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LemonDrizzle
Mar 28, 2012

neoliberal shithead
More housing stuff- the Bank of England and Treasury are looking into the possibility of replacing their current preferred measure of inflation (CPI) with one that accounts for housing costs:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10799758/Treasury-may-change-inflation-target-to-include-housing-costs.html

quote:

Britain's headline measure of inflation may be modified to include housing costs, after a top Bank of England official revealed it had held further talks with the Treasury about switching to a more “useful” gauge of price rises.
Andy Haldane, the Bank’s incoming chief economist, told MPs on Wednesday that Bank staff had held technical discussions with the Treasury to assess whether it would be appropriate to switch the Bank's 2pc target from the consumer prices index (CPI) to the new CPIH measure, which was introduced in March 2013. CPIH includes housing costs such as mortgage interest payments, which represent about 10pc of consumer spending.

...

CPI inflation stood at 1.6pc in March, compared with CPIH inflation of 1.5pc. The retail prices index (RPI) measure of inflation, which is no longer classed as an official statistic by the ONS, but is still used to calculate pay deals and fare increases, stood at 2.5pc.

It's surprising that CPIH inflation was lower than CPI last month, although I suppose with ultra-low interest rates and the fact that most mortgage holders will have bought at pre-bubble prices, it will be some time before aggregate mortgage payments reflect increases in current sales prices.


Also, Shelter and KPMG have released their full report into the state of the housing market - the Graun have summarized its contents here.

quote:

The average price of a house in England could double in the next decade and hit more than £900,000 by 2034, unless there is a radical new housebuilding programme to provide nearly a quarter of a million new homes a year, a report claims today.

...

The report urges the next government to take a series of actions which Shelter and KPMG say could make a difference within a single parliament. The key measures include giving planning authorities the power to create "New Homes Zones" where there would be no development tax and landowners would be able to invest their assets in exchange for shares in any future increases in value. Other measures suggested to ease the property market include unlocking stalled sites by charging council tax on homes that should have been built after a reasonable period; and introducing a new National Housing Investment Bank to provide low cost, long-term loans for housing providers.

The recommendations in the report itself are actually a bit more radical than the ones the Graun chose to highlight - they also want mandatory national minimum space standards for new homes and major increases in funding for housing associations and council house building. Likelihood of this stuff actually happening: questionable.

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LemonDrizzle
Mar 28, 2012

neoliberal shithead
The telegraph explains the housing woes of young people today: they are all lazy rentailures who just can't be arsed to spend time hunting for a good place.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/women/womens-life/10801103/Dont-blame-the-recession-Im-moving-back-home-because-Im-lazy.html

quote:

So, to all the parents getting those phone calls from their former babies glumly announcing they’ll ‘need to move home for a while’, don’t automatically assume it’s because of the housing crisis. Because if these cunning kids are anything like my friends and I, it’ll actually be because they were too lazy to find a flat and they just fancy some free lodging and veggies. I hope my mum isn't reading this.

LemonDrizzle
Mar 28, 2012

neoliberal shithead

KKKlean Energy posted:

Lost amidst the sandwich chat:


This is excellent but I'm having trouble interpreting it, probably because I'm thick. What exactly is the zero-to-nine stuff in columns F-AG?

I believe that's showing how each party's vote gets divided up under the D'Hondt system - basically, if a region has multiple MEPs to allocate, they're divvied up between the competing parties on the basis of V/(N+1) where V is the number of votes the party got and N is their current number of MEPs. So to begin with, N=0 for all parties and the first MEP is simply allocated to the party with the most votes. That party now has N=1 while all other parties still have N=0, so the first party's vote share is divided by two and the next MEP is allocated by comparing the first party's modified vote total to all other parties' unmodified totals, etc. etc.

LemonDrizzle
Mar 28, 2012

neoliberal shithead

twoot posted:

On the subject of property bubbles The Torygraph has a translation of China's biggest property developer talking about their property bubble situation; http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ambroseevans-pritchard/100027199/chinese-anatomy-of-a-property-boom-on-its-last-legs/

Anti-corruption measures leading to the elite offloading their ill-gotten properties at enormous discounts, facilitating the bursting of a property bubble. There goes our fake recovery.

I suspect that it's quite a bit easier to hide a house in London from the Chinese authorities than one in Beijing or Shanghai.

LemonDrizzle
Mar 28, 2012

neoliberal shithead
The coalition has significantly beefed up the Green Deal system, which subsidizes the installation of measures to make homes more energy efficient. As of June, you'll be able to get £1000 cashback (£1500 if you're moving into a new place or bought within the last year) for installing things like double glazing, cavity wall insulation, or a new A-rated boiler. Do your bit to increase the energy efficiency of the nation's housing stock/reduce your bills/get free money, etc.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/7600-to-make-your-home-more-energy-efficient

LemonDrizzle fucked around with this message at 11:16 on May 3, 2014

LemonDrizzle
Mar 28, 2012

neoliberal shithead

Renaissance Robot posted:

Also the beeb did one of their stupid opinion spots the other day, asking people (mainly commuters it seemed like) on a ferry to France "have you had enough of the EU". For some stupid loving reason they decided to show a majority answering yes.
It's possible that the "stupid reason" was that a majority of the respondents did in fact say yes.

LemonDrizzle
Mar 28, 2012

neoliberal shithead
I can see no problem whatsoever with privatizing the organization that has the final say over the ownership of all land in the country.

LemonDrizzle
Mar 28, 2012

neoliberal shithead

Renaissance Robot posted:

I won't bother making a bet that whoever buys the place will do exactly that in order to turn a quick profit; nobody here would take it.

It's a mountain with land that's only fit for grazing sheep (i.e. it's too steep/rocky to do anything more valuable with). There's no "quick profit" to be had; anyone buying it will be getting it purely as a status symbol.

LemonDrizzle
Mar 28, 2012

neoliberal shithead
In just over two weeks' time, GPs will be voting on a proposal stating that it will be necessary to charge patients for appointments and that free at the point of delivery healthcare is unsustainable, at least for general practice.

Here's the text of the proposition:

http://bma.org.uk/-/media/files/pdf...ith%20cover.pdf

quote:

27 AGENDA COMMITTEE to be proposed by WILTSHIRE That conference:
(i) believes that general practice is unsustainable in its current format
(ii) believes that it is no longer viable for general practice to provide all patients with all NHS services free at the
point of delivery

(iii) urges the UK governments to define the services that can and cannot be accessed in the NHS
(iv) calls on GPC to consider alternative funding mechanisms for general practice
(v) calls on GPC to explore national charging for general practice services with the UK governments.

27a WILTSHIRE That conference believes the time is right for a fee for service for general practice.
27b AVON That conference calls on GPC to explore with the Department of Health the alternatives to a completely free at the point
of access system.
27c GLOUCESTERSHIRE That conference believes the time has come to impose a national charge for consultations as part of a
strategy of demand management.
27d KINGSTON AND RICHMOND That conference believes that alternative funding mechanisms for general practice must be explored
in order to preserve universal general practice.
27e GLOUCESTERSHIRE That conference requires the GPC to consider a fundamental change to the contract, such as an alternative
system of funding, as for instance that used in Guernsey.
27f MID MERSEY That conference believes as with dentistry and ophthalmology services, it is no longer viable for general practice to
provide all NHS services free at the point of delivery for all patients.

This isn't the only funding-related proposal that will be addressed during the conference - there are several arguing for more central government funding in general and additional support for GPs in rural/disadvantaged communities in particular - but it's interesting that there seems to be at least a sizeable minority of GPs who are quite gung ho about killing off free care.

LemonDrizzle
Mar 28, 2012

neoliberal shithead
The Mail actually has a pretty good article on the GP appointment fees vote: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2621886/GPs-vote-charging-patients-10-25-appointment.html

quote:

The idea is to deter patients from missing consultations – a problem that costs £160million a year. The fees – possibly between £10 and £25 – would be the first since the NHS was founded in 1948.
One GP said an entire morning's work was lost when 14 patients failed to turn up. Others believe the free care offered by the Health Service is unsustainable in the face of an aging and increasingly obese population.
It is feared however that charging would stop patients seeking help or encourage them to go to overstretched casualty units.

...

It is likely that the elderly, children, pregnant women and others will be exempt or charged less.
Patients could be charged when they book an appointment – an incentive to turn up.
The GP practice would pocket the money – as happens with charges for writing letters or signing forms – to be reinvested into services.

...

Chaand Nagpaul, chairman of the British Medical Association's GP committee and a family doctor in North West London, said: 'The BMA policy still is that we do not support charging patients because it is against the NHS's care being provided at the point of delivery. Anyone who is ill should not have to consider cost as a barrier to seeing their GP.'

...

Dr Nigel Watson, chief executive of the Wessex local medical committee, which is proposing the motion, said: 'Personally I feel that services should be free at the point of access.
'The problem we have at the moment is that the resources that are available don't meet the demand. This is about having a debate about how we move things forward.
'General practice is still seen around the world as one of the strengths of the NHS. To continue this and to build on out-of-hospital care we need more resources.
'If that can't be obtained by taxation it's going to have to come either from closing hospitals down – which is incredibly difficult – or resources need to come from elsewhere.
'Many of us wouldn't want it to come from charging patients but that's why we need a debate.'

There's also the obligatory NHS-bashing quote from a Taxpayers' Alliance spokesthing in the full article.

LemonDrizzle
Mar 28, 2012

neoliberal shithead
Labour made a thing.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N1BaQkH_q2s

It's... well, it's a thing. Almost on par with the BNP's thing.

LemonDrizzle
Mar 28, 2012

neoliberal shithead

Thrasophius posted:

Wait I thought halal meat was just when the animal was killed in the name of Allah? So killing a chicken in the exact same way you normally do but saying Allah a few times is inhumane? I seriously wonder what is going through the minds of these people.
AFAIK, the rules of halal slaughter mean that animals can't be stunned before being killed so the animal will suffer more than is necessary.

LemonDrizzle
Mar 28, 2012

neoliberal shithead
Barclays will be cutting 19,000 jobs worldwide and 10,000 in the UK by 2016: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-27321589

quote:

Barclays is to cut 14,000 jobs this year - half of them in the UK - as part of a new strategy, the bank has said.

The number is higher than the 10,000 to 12,000 jobs that the bank said earlier this year that it wanted to cut.

The investment bank, which has been hit by a slowdown in the demand for government and company debt, will lose about 7,000 jobs by 2016.

In total, there will 19,000 jobs lost at Barclays by 2016, with about 10,000 to go in the UK.

Barclays will also set up a "bad bank" which will eventually sell or run down £115bn of non-core operations.

These include £90bn of investment bank assets and all of its European retail banking operations, amounting to £16bn of assets.

That's gonna hurt.

LemonDrizzle
Mar 28, 2012

neoliberal shithead

Trickjaw posted:

Actually, quick question, with UKIP saying about immigration discriminated against New Zealand, Canada, etc for braain wizardry, what is the policy for immigration from commonwealth countries? Or is that just a loose trade agrrement and a club of the Queen's mates?

NZ citizens do not automatically have the right to come and live/work in the UK for more than a few months. They can come over very easily if they have a parent or grandparent who is or was a UK citizen. If not, they will need to have a job already lined up, be very rich (or potentially about to become very rich), be young and looking to take a working holiday, or be in a long term relationship with a UK citizen who has enough money to support them.

LemonDrizzle
Mar 28, 2012

neoliberal shithead
Labour are trying to make hay out of the situation in the property rental market by calling a vote to ban letting agencies from charging fees to tenants: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-27323352

quote:

Labour are to call a vote in the Commons in an attempt to ban letting agents from charging fees to tenants.

Party leader Ed Miliband said people buying a house do not pay agents, but people who rent do and Labour was standing up for "generation rent".

The proposal will be tabled as an amendment to the Consumer Rights Bill in the Commons on Tuesday.

The Association of Residential Letting Agents said it was "deeply concerned" by Labour's proposals.

...

But Ian Potter, managing director of the Association of Residential Letting Agents, said Labour's plans could have an "adverse affect on tenants".

He said: "The challenge we have today is an unregulated market and a worrying lack of supply.

I love the doublethink from the ARLA representative - "the problem is that the market is unregulated. therefore, this regulation must not be introduced."

LemonDrizzle
Mar 28, 2012

neoliberal shithead
That's actually pretty well done. All glory to Smashy, the EU's tyrant land-octopus!

e: wait, it turned poo poo after Smashy did his bit. Bring back Smashy!

LemonDrizzle
Mar 28, 2012

neoliberal shithead
Watching the EU commission presidential candidates debating tonight, the size of the gulf between what Cameron wants/aims to extract from the EU and what the prospective presidents want is just mind-bogglingly vast. Even the conservative candidate was arguing for things like a unified Euro army, a unified European immigration policy for non-EU citizens, and funds to support EU citizens to migrate in the union to find employment.

LemonDrizzle
Mar 28, 2012

neoliberal shithead

QuantumCrayons posted:

I would assume that you become in the running for EU president either by being super pro-federalism or being super anti-EU, depending on the climate for the group as a whole. I can't see someone being a candidate and saying "well I like the EU but I don't want us to be too close" which is what the main three parties all are (except possibly the Lib-Dems?).

Well, the Commission is supposed to represent and act for the EU as a whole (compared to the Parliament which represents the citizens and the Council which represents the national governments) so yes, you do have to be broadly in favour of the thing to get enough support to be a credible candidate. The hard nationalist/eurosceptic parties are only predicted to win ~140 seats in the Parliament (out of 766) and haven't nominated any presidential candidates in any event (unsurprisingly, they're staggeringly incapable of working with one-another), so the candidates' positions range from cautious support of EU expansion to "federalization will fix everything, cure cancer, and bring about the second coming."

LemonDrizzle
Mar 28, 2012

neoliberal shithead
Why a UK rather than US MBA? You're a US citizen, right?

LemonDrizzle
Mar 28, 2012

neoliberal shithead
The regional samples in those polls (including the Scottish one) are tiny - the national estimates are meaningful but the regional ones will have gargantuan margins of error.

e: beaten by IceAge

Coohoolin posted:

Do it in Scotland for chrissakes.
As a US citizen he wouldn't be eligible for free undergraduate tuition, and I'm not sure that you can get free tuition for an MBA in Scotland in any event. Also, Scotland doesn't have any top drawer business schools.

LemonDrizzle
Mar 28, 2012

neoliberal shithead
Hmmm, the last two proper Scottish polls are ~3 weeks old and put UKIP on 10%, so Farage is right - they only need a very small swing to nick an MEP from the SNP.

LemonDrizzle
Mar 28, 2012

neoliberal shithead

IceAgeComing posted:

They'd be nicking one from the Tories I imagine. 2 SNP/2 Labour are guaranteed: the fights are between SNP/Labour for a third one and between the Tories/UKIP for the final one...

I'm not so sure about that - I suspect that the Tories are already at their floor in terms of support and the only Scots who are still voting for them are so thoroughly dyed in the wool as to be immune to UKIP's charms. I think they're more likely to pick off a bit of soft Labour or SNP support; taking a percentage point or so from either (or ~0.5% from both) would give a 2/2/1/1 split.

e: looking at the polls again, SNP support has fallen by 7-10 percentage points since the start of the year while the Labour and UKIP votes are up by 3 or 4% each and no other party's support has increased appreciably so it does seem that UKIP has some pull on the SNP vote.

LemonDrizzle fucked around with this message at 15:24 on May 10, 2014

LemonDrizzle
Mar 28, 2012

neoliberal shithead

Seaside Loafer posted:

I was just thinking practically. The couple of pence I might make in interest will be allot less usefull than the 30 quid fine I get for going overdrawn, make sense?

They can't discriminate on religious grounds. They can discriminate on financial ones.

LemonDrizzle
Mar 28, 2012

neoliberal shithead

Seaside Loafer posted:

To make it clear, I'm simply suggesting that if you are piss poor like me this is the go to account type. No you don't get any interest but it would be gently caress all anyway but if you cock up you don't get a fee. That sounds perfect to me.
What I meant was that if you are so poor that "no overdraft fees" is a meaningful attraction, the bank is unlikely to be interested in letting you open an account in the first place.

LemonDrizzle
Mar 28, 2012

neoliberal shithead

TinTower posted:

They're called the Labour Party.
During its last tenure in government, the Labour party invested heavily in the NHS, the education system, and social housing, and also significantly expanded the welfare state via the tax credit system.

Tories indeed.

e - per the IFS:

quote:

Tax and benefit changes implemented between May 1997 and April 2010 represent a net
‘takeaway’ from the public or a boost to the government’s finances of £7.1 billion, costing
each household about £270, on average, in 2010---11, relative to the conventional ‘unchanged
policy’ baseline the Treasury uses in Budgets and Pre-Budget Reports.
• The £7.5 billion ‘giveaway’ in Labour’s first term and the £6.4 billion ‘takeaway’ in its second
were highly progressive relative to this same ‘unchanged policy’ baseline, significantly
reducing the incomes of richer households and increasing those of poorer ones. The £8.1
billion takeaway in Labour’s third term comes mostly from the richest households, with the
incomes of the rest little changed on average.
• Labour’s measures have particularly benefited low-income families with children and
pensioners receiving tax credits or means-tested benefits.

LemonDrizzle
Mar 28, 2012

neoliberal shithead

Alecto posted:

They also engaged in a lot of privatisation (prisons, NHS, planned the Royal Mail privatisation), huge deregulation of the financial sector, were ridiculously fond of PFI, presided over a rise in inequality (some of which has to be attributed to their complacency over redistributive tax and tax avoidance), egged on the housing bubble, introduced workfare, introduced academies. Then of course the really, really big one, for which they deserve to be unelectable for a generation, Iraq. They weren't conservative, they were generally better than the modern Tories (on quite a few issues worse than the pre-Thatcher Tories, though), but they weren't leftist either. If you want centrist liberalism, then that's fine, but I think most here want something a good deal more leftist than that, and I don't think we should start snarking people for being dissatisfied with New Labour; there's a wealth of reasons to be.

I'm certainly not saying that New Labour were perfect, but it's absurd to say that they or the modern Labour party were/are equivalent to Tories. On top of that, a couple of your criticisms are inaccurate or without context. It's simply not true that Labour deregulated the financial sector - that happened during Thatcher's Big Bang. Labour actually significantly increased its regulation (between the Big Bang and the creation of the FSA, the sector was largely self-regulated). Their failure in that respect wasn't that they removed regulations, it was that they didn't go far enough when creating new ones and were blind to systemic risk.

I also think that PPP/PFI is maligned for rather unrealistic reasons and tends to be criticized without any attempt to account for the political climate. When New Labour took power, a lot of the national infrastructure had been left to rot for the best part of two decades and was badly in need of investment. The electorate was very supportive of such investment, but rabidly opposed to paying for it through taxation or allowing it to be funded by heavy borrowing, so Labour was stuck. PFI was a way of squaring that circle - not an economically efficient way by any means, but just about the only one that was politically viable at the time.

e: also, they weren't at all "complacent over redistributive tax" - their tax changes were quite heavily redistributive.

LemonDrizzle fucked around with this message at 09:00 on May 12, 2014

LemonDrizzle
Mar 28, 2012

neoliberal shithead

Alecto posted:

Well, I strongly disagree that their regulation increases were at all 'significant'; they were evidentially minor, or the crash would obviously have looked very different for us. Sitting and watching a house burn might not be as bad as starting the fire, but I'm not going to delude myself that I should be grateful for that. You could at most say they chucked a couple of watering cans onto the fire.


I have little sympathy for a government too scared to lead, especially after the kind of win they saw in 97, instead opting for an ill-thought out and risky scheme that left many public services not only insolvent, but abetted their privatisation.

Look, someone who was on, say, the left of the '70s Labour party is so far to the left of the modern Labour party, that from their perspective there is not significant difference between them and the Conservatives.

Everyone agrees that financial regulations around the world should have been a lot tougher than they were in the runup to the crash. However, "deregulation" means "removing regulations." Labour didn't do that, and in fact added several where none had previously existed. As such you can't really blame them for "huge deregulation of the financial sector" unless you're using some creative new definition of the word.

Your take on the situation in '97 is also almost completely ahistorical. A large part of the reason Labour won that thumping majority was precisely because they pledged not to exceed the previous government's spending targets. Look at what happened in '92: the Tories were hugely unpopular, had recently tried to ram through a policy that literally sparked riots and helped to bring down the Prime Minister, and still won the general election because the electorate was afraid that a Labour government would go on a tax-and-spend binge. There's a reason that this advert is held up as a brutally effective masterpiece:



If Labour hadn't made their promises to control spending, it's entirely possible that they'd have managed a humiliating repeat of '92 and lost an election that they should have won comfortably. Similarly, if they broke their promises after taking power, they'd have been a crippled one term government and a party with no electoral future.

As for Labour's left from the 1970s, I wouldn't be at all surprised to find that they were incapable of differentiating between plainly different things. After all, back in the day they were incapable of differentiating between good politics and self-destructive unthinking tribalistic bullshit that resulted in the near-absolute destruction of trade union power and almost two decades of unbroken Tory rule.

LemonDrizzle
Mar 28, 2012

neoliberal shithead

Oh dear me posted:

John Major squeaked a small majority, and his government was subsequently plagued by corruption scandals, Black Monday, Euro-quarrels and stupid campaigns about highway cones and back to basics. Labour could have won in 1997, pretty much whatever they said.
It's easy to sit on the sidelines when someone does something and dismissively say "oh, that wasn't difficult, anyone could've done that." Unfortunately, merely asserting it after the fact doesn't make it so. You could equally well argue that 1992 was a gimme for any not-Tories except whoops, that turned out not to be true.

Zephro posted:

I think you're underselling the problems of PFI...
That certainly isn't my intention, and I'm not claiming that PFI is an optimal solution by any stretch of the imagination. However, given that Labour couldn't tax and couldn't borrow on the capital markets during their first term, they didn't exactly have a lot of alternatives; it was PFI or let the infrastructure continue to rot.

LemonDrizzle
Mar 28, 2012

neoliberal shithead

Alecto posted:

This is more than a little revisionist. Everyone forgets John Smith...

The core of New Labour's campaign was that they would do essentially what the Conservatives had been doing, but with less scandal and less infighting over Europe. Whether the other bits like tax credits and the minimum wage level were dabbling round the edges or hugely important is, yet again, a matter of perspective. Given that, 'New Labour and the Conservatives are essentially the same' is an opinion that someone could legitimately hold, just as 'New Labour and the Conservatives are very different' is also a legitimate opinion.

...

Politicians should just all sit in the centre and do whatever the gently caress flies through the mind of the average Joe this week, none of this leading, persuading, educating nonsense. Just like Thatcher, she certainly didn't secure a big election win off of a radical platform, nor did she do anything radical while in office. Yep, centrism is truly the only way to go.

Painfully over the top sarcasm aside, are you really going to deny the relativity of a spectrum and simply say people not in the middle have different opinions because they're stupid? You can't tell people that their perceptions are wrong, only have your own differing ones.

People forget John Smith because he died 3 years out from the General Election. He may well have been able to win had he lived, but you can't just point to a big poll lead at that stage and go "see, it would've been a sure thing!" - poll leads that far out are only slightly more useful than artfully arranged chicken entrails when it comes to predicting election results. If that weren't the case, Michael Foot would have killed Thatcherism in '83 and we wouldn't be having this discussion. Debating might-have-beens is a little pointless at the best of times, but after four back to back losses I don't think it's at all reasonable to just blithely assume that Labour could've rocked up in 1997 with the same approach and been confident of victory.

I don't have a problem with radicalism as long as it's backed with a solid electoral majority. However, I'll always take a winning centrist who will give me at least some things that I like over a serial loser with a nice platform.

As for "legitimate opinions" and perceptions, I absolutely disagree that all perspectives are equally valid, reasonable, or useful. I mean, if you're determined to selectively pick up on similarities and overlook major points of difference, you can argue that Tony Benn was basically an evil hybrid of Trotsky, Stalin, and Mao (and people did more or less make that argument!).


ronya posted:

I struggle to believe that the PPPs were only ever intended as a temporary measure to acquire bonds, given the way they were set up (as long-term partnerships, but with aggressively narrowed options and existence outside of state discretion). I mean, acquiring funding through a credible commitment to only use it for infrastructure rather than welfare/military/generalissimo's Swiss account etc. is a legit public goal, but it's also one with a well-known solution, i.e., a national development bank. Having the supposedly insolvent/incredible state conduct detailed intervention into the behavior of PPPs via contract would undermine the supposed bond-inducing credibility.
I'm not too familiar with the typical workings of development banks - would a government be able to keep their borrowing and the costs of whatever guarantees they'd require off the public sector balance sheet in the same way they do/did with PFI projects?

LemonDrizzle fucked around with this message at 16:56 on May 12, 2014

LemonDrizzle
Mar 28, 2012

neoliberal shithead

Alecto posted:

It is important to remember John Smith because it damages the Blairite line of 'my way or unelectability'. It doesn't kill it, but it definitely damages it; if it can't be said that Smith would definitely win (it can't), then it also can't be said that he definitely would have lost. Therefore, it can't be said the Blair was definitely the only leader who could win in '97.
Well, it's true that we can't definitively say whether Smith would have won or lost, or whether he'd have basically done what Blair did in government or tried to chart a different course. We also can't say whether or not cannibal lesbians from outer space would have descended on the planet if Smith had lived. I'm still not sure what's to be gained by debating might-have-beens, though. All I'm saying is that given Labour's serial failure between 1979 and 1996, it was pretty clear that big changes were needed if the party was to have any chance of assembling a workable majority, and that most of New Labour's decisions are understandable and justifiable given the context in which they were made.


ronya posted:

The degree of micromanagement of PPPs in the UK indicates that the governments (Tory then New Labour both) were not really pursuing a surrender of control in order to obtain credibility to creditors, inasmuch as pushing debt off the common fisc and onto specific PFIs in order to use the debt to discipline the PFI public partner and its choice of agents. The NHS and the LEAs can't keep demanding funding for specific projects (which would make it easier for them to summon a political coalition in favour, even if that particular project is not sensible), rather they are given a lump sum and have to maximize its use over the next 30 years.

was there ever a credibility problem? The yields on Treasuries across the 90s were pretty darned high, but they were lower than in the late 80s. And PFIs never had interest rates that were dramatically lower than treasury yields.
I think I may have expressed myself badly earlier - when I said New Labour couldn't borrow, I didn't mean that market credibility issues would have prevented them from doing so (as you note, interest rates weren't *that* high, the deficit wasn't unmanageable, and the public finances in general were in no worse state than those of, say, Germany) , I meant that breaking their spending promises would have had ruinous consequences at the next election. The big attraction of PFI was that it let them spend without the resulting obligations going anywhere near the public sector balance sheet so they could trumpet their infrastructure investment while still showing lots of nice budget surpluses (or, in their later terms, comparatively small deficits).

LemonDrizzle
Mar 28, 2012

neoliberal shithead
The Tories have come up with their response to Miliband's plans to increase security of tenure for renters and ban lettings agency fees: https://www.gov.uk/government/news/fees-transparency-to-ensure-a-fair-deal-for-landlords-and-tenants

quote:

Letting agents will be required to publish full details of the fees they charge under plans announced by government ministers today (13 May 2014). The move ensures a fair deal for landlords and tenants, closing off the opportunity for a small minority of rogue agents to impose unreasonable, hidden charges. The common sense approach avoids excessive state regulation which would push up rents for tenants.

Currently, the Advertising Standards Authority only requires letting agents to list compulsory charges to the tenant upfront in the process. Those letting agents who are found to have imposed hidden charges face little more than being “named and shamed” on the Advertising Standards Authority’s website.

But the government wants to go further than this, and will require all letting agents to publish a full tariff of their fees - both on their websites and prominently in their offices. Anyone who does not comply with these new rules will face a fine – a much stricter penalty than currently exists.

Today’s plans add to the work the government is already doing to offer stronger protections for landlords and tenants in the private rented sector, whilst avoiding excessive regulation which would force up rents and reduce choice.

Housing Minister, Kris Hopkins, said:

The vast majority of letting agents provide a good service to tenants and landlords. But we are determined to tackle the minority of rogue agents who offer a poor service. Ensuring full transparency and banning hidden fees is the best approach, giving consumers the information they want and supporting good letting agents.

Short-term gimmicks like trying to ban any fee to tenants means higher rents by the back door. Excessive state regulation and waging war on the private rented sector would also destroy investment in new housing, push up prices and make it far harder for people to find a flat or house to rent.

Choices taken away by excessive regulation: do you want this badly maintained overpriced shitbox or that one?

LemonDrizzle
Mar 28, 2012

neoliberal shithead

Gonzo McFee posted:

So with the Bank of England talking about rising inflation that's pretty much Osbourne's housing bubble hosed, right?

The Bank's been saying that interest rates will start to rise slowly some time in 2015 for several months now, and nothing they've said today seems to change that.

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/may/14/bank-of-england-interest-rates-inflation-report

quote:

The Bank of England appeared to quash speculation of an early rise in interest rates, leaving its growth and inflation forecasts unchanged.

Policymakers at Threadneedle Street used the Bank's latest quarterly inflation report to signal that it remained in no rush to raise rates, with the first rise expected around the time of the general election in the second quarter of 2015. Bank rate has been on hold at the all-time low of 0.5% since March 2009 and the governor Mark Carney said on Wednesday any rate rises would be "gradual and limited".

The report said it was not yet clear whether the recovery was on a sustainable footing. The forecasts showed members of the rate-setting monetary policy committee still believe there is 1-1.5% of spare capacity in the economy to be used up, following the UK's below-par performance at the onset of the crisis in 2008.

LemonDrizzle
Mar 28, 2012

neoliberal shithead

Gonzo McFee posted:

He probably went to find out what happened to the housing bubble after Mark Carney left to go to England to prop up our housing bubble.

The Canadian bubble is still going strong, so apparently Carney builds to last.

LemonDrizzle
Mar 28, 2012

neoliberal shithead

Trickjaw posted:

At least Ben Gummer can blame those cjd burgers his Dad made him eat.
I was going to make that crack but it turns out it was his daughter who was made to eat the diseased burger to help Daddy's career, not his son.

LemonDrizzle
Mar 28, 2012

neoliberal shithead
Sometimes the headline and strapline tell you everything you need to know: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/investing/buy-to-let/10832848/Lending-to-landlords-up-69pc-in-a-year.html

quote:

Lending to landlords up 69pc in a year
Buy-to-let is the fastest-growing part of the mortgage market, according to lenders' latest data

LemonDrizzle
Mar 28, 2012

neoliberal shithead

twoot posted:

the only seat which is in play will be between the Tories and UKIP. Nobody else really has a chance unless something weird happens with the turnout.
That's not true - there are three outcomes that are possible and plausible: SNP 3/Labour 2/Tories 1, SNP 3/Labour 2/UKIP 1, and SNP 2/Labour 2/Tories 1/UKIP 1.

LemonDrizzle
Mar 28, 2012

neoliberal shithead

twoot posted:

The later would happen if the polls have been overstating the SNP's share, which could be the case if their ex-Lib Dems don't turn out. But I'd bet that it goes 3/2/1 with the Tories keeping their seat.
How do you figure? The last reliable poll of Scottish euro voting intentions had it at SNP 33%, Lab 31%, Con 12%, UKIP 10%, Lib Dem 7%, Other 7%. Taking those figures at face value, that means that once the SNP and Labour have taken their first two MEPs, the SNP's corrected vote share drops to 11%, so if the Tories and UKIP both poll above 11%, they take the last two seats. The Tories are already there, and UKIP may well be too given the swing they've seen elsewhere in the country since the poll was conducted last month.

LemonDrizzle
Mar 28, 2012

neoliberal shithead
Why are news organizations keen on zero hours contracts? They're only really beneficial to employers with very unpredictable workloads - I'd have thought a daily paper or newsdesk would have a very steady flow of work and so would be better off just giving people regular contracts.

LemonDrizzle
Mar 28, 2012

neoliberal shithead

Obliterati posted:

Given we're talking about UKIP, it would be interesting to note that surveys suggest UKIP voters aren't all disaffected Conservatives:

I think it's been said before that fascism is curdled socialism, but it might actually be possible to engage with these people sensibly from a left-wing position: basically Labour is to the right of its own base and people are turning to strange bedfellows. It reminds me of how in economic terms the BNP used to be to the left of Labour.
You have to take information like that with a huge pinch of salt because it doesn't tell you how much importance each group assigns to those issues. It may well be the case that, for example, Labour voters consider economic issues/inequality to be of overriding importance whereas they're secondary to other things (read: immigration) to UKIP voters. In practical terms, this means that it wouldn't matter if Labour/the far left had a perfect economic pitch for UKIP voters unless they also had a compelling message on immigration. Equally, immigration-focused voters won't care much that their economic preferences don't align with UKIP's if UKIP are the only highly visible party taking a hard line on immigration.

LemonDrizzle fucked around with this message at 12:06 on May 16, 2014

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LemonDrizzle
Mar 28, 2012

neoliberal shithead

no that wasn't thirteen years ago gently caress gently caress gently caress i'm old :(

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