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Cardiac
Aug 28, 2012

Good initiative TheFluff.

TheFluff posted:

Parties currently seated in the Riksdag
The sitting government (ruling since the 2006 elections) is a liberal-conservative minority coalition, consisting of Moderaterna, Centerpartiet, Folkpartiet and Kristdemokraterna, which refers to itself as Allians för Sverige ("Alliance for Sweden") or just Alliansen ("the Alliance"). It is headed by prime minister Fredrik Reinfeldt, who is the chairman of Moderaterna.

The parties that are currently seated in the riksdag are, in nominal order from the political right (traditionally the "blue" side) to the political left (the "red" side):

Moderaterna (the moderate party)
Last election result: 30.1% (107 seats)
Identifier: (m)
Chairman: Fredrik Reinfeldt (prime minister)
Formally Moderata samlingspartiet. Formerly a traditional European conservative party that valued things like low taxes, family values and defense spending, they rebranded themselves as "the new worker's party" in 2005 and won the 2006 elections after forming a four-party coalition with their fellow liberal-conservative parties. Their rethoric is sometimes curiously social-democratic, but they are a solidly neoliberal/conservative party that has been hard at work financing their tax cuts with selling off public assets during the last eight years.

Additions:
Came to power by triangulating the Socialdemocrats and by emphasizing labour and stable finances. They have effectively reduced the Socialdemocrats from a 35%+ party to a 30% and destroyed the Socialdemocrats hegonomy of Swedish Politics. Currently losing a lot of voters to Sverigedemokraterna, due to losing touch with their traditional voter base.

TheFluff posted:

Folkpartiet (the people's party)
Last election result: 7.1% (24 seats)
Identifier: (fp)
Chairman: Jan Björklund (minister for education and deputy prime minister)
Formally Folkpartiet liberalerna. Historically, these guys have always been liberals in the traditional sense (it's even in their party name). These days though they mainly define themselves by a few issues: most importantly, schools, nuclear power and NATO membership.

Additions: They have always been a mixed party with a basis in social liberalism. Known to be unfaithful in the politics and are likely to switch sides and party leader if Socialdemocrats come to power.

TheFluff posted:

Centerpartiet (the centre party)
Last election result: 6.6% (23 seats)
Identifier: (c)
Chairwoman: Annie Lööf (minister for enterprise)
Was known as Bondeförbundet ("the farmer's league") until 1957 and used to be a staunch ally of the social democrats, but has constantly marched rightwards politically since the 70's. On paper they're some kind of green social-liberal party but their rethoric in recent years has been almost libertarian at times. They really don't cater to the rural population anymore, but rather seem to focus on the economic elite in the cities.

Additions: Centerpartiet is truly a schizophrenic party at the moment, trying to cater to both city dwellers and countryside. They aim to be the green liberal party in contrast to Miljöpartiet, the green social party. They have tried to make themselves relevant in Stockholm, but are now (due to low support) going back to their roots.

TheFluff posted:

Kristdemokraterna (the christian democrats)
Last election result: 5.6% (19 seats)
Identifier: (kd)
Chairman: Göran Hägglund (minister for health and social issues)
A fairly new (formed 1964, entered parliament 1985) conservative party with the usual Christian moral values. Mostly notable for being the only Swedish parliamental party that opposes gay marriage. Has a solid support from their very small voter base and while they are sort of insignificant they are also unlikely to get voted out of parliament.

Classic Christian socialconservative party, and the only Christian party in Sweden, which is somewhat of an accomplishment given how secular we are.

TheFluff posted:

Sverigedemokraterna (the Sweden democrats)
Last election result: 5.7% (20 seats)
Identifier: (sd)
Chairman: Jimmie Åkesson
The local racist party; was first seated in parliament as a result of the the 2010 elections. As far as European racist parties go they're not quite as bad as some of their cousins, but the rethoric is the usual hate for EU, muslims, beggars and foreigners in general as well as waxing nostalgic for the social democratic golden age. Weirdly enough they keep voting with the alliance in the Riksdag though.

Additions: The local racist party that throws out all openly racist members.
Politically they are a social conservative party and similarly to Moderaterna and Socialdemokraterna, with the addition of reducing immigration.
Seen from a European and Scandinavian perspective they are complete pussies.
They have been growing rapidly since the last election, picking up voters from M and S, despite being hated by mass media, and are likely to be the deciding element between the blocks.
They are also the only party opposing increased immigration, something 49% of the Swedish population agrees with. Currently Sweden is taking on a heavy load of immigrants due to very liberal immigration laws, and is per capita the country in EU taking on most immigrants and in total only France and Germany takes on more refugees.
The immigration issue in Sweden is completly locked down and Godwin and the racist ca

TheFluff posted:

Miljöpartiet (the green party)
Last election result: 7.3% (25 seats)
Identifier: (mp)
Spokespersons: Gustav Fridolin and Åsa Romson
A pretty conventional centrist green party which first entered parliament in 1988. Obviously they're mainly concerned with environmental issues but on the side they have a rather liberal agenda, supporting private schools etc. They also have a reputation for harboring oddballs that believe in chemtrail conspiracies, anti-vaxxers etc.

Additions: The watermelon party, green on the outside and red inside. Their previous spokespersons were more liberal, but the last version have taken more of a turn to the left.
Favoured by journalists, where 40% of Swedens journalist say they favour the party.

TheFluff posted:

Socialdemokraterna (the social democrats)
Last election result: 30.7% (112 seats)
Identifier: (s)
Chairman: Stefan Löfven
The social democrats ruled Sweden mostly unopposed for decades during the latter half of the 20th century, with only brief interruptions. Occasionally they enjoyed an absolute parliamental majority on their own, but their last election result was their worst since 1920, which has triggered kind of an existential crisis. After switching chairmen three times in a few years their current strategy seems to be to say and do as little as possible in order to avoid rocking the boat. Nobody knows what they want these days.

Additions: They want to get into power and avoids rocking the boat to get there. They have basically accepted all of Moderaternas tax cuts and are trying to backtriangulate Moderaterna. A shadow of their former self, and there are no indications they will be as powerful as they used to be if they win the autumns election.

TheFluff posted:

Vänsterpartiet (the left party)
Last election result: 5.6% (19 seats)
Identifier: (v)
Chairman: Jonas Sjöstedt
Formerly the communist party; rebranded just the "left" party after the fall of the USSR. They're currently not very radical in their rethoric and are focusing on a single issue: stopping profits in the private-owned parts of public social services.

Additions: They are trying to pick upp disgruntled S voters that are unhappy with S triangulation of M.

TheFluff posted:

Parties of note outside the parliament

Feministiskt initiativ (the feminist initiative)
Last election result: 5.49% in the European Parliament elections of 2014
Identifier: (fi)
Chairwoman: Gudrun Schyman
A new-ish party focused on feminist issues, peace efforts and social justice in general. They won a major victory in the EU parliament elections this spring and got a seat there, but whether they'll get into the Swedish parliament or not is an open question. Their polling results aren't great.

Additions: Their chairwoman got kicked out of V due to tax fraud and continued her career by starting a new party. They are more left and radical than V, and their effect on the election is likely to be limited to sapping voters from V and MP.

TheFluff posted:

Svenskarnas Parti (party for the Swedes)
Last election result: N/A
Identifier: SvP
Actual honest-to-god nazis. They won't get any national parliament seats but might grab a few municipal seats in a few minor towns. Not really significant but they've been the subject of much political analysis.

Addition: 681 votes in last election, completly irrelevant for anyone besides journalists that invoke Godwin and try to associate them with SD by guilt of association.

TheFluff posted:

Hot issues
- immigration policy: (sd) keeps insisting mass immigration will end us as a nation, (fi) wants free immigration, everyone else is kinda waffling about it
- military spending: the Baltic region hasn't been this full of Russian military activity since the cold war and the recent forest fires have shown some alarming holes in the civil defense
- the schools; should the national government take back control from the municipalities?
- the reduced VAT for restaurants and other tax breaks
- environmental issues
- social justice and women's rights
- weapons manufacturing: we have this indigenous fighter jet (among other things) for historical reasons, but exporting weapons isn't a thing the political left likes
- infrastructure: car traffic is on the decline but we keep building horrifically expensive highways, and making the trains run on time again after the latest round of privatizations seems like a Herculean task

Currently, the polls are looking like the right-wing alliance will lose its government position and the social democrats will come back into power, albeit heavily dependent on the green party and the left party.

My analysis: They are all hosed.

S wants to get into power, preferably by associating with MP and hopefully FP. Since they lost the last election by taking a too large turn to the left they are now trying to be exactly like M. They are also trying to stay away from V. If S wins, there will likely be major chaos in the after-election negotiations, since there are major disagreements betwen S and MP. My bet S+MP+FP, where FP sells out the other parties in their ruling coalition aided by a change in party leader. They will likely not get a majority of the votes.
M+FP+C+KD are trailing S+V+MP in the polls by 10%, but are likely to recover some of it prior to the election. It is still not going to give them a majority of the seats, since M is bleeding social conservative voters to SD.
SD is probably going to do a better election than 2010, and might reach the position of third largest party. They are not going to get any influence after the election regardless, since some coalition have to be formed to keep them out.

I am expecting a Danish situation after the election, where S+V+MP are leading the polls due to people being tired of the current coalition. A coalition of these parties will not be able to fulfill their promises and there will likely be major controversies after the election, especially if they don't get a majority vote.
Meanwhile the cost of immigration is rapidly rising and will eliminate any space in the budget for major reforms.

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Cardiac
Aug 28, 2012

nagel posted:

Most articles seem to think that an Alliance split seems highly unlikely, especially since the usual alliance of S with FP and/or C support feels a bit weird, as M is closer to S policies than both FP and C.

FP and C have traditionally collaborated with S, and going back to that is not unlikely, especially if either party changes party leader.
One of the secrets behind the dominance of S (a party that only have had absolute majority once), is that S have bargained with various parties and been able to play them versus one another.

nagel posted:

My semi-educated guess is a S & MP minority government with silent support of V, and perhaps in certain issues, getting the votes of either C, FP or M, like the Alliance and MP in regards to certain immigration issues. They will be able to govern since the Alliance parties hates SD which will grab some 10% of the vote.

S+MP is pretty likely, however Sjöstedt, the leader of V, have explicitly said that if they are not part of the ruling coalition they will vote against it. Whether this is true when push comes to shove will be interesting to see. The resulting fallout will be hilarious to see.

nagel posted:

My predictions:
S will probably get some 32-35%, MP 9-12% (if S gets 35 MP will not get 12, and vice versa) while the left gobbles up enough to just make it around 48-49%, FI will get 3-3,9%

The alliance will get tops 40% with KD just managing to get it, I believe that they will be gone by 2018.

I'm more on the left side (voted FI in the Euros) and I like MP but I'm also pro-nuclear which is not at all very popular on the left. I'm also not loyal at all, this will be my seventh election (4 national, two euro so far) and I've never voted for the same party twice.

Pretty much the end result I see as well.
I believe Fi is hosed in the general election, since there are too many crazies in that party. The Euro election have sofar had alternative parties getting a lot of votes, since the number of voters are less and people doesn't care as much. This election was Fi, previous Pirateparty and prior to that Junilistan.

LemonDrizzle posted:

Are there any parties besides folkpartiet who are strongly in favour of expanding Sweden's use of nuclear power, perhaps without the "Folkpartiet vill... att det är privata företag som ska initiera och finansiera framtida nya kärnkraftsreaktorer" sentiment?

Well, both S and M are likely to be in favour of more or refurbished nuclear power plants, but have to get the support from minor parties which fucks it up, since both C and MP are pretty adamant versus more nuclear power. MP for once have said that they are going to close down one plant if they get in the ruling coalition.

Cardiac
Aug 28, 2012

His Divine Shadow posted:

As I understand it they started ruining their schools in the 90s with "free choice schooling" or some such, basically it allowed parents to decide where to send their children to school. Here in Finland and before in Sweden, where you lived decided where you went to school.
The natural result of this is that schools started turning into good schools where the rich sent their kids, and bad schools where the immigrants and other poors who couldn't afford or bother to send their kids further to good schools.
This is my outside perspective anyway, also they allowed private schools back then too, but I think the "free school choice" is considered the primary culprit in undermining the quality and equality of education in sweden.

Free choice schooling had little to do with the schools going down.
In the 90s, Göran Persson, then in charge of education, later prime minister, moved the responsibility of the schools from the state to the municipalities, which put local politicians with no education whatsoever in charge of the schools. The school is actually the major part of a municipalitys budget and for some municipalities they probably used some of that money for other purposes.
There were also no requirement for a teacher to have a teachers education, which devalued the profession. The authority of the teachers was also undermined, which caused problems with order in the class rooms.

Currently the situation is that we are separating students based on their parents education, since educated parents have no inclination to put their children in schools which lack order and good teachers. Traditionally the better students made weaker students better, but this is probably no longer the case since they go to different schools depending on their parents. School is still free in Sweden, so money has little to do which school you go to, and smarter immigrants send their children to better schools. Swedish schools are among the most disorderly in the EU, and schools in poorer areas have a failure rate of 80-90%.

Currently the left (mostly V and MP) say that "private" (they are not really private as per foreign standard) schools are bad, because they make profit and making profit based on tax payers money. Part of this is the current ruling coalitions fault, since they have been lousy (not only in the school) of making demands and regualating how things are run. Seriously, it took them 4 years before they realized they needed to regulate and control schools.

The whole school problem is a lot more complex than just free schools, and you could say that teachers wages, the quality of the teachers (especially within natural sciences), the (dis)order in the classroom, the working duties of teachers (which is a mix of teacher and social worker) are all important variables in the failure of the Swedish school. Currently many parties want fewer student per teacher, completly ignoring Sweden have among the lowest number of students per teacher in EU.

Cardiac
Aug 28, 2012

White Rock posted:

I wouldn't undersell the effect free choice schooling (Fri Skola) has had on the Swedish school system. The number of fri skolor has exploded since their inception with someone areas having more fri skols than municipal schools. Fri Skolor can say no to handicapped kids as well as underperforming and kids with mental disabilities, something that municipal schools can't. Schools run by hedge funds try to bait kids with free laptops and the rake in huge amount of profits. It's a bit hosed up to see public schooling as an industry as these people do.

It is not like the schools of the municipalities are so great either, just look at what happened in Kävlinge.
As for the problematic kids and the hedge funds, well that is just proof of how incompetent our current ruling coalition is at setting up controls and regulate things. This is not the only area where they fail dramatically with this.
I don't see any problem with schools making profit as long as they provide a good education. Enforcing schools to accept problematic children and having libraries for example are things that would reduce profit margins and would eliminate unresponsible companies.

Regardless, stopping schools from making profit is the lefts simple solution that is not going to solve anything at all.
There are a number of bigger problems (wages, recruitment, bureacracy and the competence of teacher) that are much more complex to solve, and these are not discussed as much since they don't fit so well into the ideology of the Swedish left.

Pimpmust posted:

That and often the Fri Skolor were once municipal schools sold out by local politicians on the cheap (very cheap) to either business-bros or other former-politicians. Something similar going on with homes for the elderly (and whatever else they can get their hands on).
Other fav: Outsourcing a lot of the Arbetsförmedling (employment agency/job centre) work to (a shitload of) private contractors on the taxpayers dime. The biggest scam running (not that it's entirely an invention of the current government).

Yeah, the current coalition have created an environment where private companies benefit from the taxpayers money. However I fail to see the difference from S, that have a long history of giving jobs to their own cronies.
As for Arbetsförmedling, no one gets any jobs from that anymore and some part of it might as well be outsourced.

It is kinda funny what the left is complaining about when it comes to privatization. They focus on healthcare and schools, while completetly ignoring construction (which is an oligopoly in Sweden) and private housing contractors for immigrants (that charge massive rates for housing immigrants waiting processing).

Ilustforponydeath posted:

In Sweden, a libertarian is someone who picks up a pound note from the sidewalk and doesn't immediately donate it to the nearest womens shelter.

Libertarians in Sweden wants minimal taxes, a nightwatch state, no government surveillance, free drugs and to download copyrighted stuff without fear of punishment.

Cardiac
Aug 28, 2012

Ali Alkali posted:

Sverigedemokraterna definitely has their roots in the countryside of Sweden, most famously in the agrarian parts of Scania but also in former industrialized, now abandoned small municipality's all over the country. Usually those places least affected by immigration the last hundred years.

This is just plain wrong.
Examples:
Almgården in Malmö has 40% SD, and they are right next to the most notorious immigrant area in Sweden, Rosengård.
SD got 24% in Landskrona in 2006 when it was known as Skånes Chicago and S was ruling. Mainly due to Kosovo-Albanians.
A interesting case is Sorsele that in the 2009 EU election got 1.24% SD and in this years election 13.4%. This is in the Västerbotten and in the middle of nowhere. Given the current rates of immigration we are stuffing immigrants in all empty places and Sorsele got a large contigent of Somalis. You can't really say that Sorsele got 10 times as many racists in 5 years.

Anosmoman posted:

If limiting immigration is an important issue to a lot of Swedes it might be sensible to give them an alternative to actual nazis to vote for.

And this is the actual problem and the reason why SD is going well.
They are the only major party opposing increased immigration, which actually 49% of the Swedish population agrees with according to SOM.
There is no party, besides SD advocating responsible immigration and the whole debate is locked down because no one wants to favour SD. Meanwhile we are taking in as many immigrants as during the Balkan war. The costs of immigration are getting high enough that no party will be able to finance any major reforms and we are among the worst countries in EU when it comes to integration.

Pimpmust posted:

Agreed, we should deport Bert Karlsson (ironically the guy that started up the previous version of our current xenophobic populist party; Ny Demokrati).

We should deport Bert Karlsson for a number of issues, including his music business career. Funny fact, he is making massive profits by buying up castles and old hotels and renting them for high rates to Migrationsverket. Another case where private contractors make money out of tax payers money.

Pimpmust posted:

As for the Arbetsförmedling, my point was that they should use the money to reinforce and fix that department rather than outsourcing it for even more money.

Arbetsförmedling have been a kind of joke during the last 20 years regardless of the ruling coalition. Both sides have fed it with money with little to show for it.

Jim Bont posted:

Also what's going to happen to Reinfeldt if the right wing loses, will he stay/who's likely to replace him?

He is hosed for sure. Likely candidate is Anna Kinberg-Batra, whose husband is a Swedish-Indian comedian. Mostly known for calling people outside of Stockholm idiots.
Regardless, there will be a massive debate within M after the election since they are losing a lot of their core voters to SD, due to Ms mismanagement of the defence and the immgration agreement with MP.

Cardiac fucked around with this message at 09:23 on Aug 14, 2014

Cardiac
Aug 28, 2012

TheFluff posted:

Do you have any source for these amazingly high costs of immigration that you keep claiming are such a problem?

http://www.svd.se/opinion/ledarsidan/migrationsverket-behover-48-miljarder-till_3820506.svd
http://sverigesradio.se/sida/artikel.aspx?programid=83&artikel=5934772&utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
And as I am sure you are aware of, they have already this year added 3 billion to support Migrationsverket.

TheFluff posted:

Because I'm pretty sure it's a myth. Financing a Swedish-born kid's child support, education, healthcare, etc etc until they start paying taxes is almost certainly more expensive than just teaching some Syrian Swedish and letting him run a pizza place, even if he fiddles with his tax reports.

Employment among foreignborn is 58%, Swedishborn 82%. Employment needs to be 72% to not be a burden for society.
After 7 years 50% of the immigrants have a job.

TheFluff posted:

Of course, I agree that the integration is a complete failure and so is the SFI program (Svenska för invandrare, teaching Swedish to immigrants) so there are definitely reasons to ramp down on immigration until we've fixed these problems, but I don't think "it costs us tax money" is one of them.

Yeah, integration is a mess in many ways and with lower volumes we should be able to more succesfully integrate immigrants. The jugoslavians from the 90s have been rather succesfully integrated.

Cardiac
Aug 28, 2012

TheFluff posted:

Also in today's news, the prodigal daughter of social democracy has returned: http://sverigesradio.se/sida/artikel.aspx?programid=83&artikel=5937921
After spending so many years playing hard-to-get in Brussels I kinda wonder what's she's up to now.

She was minister for 4 years in total and got sacked/kicked out by Göran Persson because she started to become popular. She really haven't made much of an impression on Swedish politics. But hey, I guess she will be foreign minister, since Eliasson is occupied in UN. Regardless, S desperatly needs people used to governing, 8 years away from power have drained the party of many old ministers.

Anosmoman posted:

You really can't expect someone to flee a civil war, leaving their entire social network and all earthly belongings behind, and just step into an alien society and start producing while their family at home is being bombed. I'm sure some can but honestly I would expect most to suffer from some form of depression and PTSD.
Part of the problem has been that we haven't realized just how severe some of these problems are and have failed to properly address them so it became a multi-generational issue. We need to be much more pro-active throughout the whole process but of course that require resources - and the political will.

You are Danish, right?
At least you have a working debate on these issues, even if you have the crazies in Danske Folkeparti. The whole immigration/integration debate in Sweden is completly locked down because no one wants to give SD any form of legitimacy. The rascist card and Godwin is used heavily to suppress any debate. Meanwhile they are carefully avoiding issues like islamic extremism (that seems to be loosening up thankfully), mutilation and forced marriages of young women and analfabetism, which are legit issues that we need to handle and discuss in order to integrate immigrants into Swedish society.

TheFluff posted:

You know that a majority of those costs will be constant regardless of how many people we actually let in, right? They're not caused by paying for those mythical welfare queens (because once they're in, they're not Migrationsverket's business anymore), they're mostly for taking care of the arrivals while handling their due process and telling them that sorry, nope, you're gonna have to go back. The costs are more associated with how messy the wars in the middle east are at the moment than anything else.

I am saying that the costs are rising, but I was surprised by 48 billion. From Migrationsverkets earlier report this year I saw the figure ~20 billion in increased costs for the coming 4 years.
To put this into perspective, the "big" reforms different parties are proposing at the moment have sofar been on the order of 1 billion. The government have already put in 3 billion so far this year to cover the costs of immigration.
You are correct that the figures only covers the cost of handling immigration applications, many of which are rejected, but the costs are increasing and doing it fast.
As for the costs after processing, that becames a responsibility of the municipalities, where the state only covers the costs for the first 2 years. After that, the municipalities takes over. Currently it takes 7 years for 50% of the immigrants to get a job. Who is paying for that if not the municipalities?
See below for a blog addressing these issues.

The question is not whether we should have immigration, which of course we should have, but how many?
Migrationsverkets own report says that the main flows of immigration comes from Syria, Eritreia and Somalia, where they first go to Libya, then get on smuggling boats across the Mediterranean and then finally ending up in Sweden, where the main point for entry is Öresundsbron. Tell me, when do you stop being a refuge and start being a economic immigrant?
Comparing the distribution of immigrants for the Scandinavian countries (and EU for that matter) shows how many more immigrants Sweden are taking on.

TheFluff posted:

Employment rates among foreign-born have been on the rise for the last ten years though, and they're rising faster than the employment rates among the native population. This is also a problem we still have to solve regardless of how many or how few people we let in.

If you call 58% from 57% a rise?

Taken from this blog https://www.tino.us hosted by a Swedish economist currently located in US.
An interesting blog since it covers Swedish immigration, integration as well as private schools and uses official facts, fully referenced in the blog. But I would expect that by someone who has published in PNAS.

His Divine Shadow posted:

Seems like there could be some kind of middle path that could leave both sides unhappy but at least grudingly accepting of a solution. But it's gotten so infected what with the "loving retard inbred hick fucks" and "goddamn inner city cunts who wouldn't know nature if a wolf ate them" type of rhethoric inflaming the issue.

A legitimate concern for people living in areas with wolves is whether you feel safe letting your children play in the garden. A number of family dogs as well as other livestock have been killed by wolves.
Wolves are predators and there is a reason why wolves in zoos are heavily locked in. As example, the wolves in Skånes Djurpark got loose in the park and killed some animals, and they ended up shooting all of them.

Cardiac
Aug 28, 2012

RajCooper posted:

Well i tend to agree with the "leftwing extremist are just as bad" argument. Simply because I went to a school close to an immigrant heavy area although this school had like 7-8 immigrants. We had quite a few Neo-nazis and the like. Some of them I've met on occasion and others I've just heard about but many of them are leftwing extremists now. They just confused their cause and continues with stupid violence "because they do it" which was the same argument they used in school when they were prepping for some immigrant beatings. hosed up people will be hosed up and do lovely things, not going to accept their methods because of some other equally retarded crowd exists. Anecdotal I know but they're the exact same kind of people that runs SD.

The leftwing extremist could as well be nazis in the right circumstances, since they are the same type of people with the same fascist disregard for democracy. They are there for the thrills and the adrenaline. The demonstration yesterday is a good example, 7 SvP was confronted by 2000 demonstrators, which predictably ended in a fight with the police.

If we look at Sweden, the nazis are a loving joke and get an extreme amount of publicity in comparison to how many voted for them.
681 votes last election for SvP, so we are really close for the nazis to take over. For our journalists they are a convenient scapegoat for smearing SD by guilt-of-association, which should hardly be needed.

As for how threatening the different factions are, the left-wing extremists are the bigger threat to Swedish democracy, followed by islamists, at least as valued by SÄPO. The left-wing extremists in Sweden are organized and are responsible for large amount of low-level harassment of political opponents. They are not only attacking nazis, but also SD as well as the mainstream political parties such as M, FP, KD and C. Ivar Arpi describes this in a article "Vänsterns fina, goda hat". The left-wing extremists have connections to mainstream media, (see Researchgruppen as an example).

Cardiac
Aug 28, 2012

Randandal posted:

Sweet! ID Card is in my wallet and assuming my local representative of Sweden isn't away on vacation I have a consulate within ten miles of me. Thanks guys, I really appreciate this, especially sleuthing out the Swedish websites with information unavailable in English.

Now I just have to figure out who to vote for, especially in my local elections... In Malmö. :negative:

Skånepartiet is the hilarious and also very rascist option. I especially like nr 3 here.


The current ruling coalition in Malmö is S+V+MP, where V have problems seeing political violence as a problem and S have problems explaining why there is a problem with antisemitism in Malmö. S recently changed the local leader, who was a pragmatic socialdemocrat to one of his underlings.

Cardiac
Aug 28, 2012

TheFluff posted:



:psyduck:

This woman's been in the news for the exact same reason several times before. It's a wonder (mp) doesn't kick her out. Reminds me of the almost literal tinfoil hats in Mora who almost got the local cell phone network turned off a few years ago.

Also, Cardiac, congratulations on your new avatar. Someone who followed the Scandinavia thread in LF seems to like you.

Well, that MP have a lot of nutjobs is hardly a secret. That have been the case throughout their entire history.
Some of the latest examples was one spokesperson for Grön Ungdom that wanted to ride around at shoot arrows in peoples heads,
http://www.unt.se/uppland/uppsala/gront-sprakror-vallar-social-storm-3309855.aspx
and Mehmet Kaplan, group leader i riksdagen that compared jihadists in Syria with volunteers in the Finnish Winter War. :stare:
http://stefanolsson.nu/2014/07/01/miljopartiet-liknar-jihadister-vid-frivilliga-under-finska-vinterkriget
If I were someone high up in MP, I would be really afraid about entryism.

As for my new avatar I am doing my part for keeping these forums going.
Making someone mad enough to pay 10 bucks for a new avatar is just hilarious. I am keeping it as a badge of honour.

Cardiac
Aug 28, 2012

Konec Hry posted:

You should, I love that the ~legacy of nils~ lives on.

I don't usually hang out in D&D so what is the ~legacy of nils~?
It sounds kinda interesting.

Norrskensren posted:

I am still trying to decide what to vote for. I've been an expat for the past nine years and even though I read the papers fairly regularly I feel like I have no idea what's going on in the motherland. Probably because I read the papers fairly regularly. After taking a couple of "Valkompassen" tests online I've had parties such as PP, FP and SD suggested to me. The SD result was puzzling to say the least, it was the second most compatible option according to DN and I don't know why given that I'm not anti-immigration and ranked immigration issues as unimportant to me on the priority scale. Given how I ranked the issues I would have expected MP to top the list but I guess I am too much of a right-wing nutjob in all other areas but the environment?

As it is, I would really like to buy myself a cabin (fritidshus) in northern Sweden to give myself a home when I am back and rent out when I am not to earn back at least a fraction of the loan payments. My suspicion is that the party/block most likely to gently caress me over with taxes for doing that is S and the other red-greens, so out of self-interest I should probably vote for a party in Alliansen but I just don't know. Maybe it's time to sit down and actually read the manifestos...

Well, MP is like a watermelon, green on the outside, red on the inside. Compared to their latest pair of spokesmen they have taken a step to the left lately, partly due to the current left wave in Swedish politics.
As for SD, besides immigration, their politics are in the middle between M and S, ie more socialist than M, more right-wing than S. In contrast to S and M they promise a lot of reforms since they allegedly will be able to have more money by limiting immigration.

In your case and out of sheer self-interest I would suggest C, since they are the traditional party for people living in the countryside. They are currently doing weird mix of green politics with neo-liberal ideas. Other option would be KD, since they are stalwart against high property taxes (despite it being one of tools to prevent the coming house bubble).

Cardiac
Aug 28, 2012

Randandal posted:

We could change the laws so that new construction is encouraged but I don't know how to do that

Apparently that is what the ruling coalition promised today in the manifesto for the election. Apparently they are going to make sure we build 300k houses/apartments until 2020. Interestingly they have doubled the amount since they started talking about it during Almedalen.

Pimpmust posted:

My two economy teachers happened to be real estate brokers during the 90ies crisis (explains why they aren't in that business anymore :v:) and man they had some fun stories to tell.

I "look forward to" crashing prices and interest rates in the 15-20% range :vince:

(my parents had just bought their first house during all that, fun times)

Maybe in time for the next oil price shock.

Well, too high interest rates will crash the economy. When we got the 3M loan for our house, they did a stress test of our household economy, where the high interest rate we should manage to be eligible was 7-8%. This was our banks stress test of our house hold economy.
From what I have read about Stockholm, higher interest rates will force people in Stockholm to leave their apartments and houses.
One could argue that the ruling coalition have deliberately avoided doing anything about the housing prices since it would upset their hold on Stockholm.

Cardiac
Aug 28, 2012

lilljonas posted:

For example, average SEK/m2 for sold apartments in Lund is 25 775. For Eslöv, a small town some 10 minutes away by train, it's 8 739. In Hässleholm, a whopping 35 minutes away (so basically another galaxy), it's 5 767, almost a 5th of the Lund prices. So if you are ok with settling for taking a train every day, you can still afford to live in Sweden.

Who the gently caress wants to live in Eslöv, otherwise known as the most boring town in Sweden (also ironically the birthplace of Johan Glans) or Hässleholm, which is a colossal poo poo hole (I spent 10 months there during my military service).

You are sort of missing the point, the people that wants cheap apartments in Lund are students and they hardly wants to live outside of Lund/Malmö for obvious reasons.
But housing prices in Lund are kinda ridiculous, I live just outside Lund and I wouldn't afford a similar sized house in Lund.

Part of the problem with the lack of cheap apartments is the immigration, we have currently 10k immigrants that are still in Migrationsverkets care, since there are no apartments available to put them in.

Cardiac
Aug 28, 2012

White Rock posted:

Nooooooooo, not really. This is not what SD want's off course. But that is the whole point of the SD's party's whole "new image" kinda thing.

First, let's have a history lesson. This is reccomended reading and it's full of all kinds of fun stuff: http://expo.se/www/download/sds_vitbok_Expo_2_2014.pdf

Off course SD reformed!

Cause EXPO is a completely impartial agency that don't consist of crazy left-wing extremists? Also financed by LO.
Google Tobias Hubinette as one example?

Also, you can apply the exact same approach on V. The same party that consistently have had party members advocating violence as a tool in politics. Sofar this year they have been forced to expel a number of party members.

White Rock posted:

SD's new image is a smoke screen. It's nothing more then a thin facade that is digestible enough that we can't easily swat it away by pointing at their SS symbols. They want to be accepted and taken seriously, as the racist party that doesn't poo poo on the carpet, and it that they have been pretty successful.

You believe in space lizards as well? It is almost like you think that SD will start wearing uniforms and saying heil hitler if they become the majority?
The hardcore racists in SvP and Nationaldemokraterna.

White Rock posted:

Here, read this site, just read one full page and come back and tell me that SD is not a racist party:
http://www.interasistmen.se/

Kawa Zolfagary is hardly an impartial observer.

White Rock posted:

Hey, just to be clear, i think that integration is an important issue to. SD is not the party to deal with this. Fixing integration will probably end up costing more money in the short term then it currently does, something SD is 100% against. Their very presence is killing any debate and willingness to deal with the issue, everyone is too afraid to be associated with their terrible terrible politics.

Pretty much, yes.
Hilariously, SD integration fixes are pretty bad and are heavily reliant on wishful thinking and severely decreasing the amount of immigrants.
But, yeah, SD is locking down the whole immigration/integration debate since no party dares to approach that area.
I personally blame M for the whole situation, since they should have made a deal with S 4 years ago about about sensible immigration politics and effectively locked out SD and MP.

Also, this was refused as a commercial for SD in DN and multiple other newspapers. Please tell me where the racism is here?

Cardiac
Aug 28, 2012

Based on answers in this thread I am not at all surprised D&D contains a non-ironic Marxism thread.

TheFluff posted:

This thing uses weighted bayesian averages of a bunch of different polls and historical data and is pretty cool, at least from a nerd perspective.

Polls of polls are published on these sites:
https://status.st SD-heavy though, but contains all polls.
https://svenskopinion.nu Only poll of polls updated.

It seems pretty likely S will do one of their worst elections ever.
Interestingly MP have decreased since the summer, so I guess not all publicity is good publicity.
The Alliance is gaining in the polls as expected, but what is interesting is how M is not gettting any of it.
C is getting a large boost from Annie Lööf. If you want to see a bitch-fight, google Åsa Romson vs Annie Lööf on Svt.
SD is in all likelihood going to be the third largest party and it is going to be interesting to see how big their Bradley factor is. As an example, VALU misjudged their votes in the EU-election by 2%, where typically they only have had errors of tens of percent.

Regardless, they are all utterly hosed without exception.
This is probably my first election where I feel utter hatred versus all parties.
M and the alliance for creating a situation where they don't have money for the next couple of years due to the immigration issue (something that have been an open secret since the last autumn) and their complete disregard of any sort of quality control of their reforms.
S for not having any ideas, except make-believe jobs and tax the rich and magically we will have money.
MP and V for being utterly out of context with reality.
SD for pointing at an existing problem, but by being full of rascists fucks completely locks down the discussion.

Nidhg00670000 posted:

I have a friend who is giving off strong vibes that she'll vote SD. When pressed on this, her prime motivator is "to prevent more gang rapes", because apparently that's just what immigrants do.
She is half iranian. :ughh:

From an older poll among Swedish Iranians apparently 16% considered SD to be the best alternative. They are also apparently strong among Christian Syrians in Södertälje.
I have also seen polls where SD have a higher percentage foreign born voters than immigration-friendly parties like MP, FP and V.
On the other hand, SD could have a monkey as party leader and still get votes as long as this stands.
Result:

and cause:
http://meritwager.wordpress.com/201...asylmissbruket/

Cardiac
Aug 28, 2012

Rutkowski posted:

Nazis from SvP stealing election lists in one part of Sweden and nazis from SMR attacking election locales around Stockholm. But nope, fighting their presence on the streets makes me anti-democracy.

If you fight nazis on the streets with actual violence and it is not a case of pure self-defence, you are by definition doing political violence and is thus anti-democratic.
The rest of us democrats would just have ignored them or called the police. It is really that easy.

SVT posted:

En grupp nazister uppträdde våldsamt i en vallokal i Kärrtorp på valdagen.

Ett tiotal personer, vilka polisen tror är nazister, tog sig in i vallokalen på Kärrtorps gymnasium vid 16.30-tiden.

Enligt polisen ska de ha ”slagit sönder något” och sedan lämnat platsen. Det är oklart om någon kommit till skada.

En förundersökning med brottsrubricering ”otillbörligt verkande vid röstning” har inletts.

Nynazistiska Svenska motståndsrörelsen tar på sig attackerna, enligt organisationens hemsida.

Även i Enskede och Alvik
Det finns också rapporter om att nazister kommit till åtminstone tre vallokaler i Stockholm under eftermiddagen.

– De har varit i Kärrtorps gymnasium, Enskedefältets skola och i Alviksskolan, säger Eva Debels, kanslichef vid valnämnden i Stockholm.

De ska ha kastat konfetti, säger hon och tillägger att polisen larmats.

Truly a major threat to the Swedish democracy.

Cardiac
Aug 28, 2012

Jordbo posted:

I don't understand the widespread support for SD - with these numbers it's hard to dismiss them as "the nazi party". 15 percent of swedes aren't loving nazis, so why are they voting for them? I understand they put some focus on the elderly and pension, but who other than the elderly votes for a clearly, fundamentally, xenophobic party?

Because:


And our political parties utter ignorance and suppression of the problems of immigration.
As well supported by massmedias utter lack of journalistic integrity.

Seriously, anyone that have been following the debates on Flashback can't be surprised by this.

Cardiac
Aug 28, 2012

Alert: Massive :smug: post coming.

First: The election result is just :laffo:.
Second: Anyone with an unbiased view on Swedish politics would have seen this result miles away. This little echo chamber is pretty far from reality, which have just been demonstrated by the election.
Third: I was right in my predictions regarding the election :smug:.
Fourth: Thanks for the avatar, I have really earned it.

To reiterate my first post in this thread regarding the Swedish political parties:

They are all hosed.

Let me for each actor explain how they are hosed:

S
They have made a marginally better election than last time and Löven gets to be prime minister. However the election result is on the same level as the 2010 election which was considered a catastrophe. Löven is gonna form a weak coalition and the infighting will be glorious. How S will avoid losing voters to SD is going to be interesting, since S is going to collaborate with MP. Voters that went for S in the hopes that S would solve the immigration crisis are in this case going to be in for a nasty shock. Tradionally, S and M both contains a lot of voters negative to increased levels of immigration.

V
Despite an election where they could focus on a popular issue they remained at the same election result as 2010. Hard to see it as anything else than a failure.
Also, they are pretty hosed in getting into the ruling coalition, since that will make collaboration with FP and C impossible.

MP
If it wasn't for the fact that they will be a part of the ruling coalition, their election result is a complete and utter failure.
To remind you, this is the party that have been contending with SD in the polls as the third largest party. In reality it was not even a competition.
Their election result is lower than last election, just confirming the view of MP as the feel-good party (or the Arsenal of Swedish politics). I guess S is pretty happy about the weak result for MP however, since it will make ruling easier.

FI
:laffo: :smug:
Hello, goodbye. Thank you for making the left throw away 3% of their votes. Fi botched their chance and is doomed to oblivion since Schyman is not getting any younger, next election she will be 70, and behind her there is nothing except idiots hiding behind the equality slogan.
Fun fact: In her home municipality Simrishamn, Fi didn't even qualify for the ruling body.

M
Actually a surprising good result in the end despite losing a shitton of voters to SD. Reinfeldt was smart enough to hand in his resignations before the long knives came out.
He is personally responsible for pushing his socialconservative core voters towards SD through his immigration agreement with MP, the failure in keeping close reins on Migrationsverket and his complete failure when it comes to the Swedish defence. If Reinfeldt had been less confrontative versus S in these issues, SD would have been marginalized.
I guess the slogan "It is the economy stupid" didn't work.

FP
Surprisingly a really bad result which I didn't predict. The failure of the schools must have weighed heavily on Björklund. It is also important to note that FP have in the 2 prior elections tried to make integration a issue by Språktestet and Burkaförbudet. This time these voters went to SD. Björklund is hosed and will resign before long.

C
A worse result than 2010, which was a pretty bad result at that time.
In the polls they have however been tethering on the edge of 4%, so in that perspective they are slightly less hosed than the others.

KD
Probably the party least hosed by this election. Didn't lose so many votes compared to last election, and those they lost were probably votes from M making sure they stayed in the Riksdag in the 2010 election.
Hägglund is hosed, and it will be interesting to see which way they go now.

SD
The clear winner of the election, which will still be hosed by the end result.
I predicted 10-11% and was surprised by 13%.
Anyone still thinks that 13% of the Swedish population are racists or is there a simpler explanation? (Note: Trick question)
As after the previous election they will not get any direct influence, however they will have an indirect role. Especially on the municipal level, where they will upset the power balance.
How the ruling coalition will avoid losing voters to SD is going to be interesting, since S will be the major recruiting platform for SD.

Botten ADA
http://bottenada.se/blogg/ gently caress Bayes I guess :shrug:

Polling institutes
:laffo:
I guess throwing the dice would have been better. With the exception of one institute (http://status.st/) they have all been laughably wrong in predicting the election result.
The underestimation of SD and overestimation of MP and V does not paint a nice picture of their algorithms.

VALU Exit Poll
Hello Bradley Factor. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bradley_effect)
This used to be the most accurate prediction of the election result with errors in the sub-percent regime.

Mass media
So if you have missed it by now, Swedish mass media is like a little duck pond, where 10% per cent of the journalists live in the same area in Sweden (Söder), 4 out of 10 in Stockholm, belong to the same social class and vote 40% for MP and 20% for V.
Truly a basis for impartial and truthful reporting. It is basically like a hive mind.
Their massive hate towards SD have locked down the immigration debate by the constant application of the racist card and Godwin, all the time ignoring problems regarding immigration.
The collaboration between Expressen and Researchgruppen (RG, former AFA-Doku) is pretty much the low point of this, where RG consists of condemned left-wing extremists that call themselves the Swedish STASI and which have been mapping people political opinions. With the help of Expressen they hacked Disquis and deanonymized both politicians and private citizens, where in one case one of these were attacked by a bomb in his home. For this they were awarded Guldspaden, a major journalistic award. Hilariously, they have been hacked themselves, and their user list released on Flashback, showing a lot of journalists using their services as well as Thomas Bodström.
Furthermore, the release of Åkesson private banking statements and possible gambling addiction is another low point and begs the question how far journalists are allowed to go when it comes to personal integrity.

If this election have showed anything is that massmedia is pretty powerless at changing peoples opinions and they have eroded peoples trust in them due to unbiased reporting.
The consequence of this, in combination with the coming global death of many newspapers will prove to be interesting in the coming 4 years.

Summary
We have a Danish situation coming in Swedish politics, where the ruling coalition will be weak and where S and MP will be forced to go back on a lot of their promises opening up for glorious and hilarious infighting.
As long as they don't solve the root cause of SDs success, S will lose a lot of voters to SD. Whereas Alliansen will regain a lot of voters, since at least they were a stable ruling coalition.
You have to give Reinfeldt this, he have managed to break the back of S and they are in all likelihood never going to get back to their old glory.

Cardiac
Aug 28, 2012

Ligur posted:

Pieces like these, and I've seen plenty, don't make it sound like everything is as peachy as you claim. And why the gently caress should any municipality put aside empty apartments is beyond me. That said, sounds like Vaxjö gladly receives the immigrants, all the immigrants, but more money should be ponied up to handle them.

My municipality sold off all commonly owned apartments a couple of years ago, probably to avoid having immigrants weighing heavily on the economy.
What is not discussed here is the fact that the municipality takes the cost for the immigrant 2 years after he settled down (first 2 years are financed by the state) as well as the cost for his relatives, which are allowed to come even if the immigrant can't support them. Given the fact that it takes 7 years for 50% of the immigrants to get a job, it is easy to see how they are a financial burden for municipalities.

Cardiac
Aug 28, 2012

Ligur posted:

Also the money the state uses to finance it's policies was originally taken... from the taxpayers of your municipalities.

In Finland we had some kind of pro immigration drive some 10 years ago while we had a few peak years, and they had this dude in television explaining how immigrants bring MONEY! It had arrows and poo poo which explained that a new immigration center brings 10-20 jobs, and arrows showing how for the first 3 years money flows from the state the municipality! Everyone profits!

It was ridiculed to no end, because the "free" money which the arrow showed flowing from state to municipality is just our loving tax money. For a small, poor municipality leadership it might sound good for the first few years, but your average citizen doesn't think state money is free magic sky money.

Sweden, literally 10 years behind Finland.
http://www.dn.se/nyheter/sverige/tjanar-over-en-halv-miljard-pa-invandringen/
http://www.tino.us/2014/06/rapport-om-sandviken-invandring-lonsam-finstila-om-stat-och-landstingens-kostnader-exkluderats/

How is it going with your flow of immigrants to Finland?
I read you increased your level to 1050 a year (incidentally half the amount of immigrants Sweden gets per week).
You are truly a utter racist state and you should be ashamed of yourself.

Cardiac
Aug 28, 2012

Ligur posted:

We get about 20k +/- something a year. IIRC, with some variations, about 20% have a work permit, 25% are students, 30% are family members of someone who lives here, and the rest are asylum seekers and a smattering of others.

Asylum and quote refuges are only like 3k people for 2013 according to migro.fi.

Ligur posted:

Don't worry man, we have enough people who think we are racists and should be ashamed of ourselves so that's covered. So do the Danes. So do Norwegians. Probably now Swedes too, because 15% voted Hitler to power. Horribly bemoaning the state of your particular Nordic social democracy and how xenophobic everyone is (except for you, of course, and your like minded friends) is a universal passtime in certainly aligned political circles.

My statement was ironic, if it wasn't obvious.
The difference between Finland/Norway/Denmark and Sweden is that those circles consists of 7 of 8 political parties.

Cardiac
Aug 28, 2012

nagel posted:

Didn't most of us here, despite being (seemingly) left leaning, predict over 10% for SD? Didn't a lot of believe that Fi would have a hard time getting into Parliament? Didn't most of us worry about a red-green majority being hard to get? I must admit that I did not see MP doing so poorly, as well as being surprised by the strong finish by the Alliance.

Well judging from the last couple of pages people seems rather surprised and horrified by the number of votes for SD.
It also sends a message to other parties going something like this:
"We are really worried about immigration and integration and no one cares about our fears, so our best option is to vote for a party that used to consist of neo-nazis and that have major issues with racist party members".
Pretty much a lack of faith in the mainstream political parties.

As for Fi not getting in, it is kinda sad, cause it would have been hilarious. They make V and MP look like sensible parties.
The red-green majority was not going to happen, since the sitting coalition is likely to increase in the final stages of an election, simply due to being a known quantity.
MP fell through in last election as well, so maybe not so surprising.

Star posted:

Yup, the only really surprising thing with the results is MP. The rest is pretty much as the polls indicated, with a very small increase in actual SD votes but not a significant amount.

2 percent wrong is not a very small increase, that is 20% relative underestimation. Pretty bad accuracy for the polling institutes and VALU and tells you something about the failures of polling by the telephone.

Cardiac
Aug 28, 2012

Rutkowski posted:

More like; the immigrants help create a demand(housing, in this example). As such, in a free market economy the companies should be lining up to build apartment blocks, giving the builder industry a lot of money and employing more people, both those who were here before and newly arrived interested and trained in the field. New blocks require more stores, more infrastructure, more everything. Economy grows, refugees get a safer place to live and so does those of us who are homeless, looking for home, about to be homeless, living on couches, living with parents and so on.

But since liberal market economy/free market is bullshit they're not building homes so they can continue to rack up rents and raise the demand. And the homes they build are too expensive for most of the people needing them and at the same time they force gentrification on the few areas where people with less to no income at all can actually live.

Holy poo poo, this thread have moved fast during the last week. Also LOL at Sweden having a free market economy.

As for the cost of immigration, this was published in DN 2009 and promptly forgotten when SD came in 2010.
http://www.dn.se/debatt/arbetskraftsinvandring-hjalper-inte-offentlig-sektor/
The positive economical effects of immigrants is apparently minimal given a similar employment level as native Swedes.
This basically says that the whole argument of immigrants being a future source of prosperity and wealth is wrong.
Best case scenario is +/-=0.

Cardiac
Aug 28, 2012

Karpaw posted:

http://www.sydsvenskan.se/kultur--nojen/petter-larsson-sd-har-fatt-en-present-fran-hoger-och-kommer-att-fa-en-fran-vans/
A good piece on how SD's success is a result of our neoliberal consensus and how this election sets the stage for them expanding their base even more from S.

Well, he is correct in one thing, S are pretty hosed if they don't realize why SD got 13%.
I also like his answer, let us talk about something else and then immigration won't be a problem.
Cause that really worked so well during the last 4 years.

Cardiac
Aug 28, 2012


The author of the SvD-article is one as well so....

http://www.tino.us/2014/09/fores-oroa-er-inte-gamla-hederliga-dynamiska-effekter-gor-asylinvandring-lonsam/

Meanwhile NY Times is promoting the SD agenda.
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/21/opinion/sunday/syrian-refugees-nordic-dilemma.html?_r=1
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/17/opinion/swedens-fraying-tolerance.html

Cardiac
Aug 28, 2012

White Rock posted:

See, This is why nobody "takes the debate" with SD supporters. It's bashing your head on a wall, a wall that spews semi overheard unsourced bullshit and racist factoids. Just gonna get a bloody forehead.

Hmm, or is it the other way around?
If you follow Flashback you probably know what happened when SSU decided to fight rascism on Flashback, which ended up with them either getting banned for ad hominem. Emotional arguments only get you so far, and that is where the debate in Sweden has ended up.
http://sverigesradio.se/sida/artikel.aspx?programid=3182&artikel=3479663

Simply because the arguments have dried up. First we had the argument that we needed immigrants to replace workers when people retired, which have proven to be false, then we had the argument that says immigrants will render a net profit, where we in the ideal case only goes +/-0 and now we are left with the argument that we save people fleeing from war, where in reality it is only the immigrants that are wealthy enough to pay 100k that comes to Sweden.
Expecting all SD supporters to be stupid rascists (even though some clearly are) is pretty ignorant.

White Rock posted:

So the new government was announced, S + Mp, I guess all the flirting cross the block didn't work out. V seems to want to cooperate, we'll see how much they can pull on the "no for profit welfare" promise.

Well, for C and FP to collaborate with S+MP would be the death of them.
Hard to critisize them since MP did exactly the same after the last election when they refused to support Alliansen in order to make them a majority ruling coalition.

Cardiac
Aug 28, 2012

White Rock posted:

Hahaha hey cardiac, good to see you. You know I've been pretty good with following up your your avpixlat link dumps with sourced responses, but you tend to disappear afterwards. And also it's late. But here is a perfect example of what I'm taking about!

So did you give me my nice avatar? Just want to know who to thank?
Also I just checked your post history in this thread, and I can't find any sourced links disproving my links. But I might have missed them?

Also, LOL at a thread defending Joel Bjurströmer Almgren. If you are 34 years and still find the need to wear a knife and fight nazis in the streets, I would say you have made a number of stupid decisions in your life. You people are aware that he could just as easily have been a nazi if he hang around with other people. History is full of people like him ie young violent men without hope.

White Rock posted:

Unsourced claim nr 1.
Unsourced claim nr 2.
Unsourced claim nr 3. Also people with money can't flee from a war?
See you can't just declare an argument dead without no backup.

Well, hello someone that have been following public debate.
Also, I have supplied links for these statements in this thread taken from varying sources including Svt, DN and other places.
Of course I read Fria Tider, Flashback and Avpixlat, since it provides additional information and typically all articles are sourced there. Our newspapers are hardly unbiased, which the treatment of Arnstad, Researchgruppen, SUM, MMRK and now lately one boss at SR clearly shows. Not that it matters in the long run, since in a couple of years a number of major Swedish newspapers will be dead.

White Rock posted:

As I've said before, if I theoretically believed that cutting immigration would save a third of the budget and was the key too lowering unemployment and fixing integration and the economy ( like in Sd imagination ): I would be right there with you.
I'd be running naked down the street with a tiny Swedish flag up my butt.
I still don't see Sd s politics doing anything but maybe, maaaybe making it so there is no beggar outside of the coop. Wooooooo

Cutting immigration or rather getting immigration down to something approaching European levels, is going to happen sooner or later within the next 4 years, regardless of SD.
Inside sources within MV speaks of a coming meltdown. We have something like 12k people in storage just waiting on getting apartments.

But I totally agree with you on SDs economic policies. They are just LOL and consists of wishful thinking.
Regardless, we are taking on more immigrants than we can integrate by work and apartments and that is a purely political decision.
The levels can be adjusted by political decisions which is clearly evident by the number of immigrants to our Scandinavian neighbours.
If this situation continues we will probably have a French situation with immgrants into their third generation of unemployment and being outside of main society.

Cardiac
Aug 28, 2012

SVT posted:

Här följer hela ministerlistan:

Stefan Löfven (S) - statsminister
Åsa Romson (MP) - klimat- och miljöminister samt vice statsminister
Margot Wallström (S) -utrikesminister
Morgan Johansson (S) - justitieminister
Anders Ygeman (S) - inrikesminister
Isabella Lövin (MP) - biståndsminister
Peter Hultqvist (S) - försvarsminister
Annika Strandhäll (i dag ordförande i fackförbundet Vision) - socialförsäkringsminister
Gabriel Wikström (S) - folkhälsa-, sjukvård- och idrottsminister
Åsa Regnér (tidigare bland annat generalsekreterare för RFSU) - barn, äldre- och jämställdhetsminister
Kristina Persson (S) - strategi och framtidsfrågor samt nordiskt samarbete
Magdalena Andersson (S) - finansminister
Per Bolund (MP) - finansmarknads- och konsumentminister
Ardalan Shekarabi (S) - civilminister
Gustav Fridolin (MP) - utbildningsminister
Aida Hadzialic (S) - gymnasie- och kunskapslyftsminister
Helene Hellmark Knutsson (S) - högre utbildning- och forskningsminister
Ibarahim Baylan (S) - energiminister
Mikael Damberg (S) - närings- och innovationsminister
Mehmet Kaplan (MP) - bostads- och stadsutvecklingsminister
Anna Johansson (S) - infrastrukturminister
Sven-Erik Bucht (S) - landsbygdsminister
Alice Bah Kuhnke (MP) (generaldirektör för Ungdomsstyrelsen) - kultur- och demokratiminister
Ylva Johansson (S) - arbetsmarknadsminister.

And there was much rejoice.
Wallström, Romson, M.Johansson, Andersson, Bolund were all pretty obvious.

Interesting parts:
Note that there is no minister for immigration nor for integration. On the other hand, either position is more or less suicide on a political level so....
We are getting 3 ministers for education, Fridolin along with one for gymnasie and one for higher education/research. One was apparently not enough?
Shekarabi has a history of fraud within SSU and we will see how long he lasts.
Kaplan have said jihadists in Syria is the same thing as Swedes fighting for Sweden in the Winter War during WW2. Have connections to MB, and have been a member of SUM, an organisation that have problems not inviting antisemites and fundamentalist muslims.
Baylan was kicked sideways into energy, which is somewhat expected since he is if anything loyal to the current agenda.
Hultqvist is probably a step up from what alliansen had as minister of defence and looks initially promising.
Also, Alice Bah :stare:

Cardiac
Aug 28, 2012

Xoidanor posted:

Weren't they just plain getting rid of the ministry of integration and immegration and moving its responsibilities?

Apparently this is something that is going to be handled by all ministers, which in a way is sensible since integration is dependent on people getting work and places to live.
Bonus feature for S and MP is that they won't have a minister that gets trounced by Åkesson in debates.

Another way of looking at it is that S and MP are trying to hiding away those issues by not having ministers directly responsible for it.
Which would be kinda stupid and sort of missing the point.

Cardiac
Aug 28, 2012

Postorder Trollet89 posted:

Alice Bah and Mehmet Kaplan. It's the biggest gently caress you to SD i've seen thus far. A noteworthy fact is that S as is typical gets all the decisionmaking departments where the money has to pass through. MP won't get much done in this cabinet thats for sure.

I am noticing that you didn't mention either Shakarabi, Hadzialic or Baylan as part of your "gently caress you SD"?
Also, why should SD dislike Alice Bah, she is according to all of their definitions Swedish? That promotion is going to be hilarious regardless, since now a former host for children TV programs is going to be in charge of culture politics. Hmm, I wonder whether she also has been doing cocaine as another host for child TV did.

Kaplan is problematic, since he has been involved in organisations tied to MB and other anti-democratic movements, none of which are representative of muslims in general. Noteworthy is that he is MP and not S, who apparently have better internal control which the whole Omar Mustafa affair showed. S is in all likelihood better at handling entryism than MP.
For more information on the various islamist organisations in Sweden, Flashback have a pretty good thread. https://www.flashback.org/t2202762

Cardiac
Aug 28, 2012

Postorder Trollet89 posted:

No thanks on that flashback thread. This is the muslim group he was part in making: http://muslimerforfred.org/

http://sv.wikipedia.org/wiki/Svenska_muslimer_f%C3%B6r_fred_och_r%C3%A4ttvisa

They sound just awful! ewie.

I like how you dismiss that thread directly.

As for Kaplan, he has been a member of Sveriges Muslimska Råd, closely affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood. This is the same organisation that Helena Benaouda was chairman for.
She is known for saying that there are no islamists in Sweden. Meanwhile her daughter is married to Munir Awad and they were both captured on trips to Somalia and Afghanistan along with Mehmet Ghezali, the former Guantanamo detainee. Munir Awad now spends his time in Danish prison after his attempted terroristattack on Jyllandsposten.
Kaplan was also a member of SUM, an organisation that consistently have invited antisemites and other extremists.

As for your organisation name, well, the Church of Scientology does the same thing and it really says nothing. As an example we have MMRK (Muslimska Mänskliga Rättighetskommittén).
http://magasinetneo.se/artiklar/lat-islamisterna-bilda-ett-eget-parti/
These organisations and other are connected in a web, which is detailed in the thread I supplied.

You don't see a problem when islamists form organisations that present themselves as spokespersons for all muslims, when they in reality only are spokespersons for a small minority?

Svartvit posted:

Can you back this up by something other than a thread on a notoriously islamophobic web forum?

That thread stands on its own, if you would have bothered to read the latter parts. That thread is basically a compilation of news regarding islamist organisations in Sweden.

Cardiac
Aug 28, 2012

Xoidanor posted:

S, V and MP have finally decided on how the private welfare sector will be regulated in the coming years. Björklund is not pleased to say the least. :v:

http://www.dn.se/valet-2014/bjorklund-avvisar-rodgron-uppgorelse/

Well, it will have to pass Riksdagen as well, so one could say that S is acting pretty smart here.
Do an agreement with V to get support for the budget (which doesn't need a majority to pass, only more votes than Alliansens budget), start a commission for an investigation of the private welfare sector which ends up as a proposition, which might then get shot down by Alliansen + SD => S have managed to pass a budget as well as neutralized a sensitive subject since it is not S fault the proposition didn't pass.

Of course, this might all crash depending on what happens with the budget.
Considering what happened last year I wouldn't be surprised if Alliansen would gently caress around with the budget in a similar way that S+MP+V+SD did last autumn.

Cardiac
Aug 28, 2012

Rutkowski posted:

Problem with that is that they've already said they'll vote for a new budget. If the alliance do so and SD votes for them they can't do a takeback, we'll have a government crisis and Löfven will resign.

Pretty much this.
For all of Löfvens talk about cross-party agreements he sure haven't done much to keep FP and C happy.

But the current course is probably (for the S+MP coalition) the most sensible.
They know that their budget, supported by V selling out, will have the more votes than the former Alliansens budget, and thus should pass.
If they can't get their budget through and Alliansens passes, they will lose all credibility and might as well resign and hope for a reelection.
It looks more and more like it will be a chicken race, which is pretty depressing but will provide some hilarity at least depending who folds.

Cardiac
Aug 28, 2012

uno.mannschaft posted:

I don't think a revote is in SDs interest. If they made the government go down they would have an actual political act to be judged against. Right now they're the third biggest party in Sweden without having ever had any direct involvement in policymaking, why would they risk that. If they made good on their threats they could start a shitstorm that could backfire on them. 13% and cruising for 4 years is probably looking pretty good for them.

No direct effect on policymaking is not true, which we saw during the last 4 years.
SD have, along with S+V+MP, voted down several of Alliansens proposals as seen during last autumns budget proposal.
Part of the reason Alliansen was seen as passive last term was simply due to them having no majority in Riksdagen, and they didn't put forth proposals that would get shot down.

The current situation is that Alliansen will vote for their budget, which they have been very clear about. It is also the only budget Alliansen will propose until next election. If they back down on this, they are basically saying to S+MP "Go ahead, we will not be an effective opposition for 4 years" and leave walk-over.
This ends up handing all the power to SD, who now are in a position to gently caress with either side and which is also the position they want.
This is also the only time they will be able to affect the budget during these 4 years (since there will be no competing version in other years) and expecting them not to wave their dick around is kinda naive.

There are 2 equally viable scenarios for SD, either they vote for Alliansens budget or they abstain.
In first case, they effectively render the sitting coalition powerless and thereby forcing a political crisis.
The possibility of that ending up in a reelection is kinda remote, since we have no tradition of it and we have a long history of weak sitting ruling coalitions (just look at 77-83).
A reelection is kinda risky for everyone, and while SD might lose on it, there are equal chances that they might gain on it. Especially since all of the other parties are behind the current immigration system (whereas among the public ~45% wants lower immigration rates (see SOM) and only 15-20% wants higher rates).
In the second case, SD will abstain in their votes saying both sides are equally bad, and then spend the rest of the 4 years voting down any major unpopular proposal by S+MP+V like the school reform or profits within the welfare system. In this case, they might gain voters from S and grow further.

Regardless, I think the way S is going with the budget proposal is the only viable way, since if they can't get their budget through Riksdagen, they are pretty hosed as a ruling coalition.

Cardiac
Aug 28, 2012

Benito Hitlerstalin posted:

Apparently Åkesson is going on indefinite sick leave.
:psyduck:

Postorder Trollet89 posted:

GOD HATES SD! jaja.
Edit: Seriously though, read his stupid letter on his stupid facebook page. What a loving crybaby.

Considering his schedule during the election campaign and the pressure put on SD and him personally, this is hardly a surprise, cause that would burn-out anyone.
In this he is no different than a whole lot of other Swedes.

Cardiac
Aug 28, 2012

Postorder Trollet89 posted:

Read the loving letter instead why dont you.
He blames media for being too critical of him and SD, he blames the political opposition for being too stressfull. He has spent the better part of the last 8 years making sure this was the playground he would be spending his time in, and now it's too much for him.

You have never been close to burnout, have you?
Cause this is as close to a classic case as it can be.
He has a newborn kid at home, he has probably rarely been home with his family during the last year, he is working all the time, he has loving bodyguards, he is vital for his party, he gets confronted by aggressive people on a regular basis. Anyone would burn out under these conditions and I am surprised we don't see more politicians burn out.

Cardiac
Aug 28, 2012

Xoidanor posted:

It's their polite way of saying that it's the first country that actually matters to recognise Palestine. :sweden:

Which Palestine have we recognized anyways, the former Jordanian part belonging to the PA or the former Egyptian part belonging to Hamas?
It is not like they are the best of friends...

Cardiac
Aug 28, 2012

Postorder Trollet89 posted:

You forget where our media is leaning politically.

40% MP, 20% V, 20% S among journalists.
Or in case of SVT, +50% MP.
The leading columns might be social liberal, but that is about it.

Cardiac
Aug 28, 2012

Ligur posted:

You guys seriously think your media is "right-wing"?

Well, they think since the leading pages are in general social liberal and they are owned by companies that have to make money that all newspapers are right wing.
The fact that 40% of the journalists vote MP (this actually switched around year 2000 from V, which used to have 40%) and 20% V, whereas these parties gather around 11-12% tells you something about how connected they are to the general public. Also, 40% of Swedens journalists live in Stockholm and 10% in Söder. It is basically a little duck pond, where anyone that sticks out is ostracized. Anyone believing this is a recipe for impartial reporting is incredible naive.
There are countless examples on Flashback detailing the hypocrisy of Swedish journalists, and ironically the rapid growth of alternative news sources like Flashback, Fria Tider and Avpixlat is due the loss of confidence in Swedish journalists.
On a side note, Swedish newspapers are currently going through a massive crisis, and before the next election Svd will be gone, and maybe GP as well. The rest of the newspapers will also be in bad condition. This is however a global phenomena.

V. Illych L. posted:

Schibsted owns almost all major national and regional dailies in Norway of any quality (they do not own VG and Dagbladet, but lol at those two). They're an enormously influental actor in the Norwegian media market.

You are aware that Aftonbladet (with for example Åsa Linderborg) and Svd are both owned by Schibstedt.
Schibstedt obviously don't give a poo poo about the politics of a newspaper as long as it earns money.
They bought AB, where LO(?) had the condition that the leading pages and culture pages should be determined by LO/SAP.

Rutkowski posted:

So 60% social liberal, 20% social democrat and the newspapers are owned by right-wing companies.
But yeah media is totes left-leaning.

Well, from your unique point of view I guess everything is right-wing.
Also, left-wing newspapers have been such a success right?
Without pressstödet most of the remaining ones would be a distant memory.

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Cardiac
Aug 28, 2012

Captain Scandinaiva posted:

It could also be that their profession, researching phenomena and happenings in society, mean they become biased in a certain direction. ;) But seriously, first of all, the question posed in that study from 2011 was "What party do you prefer today?", that's not the same thing as being a die-hard supporter or even voter of that party. Secondly, the answering frequency was about 60% I think. For instance, 356 journalists who worked in the field of politics answered the poll. There were also only slightly more answers from national news outlets compared to local papers. But I do agree the large concentration of media to Stockholm is a bad thing. That's how the free market wants it though, so welp.
I also love your little predicitions and I hope this thread will be around long enough that we can go back and check them. :allears:

Nah, journalists are as much followers of group think as other groups, the only difference is their ability to propagate their world views which is obviously different from the common man.
Reading an article within an area you know, shows how little most of them know. As for the support of MP, there was an article earlier this year, where it was shown that MP got no critical articles within the span of a couple of months. This lack of investigation into MP have also made them less vetted than other parties and it really shows up now when they are part of the ruling coalition.

But I wouldn't call journalists die hard believers in a political cause, I would rather describe them as feel-good activists that describe themselves as good and therefore their opinions must be good and others bad.

As for my predictions, there is a good thread on Flashback following this for Swedish newspapers. https://www.flashback.org/t1946234p238
As always, some filtering of morons is necessary.

Xoidanor posted:

Let me remind you that ETC has been selling their paper for almost a year soon and that they're still growing in subscribers.

Haven't ETC had a rather interesting approach in getting money out of the environment?
Would they be able to go on without state support?

Xoidanor posted:

There is not a single Swedish newspaper to which this doesn't apply. This is also largely why everyone has been panicking about our new minister of culture, they expected some kind of hint to how the investigative journalism of the future is going to support itself and they got nothing.

AB and Expressen don't get pressstöd as it is given to secondary newspapers. Svd would have died a long time ago without it, which is kinda ironic given their leading pages.
As for the future support of the investigative journalism, it seems kinda hosed. The money that is required to keep Swedish newspapers on the current level requires a vastly higher pressstöd, which is not going to happen.

Alhazred posted:

http://sv.wikipedia.org/wiki/Avpixlat#Avpixlat_i_svensk_samh.C3.A4llsdebatt
http://sv.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fria_Tider
So living in Stockholm makes you biased, being a racist shithead just makes you "alternative".

Anyone reading a news source and not looking at it critically is incredibly naive. This also applies to main stream news sources.
The infamous Sandviken report by PWC published in DN is a good example of this.
Also, living in Stockholm makes you biased since it is more or less a gated community surrounded by water.

Ligur posted:

Heehee, is this a Swede lecturing anyone from any other place about fearing "the other"? :D If you want to find a place where people are more hostile to those who don't belong to your own reference group you'll probably have to travel to Middle-East.

As for fearing the other, the reason for the growing anti-semitism in Malmö is never really discussed for obvious reasons.

Ligur posted:

So it's ok to threaten him and his family with death because he is like Archie Bunker except a real guy.
Sure thing bro. (Also read about Fear of the Other above.) :haw:

It is interesting with the hate-talk on the internet. Swedish news sources had a campaign where they attributed this to SD-followers/Avpixlat and so on, but it kinda died out when it was shown that hateful comments/death threats was as prevalent among the left-wing as on the right-wing.

Ligur posted:

Uhhh, I'm not Marcus Birro. What the gently caress? No, I'm just laughing at Swedish public discourse.

Well, you are not alone in that. Although you don't have to live with this poo poo.

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