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Sundae
Dec 1, 2005

Slow Motion posted:

2. Your writing income looks remarkably stable for a side gig (or any business, really). What makes you feel it's unstable? Is it from a single title or multiple titles? You need to make some best-case/worst-case projections on that income stream. Multiple titles are better in that regard as standard deviation is a square-root function.

Speaking as another self-pubber, there are two major considerations for the stability:

#1 - The largest player for self-published authors (and soon only player) is Amazon. All it takes is for them to decide to dick with indies the way they do trad-pubs and the marketplace can get lovely in a real hurry. They could also dick with the algorithms for searches again like they did a year or two ago and suddenly none of our old stuff can be found anymore. It happens.

#2 - Moana has a whole bunch of titles that sell fairly well, but Past Returns Do Not Guarantee Future Performance. You never know when a title is going to just flop for no clear reason, and it's more likely to do that than it is to skyrocket into the stratosphere for no clear reason. A few failed titles in a row and things can get a bit tight. Combine a few failures in a row with #1, and there could be a serious revenue crunch.


I think #2 is the more likely instability right now. Even if Amazon dicked with their entire royalty structure and cut it in half on self-pubs, (1) we'd still make more than most trad-pubbers, and (2) Moana's income would still kick rear end. #2 is the bigger worry, in my opinion.

Sundae fucked around with this message at 02:03 on May 26, 2014

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