 999 call the paramedic rapid response car turns up with two paramedics and I direct them up the stairs and stay outside waiting for the ambulance. 5 minutes later the ambulance, with two more paramedics arrives. This is all in South London rush hour. The first set of paramedics arrive in time to complete the delivery. All four remain on site for four hours until the midwife (who takes an hour to arrive) gives the all clear. During the hours that the medics were on site they looked after my SIL insanely well, but they also checked on the rest of us to make sure we were okay. They came and chatted with me and reassured my little 18mo niece, at one point one of the medics sat and played with her. Just wanted to post something good for a change. HortonNash fucked around with this message at 14:10 on May 29, 2014 |
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May 29, 2014 14:00
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HortonNash posted:"please push it back in!" Congratulations! A story your family will be telling for years 
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May 29, 2014 14:49
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FiftySeven posted:Congratulations! A story your family will be telling for years I said the same when my little brother was born.
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May 29, 2014 15:14
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 the system works http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/05/29/middle-class-uk-proletariat-elite_n_5408916.htmlAn Underpaid Journalist At The Huffington Post posted:UK Will Be Left With A 'Tiny Elite And Huge Proletariat' In 30 Years, Warns Expert No class except elites! Then, R E V O L U T I O N.
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